Isaac is strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is strengthening. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 60 mph on the east side of the center, about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, at 8:40 am EDT this morning. Winds at the aircraft's flight level of 5,000 feet were hurricane force, 76 mph. The surface pressure remained fairly high, at 1000 mb. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, and the Hurricane Hunters typically find that a storm's lowest pressure is also where the warmest temperature are. However, this morning's flight found that Isaac was still disorganized, with the storm showing almost no evidence of a warm core. Isaac's warmest temperatures were displaced 75 miles to the west of where the lowest pressure was. There were no signs of an eyewall beginning to build. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is somewhat asymmetric, with a large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region. This is interfering with both the storm's low-level inflow and upper-level outflow, but the band appears to be dying out. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows an upper-level outflow channel well-established to the north, and an intermittent outflow channel to the south.


Figure 1. Evening shot of Tropical Storm Isaac taken on August 23, 2012, by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.

Isaac's rains
Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows that Isaac is dumping some very heavy rains to the south and east of the center. Ponce, Puerto Rico had a wind gust of 37 mph this morning as a heavy band of rain moved through, and radar-estimated rainfall amounts are in excess of 7 inches for the region just north of Ponce. Power outages to 2,000 homes have been reported in Puerto Rico this morning. NOAA buoy 42085 offshore from Ponce reported a wind gust of 54 mph near 9 am EDT this morning. Rainfall estimates from microwave satellite instruments suggest that Isaac's heaviest rains are to the south of the center, and that the Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti will escape the worst of Isaac's rains. Haiti's southwest peninsula and Eastern Cuba should suffer the heaviest rains.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation from the Puerto Rico radar shows the region near Ponce has received up to 7" of rain as of 10 am EDT August 24, 2012.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have come into better agreement, thanks to the dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet yesterday afternoon and evening. Isaac should move over Haiti's southwest peninsula and then eastern Cuba, then track along the spine of Cuba before popping off into the Florida Straits on Sunday. A trough of low pressure will then pull Isaac to the northwest, and then north, towards the Central Gulf Coast. Landfall locations range from Mississippi (06Z HWRF model run) to the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee (06Z GFDL model run.) It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall over the Tennessee Valley for several days.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall total ending at 2 am EDT Wednesday August 29, from Tropical Storm Isaac. Graphics were generated from the 6Z (2 am EDT) August 24, 2012 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has not intensified as much as predicted, and I think that the storm's very large size is partially responsible for that. It's tough to spin up as much atmosphere as Isaac is attempting to do very quickly. Conditions remain favorable for intensification today, with wind shear low, 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures warm, 29°C, and dry air mostly mixed out of the storm's core. The large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region, appears to be dying out now, which will help the storm grow more organized. The storm's structure has improved considerably between 9 am - 10 am EDT, with a fairly tight center forming, exposed to view, on the north edge of Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms. A curved band of heavy thunderstorms is now trying to wrap around this center to the northeast, and this band will bring very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic this afternoon. I expect that the Hurricane Hunters will observe a partial eyewall in their vortex reports between 2 - 4 pm EDT this afternoon. The storm's large size and disorganized structure suggests that Isaac will be able to intensify only slowly today, and will have top winds of 70 - 75 mph before encountering Southwest Haiti and Eastern Cuba tonight and Saturday. Isaac will likely be a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate. The upper-level wind pattern favorable may be quite favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm--though the models disagree on whether or not this anticyclone will set up directly over Isaac or not. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane. It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 17% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. Tampa is in the NHC cone of uncertainty, though near the edge of it. At a minimum, Tampa will receive very heavy rains and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Isaac is going to be hard-pressed to bring hurricane-force winds to the city, though, since any path that takes it close to Tampa would keep the storm too close to land for significant intensification to occur. I put the odds of a mass evacuation being ordered for Tampa during the convention at 1%. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday has been designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts that 97L will track west-northwest over the next few days, and encounter a region of high wind shear associated with an upper-level low on Monday and Tuesday. This low may be capable of tearing the storm apart, as happened to Tropical Storm Joyce. None of the models currently foresee that 97L will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands, but 97L may pass near Bermuda 7 - 8 days from now.



20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Today, August 24, is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds--one of only three Category 5 hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. With Isaac churning through the Caribbean this week, I didn't have time to prepare a special post on Andrew, but our Hurricane Andrew archive page has links to satellite and radar images, newspaper headlines, and 49 YouTube videos. Here's an additional link for an Andrew damage video shot by wunderblogger/storm chaser Mike Theiss, when he was 14 years old.

Jeff Masters

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 20:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:54:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°54'N 71°42'W (16.9N 71.7W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSE (160°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,378m (4,521ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 237° at 34kts (From the WSW at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SE (140°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the east quadrant at 18:21:30Z
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1610. LargoFl
all of a sudden..sand bags are like GOLD you have to show ID to get them?..............PINELLAS COUNTY

Sandbags will be available Saturday and Sunday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., weather permitting. Residents must have identification that verifies they are residents of St. Petersburg. Twenty bags per vehicle allowed.

Northeast Park, 875 62nd Avenue NE at the Cardinal Drive entrance to Mangrove Bay Course
Frank W. Pierce Recreation Center, 2000 Seventh St. St, enter from 22nd Ave. S., east side of Seventh Street
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
Well comparing 2pm NHC advisory to latest dropsonde, Isaac has moved .1N and .3W, back to a WNW movement.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
I was wanting to share something I thought is interesting.

All week it has been raining here in South West Georgia with showers and storms but all of the sudden skies have clear and the system causing the rain is moving out just in time for Isaac. It makes you wonder if ole isaac has something to do with that.

*hey move out of the way...I am coming through*

Oh well they should be alright (CAT 1 tops according to forecast) unless of course Isaac blows up rather quickly

The caymans haven't dodged anything. The still are on the left side of the storm and have a storm moving in a direction north of them. Any turn to the south and west changes everything. I believe they have the right to breath a bit easier but NEVER let your guard down. Weather is unpredictable. They aren't out of the woods until the storm passes over Cuba and is in the GOM.


hmm that is true

this is how I put it We here in the Cayman Islands are not out of the woods yet I'd say we wouldn't be out till it NNW of us anything can happens so just keep an eye out




looks like HH found next fix WNW-NW of last fix
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1607. FOREX
Quoting masonsnana:
Thank you I wouldn't have been so kind right now..


If the GFS showed Isaac going up the spine of Florida I could see a cone shift East.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
The most significant thing about the 18z model run suite (for me) was the fact that the model consensus now is now the TVCA is, like we mentioned, only showing Isaac briefly making landfall with Cuba instead of traversing half the length of the island as the NHC has it doing. The TVCA for those who don't know much about the models, is the mean or average of all the model runs. You will often find that the NHC follows usually pretty close to the TVCA.
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Quoting A4Guy:
I think it should be mandatory to have your location included as part of your screen name. It would explain a LOT - especially with the home-drawn forecasts. I am sure 90% of them take the storm to the poster's doorstep. Would also expose those screaming "it's going West...not Northwest" - it will be no surprise that the direction being advocated similarly takes the storm to their house (or on a path in their general direction).



I do have my location in my handle and I agree with you. been that way from the beginning here.

I am very much behind for past hour... need to catch up..
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1604. hulakai
Hey WKC, those folks are just pokin ya in the ribs. Just laugh (like levi) and they will go away. Keep watchin and expressin yer opinion and you'll learn as ya go along.

I'm 60 and been watchin fer a long time and I still learn something in here every day!

Could be one day, like doc and NHC folks will value your opinion over their own.

Meanwhile, wind is freshening here in Broward from NE

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Quoting DrMickey:


The Caymans...is that like "The Carolinas"?


not really....

There is a lot more American money in the Caymans....

; )
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Welcome to Florida ...we have been expecting you.

I am jumping on the bandwagon(didn't think he would make it), Isaac is getting serious now. Will be Hurricane Isaac by 2am giving the current intensification...close to 994mb now and moving NW...

Levi's track seems very reasonable. Best dude we have on this blog.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
dont they usually skip right to 70mph?
They skip 55mph.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NHC losing their marbles if there isn't a considerble eastward shift in the forecast cone.
Thank you I wouldn't have been so kind right now..
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1599. CJ5
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Can anyone tell me what the latest Euro run is please and thank you. :)


No much change, page back a page or two and it is on here.
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1598. bwi
Half arc eye wall trying to form?
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Quoting presslord:
yea...those NHC guys are a bunch of losers....they should trade in their education, reputations, years of experience, virtually unlimited budgets, cutting edge technology...and just lay around their Mother's house in their dirty underwear, scratching their crotches and and posting to this blog...then they'd get some respect...



You've just won the weather blog.
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Saw CBS 12 at the Palm Beach County EOC when I drove by it this afternoon.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yeah, I'm not quite sure why they start out really favoring the GFS and now it's almost like the sexier ECMWF model came along and they just dumped poor ol' GFS and won't even look at her anymore...


maybe it is because it can not make up its mind and stop flip flopping all over the place lol.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If I was an admin, I'd without a shadow of a doubt permanently ban anyone that labeled someone else as a "***-caster". Seriously lol.


Miami what is your thinking of the models taking this to southern FL while the NHC is much further south than the guidance? What is the feeling there in MIA? Is the media properly informing people are are they being conservative as the mets in Orlando are?

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1593. CJ5
Quoting CJ5:


LOL. Reading this blog, I thought that was who the NHC was.


...and don't forget the HH. That is just Charlie Brown and Snoopy flying around in a Sopwith Camel throwing dog bowls out the cockpit.
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NHC losing their marbles if there isn't a considerble eastward shift in the forecast cone.
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Quoting Grothar:


Nobody listens to old people anymore. :)



awe Grothar - we've been listening to you for years, and years, and...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If I was an admin, I'd without a shadow of a doubt permanently ban anyone that labeled someone else as a "***-caster". Seriously lol.


He'd need to ban at least half of his paying members to accomplish that, so that's not gonna happen.
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NASA's picture of TS Isaac at 3 pm

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok now I see why you guys say that well just to let you now even if it did take that path(XTRP) (which it won't) it still won't come to me because I AM NOT THERE I am about 84 miles ESE from there there
The models are all east of the NHC track except the UKMET and ECMWF.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If I was an admin, I'd without a shadow of a doubt permanently ban anyone that labeled someone else as a "***-caster". Seriously lol.


You Bancaster!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1585. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:
yea...those NHC guys are a bunch of losers....they should trade in their education, reputations, years of experience, virtually unlimited budgets, cutting edge technology...and just lay around their Mother's house in their dirty underwear, scratching their crotches and and posting to this blog...then they'd get some respect...


now press, I have to disagree with you there..

anyone living in their mother house will not have dirty underwear..
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My local mets in SWF have changed their story and are now very worried for this area. Conditions "could" be going down hill as early as Sunday afternoon". I really can't post my thoughts right now
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Quoting presslord:
yea...those NHC guys are a bunch of losers....they should trade in their education, reputations, years of experience, virtually unlimited budgets, cutting edge technology...and just lay around their Mother's house in their dirty underwear, scratching their crotches and and posting to this blog...then they'd get some respect...

Wish there was a way to plus comments more than once, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting RitaEvac:
Reason NHC is on the far west side is because of the short term WNW track which is what you're seeing on the Xtrap direction. The model consensus is already taking it NW which is not the current direction. Therefore the NHC must stay on the west side of the models. (In other words, the direction the models are moving it are already friggin wrong)



Scratches head in disbelief.


summary of 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...16.8n 71.4w about 135 mi...215 km SSE of Port au Prince Haiti about 160 mi...255 km SW of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h present movement...NW or 305 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h minimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.publ ic.html#rgCDtQeWYqJyDgfG.99
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1581. FOREX
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Can anyone tell me what the latest Euro run is please and thank you. :)


I believe it has landfall in Biloxi.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Quoting A4Guy:
I think it should be mandatory to have your location included as part of your screen name. It would explain a LOT - especially with the home-drawn forecasts. I am sure 90% of them take the storm to the poster's doorstep. Would also expose those screaming "it's going West...not Northwest" - it will be no surprise that the direction being advocated similarly takes the storm to their house (or on a path in their general direction).
I have been advocating the wsw-w-wnw for a while based on the steering maps. I happen to live in a sheetmetal box not able to stand up to 100 mph winds and have my valubles loaded and ready to leave state.No, I don't wishcast,I call 'em the way I see 'um.
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Melbourne, FL Area Forecast Discussion
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Quoting FOREX:


It is a lot better organized than 72 hours ago. Looks like some more slow strengthening then some weakening over Cuba, then stronger again after re-emerging into the Gulf.


He's almost as bad as Ernesto. He doesn't really look too bad right now, but he doesn't have very much strong convection. I actually think once he gets his act together he'll be stronger than the NHC believe's he will be.
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Quoting KeyWestwx:
I'm at work. Can someone link me the latest European model animated. Thanks - I check back from time to time


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu rotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html
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ok now I see why you guys say that well just to let you now even if it did take that path(XTRP) (which it won't) it still won't come to me because I AM NOT THERE I am about 84 miles ESE from there there
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5 Pm Advisory:
65 Mph
994 MB.
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1574. CJ5
Quoting presslord:
yea...those NHC guys are a bunch of losers....they should trade in their education, reputations, years of experience, virtually unlimited budgets, cutting edge technology...and just lay around their Mother's house in their dirty underwear, scratching their crotches and and posting to this blog...then they'd get some respect...


LOL. Reading this blog, I thought that was who the NHC was.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Current motion could also be a little deceiving as the convection just wrapped around the center.



that is a weird looking storm
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If I was an admin, I'd without a shadow of a doubt permanently ban anyone that labeled someone else as a "***-caster". Seriously lol.

You ***-caster!
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1571. Grothar
Quoting jeffs713:


I do! They tell the BEST stories!

Seriously though... interesting how some of the models are skirting Cuba's northern coast now. That would tend to help Isaac maintain any strength, since his circulation would inhibit him a bit from making full landfall in Cuba, and he would also have his whole right side over toasty waters.


Toasty is right.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26471
Quoting presslord:
yea...those NHC guys are a bunch of losers....they should trade in their education, reputations, years of experience, virtually unlimited budgets, cutting edge technology...and just lay around their Mother's house in their dirty underwear, scratching their crotches and and posting to this blog...then they'd get some respect...


^THIS

/end thread
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Pressure down to 994 MB.
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (29.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 20° (from the NNE) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb -49m (-161 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 637m (2,090 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 270° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 1,372m (4,501 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.3°C (64.9°F) 350° (from the N) 2 knots (2 mph
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If I was an admin, I'd without a shadow of a doubt permanently ban anyone that labeled someone else as a "***-caster". Seriously lol.

Bancaster...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
1567. bwi
Another drop in the eye -- 994mb

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (29.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 20° (from the NNE) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb -49m (-161 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 637m (2,090 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 270° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 1,372m (4,501 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.3°C (64.9°F) 350° (from the N) 2 knots (2 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:55Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.91N 71.71W
Splash Time: 19:57Z

Release Location: 16.91N 71.71W View map)
Release Time: 19:55:01Z

Splash Location: 16.91N 71.71W (
Splash Time: 19:56:14Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 0° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 0 knots (0 mph)
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
5pm should be 65-70mph and 995mb pressure

I'd actually guess 65mph and 994mb (994 b/c the HH had several extrapolated 994.x readings, and I didn't notice any SFMR readings over 65mph)
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
5pm should be 65-70mph and 995mb pressure


Maybe 994 mb pressure even.
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994.2 millibars with 23 knot surface winds.

Using the wind/pressure relationship, Isaac has a barometric pressure of around 992 millibars.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Can anyone tell me what the latest Euro run is please and thank you. :)

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If I was an admin, I'd without a shadow of a doubt permanently ban anyone that labeled someone else as a "***-caster". Seriously lol.
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I'm at work. Can someone link me the latest European model animated. Thanks - I check back from time to time
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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