Isaac remains a tropical storm as it skirts northern coast of southeast Cuba

By: Angela Fritz , 9:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

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This afternoon, Isaac remains a tropical storm with little change in intensity as it moves northwest along the northern coast of Cuba, with winds of 60 mph. The storm's center is currently skirting the northern coast of southeast Cuba over the state of Holgiun. There is a hurricane hunter mission currently flying through the storm. The hurricane hunter mission and recent satellite images show that Isaac has maintained its core circulation, providing a launching point for new thunderstorm activity to develop. Isaac's strongest thunderstorms, which were on the southeast side of the storm just south of Hispaniola, have weakened somewhat this afternoon, as stronger thunderstorms begin to develop north of Cuba. A new burst of convection above the storm's center of circulation also began this afternoon. Upper level outflow is strong on the north and northeast side of the storm, though is weak and disorganized on the south and southwest. Wind shear around the storm remains 10-20 knots.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac as it moves northwest along the northern coast of Cuba on Saturday afternoon.

Impacts:
Heavy rain continues over Hispaniola this afternoon as the center of Isaac moves away from Haiti. Once person is confirmed dead in Haiti today as a result of Isaac and its torrential rain and flash flooding, though there are reports that up to three are dead in the earthquake and cyclone-ravaged state. Rainfall totals up to 12 inches are possible in Hispaniola when it's all said and done, with local amounts up to 20 inches, especially in the higher elevations of the mountains. Thousands of people have been displaced due to damage to their less-than-substantial tent structures, and schools and other more sturdy buildings have been opened for shelter while the storm continues to produce heavy rainfall over Hispaniola. Rain has begun to fall in the Florida Keys as the storm's far northern thunderstorm activity moves toward the state. Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for the entire state of Florida in preparation for the impacts of Isaac. The Republican National Convention has at least one attendee backing out so far: Alabama governor Robert Bentley has decided to stay in-state as Isaac approaches. Vice President Joe Biden has also canceled his trip to Tampa which was scheduled for next week alongside the Convention. Amtrak has also shut down part of their Silver Service line from Miami to Orlando.

Track forecast:
The GFS and CMC are favoring a track to the Mississippi/Alabama border this afternoon, while the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF are all forecasting tracks into the Florida Panhandle. The National Hurricane Center is in agreement with the latter forecast, though it's important not to focus on the center of the forecast track. Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to continue to skirt the northern coast of Cuba throughout the rest of Saturday, at which point it will cross the Florida Keys likely on Sunday, late afternoon. From there, Isaac is expected to move northwest until Tuesday when it will make a slight turn to the north. Landfall in the models has been coming sooner and sooner over the past few days, and is now expected Tuesday evening.

Intensity forecast:
In addition to the warm water that Isaac will continue to traverse over the next few days, recent model runs suggest that when Isaac leaves Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, it will be in an environment favorable for intensification. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have been forecasting a large upper level anti-cyclone, or "high," over Isaac as it tracks north through the Gulf. Also, surrounding the upper level high, there are several upper level "lows," that could act to siphon this air away from the storm quickly. These features would provide strong ventilation of the storm, which will likely enhance intensification. The GFDL and the HWRF are in agreement this afternoon that Isaac is likely to reach or come very close category 2 hurricane strength with winds around 95 mph by the time the storm reaches the northern Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaac to reach category 2 status by 2pm EDT on Tuesday. Given the evidence, I agree with this, and will go a step further to say that a major hurricane (category 3+) is not out of the question, nor is a rapid intensification. Lots of uncertainty remains as Isaac treks across northern Cuba. So many things depend on what form this storm will be in once it leaves that coast for the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.

Portlight gears up for Isaac

Our friends at Portlight Strategies are gearing up for Isaac as we speak. From their blog this afternoon: "John Wilbanks, a long time Portlight member and instrumental in many of the things we do will be heading to Panama City tomorrow afternoon along with a team from Yankee 1, a relief organization made up of retired miltary to provide relief services and SAR if that becomes necessary. John's website, Stormjunkie.com, will be streaming video of operations in the strike zone; you can see what Portlight's teams are doing here. We are also reaching out to the disability community in Haiti and rekindling old relationshps there in the aftermath of Isaac's passage of that island. With over 300,000 still displaced after the earthquake of two years ago, the need there will be great."

You can donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund here.

I also wrote a somewhat applicable blog this morning about model uncertainty in hurricane forecasting.

Angela

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5673. OracleDeAtlantis
6:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
I made two hurricane forecasts this year, one of these contained a curious connection between the Trail of Tears and the storm named "Kirk."

This could be taken several ways, but I would not ignore the interpretation that whenever we get to the name "Kirk," something big will happen, somehow linked to the Trail of Tears.

There's also one man that most Americans think of when they hear the name "Kirk." Considering that the real life "Kirk" died yesterday, this raises my concerns.







Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
5672. midgulfmom
5:47 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting midgulfmom:
say it ain't so.....what model?
duh.....just saw model in your post....wow...I'm reading to fast. Could you post pic please?
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
5671. midgulfmom
5:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting GetReal:
Am I reading this right (the eyes are old); GFS 968mb at mouth of MS river...
Quoting GetReal:
Am I reading this right (the eyes are old); GFS 968mb at mouth of MS river...
say it ain't so.....what model?
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
5670. hydrus
5:12 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Surfc Precipitable Water
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
5669. leftlink
4:45 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Here is a graph of the pressure in Key West. Should be below 29.50 very soon:

Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
5668. weatherganny
4:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
And me


How strong is that???
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
5667. weatherganny
4:37 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting tomas5tex:


Buna here also

Buna texas???
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
5666. RayT
4:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting victoria780:
I agree,if half these people here had half his knowledge it would be a shock.

yeah, as far as tropical cyclones go, this one has been one of the more challenging to predict.
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
5665. tomas5tex
4:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Buna here guys.....what a shift....lets see if this trend continues....I'll be doing a blog after the 12z suite is complete!!


Buna here also
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
5664. Maineweatherguy20023
4:16 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting snow2fire:
I'm glad they are taking Issac seriously in S FL. Remember Irene (98 I think). Thought nothing would happen around Miami. Public busses ran normally in am. As flooding started, they shut down trans, closed bridges to beaches, etc. Thousands of people got stranded. It wasn't pretty.

It does't take a cat3 to cause problems.

Irene was 2011 2005 and 1999
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
5663. txtwister78
4:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
I think this is a classic example of a "fork in the road" type of system with respect to track. Isaac was either going to catch the trough or it wasn't and it appears that now most of the models are forecasting it to miss it and so hence a more westward track (trend). One thing is for certain, the more west this goes, the more I am troubled by the amount of energy (ocean heat content) that this system has a potential to take advantage of in terms of spinning up rapidly as a very dangerous storm. I hope I'm wrong on that , but it is definitely something that people living along the central gulf coast should consider and plan for as Isaac moves closer in to the gulf.
Member Since: June 21, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
5662. LaHeaven
4:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
From the Evangeline Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness:


The 10:00 conf call with the NWS in Lake Charles advised the following:

TS Isaac is just south of the FLorida Keys. There is a HC hunter aircraft on the way to get updates. Isaac will probably drift further to the west and possibly make landfall in SE Louisiana Wednesday Morning. It may become a hurricane by late afternoon today.
Now is a good time to get prepared
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
5661. Maineweatherguy20023
4:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting 900MB:
They are still predicting 3'-5' storm surge for Tampa (no good for the RNC), what if the models start coming back East? They have been flipping and flopping for days, so I guess the pendulum may swing here again soon.

Very impressive storm, especially considering it has been stradling coastline for 500+ miles now.

If its doin the=is well near land i hate to think what it will be hundreds of miles from land...
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
5660. Chiggy
4:02 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
12Z Euro @ 102hrs - Galveston just about in the left eye-wall - WTF!!

Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
5659. AtHomeInTX
4:02 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Still over me...

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
5658. OviedoDuchess
3:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting treehuggingsister:
From our blog (originally written to help w/ Irene):

Full disclosure. major dad and I are veterans of major Hurricanes Bertha, Fran, Ivan and Dennis (along with others less significant in damage for us, but worth preparing for). Thanks to Irene visiting brother Bingley last year, I thought I would offer up what's worked for us in terms of preparation, both food-wise, house-wise PLUS some of the things folks don't know about, that make life bearable if those winds of almost-September come early. I hope you'll find something that you didn't know before. First up is the heavy lifting.

For Bertha and Fran in NC (Cat 2 and 3, 56 days apart in ’96), we only lived 10 miles inland, were on the eastern side of the storm both times (translation: got beat all to hell), never boarded up and did just fine. The most important thing we did, and have always done, is CLEAR THE AREA OF POTENTIAL FLYING OBJECTS. Anything and everything in our yard AND the neighborhood that could be turned into a missile (including that 100lb garden pot you don’t think can fly…it can), goes into the garage. Bertha came in during the daytime and, along around noon, we got to watch the neighbor’s metal shed explode and fly through our backyard at about 110 mph. That was the only thing we couldn’t control that day that went walkabout, and it would have killed someone if the wind hadn’t been parallel to the house.

How-To's for PLYWOOD BOARDING of your windows WITH PICTURES at my WunderBlog

Alright, shopping time.

IMHO and hard won experience, these are stores every single household should have (and you may already have much of it). Use your brain, based on the number and age of folks in your household.
Remember you are going to be HOT, cranky and exerting yourself in the aftermath if, GOD FORBID, the thing smacks you good.
Think of preparing for this as a picnic on crack. Take a good hard look at what you already have on your shelves first, add or subtract according to what you have onhand vs your particular needs/family’s tastes and then…

A Few Days PRIOR (three days out may be TOO LATE to find everything):

3 gallons BOTTLED water per person (for 3 days) minimum
enough prescription medication to get you through 10 DAYS if you take any
canned tuna/chicken/SPAM/shelf stable meats
those damned nasty vienna snausages
canned chili
beenie weenies
canned soups like “chunky” that don’t need water added
mayo/mustard/ketchup
bread (Get the one with the FURTHEST OUT SHELF DATE)
canned vegetables, like green beans or baby peas
kraft macaroni and cheese in a box
dry cereal
instant oatmeal
squeezy cheese
large jar(s) peanut butter
large jar(s) jelly
various boxes of crackers
instant coffee or tea
coffemate, dry milk or shelf stable milk
sugar, salt, pepper
juice boxes
instant potatoes (like a BIG box of “Potato Buds”)
whatever fresh fruit your family enjoys
butter or (gulp) margarine
dogfood/catfood if you have furry family members besides, well…
snacks and chips
canned or plastic jarred fruits, like cocktail or peaches
pudding cups
dish detergent
antiseptic hand soap
paper towels
paper napkins
plastic utensils (forks, knives,spoons)
paper plates
plastic trash bags
ZIPLOCK baggies, QT and GAL
DUCK tape
boxes of wooden matches
MANUAL CAN OPENER
large candles (and not really stinky ones) WITH a GAS LEAK, CANDLES CAN BE BAD. **SITUATIONAL AWARENESS** KNOW what’s going on.
bug spray, both yard and personal
A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO (that voice in the dark from the local TV station will be your BEST FRIEND, trust me.)
LARGE BATTERY OPERATED LIGHTS that will sit independently (hard to go to a dark bathroom holding a flashlight)
small flashlights
LED poplights are great
BATTERIES and SPARES that fit EVERY SINGLE THING YOU NEED BATTERIES FOR!!!
FILL YOUR PROPANE CANNISTER NOW (if you are on a direct gas hook-up, get a charcoal grill)
3 bags of charcoal
lighter fluid for the charcoal
CASH
CAR CHARGER for cell phones (ours were worthless during Ivan but I’ve heard they’ve come a long way, tower-wise…)
COOLERS for the ice (and the stuff that’ll come out of that fridge)
FIRST AID KIT which I bolster with additional Ace bandages, BandAids of every size and description, sterile wraps, tapes, Neosporin, hydrocortizone, anti-histimine pills, aspirin etc.
Little Coleman tanks if you have camping stoves or lights (as always, to be used OUTSIDE AFTERWARDS…DUH)
Old fashioned board games, playing cards, Mille Bornes, Yahtzee, books (especially with wired little ones)

Hold off on ice until the latest you possibly can, which is why it’s NOT on the “go after work TONIGHT” list. TOP YOUR GAS TANKS off while you can. You all will have to fight a ton more people at the pump than we ever did down here.

*DIRECT plug-in phone like a Princess type, if you have a PHONE COMPANY landline. Your multiple remote handset phone will not work when the power goes out, and your old fashioned one may very well get a call out on the substation batteries. See below.

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

When you’re ready to close the house up, LOCK YOUR GARAGE DOORS DOWN. If you don’t park in your garage, PULL YOUR CARS SNUG UP TO THE DOORS. They provide the most excellent wind baffle you can imagine and, considering the further up the East Coast you go, the less the doors are reinforced like ours here in the Panhandle, you will NEED every little bit of wind mitigation you can muster. You car insurance will take car of whatever Irene does to the vehicle.

This is doubly important because, contrary to the old wives tale about “equalizing pressure’, if those winds get into your garage, not only do they start tearing the garage to bits, they start LIFTING YOUR ROOF OFF. And then your whole house is a goner. The only house in our neighborhood to have the roof blown to bits during the 140mph+ gusts of Ivan was the ONE home where the owner had the garage door “cracked” opened to “relieve the pressure”.
************************************************* * ************************************************** *****
*What to Do Inside*

Get Your Important “Stuff” Together


Your papers, diplomas, etc. All those things that make your life identifiable? Those things your would rush out of a burning building with? If they’re not already in one place together, get them together NOW. And add one more thing ~ a copy of a utility bill, like electric or phone. If, God forbid, you have to evacuate and they work it like they do down here, that address on your drivers license WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT PROOF OF YOUR RESIDENCY. You HAVE to have a utility bill with THAT address and YOUR name in your possession to return to your home. Period. (Great evacuation tips here in the comments.)
Have a “plan”. WHO are you going to call when it’s over, WHO knows where all your stuff is if, God forbid, something happens. If you get separated, have a meet-up. In our family, it’s Bingster and me tag-teaming. He has all our info for both sides of the family (including Kcruella). When the batteries on the landline substations were still working the morning after Ivan, I got a call out to him, and that’s how everyone else knew we were okay. AT&T screwed the pooch cell-phone-wise here, so we have KEPT our landline, in spite of everything. Trauma dies hard.

What to Do With Important “Stuff”

You all will laugh, but I double plastic bag it, duct tape it…and put it in the dishwasher, then latch the thing shut and tape over the entire front control panel. It’s waterproof and even if one of those spin-up tornados takes a chunk of the roof, the documents of my life are going nowhere, because they’re bolted under the counter and DRY. Other middlin’ precious things I double bag up as well and stash in a rack-free self-cleaning oven and the dryer (duct-taping the door of that shut).

Potable Water

Make sure every single water toting vessel is clean and filled with filtered (if you can) water, from the sun-tea jar to the ancient Igloo softball cooler to tea kettle, and all the pitchers in between. This augments the bottled water on your list and is the FIRST water you use. (Make sure it’s COVERED to keep out bugs/dust.) As well, EVERY POT is filled to the brim with tap water for use as either coffee/tea/mac ‘n cheese makings or wash/rinse water, as well as pet drinking water. All that’s staged on the kitchen counters.

Get ALL Your Laundry Done

You can run out of underwear FAST and blow through some serious t-shirts clearing flotsom. Plus, the second the last load is out of the washer, fill it up on it’s largest setting with cold water and STOP it. Voilà. Another source of water for rinse/washing. (The washing machine also makes an EXCELLENT ice cooler if you are space challenged, trust me. Fill it with THAT instead.)

Bathrooms

Scrub EVERY tub SPARKLING With a bleach based cleaner. We use a piece of saran wrap over the stopper, then plug it to make absolutely sure there’s NO leakage, then FILL THAT SUCKER UP. This becomes both relatively clean water to dip out for a sink sponge bath AND the ALL IMPORTANT FLUSH THE TOILET water. (And is ONLY used for…well, not tinkling.) Speaking of which, it doesn’t hurt to have a “Tidy Bowl” beforehand, if there’s a chance the power might be out for DAYS, if you get my drift…
Now, you may get lucky and have a trickle of water like we did after Fran, but the water company may beg you not to use it, because they’re trying to find leaks, or it’s not potable or whatever. (Another reason to HAVE A REAL RADIO: PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN SAVE YOUR LIFE)

GIVE YOUR PETS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES TO “DO THEIR BUSINESS”. Once the front door shuts on the howling outside, it’s shut for GOOD. If it comes in during the day, we make meals a tad lighter and earlier than usual. The Scotties and Labradors have always seemed to know something big was on the way and their systems have responded accordingly, but, let’s face it: when you gotta go, you gotta go. So don’t force the poor things into that position in the first place. Plenty of available water, but schmaybe that big dinner/breakfast isn’t necessary, okay?

LOCAL RADIO STATIONS (as well as simulcasts from local TV channels or your local university Public Radio) WILL BE YOUR BEST SOURCE OF WEATHER INFO for your area, not to mention what’s happening as the storm whirls overhead. John Ed Thompson out of Fox10, Mobile, AL is a GOD in our household for what he did during Ivan. At 3 in the morning, when ~ to quote the Squid Terrorist on the walkie talkie from next door ~ it “Sounds like the Devil’s trying to beat my front door down! I’m fixin’ to nail 2×4′s over it and, if that doesn’t work, I’m breaking apart the china cabinet to use IT!”

Creature Comforts

While you’re busy as a bee, I always, ALWAYS recommend setting the thermostat on your A/C (while you have it) as LOW AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY STAND IT.

As in MEATLOCKER. Wearing SWEATS IN AUGUST cold. “But, ths, why?” you ask.

Because the second that power goes out and ALL those anxious people are still in your house in August breathing?

That temp is going to climb and F.A.S.T. And it will suck so bad.

And you will still have HOURS of storm to go, and schmaybe days without power. You’ll thank me.

The Refrigerator


We were sort of old school with this. As I told Bingley in the comments, this is what we’ve always done, and ONLY works with a mostly FULL FREEZER. Once we’ve gotten ice ~ usually three to four of the big coolers worth, then three stacked on each other, on a beach towel, covered with garbage bags, then blankets for insulation ~ we already have inventoried the fridge itself. When the power starts going dodgey, we’ll transfer all the perishables out of the fridge to the lone ice chest (milk, BACON, eggs, half & half, etc.) and shut the door FOR GOOD. That’s IT. No peeking, no forgetting, no going in for something ~ you want the fridge to cool completely back down. When the power finally gives up the ghost, we throw unopened, big plastic garbage bags over the whole fridge, then cover that with packing blankets or whatever you have. Wrap some duct tape around it and keep your paws off. Believe or not, that will keep all but the flimsiest frozen goods rock solid for at least three days. If you don’t have power by then, you can start defrosting stuff and eating it. *NEVER eat anything that’s partially thawed. Throw it out. (*CHECK FOR THIS THE SECOND THE POWER COMES BACK ON as well, or it’ll refreeze and you could easily get sick from it later, and be clueless why. Don’t take the chance.)

With your ice chests, just break them out as you need them, always keeping the extras covered. We had ice for a week and a half after Ivan doing it this way, and thank goodness. (The stack worked out great against the door when the winds were threatening to blow it in. Dual purpose! And good times…)

There is NOTHING like the comfort of knowing you did everything you could possibly do to prepare. It’s out of your hands from that point forward.

Have a cocktail.

It’s amazing how many knuckleheads who evacuated and watched the whole damn thing on TV came home empty handed, small children in tow no less! We were living like refugees and had to give THEM supplies.

DO NOT RUN OUTSIDE THE SECOND THE WIND SORT OF DIES DOWN

Trees will still be falling. On your gourd.

DO NOT GO LOLLYGAGGING AROUND AFTERWARD TO “SEE”

No electricity TO RUN GAS STATION PUMPS. No electricity TO RUN STOP LIGHTS. LIVE ELECTRICAL WIRES LAYING EVERYWHERE Flat tires upon multiple flat tires.

IT’S ANARCHY. STAY HOME.


Whip you up some coffee, scrambled eggs and lovely applewood smoked bacon sammiches on the Weber gas grill, like we’ve done the morning after EVERY hurricane.

It’s a good thing.


Excellent list of food choices...only one thing to add. During Charlie, found Wolfgang Puck coffee in cans that had heating capacity. A little pricey but a fresh cup of joe in the aftermath, priceless! And don't underestimate the value of bug spray - sooner or later, you'll have to come out of the pool, even if you have a snorkle and the skeeters will be waiting for you! thanks for the list.
Member Since: July 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
5657. AtHomeInTX
3:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
And me

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
5656. TallyWeather15
3:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting breald:
Wow, i guess FL might be spared of a hurricane landfall after all.
nyy chance it still hits the panhandle?
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
5655. AtHomeInTX
3:57 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
SWLA ouch

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
5654. STXHurricanes2012
3:57 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting SykKid:
isaac continue to struggle! excellent news as the GOM also has lots of dry air. heat potential will not allow isaac to bomb out either! awesome news for everyone

??
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
5653. GeoffreyWPB
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11401
5652. Bielle
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


A little wet out your way, Grothar?
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
5651. breald
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Wow, i guess FL might be spared of a hurricane landfall after all.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
5650. leftlink
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
moved to new blog
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
5649. entrelac
3:54 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:
how long does it take to evac houston????
With contraflow in place it will take at least 24 hours to evacuate the coast.

Lessons were learned during Rita that should smooth the process out, if necessary. Lessons like who needs to evacuate and who doesn't. The coast needs to get out but everyone else needs to stay put and ride it out.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
5648. Stormchaser121
3:54 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

78 hrs
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
5647. mobilebayal
3:54 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
This sure is getting confusing. I have no idea what to do. Being on the bay, I have so much stuff to secure. I start, then stop. Start then see a more westward move and stop. My poor old fanny is about to fall off!
Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1098
5646. gustaveye
3:53 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Hey Rick Knabb from NHC, some advice!!

the cone should include the gfs and euro models....you are saying they are 300 miles apart, but that entire area in the cone.....DUHHHHHHH
Member Since: August 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
5645. yonzabam
3:53 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wonder if people put too much into TCHP vs SST especially when Isaac is moving at a high forward speed. Look at Gordon for example, ended up as a 110mph Hurricane under low TCHP.



Quite possibly. I've seen storms go over TCHP hot spots without intensifying. Maybe it's a more significant factor for storms that are already very strong. High TCHP means the water is warm at depth. Strong storms stir up deeper, colder water to the surface and this acts as a natural breaking mechanism, limiting the hurricane's strength. High TCHP would mean that this breaking mechanism was less effective.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2955
5644. Stormchaser121
3:52 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

60 hrs
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
5643. SykKid
3:51 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
isaac continue to struggle! excellent news as the GOM also has lots of dry air. heat potential will not allow isaac to bomb out either! awesome news for everyone
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
5642. Stoopid1
3:51 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting treehuggingsister:


I'll never forget: At 6 o'clock Wednesday evening, Pensacola was still being told Ivan was "going to Biloxi"... a couple hours later, NOT!


Different scenario, but I vividly remember the day Charley came through. Right before I went to the store it had him going to Tampa and Jax as a 115 mph cat 3. Right as I come home, he's up to 145 mph and ended up going to Port Charlotte, Orlando, and Port Orange(where I lived at the time). Even toward the end, it's hard to say what a hurricane will do.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2752
5641. ILwthrfan
3:51 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not as impressive as I anticipated. 996.1mb.

152630 2340N 08057W 8431 01462 9961 194 161 054004 007 024 002


You think Cuba is still hampering the system. Or is it the dry air at the 500mb level in the gulf that the storm has untrained. It does seem to have the appearance that dry air is limiting the thunderstorms a bit? Maybe when it gets a bit more distance away from both Florida and Cuba inflow of moisture will be richer. Storm might be able to intensify better. Still looks if he still trying to finish building his CDO. After that happens, then we could possible see RI?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
5640. Matt1989
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
New gfs shifted even more west.. Now skirting the coast maybe to Texas.. so the gfs goes from Panama City yesterday morning to. Central la. In 26 hours.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
5639. southfla
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting treehuggingsister:
From our blog (originally written to help w/ Irene):

Full disclosure. major dad and I are veterans of major Hurricanes Bertha, Fran....


I find it absolutely hilarious that you go to extreme measures to keep the ice cream in your freezer frozen, but you never board up your house. Then you have the nerve to pillory your neighbor because they lost their roof due to a crack open garage door. Nearly every person on the edge of Andrew who lost their roofs did so because they did not board their windows. You have just gotten lucky. May your luck hold out.
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
5638. forecaster1
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Preparednes/Clean up tip #2. If you have the old style spinner vents on your roof? Place a hefty plastic bag over the vent pull it firmly over the vent wrap the excess bag firmly around the base, while holding firmly wrap with duct tape so that the tape overlaps itself. This will deflect any wind and will keep your old vent from flying off causing a huge leak in your roof.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
5636. AtHomeInTX
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Still a bit off shore here

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
5635. Hhunter
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
5634. bappit
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting Caner:
Uh Oh... We're in trouble now...

The Weather Channel is officially in 'sleeves up' mode...

I wouldn't doubt that is choreographed.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6092
5633. splash3392
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Here is a Link to traffic cams in the Keys.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 645
5632. jpsb
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:
how long does it take to evac houston????
Most of Houston does not need to evacuate. Galveston and Galveston Bay area does and that takes about 36-48 hours.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
5631. SETexas74
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:
how long does it take to evac houston????


Depends on how many people leave, certainly would be a mess though
Member Since: June 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
5630. CJ5
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
I am late to the game this am but it doesn't look like he imporved a whole lot last night. At one point thins were coming together and it looked he was about to blow up.

He finally has convection wrapping around on all sides. Good news for the keys but he has a lot of open water and some favorable conditions ahead.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
5629. Caner
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Here we go.

New GFS is nearing hte landfall phase.

Right hook?

Left like the 3 prevous?

or what?


Got a link to it?
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
5628. MiamiHurricanes09
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting weatherman12345:
How are you conditions as of now?
Light rain, winds are pretty calm with the occasional gust in the 15kt range.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
5627. snow2fire
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
I'm glad they are taking Issac seriously in S FL. Remember Irene (98 I think). Thought nothing would happen around Miami. Public busses ran normally in am. As flooding started, they shut down trans, closed bridges to beaches, etc. Thousands of people got stranded. It wasn't pretty.

It does't take a cat3 to cause problems.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
5626. treehuggingsister
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting gulfcoastmom:


I agree totally. I am starting to see it here though. People are starting to relax and not take it seriously. I guess they forget what happened during Ivan in 2004!


I'll never forget: At 6 o'clock Wednesday evening, Pensacola was still being told Ivan was "going to Biloxi"... a couple hours later, NOT!
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 188
5625. angiest
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:
how long does it take to evac houston????


Depends on if people panic or not. For Rita, people had images of Katrina fresh in their heads. Ike was smooth enough I don't think they opened any of the evaculanes (improved shoulders) or activated the contraflow that were all constructed after Rita.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
5624. Stormchaser121
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:
how long does it take to evac houston????

idk
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
5623. Gorty
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, they're still well removed from the most intense winds in the northeastern quad, I just expected to see an intensifying cyclone and it looks like Isaac has just maintained intensity.


He's still too close to Cuba and FL to intensify much right now imo.

I could be wrong though.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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