Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GetReal:


No RI for the next few hours at a minimum Taz... Look at the loops and you will observe that the south side of the circulation has been choked off by the Cuban mountain range to the south of Isaac.




ok
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Based on recent model trends, I think it is fairly safe to assume that East Central FL will get intermittent rain showers and a few squalls-basically just some rain. The area may very well experience a few tropical storm force gusts, which happens periodically during rainy season thunderstorms. The Keys may be in for it if Isaac can get its act together, or it may stay weak, just like Ernesto '06. Once it gets into the gulf, however, Apalachicola to New Orleans may be dealing with a hurricane (the first 7 years or so).


I think we'll get more than that. Not saying it's gonna be real bad but I think we'll have tropical storm conditions.
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Brian Norcross is on TWC now
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2118. GetReal
Quoting Tazmanian:



i new it may be a RI is under way


No RI for the next few hours at a minimum Taz... Look at the loops and you will observe that the south side of the circulation has been choked off by the Cuban mountain range to the south of Isaac.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
According to my google earth distance measurement tool, it is just 17 miles north of Puerto Sama, which is right on the north coast of Cuba.
and I believe international waters are something like 30 miles offshore so they only can get within 13 miles of the center.
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2116. WxLogic
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Which one are you referring to? The one impacting Chicago tomorrow?


The shortwave currently in Montana/North Dakota. Yeah... should be closing in in 24 to 48HRs... Is not that deep but could prevent further bridging of the central CONUS High and Bermuda.
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Based on recent model trends, I think it is fairly safe to assume that East Central FL will get intermittent rain showers and a few squalls-basically just some rain. The area may very well experience a few tropical storm force gusts, which happens periodically during rainy season thunderstorms. The Keys may be in for it if Isaac can get its act together, or it may stay weak, just like Ernesto '06. Once it gets into the gulf, however, Apalachicola to New Orleans may be dealing with a hurricane (the first 7 years or so).
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OK, jeez. Just look at this and speed it up

Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh

Were you the one that issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman's yesterday? ;)
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Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF ensembles:

eastern lousiana to the big bend area. the key will be how much the rebuilding ridge pushes isaac wnw before he starts turning north. your track is nice but mine is just west of yours. is isaac a rare storm or are these type of storms quite common?(ones that cross the Greater antillies into the gulf)
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According to my google earth distance measurement tool, it is just 17 miles north of Puerto Sama, which is right on the north coast of Cuba.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What's weird to me about it is I would think a gulf storm to our east would bring us a dry NE wind. Unless he's so big we'd catch the outer rains from him? He'd have to be really big. But what do I know? :)

If hes sucking up the FL mess than he will be BIG maybe not that big but still
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Quoting justsouthofnola:


did you look at the map?
isaac took a nw track over haiti, when he emerged, the storm took a wnw direction

Link


twc straight line graph gives a better view of the path.

the current loop does appear to be moving nnw i would agree


here we go again.....its west...........its north........its west...........its north..........mannnnnnnnnnnnn
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


thats not a good thing. lol the ants might know better than your average weatherman. NOAA had a blog this past week of how studies show animals can sense when a hurricane is coming.


Got a link on that article?
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Quoting atmosweather:
The interaction between Isaac and the disturbance to its NW is beginning to get pretty interesting now. Huge moisture field possibly coming together:



its clearly offshore
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh





its not overe land its this off the coast
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Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF ensembles:



Still plenty of spread in its ensembles. I want to see the GFS/Euro converge somewhere and stay put.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh




No it's not look at microwave.
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Quoting cat6band:
Where is Wunderkid??? I guess he finally threw in the towel...lol...he was on here for a week straight!! It's SOUTH....WSW....SOUTH SOUTH WEST...SOUTH OF WEST SOUTH WEST.....lol...He's great!!!


maybe he is on the phone arguing about them dropping the TS watch for the Caymans lol
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

I love it in Maine. I am never blasted for "wish casting" just sitting up here wondering where it will go. I am free to post my opinion and not get blasted it is really fun!!


Love Maine! My mother is from Manset (Mount Desert Island) and my brother lived in Portland for several years (my favorite city).
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Quoting cat6band:
Where is Wunderkid??? I guess he finally threw in the towel...lol...he was on here for a week straight!! It's SOUTH....WSW....SOUTH SOUTH WEST...SOUTH OF WEST SOUTH WEST.....lol...He's great!!!




stop picking on him no one is 100% right all the time
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Isaac may be far away now but this is what we got today here in santo domingo...
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Nice view of Isaac from the moment it entered the Caribbean.

Link
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS CROSSED THE FAR EASTERN TIP
OF CUB ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS NOW EMERGED ON ITS NORTHERN
END AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERNIGHT.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEPARTING 60-70KT JET THAT IS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS WHAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION...AND WHAT IS KEEPING ACTIVITY
ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION HAS REMAINED UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES ALL DAY...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MOST INDIVIDUAL ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER
THIS EVENING.

OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE JET INDUCED ACTIVITY AND
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OUTER PERIPHERY FROM ISAAC BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER OR STORM CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE BY DAYBREAK AS ISAAC REACHES FURTHER INTO THE
STRAITS AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS IT
TRAVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUNDAY...MOVES THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING ALL
THIS TIME OVER WATER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ISAAC TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE KEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME A CAT 2 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT 72
HOURS.

WHILE CHANGES IN TRACK MAY AFFECT THE EXACT ONSET AND STRENGTH OF
WINDS...THE LARGE SIZE OF ISAAC WILL MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...THE TREASURE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS...ALONG THE BREVARD
COAST...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH THE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL EASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

WITH ISAAC EXPECTED TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GULF INTO
MONDAY...SQUALLS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY
FLOODING RAINFALL. THE PATH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO KEEP EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN CONDUCIVE AREA FOR
TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON ISAAC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF ISAAC.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUES-FRI...LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH LATE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL TREND WILL
BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AS ISSAC PULLS AWAY BY MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS INCREASING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS NORTH OF KISM-KTTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARDS OUT OF THE REGION. ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HORUS...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING SOUTH OF KMLB TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE OUTER
RAINBANDS FROM TS ISAAC BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION. EXPECT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN SQUALLS AND SUSTAINED WINDS FROM MID
SUNDAY MORNING ONWARDS AS ISAAC APPROACHES FLORIDA. ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD CONTAIN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAAC MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
WHILE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE AT THIS TIME...FREQUENT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST ON ISAAC AS
CHANGES IN THE TRACK MAY RESULT IN CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 88 81 86 / 20 60 80 70
MCO 75 89 77 87 / 20 60 70 70
MLB 79 86 80 87 / 20 70 80 70
VRB 79 89 82 89 / 30 80 80 70
LEE 74 92 78 86 / 20 50 70 70
SFB 75 90 78 87 / 20 60 70 70
ORL 75 89 78 86 / 20 60 70 70
FPR 81 86 82 88 / 30 80 80 70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ST.
LUCIE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VOLUSIA-BREVARD-LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY
AVIATION...BOWEN
TROPICAL WEATHER...BLOTTMAN
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

too close to Cuba sorry

It's already offshore...
Being too close to the coast didn't stop Humberto.
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they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh

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Where is Wunderkid??? I guess he finally threw in the towel...lol...he was on here for a week straight!! It's SOUTH....WSW....SOUTH SOUTH WEST...SOUTH OF WEST SOUTH WEST.....lol...He's great!!!
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

too close to Cuba sorry



am with him 11pm we may see a hurricane he sould be far a way from the coast then
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Quoting GetReal:


Isaac is NOT on a good heading that will allow intensification anytime soon. Isaac need to pull away from the N coast of Cuba in order to maintain itself, or to strengthen. If Isaac stays on the current heading, he will stay on the extreme south side of the track cone, and ride up the center of Cuba.

Which may not be bad for us on the Gulf Coast, if his core is severely damage, or destroyed.


Looking at the latest frames it looks like he took a jog to the NW.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
he could be a Hurricane at 11, its only 14 mph.

too close to Cuba sorry
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2091. docrod
Hi from Key colony Beach. Haven't been camping on the blog but hopefully I'm not repeating anything.

Had nearly 3" of rain today hampering everyone's prep. The water will unfortunately increase the likelihood of tree fall. Some squall lines had gusts to around 30 (a guess) - much stronger at Sombrero light.

I'm at approx. 81.1W; 24.7N; fairly close to the center line of the 11 am projected track. - cheers
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i new it may be a RI is under way

More like slight strengthening. Not RI Taz (yet).
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The interaction between Isaac and the disturbance to its NW is beginning to get pretty interesting now. Huge moisture field possibly coming together:

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2087. BlxMS
Quoting E46Pilot:
For those of you wishing for a hurricane by you...watch this video and remember it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S68ksghDNg4



I echo Pilot's sentiments. My office WAS on the corner over Mr. Hardy's left shoulder...until 8AM on the morning of the 28th....Nobody should have to live through the heartache caused by Katrina.
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Quoting cajunkid:
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.


What are you looking at man?

This is the best radar presentation the core has ever had, though we can't say much for when it was S of Haiti since there was no radar, but wtf...

This thing is re-building an eye-wall and probably about to go RI...

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Issac is croaking
Don't start (again)
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Quoting Tribucanes:


MOST??? of the people on the blog are wishcasting. I've seen posts like this over and over. I know this post got lots of pluses, ya'll must be reading a different blog than I; because I don't see that at all. People are excited by the models which bring the storm closest to them. Guess why? Because it well may. Saying they WANT to be hit by a monster Isaac is a very big leap. I'm sure someone will post something in an hour stating the same ridiculous thing because it'll get lots of pluses. I'm sure SOMEONE or two may WANT to get hit directly by a major. Rest assured MOST do not in any way.

I love it in Maine. I am never blasted for "wish casting" just sitting up here wondering where it will go. I am free to post my opinion and not get blasted it is really fun!!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

997.7mb is rounded out to 998mb, Taz. It's possible this will continue deepening though.



i new it may be a RI is under way
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2082. GetReal


Isaac is NOT on a good heading that will allow intensification anytime soon. Isaac need to pull away from the N coast of Cuba in order to maintain itself, or to strengthen. If Isaac stays on the current heading, he will stay on the extreme south side of the track cone, and ride up the center length of Cuba.

Which may not be bad for us on the Gulf Coast, if his core is severely damage, or destroyed.
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2081. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.


Just needs to pull itself out of Cuba.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



they found a 997mb not too long a go


Well, 997.7 so they'll probably round up to 998mb. Unless they find it lower before 5PM comes out which is possible.
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2078. CJ5
Quoting Drakoen:
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.


I agree. However, we have been watching this tempered strengthening for 72 hours now. I would like to see some real structure. Surely it will begin to pull in some of the mosture out west and form a solid CDO and good convection all around.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


You don't get sub 1000mb pressures with a CoC that is opening up as the recon is finding.
Issac is croaking
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2076. Levi32
12z ECMWF ensembles:

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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I know, I was showing the previous position to get a idea where it moved to.



oh ok
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2074. Michfan
roduct: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 06

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 21.5N 75.6W
Location: 103 miles (165 km) to the N (8°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
999mb (29.50 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 95° (from the E) 47 knots (54 mph)
1000mb -10m (-33 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 674m (2,211 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F) 120° (from the ESE) 48 knots (55 mph)
850mb 1,407m (4,616 ft) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.3°C (63.1°F) 135° (from the SE) 46 knots (53 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 20:09Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 21.55N 75.64W
Splash Time: 20:11Z

Release Location: 21.54N 75.61W
Release Time: 20:09:31Z

Splash Location: 21.55N 75.64W
Splash Time: 20:11:42Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 53 knots (61 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 48 knots (55 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 842mb to 998mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 50 knots (58 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
999mb (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F)
857mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 18.7°C (65.7°F)
850mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.3°C (63.1°F)
842mb 15.6°C (60.1°F) 15.6°C (60.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
999mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 47 knots (54 mph)
990mb 100° (from the E) 53 knots (61 mph)
981mb 105° (from the ESE) 47 knots (54 mph)
951mb 105° (from the ESE) 59 knots (68 mph)
931mb 115° (from the ESE) 49 knots (56 mph)
913mb 130° (from the SE) 48 knots (55 mph)
906mb 135° (from the SE) 51 knots (59 mph)
887mb 140° (from the SE) 44 knots (51 mph)
876mb 135° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
856mb 135° (from the SE) 42 knots (48 mph)
842mb 135° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



they found a 997mb not too long a go

997.7mb is rounded out to 998mb, Taz. It's possible this will continue deepening though.
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Quoting Drakoen:
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.


That might be the case but its circulation is half-exposed. It will take a while to correct.
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2071. angiest
Quoting weatherh98:


They can't find the center?


Very close to the coast. It will be hard to fly through the center without flying over land, and they don't fly recon over land.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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