Isaac is strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is strengthening. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 60 mph on the east side of the center, about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, at 8:40 am EDT this morning. Winds at the aircraft's flight level of 5,000 feet were hurricane force, 76 mph. The surface pressure remained fairly high, at 1000 mb. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, and the Hurricane Hunters typically find that a storm's lowest pressure is also where the warmest temperature are. However, this morning's flight found that Isaac was still disorganized, with the storm showing almost no evidence of a warm core. Isaac's warmest temperatures were displaced 75 miles to the west of where the lowest pressure was. There were no signs of an eyewall beginning to build. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is somewhat asymmetric, with a large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region. This is interfering with both the storm's low-level inflow and upper-level outflow, but the band appears to be dying out. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows an upper-level outflow channel well-established to the north, and an intermittent outflow channel to the south.


Figure 1. Evening shot of Tropical Storm Isaac taken on August 23, 2012, by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.

Isaac's rains
Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows that Isaac is dumping some very heavy rains to the south and east of the center. Ponce, Puerto Rico had a wind gust of 37 mph this morning as a heavy band of rain moved through, and radar-estimated rainfall amounts are in excess of 7 inches for the region just north of Ponce. Power outages to 2,000 homes have been reported in Puerto Rico this morning. NOAA buoy 42085 offshore from Ponce reported a wind gust of 54 mph near 9 am EDT this morning. Rainfall estimates from microwave satellite instruments suggest that Isaac's heaviest rains are to the south of the center, and that the Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti will escape the worst of Isaac's rains. Haiti's southwest peninsula and Eastern Cuba should suffer the heaviest rains.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation from the Puerto Rico radar shows the region near Ponce has received up to 7" of rain as of 10 am EDT August 24, 2012.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have come into better agreement, thanks to the dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet yesterday afternoon and evening. Isaac should move over Haiti's southwest peninsula and then eastern Cuba, then track along the spine of Cuba before popping off into the Florida Straits on Sunday. A trough of low pressure will then pull Isaac to the northwest, and then north, towards the Central Gulf Coast. Landfall locations range from Mississippi (06Z HWRF model run) to the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee (06Z GFDL model run.) It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall over the Tennessee Valley for several days.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall total ending at 2 am EDT Wednesday August 29, from Tropical Storm Isaac. Graphics were generated from the 6Z (2 am EDT) August 24, 2012 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has not intensified as much as predicted, and I think that the storm's very large size is partially responsible for that. It's tough to spin up as much atmosphere as Isaac is attempting to do very quickly. Conditions remain favorable for intensification today, with wind shear low, 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures warm, 29°C, and dry air mostly mixed out of the storm's core. The large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region, appears to be dying out now, which will help the storm grow more organized. The storm's structure has improved considerably between 9 am - 10 am EDT, with a fairly tight center forming, exposed to view, on the north edge of Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms. A curved band of heavy thunderstorms is now trying to wrap around this center to the northeast, and this band will bring very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic this afternoon. I expect that the Hurricane Hunters will observe a partial eyewall in their vortex reports between 2 - 4 pm EDT this afternoon. The storm's large size and disorganized structure suggests that Isaac will be able to intensify only slowly today, and will have top winds of 70 - 75 mph before encountering Southwest Haiti and Eastern Cuba tonight and Saturday. Isaac will likely be a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate. The upper-level wind pattern favorable may be quite favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm--though the models disagree on whether or not this anticyclone will set up directly over Isaac or not. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane. It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 17% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. Tampa is in the NHC cone of uncertainty, though near the edge of it. At a minimum, Tampa will receive very heavy rains and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Isaac is going to be hard-pressed to bring hurricane-force winds to the city, though, since any path that takes it close to Tampa would keep the storm too close to land for significant intensification to occur. I put the odds of a mass evacuation being ordered for Tampa during the convention at 1%. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday has been designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts that 97L will track west-northwest over the next few days, and encounter a region of high wind shear associated with an upper-level low on Monday and Tuesday. This low may be capable of tearing the storm apart, as happened to Tropical Storm Joyce. None of the models currently foresee that 97L will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands, but 97L may pass near Bermuda 7 - 8 days from now.



20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Today, August 24, is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds--one of only three Category 5 hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. With Isaac churning through the Caribbean this week, I didn't have time to prepare a special post on Andrew, but our Hurricane Andrew archive page has links to satellite and radar images, newspaper headlines, and 49 YouTube videos. Here's an additional link for an Andrew damage video shot by wunderblogger/storm chaser Mike Theiss, when he was 14 years old.

Jeff Masters

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1811. SherwoodSpirit
3:44 AM GMT on August 25, 2012
Quoting southfla:
Floridian's Hurricane Shutter Decision tree

Is a hurricane or tropical storm approaching ?

If no -- > go lie down in the hammock and have a beer
If yes ---> Is your home within the NHC cone of concern ?

If no ---> go lie down in the hammock and have a beer until it is
If yes ---> Mull over how energetic you feel and then go stand in front of shutters and stare for a while, you know you might need to do this

Is you city under a hurricane warning ?

If yes ---> put shutters up at least 5 hours before tropical storm winds arrive
If no ---> go lie down in the hammock and have another beer to contemplate the situation some more

Are there any models (excluding XTRAP) which indicate it will be a hurricane when it gets to your house ?

If yes ---> put shutters up at least 5 hours before tropical storm winds arrive
If no ---> go lie down in the hammock and have another beer to contemplate the situation some more

Have your neighbors started putting their shutters up ?
If yes ---> suck it up and get it over with, put the shutters up
If no ---> how sensitive are you to ridicule ?

and finally, given all the information available to you, how comfortable will you feel when the storm arrives if you have NOT put your shutters up ?


As always -- get your information from official sources and follow their directions.



haha
Human nature vs hurricane expediency. That was awesome. :)
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 392
1810. southfla
11:05 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Floridian's Hurricane Shutter Decision tree

Is a hurricane or tropical storm approaching ?

If no -- > go lie down in the hammock and have a beer
If yes ---> Is your home within the NHC cone of concern ?

If no ---> go lie down in the hammock and have a beer until it is
If yes ---> Mull over how energetic you feel and then go stand in front of shutters and stare for a while, you know you might need to do this

Is you city under a hurricane warning ?

If yes ---> put shutters up at least 5 hours before tropical storm winds arrive
If no ---> go lie down in the hammock and have another beer to contemplate the situation some more

Are there any models (excluding XTRAP) which indicate it will be a hurricane when it gets to your house ?

If yes ---> put shutters up at least 5 hours before tropical storm winds arrive
If no ---> go lie down in the hammock and have another beer to contemplate the situation some more

Have your neighbors started putting their shutters up ?
If yes ---> suck it up and get it over with, put the shutters up
If no ---> how sensitive are you to ridicule ?

and finally, given all the information available to you, how comfortable will you feel when the storm arrives if you have NOT put your shutters up ?


As always -- get your information from official sources and follow their directions.

Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
1809. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:30 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Tampa Bay is right in the center of the eye on the 12Z GFS. Aw hell just throw it out per NHC


CMC precip accum.



didn't they throw the cmc out to?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1808. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Look north of Cuba right now. Lots of action building there almost like it's getting ready for Issac to move in. Very very interesting to say the least and I'm the only to comment on this over the last couple of days.



What does that mean in english? :)
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1807. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:15 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting jrweatherman:
There is one thing for sure about Isaac. It is NOT going WEST! 305 degree heading is not West.


Yup,I had it going 302
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1806. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
Holy cow! GOES-14 brought out of storage and running 1-min data until October, currently focused on Isaac!

1-min super rapid scan visible loop


Looks like some big Thunderstorms/Hot Towers firing up around a elongated nw to se eye?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1805. WetBankGuy
10:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Is that what it looks like in the last frames, or is Isaac just winking and saying you poor bastards?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_di rectory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&i mage_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_ to_display=50
Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
1804. GTcooliebai
9:52 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
60 hrs.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1803. connie1976
9:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
I live in South Florida.... when should I consider putting up shutters? It's a pain in the butt!!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1802. BahaHurican
9:13 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
New Blog, BTW.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
1801. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


You can't just look at one frame, Reed. You have to look at the evolution of the pattern. The Euro has the continental ridge bridging with the Bermuda high by 144 hours and that's why the Euro has the solution that it has.



Levi? Do you think the EURO is having issues with the High in the western gulf,like it did with the high NW of Debby?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1800. Thrawst
9:05 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting gustavcane:
Look at how Typhoon Bolaven's center is bouncing and wobbling all over the place. prime example of how sometimes it is hard to know where the track of these storms will end up. it is like a spinning wobbling top could end up 300 miles to the north or south of its projected path with that spin it has.




those wobbles are called Trochoidal oscillations. They only occur in intense hurricanes. Isaac is not an intense hurricane, and rather those wobbles in track are partly due to reformations, and just slight deviations in the track. :)
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1737
1799. Hurrihistory
8:57 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
As long as Isaac continues to suck in the dry air like it's still doing, this storm is not gonna be a big deal anywhere.
Member Since: February 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
1798. HurricaneHunterJoe
8:56 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Who is the stormchaser dude who had the live feed during Beryl and I think Irene? from last year. He's a funny guy! Hope he is here for Isaac,should he decide to have landfall in Florida.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1797. Hurricanes305
8:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
You can say that again. If it starts heading for the mainland, there will be no evacuation for the Keys no matter what anyone says. There will be gridlock on all roads leading out of S. Fla.


WOW!!! Look at the Radar for S. Floridians Im watching channel 7 news at 4pm they are saying there is a severe thunderstorm warning for southern Dade county looks like Isaac is pumping up moisture to s. florida. Environment looks moist around the storm. Very SCARY setup. I'm waiting on the 5pm forecast to put up Shutters.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1796. icmoore
8:51 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
I expect a significant shift to the East with all the models at the next advisory.


You know i'm getting tired of you and your east, east, east :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
1795. gustavcane
8:51 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Look at how Typhoon Bolaven's center is bouncing and wobbling all over the place. prime example of how sometimes it is hard to know where the track of these storms will end up. it is like a spinning wobbling top could end up 300 miles to the north or south of its projected path with that spin it has.


Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
1794. catastropheadjuster
8:50 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
I've been gone most of the day.. Has something drastically changed in Isaac's track? Is something going to pull him east or has his winds gotten faster. I know someone said if his winds where to get to hurricane strength the he could be pulled north.

TIA,
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
1793. o22sail
8:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting seflagamma:


funny! reminds of the that first blogging summer of 2005!

Yup. I see's it.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
1792. WPBHurricane05
8:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Dang…I miss the old days when 500 people would scream NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1790. MarcoIsland
8:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Watching closely here
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
1789. violet312s
8:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
New blog folks.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
1788. hurricanejunky
8:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Here is a cool video link that shows the importance of vertical garage door bracing. Garage door failure is one of the top reasons for major damage in hurricanes.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1787. charlottefl
8:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Circulation has finally started building convection in the western side of the storm. Hold on to your hats guys....

Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
1786. oceanspringsMS
8:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


a good place to go for storm supplies, that a lot of people do not think of.. Dollar General. When Katrina was breathing down my neck and WM, LOWES, HD etc were sold out of everything, Dollar General had everything I needed.


That is a good suggestion. Every small town in the South has one. I filled up the cars today and put another 25 gals. in cans. Don't think we are going to get hit in MS, but I do know the price of gas will jump no matter where landfall is.
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
1785. KeyWestwx
8:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
Holy cow! GOES-14 brought out of storage and running 1-min data until October, currently focused on Isaac!

1-min super rapid scan visible loop
Awesome. i love it!
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
1784. seflagamma
8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting presslord:


Which reminds me...Is Stephanie Abrams still in Key West?


You are bad... yes sire you are bad!!! ROFL!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40840
1783. kwgirl
8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Whats up WU, Isaac looking grim for SE Florida than yesterday. The Euro is not having a good handle on the storm because its lack of a dominant LLC and little vertical stacking. I also noticing dry air falling apart as the outflow is just too strong to disrupt it. Thus a eastern shift is likely in the next advisory. Convection was concentrated to the LLC's SW however those bug thunderstorms have wane and new convection is firing right over the COC. MLC is slightly displace and by tonight it should be vertically stacked which could put it over Cat.1 status. It will go over a thin strip of Hait and emerge over water which could help it become a cane if it didnt make it tonight. Before going over Cuba Saturday evening. Emerging on Sunday where it should slow down a bit (10-15mph) giving it the almost the whole Bahamas to strengthen. Possibly rapidly strengthen
into a Major Cane coming to Southern Florida. Always Stay tuned as yesterday SE Florida was becoming less likely and know its more likely and could be way stronger than a TS. For all who lives in S. Florida start preparing tonight and make precautions Saturday I notice some south Florida isnt taking it serious which is bothering me right now. LOL its the 20 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew man talk about IRONY.
You can say that again. If it starts heading for the mainland, there will be no evacuation for the Keys no matter what anyone says. There will be gridlock on all roads leading out of S. Fla.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1782. chrisdscane
8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
levi are you here?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1052
1781. HrDelta
8:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting ringeaux:


I got you beat on joining, but certainly not on number of posts.

Just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox Business. Quite the fear-monger. He even said it Isaac might 'explode' and become a Cat 3. He also needs to learn to say Biloxi-- not Ba-Locks-ee


His little outfit was responsible for many deaths in regards to the bungling of the response to Katrina, and the Rita Hysteria.

At least 127 people died because of Accuweather's malfeasance.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 450
1780. Bluestorm5
8:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Very cool:

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7506
1779. GeoffreyWPB
8:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
1778. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
8:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2012


Picture 1 hour ago from my cousin in Santo Domingo, DR. You can see a little flooding in the distant sidewalk (DR floods easily due to poor drainage).
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 467
1777. StormTracker2K
8:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Another thing of note the HPC was using the NAM for it's forecast which is the worst model of them all. Geesh!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1776. Tribucanes
8:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting CloudGatherer:


Not quite sure what you mean. This storm's central pressure has dropped 6 millibars today; it's finally set up a temperature differential within its core, as it's warmed substantially; and it's been wrapping convection around the center of its circulation. I've never seen it look as good as it does right now.
Thanks for the reply. Statistically and conditionally he's the best he's been, just his presentation on satellite looks disheveled to my untrained eye. Thanks much for clarifying
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1775. ringeaux
8:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting seflagamma:
wow next wed. Aug 28th, will be the 7th Anniversary of the day I signed up here on WU!..
I was "lurking" a little while before I got the nerve to join in the fun.


I got you beat on joining, but certainly not on number of posts.

Just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox Business. Quite the fear-monger. He even said it Isaac might 'explode' and become a Cat 3. He also needs to learn to say Biloxi-- not Ba-Locks-ee
Member Since: September 21, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
1774. jeffs713
8:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting presslord:


Which reminds me...Is Stephanie Abrams still in Key West?

She is on google images, tho.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
1773. PalmBeachWeather
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting presslord:


Which reminds me...Is Stephanie Abrams still in Key West?
She is...For the duration
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5754
1772. SouthTampa
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Isaac the last 72 hours... really cool.



Link
Really cool. Thanks for posting.
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1771. HrDelta
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
all of a sudden..sand bags are like GOLD you have to show ID to get them?..............PINELLAS COUNTY

Sandbags will be available Saturday and Sunday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., weather permitting. Residents must have identification that verifies they are residents of St. Petersburg. Twenty bags per vehicle allowed.

Northeast Park, 875 62nd Avenue NE at the Cardinal Drive entrance to Mangrove Bay Course
Frank W. Pierce Recreation Center, 2000 Seventh St. St, enter from 22nd Ave. S., east side of Seventh Street


That is the stupidest thing I have ever heard.

To be honest, I have noticed that, the lowest levels of government (hello Municipalities!) tend to be the ones that do the mind-bendingly stupid stuff.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 450
1770. AtHomeInTX
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



That is a pretty good analysis


I agree. And for the record I posted the whole thing to begin with. I'm such a trouble maker.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1769. HoustonTxGal
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Home Depot or Lowe's might be a better bet.


a good place to go for storm supplies, that a lot of people do not think of.. Dollar General. When Katrina was breathing down my neck and WM, LOWES, HD etc were sold out of everything, Dollar General had everything I needed.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
1768. oceanspringsMS
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Home Depot or Lowe's might be a better bet.

Better PM on bottled water and canned tuna
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
1767. MiamiHurricanes09
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interesting to note that the ECMWF has been right on everything up to this point. We will have to see if that continues.
Not realllyyyy.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1766. hurricanejunky
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting FOREX:


I'm trying to look at it this way. Le Bron James is the EURO and Dwayne Wade is the GFS. Both are awesome players. Miami makes the finals and decides that Wade is good enough and they let LeBron sit and rest a few games. That would be stupid. Time will tell I guess.


I'm really glad you used that analogy because I'm from Miami so naturally my favorite team is the Heat! Not sure why they're so heavily weighted toward the GFS but since they're usually spot on with track I guess I'll keep my second guessing to myself. I can't help but think of the Debby debacle. That is very out of character for the NHC but they are under new leadership so we'll see...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1765. wpb
8:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
will they post any watches for keys sfla at 5pm or wait until 11pm.they like to advise before late hours??????????
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
1764. StormTracker2K
8:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Quick look at the dropsonde data from Gonzo indicates the ridge to the north is a little weaker than yesterday. 500mb heights 10-20 m lower.


Interesting.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1763. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1762. PalmBeachWeather
8:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting leelee75k:
waiting to hear what Max Mayfield say at 5pm on Channel 10 news. He's my weather god! I do as Max says!
leelee... I am in Palm Beach county. Wondering if I can get it here..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5754
1761. SSideBrac
8:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting caribnewsman:

Not to the same degree, but it does identify someone as a tourist/foreigner.

The point is, Isaac could very well pass closely to two of the three Cayman Islands just as easily as it could pass very closely to Miami.


And I live on the Northern most of the 3 and am by no means convinced that we are "out of the woods and in the clear".
Thankfully, at this time the Wind fields in Southern quadrants seem much smaller - BUT - the way Isaac has flobbled around, who can tell?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 264

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.