Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 252050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
center is now offshore
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Redbull77:
if it is going west and i say it is going west am i a westcaster.


Well, if you're thinking Brownsville, Tx you might be a westcaster....lol
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2218. Michfan
Sarasota County schools are now closed Monday.
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2217. WxLogic
Quoting Bamatracker:
from nws in mobile
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS
AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF
ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND
PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE
TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS
INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS
SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A
TRUER OBSERVATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM
THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH
WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM.


Is unfortunate but it was overdoing the Bermuda high extension and progressively trending west on each run. We'll see if it corrects by 00Z.
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STORM SURGE: FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


I'm going to miss this once Isaac is past the Cayman's longitude... this is too comical.


people are arguing about where the center is. I'll tell you where it is. It is just north of the tip of eastern cuba. The as well as the same place there is a flare up of convection and the same place you can see spiral bands forming on visible sat as well as the weakening of the rainbands over Haiti and the DR.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherxtreme:
westcasters out in full today LOL!
LOL? Your comment is not the least bit clever or amusing. This "wishcasting" finger pointing got old at least three years ago. Now, it's nothing but a childish demand for attention when you have nothing worthwhile to add to the weather discussion.
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Intensity forecast didn't vary much
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5pm in for Isaac, 997mb and 60mph. Impressive for the amount of land interaction it has had.
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Will the upper level low to the north and east of Isaac create a weakness in the ridge causing Isaac to move more north and east? Also the low forming west of Isaac, will that have an effect on Issac path?
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Cone of Doom:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2208. HrDelta
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Redbull77:


i am not saying its going west, it is just to find out why you have to be called a westcaster, or a eastcaster. If its going north are you a northcaster. i am just getting tired of people not allowing people to state their opinions without going after them. I come here to learn and if someone thinks it is going this way, i would like to see if i can understand why they think that. sorry back to lurking



Exactly, the ones who don't know what they are talking about will weed themselves out!!
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More important than where the center is, it is still raining hard over all of Haiti, with 100,000s in tents, mudslides and flooding are going to be serious problems
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
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advisory is in the center is offshore and pressure is down to 997Mlb winds remain at 60 mph
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Hi all,
I used to be on here...mostly 2006-08...right now the blog reminds me of what I told my kids when they reached their late teens early adulthood...you may have THOUGHT you were bad but you didn't do ANYTHING that equaled what I did...always been wishcasters etc...and the fights that USED to go on!! Hi Taz and the MS people!!
Issac is a weird storm, center is over water, hope and pray everyone stays safe.....
back to lurking....
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Quoting GetReal:


I have always written off the CMC, but it is funny that Isaac is right on top of the last CMC projected track for the last several hours. LOL at the irony.


I think it may be a mistake for folks to focus too much on the GFS and Euro models because of their recent reliable performances when a poorer performing model may be nailing it. I give all models attention.....not necessarily equal though.....not that gullible.
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2201. HrDelta
Quoting Civicane49:
The center appears to be just offshore.



I would say you would be correct. Just a little bit off shore. Isaac didn't even spend 24 hours over land.
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2200. Drakoen
Quoting Bamatracker:
from nws in mobile
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS
AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF
ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND
PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE
TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS
INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS
SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A
TRUER OBSERVATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM
THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH
WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM.


Thanks for that NWS update.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Cookie or bragging rights? Take your pick. ;)



how about a trip too the moon
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Looking at the cuban radar the center is in fact right on the coast or a tad just offshore but the east/NE side is filling in quite quickly , center is very near Banes,cuba
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Interesting to see that the area of convection out ahead of Isaac appears to be wrapping into the circulation. I was wondering what this would do.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Another expert I see


i am not saying its going west, it is just to find out why you have to be called a westcaster, or a eastcaster. If its going north are you a northcaster. i am just getting tired of people not allowing people to state their opinions without going after them. I come here to learn and if someone thinks it is going this way, i would like to see if i can understand why they think that. sorry back to lurking
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2195. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


They can slip up the west side of Florida, but a track like the 12z GFS from south of Hispaniola NW to the central gulf coast just doesn't show up in the record books.
1979s fredrick is pretty darn close.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




YAY am right for once for being right what do i get?


Cookie or bragging rights? Take your pick. ;)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Trending WNW-NW now, clearly evident thanks to them moving with the system's CoC. Give it 5-6 more hours to clear Cuba.
Link



That's a great shot....More people should just watch that...and we wouldn't have so much ridiculousness on here...
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One can tell that the center is either emerging or has emerged out into the very warm waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as convection has really begun building once again to the north and the east of the circulation center. Once it pulls further from the coast, convection should fill in on the western side as it interacts with the thunderstorm complex to the north and west of the storm. It should be noted that usually, when thunderstorms line up out ahead a storm, the storm typically takes the same path. So I would not be surprised to see the storm continue on a northwest track over the next several hours or even beyond.
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from nws in mobile
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS
AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF
ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND
PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE
TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS
INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS
SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A
TRUER OBSERVATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM
THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH
WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
12z Euro ensembles at 96 hours. A lot more disagreement with its ensembles than there has been.

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The center appears to be just offshore.

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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Tazmanian I respectfully advise to please don't waste your time answering to the CI guys!!,they are not providing anything of subtance to this blog and the serious situation that we can have with Isaac.You are right the center is over water on the Eastern coast of Cuba,as verified by all local news outlets and the NHC at this time.




YAY am right for once for being right what do i get?
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Pressures are really low in the Gulf.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
New blog on Isaac by me.
Link
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Due to the increase of convection and the fact that the center is now located just to the north of Cuba, I am beginning to wonder about something. There might be a chance for Isaac to strengthen into a strong CAT 1 hurricane even before it reaches Florida. I was looking at the satellites and realized that there is quite a ways between it and Florida. Masters also stated that most storms in this area have a tendency to strengthen up to 20 MPH. I agree with that and think it might be likely with Isaac.
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2184. wpb
please post gitmo radar center was seen and looking a liite better
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
2183. HrDelta
Quoting HRinFM:
The voice of reason.


And the Most Interesting Man in the World.

Grother doesn't always comment, but when he does, he comments on Jeff Master's Blog.

In regards to Isaac, I have given up on trying to predict beyond 72 hours. This thing is finicky.

In other news, Libya has had a very, very bad day.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

If hes sucking up the FL mess than he will be BIG maybe not that big but still


Yeah I was noticing on satellite how big he is. I live about 90 miles east of Houston and We're supposed to be under building high pressure so I'm not sure what Houston was talking about. Looks like he will definitely stir up a lot of the gulf though.
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Trending WNW-NW now, clearly evident thanks to them moving with the system's CoC. Give it 5-6 more hours to clear Cuba.
Link
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Quoting chrisdscane:


I have to agree

We will find out in 10 mins.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



for the last time its not overe land it overe the open water at 21N 75W
Tazmanian I respectfully advise to please don't waste your time answering to the CI guys!!,they are not providing anything of subtance to this blog and the serious situation that we can have with Isaac.You are right the center is over water on the Eastern coast of Cuba,as verified by all local news outlets and the NHC at this time.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
center appears to be right on the coast on 76W 21N


I have to agree
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Quoting weatherh98:


As are the eastcasters


Cayman Casters?
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2176. GetReal
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well it does look like Isaac is pulling away, although slowly.

Plus, looking at a topography map, Isaac is already past the huge mountains of eastern Cuba. The rest of Cuba will be much less of an obstruction for Isaac than Haiti and eastern Cuba have been for him the past 18 hours.



So things are looking up for Isaac.


Unfortunately the se quad of the circulation hasn't cleared the mountains.... that is the problem for Isaac.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Maybe Isaac missed History class the day they talked about that lol. Didn't Georges pulled something similar?


Ha yeah but Georges wasn't south of Hispaniola I think. I think it went from PR to DR to Haiti to Cuba to the central gulf. Come to think about it, it's amazing it stayed a hurricane the whole time.
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Quoting newportrinative:


I think we'll get more than that. Not saying it's gonna be real bad but I think we'll have tropical storm conditions.


We may very well get more, I am just basing this prediction on past experience. Georges in 1998 moved through The Keys (as a cat. 2 or 3) on a wnw to nw trajectory similar to what is being forecast for Isaac, and we just got some rain. Another that comes to mind is Erin '95. I was so excited to see some strong winds (being a 10 year old and all). It moved in near Vero Beach as a cat. 2 and across the Peninsula and it got a bit gusty that morning but that was it. I can think of other examples as well.
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Not looking too shabby!


Yep.
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center appears to be right on the coast on 76W 21N
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
I wonder if they evacuated Scarabeo 9. I bet they don't.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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