Isaac is strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is strengthening. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 60 mph on the east side of the center, about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, at 8:40 am EDT this morning. Winds at the aircraft's flight level of 5,000 feet were hurricane force, 76 mph. The surface pressure remained fairly high, at 1000 mb. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, and the Hurricane Hunters typically find that a storm's lowest pressure is also where the warmest temperature are. However, this morning's flight found that Isaac was still disorganized, with the storm showing almost no evidence of a warm core. Isaac's warmest temperatures were displaced 75 miles to the west of where the lowest pressure was. There were no signs of an eyewall beginning to build. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is somewhat asymmetric, with a large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region. This is interfering with both the storm's low-level inflow and upper-level outflow, but the band appears to be dying out. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows an upper-level outflow channel well-established to the north, and an intermittent outflow channel to the south.


Figure 1. Evening shot of Tropical Storm Isaac taken on August 23, 2012, by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.

Isaac's rains
Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows that Isaac is dumping some very heavy rains to the south and east of the center. Ponce, Puerto Rico had a wind gust of 37 mph this morning as a heavy band of rain moved through, and radar-estimated rainfall amounts are in excess of 7 inches for the region just north of Ponce. Power outages to 2,000 homes have been reported in Puerto Rico this morning. NOAA buoy 42085 offshore from Ponce reported a wind gust of 54 mph near 9 am EDT this morning. Rainfall estimates from microwave satellite instruments suggest that Isaac's heaviest rains are to the south of the center, and that the Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti will escape the worst of Isaac's rains. Haiti's southwest peninsula and Eastern Cuba should suffer the heaviest rains.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation from the Puerto Rico radar shows the region near Ponce has received up to 7" of rain as of 10 am EDT August 24, 2012.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have come into better agreement, thanks to the dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet yesterday afternoon and evening. Isaac should move over Haiti's southwest peninsula and then eastern Cuba, then track along the spine of Cuba before popping off into the Florida Straits on Sunday. A trough of low pressure will then pull Isaac to the northwest, and then north, towards the Central Gulf Coast. Landfall locations range from Mississippi (06Z HWRF model run) to the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee (06Z GFDL model run.) It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall over the Tennessee Valley for several days.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall total ending at 2 am EDT Wednesday August 29, from Tropical Storm Isaac. Graphics were generated from the 6Z (2 am EDT) August 24, 2012 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has not intensified as much as predicted, and I think that the storm's very large size is partially responsible for that. It's tough to spin up as much atmosphere as Isaac is attempting to do very quickly. Conditions remain favorable for intensification today, with wind shear low, 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures warm, 29°C, and dry air mostly mixed out of the storm's core. The large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region, appears to be dying out now, which will help the storm grow more organized. The storm's structure has improved considerably between 9 am - 10 am EDT, with a fairly tight center forming, exposed to view, on the north edge of Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms. A curved band of heavy thunderstorms is now trying to wrap around this center to the northeast, and this band will bring very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic this afternoon. I expect that the Hurricane Hunters will observe a partial eyewall in their vortex reports between 2 - 4 pm EDT this afternoon. The storm's large size and disorganized structure suggests that Isaac will be able to intensify only slowly today, and will have top winds of 70 - 75 mph before encountering Southwest Haiti and Eastern Cuba tonight and Saturday. Isaac will likely be a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate. The upper-level wind pattern favorable may be quite favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm--though the models disagree on whether or not this anticyclone will set up directly over Isaac or not. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane. It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 17% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. Tampa is in the NHC cone of uncertainty, though near the edge of it. At a minimum, Tampa will receive very heavy rains and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Isaac is going to be hard-pressed to bring hurricane-force winds to the city, though, since any path that takes it close to Tampa would keep the storm too close to land for significant intensification to occur. I put the odds of a mass evacuation being ordered for Tampa during the convention at 1%. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday has been designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts that 97L will track west-northwest over the next few days, and encounter a region of high wind shear associated with an upper-level low on Monday and Tuesday. This low may be capable of tearing the storm apart, as happened to Tropical Storm Joyce. None of the models currently foresee that 97L will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands, but 97L may pass near Bermuda 7 - 8 days from now.



20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Today, August 24, is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds--one of only three Category 5 hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. With Isaac churning through the Caribbean this week, I didn't have time to prepare a special post on Andrew, but our Hurricane Andrew archive page has links to satellite and radar images, newspaper headlines, and 49 YouTube videos. Here's an additional link for an Andrew damage video shot by wunderblogger/storm chaser Mike Theiss, when he was 14 years old.

Jeff Masters

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Looking at the factors in play on the Euro it looks like it will kick into the gulf rather substantially away from the FL W coast then turn N or NNE into the panhandle. We'll see....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Uh, this one?


AL 09L GFSO 000 159N 703W 41 1002
AL 09L GFSO 006 168N 711W 45 1002
AL 09L GFSO 012 179N 717W 43 1001
AL 09L GFSO 018 193N 733W 44 1001
AL 09L GFSO 024 202N 745W 46 1001
AL 09L GFSO 030 210N 757W 38 1001
AL 09L GFSO 036 222N 762W 47 999
AL 09L GFSO 042 231N 778W 52 997
AL 09L GFSO 048 238N 787W 50 996
AL 09L GFSO 054 248N 797W 47 996
AL 09L GFSO 060 255N 805W 50 994
AL 09L GFSO 066 259N 815W 47 994
AL 09L GFSO 072 267N 824W 47 995
AL 09L GFSO 078 276N 833W 47 996
AL 09L GFSO 084 284N 840W 56 994
AL 09L GFSO 090 292N 844W 56 994
AL 09L GFSO 096 305N 850W 41 994
AL 09L GFSO 102 311N 853W 37 996
AL 09L GFSO 108 316N 850W 34 997
AL 09L GFSO 114 318N 845W 29 998
AL 09L GFSO 120 327N 835W 27 999
AL 09L GFSO 126 336N 821W 32 999
AL 09L GFSO 132 343N 799W 30 1000
AL 09L GFSO 138 346N 784W 32 999
AL 09L GFSO 144 346N 770W 36 1001
AL 09L GFSO 150 346N 753W 39 1003
AL 09L GFSO 156 341N 741W 35 1005
AL 09L GFSO 162 337N 728W 31 1006
AL 09L GFSO 168 335N 716W 28 1009
AL 09L GFSO 174 335N 706W 25 1011
AL 09L GFSO 180 334N 695W 23 1012
AL 09L GFSO 192 331N 686W 21 1014
AL 09L GFSO 204 334N 670W 21 1015
AL 09L GFSO 216 338N 650W 21 1014
AL 09L GFSO 228 339N 629W 16 1014


Gfs Initialized Isaac Wrong, again on 12z... I would like to see the GFS initialize Isaac correctly, like the Euro did at 00z, and see what it has to say, then.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting hurricanehanna:
I always find this little tool handy to see the motion...

Link



to many htt in the addy hanna
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4112
Heading NW toward Fort Myers with pressure of 981mb.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
WOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now that it is finally getting better developed and stronger, it's not even going to get into the GOM and will be east of Florida in the Atlantic. you can write this one off. The early runs of the models had everyone alarmed unnecessarily. Goes to show you how inaccurate they are when a storm is very weak or in the very early stages of development.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Uh, this one?


AL 09L GFSO 000 159N 703W 41 1002
AL 09L GFSO 006 168N 711W 45 1002
AL 09L GFSO 012 179N 717W 43 1001
AL 09L GFSO 018 193N 733W 44 1001
AL 09L GFSO 024 202N 745W 46 1001
AL 09L GFSO 030 210N 757W 38 1001
AL 09L GFSO 036 222N 762W 47 999
AL 09L GFSO 042 231N 778W 52 997
AL 09L GFSO 048 238N 787W 50 996
AL 09L GFSO 054 248N 797W 47 996
AL 09L GFSO 060 255N 805W 50 994

AL 09L GFSO 066 259N 815W 47 994
AL 09L GFSO 072 267N 824W 47 995
AL 09L GFSO 078 276N 833W 47 996
AL 09L GFSO 084 284N 840W 56 994
AL 09L GFSO 090 292N 844W 56 994
AL 09L GFSO 096 305N 850W 41 994
AL 09L GFSO 102 311N 853W 37 996
AL 09L GFSO 108 316N 850W 34 997
AL 09L GFSO 114 318N 845W 29 998
AL 09L GFSO 120 327N 835W 27 999
AL 09L GFSO 126 336N 821W 32 999
AL 09L GFSO 132 343N 799W 30 1000
AL 09L GFSO 138 346N 784W 32 999
AL 09L GFSO 144 346N 770W 36 1001
AL 09L GFSO 150 346N 753W 39 1003
AL 09L GFSO 156 341N 741W 35 1005
AL 09L GFSO 162 337N 728W 31 1006
AL 09L GFSO 168 335N 716W 28 1009
AL 09L GFSO 174 335N 706W 25 1011
AL 09L GFSO 180 334N 695W 23 1012
AL 09L GFSO 192 331N 686W 21 1014
AL 09L GFSO 204 334N 670W 21 1015
AL 09L GFSO 216 338N 650W 21 1014
AL 09L GFSO 228 339N 629W 16 1014



hmmmm --- I think they are trying to tell us something
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Can someone post the European model please?
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12z Euro 24 hrs.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Very strong hurricane on the GFDL and right over Miami.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats not hi9s forecast thats bogus and someone copied his logo/name


What!? You mean I rented out this sled dog team for nothing!?
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Quoting StormThug:
Models could easily shift back west


At this point, Isaac could still go anywhere he pleases... this is the craziest storm I have seen in a while. He has yet to do anything he is forecasted to do.
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This storm will fall on the far eastern side of the cone. I predict that it will leave the very eastern side of Cuba. This leave over 300 miles until South Florida. I think landfall will be about 20 miles west of Miami as a cat 2.
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Isaac has a trick up his sleeve, and he will stay unpredictable. SoFla needs to watch closely now, as he may spend more time over water.
Member Since: February 28, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 66
inb4 Miami needs to be ready for a Cat 3!!!!
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Quoting southfla:


Your original east of Florida track may play out yet. I think you are right on with your latest track though. Kind of surprised that the NHC seems to be putting so much emphasis on Isaac getting hung up along the northern Cuban coast, but I suppose they do stick to the consensus forecast pretty closely.

I complimented you on your web site yesterday, don't know if you saw that. Very nice job.


Thank you. I'm glad you like my site.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
GFDL is now on S FL
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PR radar has some isolated 26 hour rain total estimates of 7 to 10 inches.

There is still one last strong band hanging around, but it looks like the worst of that band is missing the island to the east for now...

Though one big cell is about to hit the eastern end of the island...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting StormThug:
Models could easily shift back west
And they could easily shift back towards the Cayman Islands.

{Sarcasm Flag: On}
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting zoomiami:


Don't like this one either -- brings it right to Miami at hour 51. Don't you have other choices?


Uh, this one?


AL 09L GFSO 000 159N 703W 41 1002
AL 09L GFSO 006 168N 711W 45 1002
AL 09L GFSO 012 179N 717W 43 1001
AL 09L GFSO 018 193N 733W 44 1001
AL 09L GFSO 024 202N 745W 46 1001
AL 09L GFSO 030 210N 757W 38 1001
AL 09L GFSO 036 222N 762W 47 999
AL 09L GFSO 042 231N 778W 52 997
AL 09L GFSO 048 238N 787W 50 996
AL 09L GFSO 054 248N 797W 47 996
AL 09L GFSO 060 255N 805W 50 994
AL 09L GFSO 066 259N 815W 47 994
AL 09L GFSO 072 267N 824W 47 995
AL 09L GFSO 078 276N 833W 47 996
AL 09L GFSO 084 284N 840W 56 994
AL 09L GFSO 090 292N 844W 56 994
AL 09L GFSO 096 305N 850W 41 994
AL 09L GFSO 102 311N 853W 37 996
AL 09L GFSO 108 316N 850W 34 997
AL 09L GFSO 114 318N 845W 29 998
AL 09L GFSO 120 327N 835W 27 999
AL 09L GFSO 126 336N 821W 32 999
AL 09L GFSO 132 343N 799W 30 1000
AL 09L GFSO 138 346N 784W 32 999
AL 09L GFSO 144 346N 770W 36 1001
AL 09L GFSO 150 346N 753W 39 1003
AL 09L GFSO 156 341N 741W 35 1005
AL 09L GFSO 162 337N 728W 31 1006
AL 09L GFSO 168 335N 716W 28 1009
AL 09L GFSO 174 335N 706W 25 1011
AL 09L GFSO 180 334N 695W 23 1012
AL 09L GFSO 192 331N 686W 21 1014
AL 09L GFSO 204 334N 670W 21 1015
AL 09L GFSO 216 338N 650W 21 1014
AL 09L GFSO 228 339N 629W 16 1014
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10933
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST. ISAAC IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H..AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...PASS NEAR OR OVER HAITI
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...AND ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON A SHIP REPORT IS 997
MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN
CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Euro through 48 says thanks other models but I think I'll go WNW.
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Sorry if this is a dumb question. I was looking at model outputs...

What does 500mb height translate to in altitude (roughly). Is there a "standard altitude" for 500mb, 850mb heights. (e.g. analagous to STP)

So, the 500mb plot forms a surface that raises and dips according to the local pressure. Lows are depressions and highs are ridges. The slope of the surface drives wind speed (caused by air moving from high to low).

Is that close to correct?


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Issac has the door open for him to ride up the FL east coast. More than likely it goes up the west coast but the door is open for the east now as well.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
937. CJ5
Quoting Tanner27:
IS IT POSSIBLE IT WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EFFECT FL MORE THAN THEY ARE PREDICTING?


Yes.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
....
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Models could easily shift back west
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934. wpb
Quoting wpb:
af recon about an hour +away
p-3 just departed tampa.. 4 hour to go
thanks
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I always find this little tool handy to see the motion...

Link
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
931. FOREX
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This is set up for the NHC to look really bad. It's almost like they are destin to make sure FL is caught off guard. Heck the mets in orlando are saying orlando has nothing to worry about now. Very strange watching the news here in Orlando as they fully believe the NHC is right on the money and we can expect little effects.



Local METS in Panama City Beach becoming more confident that the storm will go well to the East because of the trough in the Gulf. This is making me feel a lot better.
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best.day.of.summer..e.cen.florida
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


May not even go over Cuba at all. Some of the models are beginning to show that now.

Looks to me as if it may miss Haiti and skim just south of cuba,perhaps cross over further west.jmo
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Recon still not descending yet.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I just wasn't agreeing with you a few days ago when you were saying NC. That's all.


I never showed a Carolinas landfall, just east Florida scrape or northern Bahamas, landfall only implied either northern Florida, Georgia, or potentially South Carolina on the earlier track before Isaac reformed significantly to the southwest.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting floridaboy14:
wow the nhc is just pretty stupid. how is he moving NW????? how??? not buying it


11am 16.3N 70.8W
2pm 16.8N 71.4W

So .5N .6W... that's NW.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yep, basically over the top of me.


Spell out what your user name stands for? Probably a lot of people on here who don't know. Please
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924. wpb
af recon about an hour +away
p-3 just departed tampa.. 4 hour to go
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Quoting chevycanes:

it's called a ship report in the area. clearly says it in the advisory.

a buoy close by had 999 a couple of hrs ago.

Sorry.
Not my fault havent been fully obsessed today. Just popped in, and saw that. Excuse me for stating my opinion, and not exactly knowing the information. Back off.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
IS IT POSSIBLE IT WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EFFECT FL MORE THAN THEY ARE PREDICTING?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 24

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 3.0 LONG: -70.60 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.10 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 9.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.10 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 15.0 LONG: -72.80 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.50 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 21.0 LONG: -74.10 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 27.0 LONG: -75.50 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 33.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 39.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 23.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.90 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 45.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -79.80 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 51.0 LONG: -80.40 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.90 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 57.0 LONG: -81.30 LAT: 25.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -81.60 LAT: 25.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 63.0 LONG: -81.90 LAT: 25.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -82.30 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 69.0 LONG: -82.80 LAT: 26.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -83.50 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 75.0 LONG: -84.00 LAT: 27.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -84.30 LAT: 27.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 81.0 LONG: -84.60 LAT: 27.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -84.90 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00
HOUR: 87.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.80 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 93.0 LONG: -86.10 LAT: 29.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -86.20 LAT: 29.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 99.0 LONG: -86.40 LAT: 30.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -86.60 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 105.0 LONG: -86.80 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 31.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 111.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 31.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 117.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 31.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -86.60 LAT: 32.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 123.0 LONG: -86.50 LAT: 32.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 32.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00


Don't like this one either -- brings it right to Miami at hour 51. Don't you have other choices?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
No changes to the watches and warnings in this advisory, however, I suspect later on today or tonight there will be advisories issued for South FL.
I'd say so:

INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No changes to the watches and warnings in this advisory, however, I suspect later on today or tonight there will be advisories issued for South FL.

This is as of right now from the 2PM advisory:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* JAMAICA
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting zoomiami:


If this works right the bolded coordinates place the storm not too far off miami at 25.7 80.4


Yep, basically over the top of me.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10933
GFDL shifted north as well. Only one left is the Euro.




DAMM!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
From JB at Weatherbell: The track I have is east of the hurricane center with the land fall near or just southwest of Miami a track up through the state a worry The storm may be as strong as a cat 2 or 3 with the first land fall. There is still a chance this tries to ride up the east coast of FLorida.



While it will weaken while over land Monday into Tuesday, its closeness to water will maintain it as a storm that causes major flooding problems as opposed to wind and storm surge with the landfall. The future path lessens the threat to gulf oil areas and to the Florida Panhandle. However the storm is liable to maintain tropical storm conditions in a journey ne through the coastal carolinas, perhaps becoming a hurricane again on its way northeast out to sea.


This is quite different from the NHC at this time, but they are probably going to have to adjust their track later.


The big story is that we have a several billion dollar storm heading for Florida as this large storm will become a hurricane before it reaches the US. In fact the danger is that in the 24 hours the storm is over the Fla straits it could intensify rapidly. The 1935 labor day hurricane went from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in 36 hours. While that is the extreme case, a hurricane hit on Florida with the state the center point of Isaacs wrath into Tuesday is more likely than the option into the oil rich regions


The track represents the midpoint between the eastward course over or on the east coast of Florida, and the national hurricane center more ambitious path to the west, which if it materializes would be a major hurricane IMO
for the oil regions


om JB at Weatherbell:
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Quoting stormchaser19:


El Nino? I think is lying us

El Nino has faded over the past 2 weeks...
Definately means that the Atlantic will stay active through September, at least.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z GFDL


HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.53 LAT: 15.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.26
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.24 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.08
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 17.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.64
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.88 LAT: 19.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.23
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -75.05 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.89
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -76.14 LAT: 21.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.67
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 22.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.73
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.69 LAT: 23.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.59
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -79.76 LAT: 24.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.82
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.71 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.53
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -81.58 LAT: 25.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.82
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -82.71 LAT: 26.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.18
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -83.61 LAT: 27.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.58
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -84.39 LAT: 28.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.38
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -85.17 LAT: 28.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.38
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.85 LAT: 29.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.83
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -86.22 LAT: 30.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.31
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -86.41 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.50
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -86.25 LAT: 31.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.85
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -85.97 LAT: 32.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.96
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.45 LAT: 32.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.70
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.51 LAT: 33.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.42


If this works right the bolded coordinates place the storm not too far off miami at 25.7 80.4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
912. A4Guy
Quoting floridaboy14:
wow the nhc is just pretty stupid. how is he moving NW????? how??? not buying it


Is the "14" in your screen name your age, or your IQ...or both, perhaps?
Stop bashing the NHC. THey know what they are doing...much more so than an amateur blogger sitting at home on his parent's couch.
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Right off the coast of DR. and running a little starboard. Not a minion circulation after all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.