Isaac is strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is strengthening. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 60 mph on the east side of the center, about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, at 8:40 am EDT this morning. Winds at the aircraft's flight level of 5,000 feet were hurricane force, 76 mph. The surface pressure remained fairly high, at 1000 mb. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, and the Hurricane Hunters typically find that a storm's lowest pressure is also where the warmest temperature are. However, this morning's flight found that Isaac was still disorganized, with the storm showing almost no evidence of a warm core. Isaac's warmest temperatures were displaced 75 miles to the west of where the lowest pressure was. There were no signs of an eyewall beginning to build. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is somewhat asymmetric, with a large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region. This is interfering with both the storm's low-level inflow and upper-level outflow, but the band appears to be dying out. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows an upper-level outflow channel well-established to the north, and an intermittent outflow channel to the south.


Figure 1. Evening shot of Tropical Storm Isaac taken on August 23, 2012, by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.

Isaac's rains
Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows that Isaac is dumping some very heavy rains to the south and east of the center. Ponce, Puerto Rico had a wind gust of 37 mph this morning as a heavy band of rain moved through, and radar-estimated rainfall amounts are in excess of 7 inches for the region just north of Ponce. Power outages to 2,000 homes have been reported in Puerto Rico this morning. NOAA buoy 42085 offshore from Ponce reported a wind gust of 54 mph near 9 am EDT this morning. Rainfall estimates from microwave satellite instruments suggest that Isaac's heaviest rains are to the south of the center, and that the Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti will escape the worst of Isaac's rains. Haiti's southwest peninsula and Eastern Cuba should suffer the heaviest rains.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation from the Puerto Rico radar shows the region near Ponce has received up to 7" of rain as of 10 am EDT August 24, 2012.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have come into better agreement, thanks to the dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet yesterday afternoon and evening. Isaac should move over Haiti's southwest peninsula and then eastern Cuba, then track along the spine of Cuba before popping off into the Florida Straits on Sunday. A trough of low pressure will then pull Isaac to the northwest, and then north, towards the Central Gulf Coast. Landfall locations range from Mississippi (06Z HWRF model run) to the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee (06Z GFDL model run.) It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall over the Tennessee Valley for several days.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall total ending at 2 am EDT Wednesday August 29, from Tropical Storm Isaac. Graphics were generated from the 6Z (2 am EDT) August 24, 2012 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has not intensified as much as predicted, and I think that the storm's very large size is partially responsible for that. It's tough to spin up as much atmosphere as Isaac is attempting to do very quickly. Conditions remain favorable for intensification today, with wind shear low, 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures warm, 29°C, and dry air mostly mixed out of the storm's core. The large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region, appears to be dying out now, which will help the storm grow more organized. The storm's structure has improved considerably between 9 am - 10 am EDT, with a fairly tight center forming, exposed to view, on the north edge of Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms. A curved band of heavy thunderstorms is now trying to wrap around this center to the northeast, and this band will bring very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic this afternoon. I expect that the Hurricane Hunters will observe a partial eyewall in their vortex reports between 2 - 4 pm EDT this afternoon. The storm's large size and disorganized structure suggests that Isaac will be able to intensify only slowly today, and will have top winds of 70 - 75 mph before encountering Southwest Haiti and Eastern Cuba tonight and Saturday. Isaac will likely be a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate. The upper-level wind pattern favorable may be quite favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm--though the models disagree on whether or not this anticyclone will set up directly over Isaac or not. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane. It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 17% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. Tampa is in the NHC cone of uncertainty, though near the edge of it. At a minimum, Tampa will receive very heavy rains and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Isaac is going to be hard-pressed to bring hurricane-force winds to the city, though, since any path that takes it close to Tampa would keep the storm too close to land for significant intensification to occur. I put the odds of a mass evacuation being ordered for Tampa during the convention at 1%. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday has been designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts that 97L will track west-northwest over the next few days, and encounter a region of high wind shear associated with an upper-level low on Monday and Tuesday. This low may be capable of tearing the storm apart, as happened to Tropical Storm Joyce. None of the models currently foresee that 97L will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands, but 97L may pass near Bermuda 7 - 8 days from now.



20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Today, August 24, is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds--one of only three Category 5 hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. With Isaac churning through the Caribbean this week, I didn't have time to prepare a special post on Andrew, but our Hurricane Andrew archive page has links to satellite and radar images, newspaper headlines, and 49 YouTube videos. Here's an additional link for an Andrew damage video shot by wunderblogger/storm chaser Mike Theiss, when he was 14 years old.

Jeff Masters

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911. ProgressivePulse
5:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Right off the coast of DR. and running a little starboard. Not a minion circulation after all.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
910. chrisdscane
5:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
Dry air entrainment from the western Caribbean and now downsloping off of Hispaniola's mountains into the NW quad is definitely Isaac's big problem right now. Center is well-defined though, finally.




why are people saying he's jogging west?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
909. chevycanes
5:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Sub-1000?!
What is the NHC thinking?!
I dont see any reason for them to bring it down to 997.

it's called a ship report in the area. clearly says it in the advisory.

a buoy close by had 999 a couple of hrs ago.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
908. SouthTXWX
5:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I tried to tell you that earlier and you told me to check my eyes. Well maybe you need to do that.



Maybe he doesnt have vision insurance? ever think of that? not everyone is blessed with eyes into the future like you, and your 100mph hurricane landfall prediction at Haiti. lol
Member Since: February 28, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 66
907. nrtiwlnvragn
5:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
If you haven't seen the pictures from Hurricane Andrew, pick up a paper. That is what you see, the memory of what a storm can really do. See they are really hard to forecast, you should be following all the advice to stock non-perisable food, water , get cash and gas and board up your windows.


Just look at the video in Dr. Masters post, brought back bad memories.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11210
906. StormTracker2K
5:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


Wait, you're agreeing with me today? Lol.


I just wasn't agreeing with you a few days ago when you were saying NC. That's all.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
905. southfla
5:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS ensembles suck Isaac NNW into Hispaniola and then bypass a lot of central Cuba. Still mostly west of Florida but a lot more members farther east than there were yesterday.


Your original east of Florida track may play out yet. I think you are right on with your latest track though. Kind of surprised that the NHC seems to be putting so much emphasis on Isaac getting hung up along the northern Cuban coast, but I suppose they do stick to the consensus forecast pretty closely.

I complimented you on your web site yesterday, don't know if you saw that. Very nice job.
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
904. SouthDadeFish
5:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z GFDL


HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.53 LAT: 15.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.26
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.24 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.08
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 17.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.64
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.88 LAT: 19.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.23
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -75.05 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.89
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -76.14 LAT: 21.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.67
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 22.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.73
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.69 LAT: 23.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.59
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -79.76 LAT: 24.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.82
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.71 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.53
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -81.58 LAT: 25.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.82
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -82.71 LAT: 26.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.18
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -83.61 LAT: 27.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.58
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -84.39 LAT: 28.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.38
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -85.17 LAT: 28.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.38
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.85 LAT: 29.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.83
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -86.22 LAT: 30.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.31
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -86.41 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.50
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -86.25 LAT: 31.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.85
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -85.97 LAT: 32.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.96
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.45 LAT: 32.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.70
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.51 LAT: 33.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.42


Link?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
903. Seflhurricane
5:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
if the NW motion continues Isaac will emerge just west of grand inagua in the bahamas and come much closer to Southern florida, this is not good at all and the TCHP over the florida traits is high
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
902. Levi32
5:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Dry air entrainment from the western Caribbean and now downsloping off of Hispaniola's mountains into the NW quad is definitely Isaac's big problem right now. Center is well-defined though, finally.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
901. Gino99
5:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Link

Isaac's loop.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
Quoting Seflhurricane:
levi apprently the NW movement has begun that would mean a stronger system since it will not be over cuba that long at all


May not even go over Cuba at all. Some of the models are beginning to show that now.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting hurricanehanna:
2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 16.8°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Sub-1000?!
What is the NHC thinking?!
I dont see any reason for them to bring it down to 997.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 24

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 3.0 LONG: -70.60 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.10 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 9.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.10 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 15.0 LONG: -72.80 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.50 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 21.0 LONG: -74.10 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 27.0 LONG: -75.50 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 33.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 39.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 23.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.90 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 45.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -79.80 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 51.0 LONG: -80.40 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.90 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 57.0 LONG: -81.30 LAT: 25.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -81.60 LAT: 25.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 63.0 LONG: -81.90 LAT: 25.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -82.30 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 69.0 LONG: -82.80 LAT: 26.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -83.50 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 75.0 LONG: -84.00 LAT: 27.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -84.30 LAT: 27.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 81.0 LONG: -84.60 LAT: 27.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -84.90 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00
HOUR: 87.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.80 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 93.0 LONG: -86.10 LAT: 29.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -86.20 LAT: 29.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 99.0 LONG: -86.40 LAT: 30.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -86.60 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 105.0 LONG: -86.80 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 31.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 111.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 31.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 117.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 31.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -86.60 LAT: 32.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 123.0 LONG: -86.50 LAT: 32.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 32.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11210
Quoting jambev:
Interestingly, despite Isaac strengthening,the deep convection over the system has waned in the last hour or so as seen in wv loops.


Mid day warms the cloud tops, so the storm needs to be massively stronger in order to maintain the same color on enhanced IR, because it has to push the cloud tops higher to make up for the difference.

Remember, Weather infrared usually uses a reversed color scale with larger and more distinct temperature ranges compared to thermal imagining in other applications.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I bet this goes up the FL east coast just as you said yesterday. Very deep trough over the eastern Gulf today.





Wait, you're agreeing with me today? Lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting StormTracker2K:
At this point I think the Euro needs to be upgraded as how many times is this model going to trash a forecast. This looks like another Debby disaster for the NHC. Somebody there better wake up.



I'm sure they are there sleeping. Doubt anyone is even awake.
Member Since: February 28, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 66
Pressure down to 997
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Tropical Storm ISAAC
...ISAAC TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 16.8°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


hahhah..I was sooo wrong :*(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaboy14:
wow the nhc is just pretty stupid. how is he moving NW????? how??? not buying it


I tried to tell you that earlier and you told me to check my eyes. Well maybe you need to do that.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

0 hrs
12z euro
997 mb

initializing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One thing I learned from Hurricane Charlie is the local mets will only forcast what the NHC is saying, however, they are making it sound like it IS set in stone and nothing more than a few rain bans and breezy conditions. A lot of ppl will stop watching and to me, that could be dangerous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS ensembles suck Isaac NNW into Hispaniola and then bypass a lot of central Cuba. Still mostly west of Florida but a lot more members farther east than there were yesterday.

levi apprently the NW movement has begun that would mean a stronger system since it will not be over cuba that long at all
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Made this before the latest advisory but still its my latest track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Welcome to DMIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There we go:

...ISAAC TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 16.8°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkdaime:
I live in s florida I see people are starting yo put up there shutters I just moved here guess I don't know what I'm in for
If you haven't seen the pictures from Hurricane Andrew, pick up a paper. That is what you see, the memory of what a storm can really do. See they are really hard to forecast, you should be following all the advice to stock non-perisable food, water , get cash and gas and board up your windows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks for the info GTcooliebal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS ensembles suck Isaac NNW into Hispaniola and then bypass a lot of central Cuba. Still mostly west of Florida but a lot more members farther east than there were yesterday.



I bet this goes up the FL east coast just as you said yesterday. Very deep trough over the eastern Gulf today.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
so indeed the NW jog has become a trend that means less time over land guys not good
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Quoting hurricanehanna:
2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 16.8°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
I agree with those coordinates and movement.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting floridaboy14:
wow the nhc is just pretty stupid. how is he moving NW????? how??? not buying it

and you are the expert? lmao.

Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
At this point I think the Euro needs to be upgraded as how many times is this model going to trash a forecast. This looks like another Debby disaster for the NHC. Somebody there better wake up.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
12z GFS ensembles suck Isaac NNW into Hispaniola and then bypass a lot of central Cuba. Still mostly west of Florida but a lot more members farther east than there were yesterday.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Tropical Storm ISAAC
...ISAAC TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 16.8°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z GFDL


HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.53 LAT: 15.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.26
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.24 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.08
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 17.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.64
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.88 LAT: 19.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.23
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -75.05 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.89
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -76.14 LAT: 21.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.67
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 22.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.73
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.69 LAT: 23.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.59
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -79.76 LAT: 24.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.82
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.71 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.53
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -81.58 LAT: 25.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.82
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -82.71 LAT: 26.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.18
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -83.61 LAT: 27.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.58
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -84.39 LAT: 28.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.38
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -85.17 LAT: 28.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.38
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.85 LAT: 29.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.83
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -86.22 LAT: 30.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.31
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -86.41 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.50
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -86.25 LAT: 31.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.85
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -85.97 LAT: 32.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.96
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.45 LAT: 32.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.70
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.51 LAT: 33.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.42
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11210
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looking close up the center is at 16.5N and 71,3 W , my opinion


I agree with you..I think it's moving almost due west..(so I must be wrong..lol)
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Quoting jambev:
Interestingly, despite Isaac strengthening,the deep convection over the system has waned in the last hour or so as seen in wv loops.


very large system in diameter. harder to drag it all in
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah they were rolling them out one after another. Where is El Nino? I know, I know he'll show up later.


El Nino? I think is lying us
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok I see two places where the LLC could be

#1 near 17.1N 71.0W
#2 near 16.3N 71.0W
back in about 30mins or so to check on how RECON is doing


I got it at 16.4 and 71.1 (I zoomed in..you can see it moving...wwwwwnw. LOL!
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2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 16.8°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Time: 17:22:00Z
Coordinates: 18.15N 65.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 505.8 mb (~ 14.94 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,777 meters (~ 18,953 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 283 meters (~ 928 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 130° at 29 knots (From the SE at ~ 33.3 mph)
Air Temp: -5.0°C* (~ 23.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -5.0°C* (~ 23.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
Let's stipulate that, at 19k feet, we're not going to get much useful data. The hunter is heading due west over Puerto Rico at the moment. We'll start to get some useful readings when it cross the island, drops down to a lower altitude, and takes a more southerly heading toward the core.
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Quoting jambev:
Interestingly, despite Isaac strengthening,the deep convection over the system has waned in the last hour or so as seen in wv loops.
that is normal but convection is firing around the center especially on the east/se side
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Interestingly, despite Isaac strengthening,the deep convection over the system has waned in the last hour or so as seen in wv loops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looking close up the center is at 16.5N and 71,3 W , my opinion
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I can't wait to read the NHC's 5:00 Discussion and see what have to say about the Euro flipping.


This is set up for the NHC to look really bad. It's almost like they are destin to make sure FL is caught off guard. Heck the mets in orlando are saying orlando has nothing to worry about now. Very strange watching the news here in Orlando as they fully believe the NHC is right on the money and we can expect little effects.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Jax82:
da mets in Jax seem to think we are going to get 30-65mph winds next tuesday.

I am in JAX too, well I live in Starke but stationed at NAS, that is kind of weird to see that
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Quoting reedzone:


Correction: 85W... 80W is the East Coast of FL.
thx
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.