Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

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2270. emcf30
One thing for folks to remember, as it has been said in here time after time, no matter where you are in Florida you need to be prepared. The center is expected to stay well off the coast of CFL according to the Official track issued by the NHC. But, if you look at this graphic, you can see the radar indicated rotation and tornado paths caused by a very weak tropical Storm Debby earlier this year.



This storm will have far reaching effects no matter which side of the track your on.

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note this part here



IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Hurricanes101:
recon found winds of 66mph
Suspect.
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when i wake up tomorrow at 8am, should i expect a hurricane or a tropical storm?
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Quoting SykKid:


no way it become that powerful. NHC say it only have very, very small chance of become a major.

"SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST."
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What do you guys think the odds are of a Charley like "wobble" to the east and this storm coming ashore or riding the west coast of Florida? I know a lot of people here (Cape Coral) are very anxious about this storm. Some gas stations are already out of gas and I saw a line of over 15 cars at another one.
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Quoting Drakoen:
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.
Groupies may not be the right word. LOLOL.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Moving at 21 MPH. Wow. That's really moving.


Yeah... it's flying. Needs to slow down some to intensify.
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2262. hydrus
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Well, if you're thinking Brownsville, Tx you might be a westcaster....lol
This is goin to Butte, Montana. I just received the latest, and all 3 houses have been boarded up and coolers have been stocked with beer, ice and steaks.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If Isaac parralles the coast of Florida then I don't see much strengthening.


Thats Florida, not Cuba or Haiti. Florida will not have any affect of Isaac unless the center passes over land. The water is 90 F off Florida. That will be the key to it strengthening. The issue I am watching is whether the ULL might create unexpected shear once it gets into the gulf preventing a major hurricane.
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Quoting Drakoen:
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.


Drak, do you think a stronger Isaac would tend to be further east in track?
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Quoting Civicane49:


Yep.


Wow looks like its going to be enormous once it wrap up the convection to its NW by 11pm we could have a hurricane.
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Quoting Drakoen:
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.
and I'll taste test the crow
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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.6N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.1N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 25.2N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 31.5N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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recon found winds of 66mph
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2255. scott39
This storm is so wide that Isaac is going to effect all of Fl. and the whole pandhandle W to New Orleans. We are looking at TS winds 200 miles from the center.
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2254. FLSurf
Quoting MarkTodd2233:
Recon turned around again,,,,, LOOKING


do you have a link for that?
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2253. Dakster
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Isaac parralles the coast of Florida then I don't see much strengthening.


Levi talked about that in his tidbit...
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2252. Drakoen
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.
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Quoting hydrus:
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.



I agree, this is getting too close for comfort.
Believe me, been thru a few "eyes" and they are bad... been thru a lot of "outter bands" and that can get bad...


It is all measured by clean up "eyes" mean your entire yard is gone aka Wilma...

flooding and clean up... 1999 Irene...

Katrina, Rita, Jeanne, Francis, all one day of yard clean up... Also Andrew and a few others in the 1990's we got "edges"..


We will get some nasty but the upper Gulf Coast will get some really bad nasty.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40918
Recon is going towards the center again for another fix
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Becoming better organized. Outflow to the NW is becoming much, much better established than this morning. Convection increasing over the CoC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
Quoting airmet3:

Well that will make for a quiet board.



I don't want a quiet board, I like the discussions that go on here for the most part. I just think that if you have figured out someone is "wish"casting, then keep it to yourself. They will eventually shut up all by themselves. :-)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think that is more to do with narrowing down the cone, I dont think the track shifted west at all at 5pm, but I have not been able to compare it as of yet


My local Met just said they adjusted just a little bit to the west for the 5pm update.
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Long time lurker here (2005), I see Isaac is doing what most storms do after reaching a certain proximity.....what he/she wants.
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2245. Levi32
Banding is increasing in the path of the center, expressing the tendency for the storm to strengthen as it moves into the Florida straights.

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To my very untrained eye, it looks as if Issac is pulling the the convection from the Low off of south florida, and wrapping that around him. That would just make the storm bigger in area, but perhaps the size being so big would prevent it from getting too strong in the gulf.
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Quoting hydrus:
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.


I am interested to see how Isaac reacts with this ULL
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
STORM SURGE: FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT

Bayshore near the convention center floods at 5 feet.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Moving at 21 MPH. Wow. That's really moving.



Interesting to see if it will be able to turn as thought
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
If what the NWS in Mobile says is true, expect the GFS to switch back eastward...I think the track looks pretty good right now from the NHC, but as I have said, I think it will be shifted eastward a bit
We'll soon find out in 30 min.
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If Isaac parralles the coast of Florida then I don't see much strengthening.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17099
thats not good


* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
one thing to note is the LLC may get pulled east or NE towards the strong convection developing
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

5PM little West Tampa out of the cone but they should be prepared to receive severe impacts nonetheless


I think that is more to do with narrowing down the cone, I dont think the track shifted west at all at 5pm, but I have not been able to compare it as of yet
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
5pm in for Isaac, 997mb and 60mph. Impressive for the amount of land interaction it has had.
For sure. Only a 5 mph drop overall.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


So its pretty much hugging the Cuba coast going NW just like the coast goes, right?



yes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting tropicfreak:


Cayman Casters?


Defeats us all
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2230. Dakster
Quoting CybrTeddy:
5pm in for Isaac, 997mb and 60mph. Impressive for the amount of land interaction it has had.


Yes - and Isaac doesn't seem to want to pull away from the Northern part of Cuba. Kind of following it around.
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2229. Michfan
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


So its pretty much hugging the Cuba coast going NW just like the coast goes, right?


Yup just offshore.
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2228. hydrus
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.
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5PM little West Tampa out of the cone but they should be prepared to receive severe impacts nonetheless
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Quoting Tazmanian:


So its pretty much hugging the Cuba coast going NW just like the coast goes, right?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
12z Euro ensembles at 96 hours. A lot more disagreement with its ensembles than there has been.



Folks in your area are definitely not out of it Mississippi
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2224. airmet3
Quoting OceanMoan:



Exactly, the ones who don't know what they are talking about will weed themselves out!!

Well that will make for a quiet board.
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Recon turned around again,,,,, LOOKING
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If what the NWS in Mobile says is true, expect the GFS to switch back eastward...I think the track looks pretty good right now from the NHC, but as I have said, I think it will be shifted eastward a bit
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 252050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.