Isaac lashing the Keys; an eyewall is building

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

Share this Blog
44
+

Tropical Storm Isaac is steadily organizing as it lashes the Florida Keys with heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. Sustained winds of 44 mph and 41 mph have been observed at Molasses Reef and Sombrero Key, respectively, this morning. Radar out of Key West shows an increase in spiral banding, and the beginnings of an eyewall. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed its first pass through the center of Isaac near 11:30 am EDT, and did not find the pressure had fallen, or that the peak winds had increased. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a large and increasingly well-organized storm. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is quite good and increasing to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. Moderate wind shear and dry air to the south are interfering with heavy thunderstorm development on Isaac's south side. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least four people.


Figure 1. Morning reflectivity image from the Radar out of Key West radar shows the northwest section of an eyewall beginning to form to the southeast of the city.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions. Odds are, one of the two model solutions will turn out to be the correct one, and the NHC will be forced to make a substantial adjustment in their forecast track to the east or the west. Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding and drought relief over the South. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over Southeast Louisiana, where it predicts Isaac will make landfall. The ECMWF model, however, these heavy rains will fall more over the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia.


Figure 2. A hurricane forecaster's dilemma: which set of models is correct? The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly. Our two top models--the GFS and ECMWF--have 72-hour forecasts that are about 350 miles apart. The ECMWF forecast is not shown here, but lies just to the west of the UKMET forecast (white line.)

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola and Cuba relatively intact. It's large size aided this. Isaac is over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) with high total heat content in the Florida Straits, but is encountering moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is predicted to relax to the light range tonight as an upper-level anticyclone becomes established over the storm. This should allow for more substantial intensification after Isaac passes the Florida Keys. However, the total heat content of the ocean decreases for Isaac Monday morning as it encounters a relatively cool ocean eddy in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. If Isaac takes a more westerly track, passing due south of the Central Louisiana coast, the storm will encounter a modest warm eddy, which would aid intensification. The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.

Comparing Isaac with Ike of 2008
The current situation with Isaac is similar in some ways to that of Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike spent considerable time over Cuba, weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm. The storm couldn't put its energy into building a strong inner core, but it was able to build up its outer rainbands that were over very warm waters. This resulted in a major expansion of its wind field, with tropical storm-force winds extending out 275 miles from the center at one point. Ike was able to intensify into a Category 2 storm on its path towards Texas, and had an unusually low pressure for a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds--944 mb. That's a central pressure more typical of a Category 3 storm, but Ike could only manage Category 2 winds, since it had such a large chunk of the atmosphere to keep spinning. With Isaac's TS winds already extending out to 205 miles, maybe we'll see another Ike-type situation as it intensifies--the storm will have an unusually low pressure in order to keep a huge wind field spinning, but never make it above Category 2, since it will take so long to spin up such a large wind field.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Isaac is a very large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. The latest 3:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0 on a scale of 1 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 1 to 6. A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 50% chance of developing by Tuesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop late this week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles, arriving around September 2.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will be on either in the afternoon or evening on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1426 - 1376

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Quoting GBguy88:
There was a large area of submerged oil found in Perdido Pass in May. I'd post the link, but that's against the rules, yes? Easily found on Google.


I read where the oil was sampled and did not match that from the oil rig..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:


You just heard this from who or what source? Please, if you're going to post things like this, give an offical source. Facebook doesn't count. :)


http://kplr11.com/2012/08/26/florida-coastal-comm unities-evacuate-ahead-of-isaac/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
4 more posts til 1000!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1423. SykKid
Quoting GoMMedic:
Please leave this Blog and save all of the time it takes to IGNORE you. kid


convection is waning. what are you talking about
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just curious, what are some of the models seeing that would bring this storm to the west???? Our local news here in SETX said yesterday that we have a high over Texas that would protect us from Isaac. Is the high moving??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1421. JasonRE
Quoting caneloader:
I'm in Lafayette, Louisiana here.

Gotta start the 'cane prep (groan). Bad back, bad hip, bad arm. Gonna take my boat off the trailer and fill it halfway with water for ballast, then strap the trailer to one of the big oaks.

Haven't commented since Rita in '05, IIRC - just been lurking. Maybe this is a newer screen name I got during Gustav? I forget. Going to get gas this afternoon, because Lafayette isn't in high gear yet. Tomorrow will be a different story. My aunt in Thibodaux says the lines are already an hour long at Wal-Mart.


Good afternoon Caneloader. Lafayette here as well. Wondering if we should begin to worry at all with this system. Good luck with your cane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1420. dmh1026
Quoting sar2401:


You just heard this from who or what source? Please, if you're going to post things like this, give an offical source. Facebook doesn't count. :)
Try the Lee County Emergency Operations Center....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
And I wanted to add that a fellow blogger from Naples knowing my sitution has offered to help put the shutters up if needed. I thought that was worth mentioning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1418. guygee
Quoting pottery:

OK. Totally agree, but...

This thread has taken off on a Tangent.

The original point was the possibility (raised by Dr. M. ) of the storm raising the oil from the seabed, affecting the coastline.

Do you think that could happen ?
On a local scale, yes, especially where there is significant erosion in places where crude residue is currently covered by sediment. Is that a major concern in this potential developing disaster? no...the damage has already been done.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Quoting sar2401:


You just heard this from who or what source? Please, if you're going to post things like this, give an offical source. Facebook doesn't count. :)

haha sorry it wasnt facebook...... The Weather Channel... at the bottom of the screen it says Tracking Isaac and breaking news updates and it said Lee County Florida and Ft. Myers florida are mandatory evac
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1415. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
1414. ITCZ
Quoting sar2401:


You just heard this from who or what source? Please, if you're going to post things like this, give an offical source. Facebook doesn't count. :)



Lee Emergency Ops on Twitter confirms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Heres another of one of my forecasts


Too far west. But I've seen crazier things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1412. dmh1026
Quoting Doppler22:
Just heard Lee County Florida is having mandatory evac in some areas

The beaches, and Islands below FMB were on mandatory evacuation this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Masquer08er:
Was this announced?

Yes, the Superintendent did a robo call this afternoon with the announcement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1410. pottery
Quoting FLWaterFront:

Quoting presslord:
well...in all fairness to BP....much of the oil can now be found inside fish, shrimp and oysters...along with much of the Corexit...



We don't want to eat there either.


Good One! :):))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1408. ITCZ
Louisiana Governor @BobbyJindal will also be holding a conference at 3:15 discussing the state's emergency plans
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1406. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Just heard Lee County Florida is having mandatory evac in some areas


You just heard this from who or what source? Please, if you're going to post things like this, give an offical source. Facebook doesn't count. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Isaac is beginning to look like he did just a few hours prior to crossing Haiti/Cuba.

How i said earlier, it will be a monster cat.3 hurricane and he is heading towards New Orleans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1404. LargoFl
ROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST COAST AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINEL LAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLAND S...SARASOTA...
DESOTO...CHARLOTTE AND LEE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT TO 60 NM...BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT TO 20 NM...AS
WELL AS TAMPA BAY.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST
COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY
TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9N...LONGITUDE 80.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS FL. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT
18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH ISAAC WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
Anyone have a pic of the loop current location? If there is a warm eddy for Issac to run over they'll be problems...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1402. pottery
Quoting GBguy88:


I think a good deal of tar is a possibility, but I highly doubt that there's any actual liquid left out there. It would be a real shame to have the beach covered in tar balls, but on the up side, they are much easier to clean up than those huge pools of oil we were dealing with in the months after the spill.

True.
Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Recon Latest:
992 MB
65 Mph?


Why did the NHC bring Isaac down to 60 Mph? It was at 65 Mph, No reason to bring it down.


Simple reason:

It's impractical to literally find the peak winds in every storm, so they probably went with the value that was most widespread.

Anyway, I agree, the storm is intensifying in terms of pressure, overall structure, and convection.

HWRF was a tad over-aggressive, but maybe not by too much.

Add 10 to 20mb to the most recent HWRF for now, unless the storm starts to verify it.

Looking more like GFDL or Euro intensity for now, which is still 125 to 130mph landfall...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting quebecjimmy:
thanks for the great graphs and pictures everybody. and YES this is weather porn. there is something addictive about watching natures strongest forces kick into high gear.
And this is getting into high gear. stay safe and stay alert. and make sure you warn people not to take this lightly. remember the dud irene was supposed to be and the mess it left.
any amateur can tell this storm is getting organised and will be deadly.
STAY SAFE
bow-chicka-bow-wow
i.e. the hurricane variety
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1399. Caner
The circulation pattern on this storm is sooo large compared to its relative weakness, I cant help but think once it gets in the clear, with no interfering land, it's just going to take in a huge gulp of all this heat and moisture and rapidly intensify.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1398. sar2401
Quoting TallyWeather15:
What, if any impacts do you see Tallahassee getting? And when?


Depends :) On the far western GFS path, almost nothing. If it's Euro model and you are on the dirty side of the storm, TS force winds, a lot of rain, and the danger of spin-up tornadoes. Since the models and intensity forecasts are so far out of sync with each other, it's really impossible to do anyting more than guess. As to when, sometime between Tuesday morning and late Wednesday night, but that assumes that Isaac doesn't slow down a lot somewhere in his journey. Sorry, that's the best I can do. You can see why the NHC is in such a quandry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just heard Lee County Florida is having mandatory evac in some areas and in Ft. Myers
I heard this from the TWC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
You are very mis-informed, go take some organic chemistry classes and come back. True much of the crude will break down but the worst most carcinogenic compounds are very persistent in the environment. The cyclic hydrocarbons do not break down, those little molecular rings just clump together to form ever-more complex polycyclic compounds. Even when they are digested by bacteria or anything else, the metabolites are just other dangerous polycyclic hydrocarbons.

Just because we buried the problem in the deep ocean doesn't mean it went away...as usual we just put the load on future generations.


Wow...thats a strong post....looks like somebody studied in their Organic Chem class. Id give it a +1 if I understood what you were sayin!!! :) I have to give you the "W" in that battle!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You get fantastic analysis from Norcross and the Doc (although it would be nice if Norcross would let him speak)then back to Heather - "don't forget to bring your pets in, in this kind of weather".

Classic!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1394. bappit
It's a whopper!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EcoLogic:

Santa Rosa County, Fl (East of pcola) closed tuesday and probably wed.
Was this announced?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Bill Read, former NHC director, on Isaac: "So far the track and intensity of Isaac has fit rather nicely to what the GFS (and ECMWF) had been predicting. Now, however, the bifurcation of ensembles in the GFS runs that started showing up yesterday suggests that the steering pattern near the northern Gulf coast is very sensitive to minor changes in the data the initializes the model. This sensitivity probably explains the role reversal of the ECMWF shifting to the right most solution since yesterday, but I don’t have data to support the speculation. This model mess creates rather low confidence in any single solution which of course is unfortunate given the long lead time for decision makers in the region. And then there is the intensity forecast…

Back to your question. Not a zero percent chance on Texas but certainly still an outlier. The TS wind probability off the NHC (not GFS) forecast give a 15% chance for Beaumont and 8% chance of tropical storm force winds."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting presslord:
well...in all fairness to BP....much of the oil can now be found inside fish, shrimp and oysters...along with much of the Corexit...

Quoting pottery:

Well, yes!

But we don't want to go there......

:):))


We don't want to eat there either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1334.

I've taken some and worked at LSU's aquaculture center a few summers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 992mb.

Dropsonde released in the eye of Isaac has brought back an MSLP of 992mb with 7mph of surface winds. The splash location was 24.02N 81.69W. Isaac appears to be intensifying at about 2mb per hour, which would technically qualify as rapid intensification.


Yes, if it maintained that rate of intensification for more than 1 hour. Which it hasn't.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

OK. Totally agree, but...

This thread has taken off on a Tangent.

The original point was the possibility (raised by Dr. M. ) of the storm raising the oil from the seabed, affecting the coastline.

Do you think that could happen ?


If it does, I did some research and the furthest inland I could find for salt water damage to foliage was from a Nor'easter, not a hurricane, but salt water penetrated 30 miles inland. I couldn't find any similar hurricane related data but tossing residual oil (and there's lots) and Corexit 30 miles inland would be serious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneloader:
I'm in Lafayette, Louisiana here.

Gotta start the 'cane prep (groan). Bad back, bad hip, bad arm. Gonna take my boat off the trailer and fill it halfway with water for ballast, then strap the trailer to one of the big oaks.

Haven't commented since Rita in '05, IIRC - just been lurking. Maybe this is a newer screen name I got during Gustav? I forget. Going to get gas this afternoon, because Lafayette isn't in high gear yet. Tomorrow will be a different story. My aunt in Thibodaux says the lines are already an hour long at Wal-Mart.

Hey Cane. Lafayette here too. About to go get gas, for the generator too. Just in case. I have a feeling if the track holds or pushed further west we'll see Lafayette kick into high gear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1386. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
1385. GBguy88
Quoting pottery:

OK. Totally agree, but...

This thread has taken off on a Tangent.

The original point was the possibility (raised by Dr. M. ) of the storm raising the oil from the seabed, affecting the coastline.

Do you think that could happen ?


I think a good deal of tar is a possibility, but I highly doubt that there's any actual liquid left out there. It would be a real shame to have the beach covered in tar balls, but on the up side, they are much easier to clean up than those huge pools of oil we were dealing with in the months after the spill.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A look from GR2Analyst.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1383. Levi32
Here's the GFDL. It has Isaac taking its time strengthening as a still broad circulation in the central gulf, only going sub-970mb and becoming a Cat 2 just before running into Louisiana. This is the kind of solution that would pan out if Isaac takes a while to mix out the dry air still in his circulation.

What we're watching closely for now is the formation of a tight core with consistent convection at the center today or tonight, with hurricane force winds in the eyewall. If it can accomplish that tonight and be a strengthening hurricane going into the middle of the gulf, it could easily become a major.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Heres another of one of my forecasts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


And the mets on TWC keep saying the storm isn't intensifying?
Yet everyone in here says the opposite.


Busy eating doughnuts? Recon says different and I do trust them over TWC. Really it's why I don't watch the weather channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks for the great graphs and pictures everybody. and YES this is weather porn. there is something addictive about watching natures strongest forces kick into high gear.
And this is getting into high gear. stay safe and stay alert. and make sure you warn people not to take this lightly. remember the dud irene was supposed to be and the mess it left.
any amateur can tell this storm is getting organised and will be deadly.
STAY SAFE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1379. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
Quoting bappit:

How long do you think that they think it will take to intensify? And what intensity do you think that they think it will reach when it does intensify as you think that they think?
Quoting Drakoen:
Issac is steadily getting better organized. Good central dense overcast, poleward outflow, and evidence that the equatorward outflow is trying to establish itself.
Do you think its possiblr if it intensifies sooner than expected it could turn north and hit panhandle?
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
Quoting bappit:

Not found.


I apologize. I so rarely post here (read voraciously but don't post, since I'm less than a rank amateur with tropical weather) and have never used the WU "link" function before. Let me try again: Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1376. bappit
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Recon Latest:
992 MB
65 Mph?


Why did the NHC bring Isaac down to 60 Mph? It was at 65 Mph, No reason to bring it down.

Because the winds weren't high enough to keep it at 65 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1426 - 1376

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.