Isaac is strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is strengthening. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 60 mph on the east side of the center, about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, at 8:40 am EDT this morning. Winds at the aircraft's flight level of 5,000 feet were hurricane force, 76 mph. The surface pressure remained fairly high, at 1000 mb. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, and the Hurricane Hunters typically find that a storm's lowest pressure is also where the warmest temperature are. However, this morning's flight found that Isaac was still disorganized, with the storm showing almost no evidence of a warm core. Isaac's warmest temperatures were displaced 75 miles to the west of where the lowest pressure was. There were no signs of an eyewall beginning to build. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is somewhat asymmetric, with a large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region. This is interfering with both the storm's low-level inflow and upper-level outflow, but the band appears to be dying out. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows an upper-level outflow channel well-established to the north, and an intermittent outflow channel to the south.


Figure 1. Evening shot of Tropical Storm Isaac taken on August 23, 2012, by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.

Isaac's rains
Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows that Isaac is dumping some very heavy rains to the south and east of the center. Ponce, Puerto Rico had a wind gust of 37 mph this morning as a heavy band of rain moved through, and radar-estimated rainfall amounts are in excess of 7 inches for the region just north of Ponce. Power outages to 2,000 homes have been reported in Puerto Rico this morning. NOAA buoy 42085 offshore from Ponce reported a wind gust of 54 mph near 9 am EDT this morning. Rainfall estimates from microwave satellite instruments suggest that Isaac's heaviest rains are to the south of the center, and that the Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti will escape the worst of Isaac's rains. Haiti's southwest peninsula and Eastern Cuba should suffer the heaviest rains.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation from the Puerto Rico radar shows the region near Ponce has received up to 7" of rain as of 10 am EDT August 24, 2012.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have come into better agreement, thanks to the dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet yesterday afternoon and evening. Isaac should move over Haiti's southwest peninsula and then eastern Cuba, then track along the spine of Cuba before popping off into the Florida Straits on Sunday. A trough of low pressure will then pull Isaac to the northwest, and then north, towards the Central Gulf Coast. Landfall locations range from Mississippi (06Z HWRF model run) to the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee (06Z GFDL model run.) It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall over the Tennessee Valley for several days.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall total ending at 2 am EDT Wednesday August 29, from Tropical Storm Isaac. Graphics were generated from the 6Z (2 am EDT) August 24, 2012 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has not intensified as much as predicted, and I think that the storm's very large size is partially responsible for that. It's tough to spin up as much atmosphere as Isaac is attempting to do very quickly. Conditions remain favorable for intensification today, with wind shear low, 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures warm, 29°C, and dry air mostly mixed out of the storm's core. The large band of intense thunderstorms to the east, separated from the core region, appears to be dying out now, which will help the storm grow more organized. The storm's structure has improved considerably between 9 am - 10 am EDT, with a fairly tight center forming, exposed to view, on the north edge of Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms. A curved band of heavy thunderstorms is now trying to wrap around this center to the northeast, and this band will bring very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic this afternoon. I expect that the Hurricane Hunters will observe a partial eyewall in their vortex reports between 2 - 4 pm EDT this afternoon. The storm's large size and disorganized structure suggests that Isaac will be able to intensify only slowly today, and will have top winds of 70 - 75 mph before encountering Southwest Haiti and Eastern Cuba tonight and Saturday. Isaac will likely be a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate. The upper-level wind pattern favorable may be quite favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm--though the models disagree on whether or not this anticyclone will set up directly over Isaac or not. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane. It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 17% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. Tampa is in the NHC cone of uncertainty, though near the edge of it. At a minimum, Tampa will receive very heavy rains and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Isaac is going to be hard-pressed to bring hurricane-force winds to the city, though, since any path that takes it close to Tampa would keep the storm too close to land for significant intensification to occur. I put the odds of a mass evacuation being ordered for Tampa during the convention at 1%. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday has been designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts that 97L will track west-northwest over the next few days, and encounter a region of high wind shear associated with an upper-level low on Monday and Tuesday. This low may be capable of tearing the storm apart, as happened to Tropical Storm Joyce. None of the models currently foresee that 97L will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands, but 97L may pass near Bermuda 7 - 8 days from now.



20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Today, August 24, is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds--one of only three Category 5 hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. With Isaac churning through the Caribbean this week, I didn't have time to prepare a special post on Andrew, but our Hurricane Andrew archive page has links to satellite and radar images, newspaper headlines, and 49 YouTube videos. Here's an additional link for an Andrew damage video shot by wunderblogger/storm chaser Mike Theiss, when he was 14 years old.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:


because apparently the SE only consists of Florida..LOL..but yeah, the Carolinas and points northward was the original target for the Conus when the GFS started showing Isaac..dont be surprised if it comes back to that scenario..


lol hey ncstorm... i would second that... there are quite a few times i remember sitting on Hatteras Island watching the GFS go right back to it's original forecast days out and come close to verifying...

i'm sure the entire pattern was different (i would be interested if anyone knows), but Floyd comes to mind....
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Quoting VR46L:


Sadly I dont believe that kind of humor is allowed here anymore


Anyways Back on topic

Gordon in rainbow

as soon as it gets its act t/g it slams into dr/hatian border..i swear this thing cant catch a break
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1359. GoWVU
WOW, go to work today and get home and seems like we might be seeing a little of Issac here in Charleston SC... I think it was Levi that said this was going to be a East Coast storm?? Funny thing nothing on the local news about this shift to the east....
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There's a big dry slot to the right of that big eastern band.
Since I apparently fail at posting loops, please look at the Tropical Atlantic WV loop. The patch west of Isaac is on the decline.
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HH's are finding this is the best Isaac has been. finally have a well defined COC with the winds wrapping around the way they should.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
1356. pottery
Quoting VR46L:


LOL made mistake, sorry Ammended it Its Issac

:):))
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There's a big dry slot to the right of that big eastern band.


The storm has had dry air slice from the S.A. continent ever since it entered the Caribbean.

It had dry air and shear suppression on the N side it's entire life, though for different reasons today(land) vs yesterday (ULL and SAL).


Lots of dry air issues always with this thing.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


For the first time in Isaac's life, the strongest convection is in the northeast quadrant of the storm.
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1353. FOREX
Quoting yonzabam:


A 120 mph cat 3 making a direct hit on Panama city? That'll be a news story.


The local METS here in PCB disagree, but who knows. As of 15 minutes ago WJHG METS still think it will go well east of PC Beach. I'll be happy when I know for sure so I can go to the bank and start preparing.
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Quoting Levi32:


I "should" graduate here Spring 2014, but then I may have to move to Florida and not actually start school there until I have been living there a year and gotten residency. Out-of-state tuition is out of the question.
Sweet...then we have time to teach you how to surf... Then you reeeeealy will like the weather.
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1350. TheMom
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Cantore has allegedly arrived on the Gulf Coast.......
So that means no Gulf side hit...
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1349. ncstorm
Quoting SCwannabe:
Nobody is even talking about east coast fla or carolinas, but I agree with you.





because apparently the SE only consists of Florida..LOL..but yeah, the Carolinas and points northward was the original target for the Conus when the GFS started showing Isaac..dont be surprised if it comes back to that scenario..
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Biggest difference I have seen yet:


I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
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Quoting A4Guy:


Oh my god...will you please stop?
Why do keep arguing with the NHC?

No matter how hard you try, you cannot will the storm to roll over your house. It doesn't work. Many have tried, and all have failed.


1200 Euro

990mb steering:

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting jeffs713:

You are claiming dry air, but post an infrared pic.

I don't see anything that has the hallmark of dry air hurting Isaac, as the storms aren't suddenly going "poof" in a particular area.


There's a big dry slot to the left of that big eastern band.
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1345. centex
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CENTER OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEW MEXICO BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND ISAAC WILL CHIP AWAY AT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRING DRY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HELP FORCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED OUT WEST.
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Quoting seflagamma:


Like I said, I don't think us SE Fla folks can be sure it will miss us after today's activities.
We'll just be chilling down here in the meantime hahaa. ;)

A cyclone that intense will be sure to knock out power for a few days though, and that's something I'm not a fan of lol.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 18:43:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°48'N 71°31'W (16.8N 71.5167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the SSE (156°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155° at 70kts (From the SSE at ~ 80.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the ENE (75°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the east quadrant at 18:21:30Z
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
I don't want to eat up space, but I looked and haven't seen this posted yet... I have a question/observation about something in their discussion regarding the current surface analysis... In many many many incidents past when there has been a storm moving north out of the Caribbean, I have noticed that when pressures are lower over North Carolina as it is emerging from the mountainous terrain down there, that systems quite often then begin to ride the right side of the cone of uncertainty, causing continuous rightward adjustments... I have no idea what it means, but I have been around long enough to recognize it as "something I've noticed and mentioned to myself on more than one occasion".

(P.S. for the record, those who know me know that i do not wish, doom, down, hype, or any other type of -cast, so that is not what this is :) My handle is OBXNCWEATHER, although I now live in Satellite Beach, FL, which just happens to be on the East Coast of FL...)

I hope I disclaimed enough. Just wondering if anyone else ever noticed the same pattern of lower pressures over eastern NC when a storm emerges into the W Atl or Florida Straits.

Thanks.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTED OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SURGE ARE SPREADING WEST
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG WINDS 40 T0
50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. THESE
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. ISAAC HAS BEGUN ITS
NORTHWEST TURN AND WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND TOWARDS EASTERN
CUBA OVERNIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE EAST FROM RUNS YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST
WEST...WITH THE STORM MOVING CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THE OTHER MODELS NOW BRING THE STORM INTO THE
MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION WITH CUBA. THIS COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...BECAUSE THE STORM WOULD BE ABLE TO SPEND MUCH
MORE TIME OVER WATER. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HURRICANE
MODELS...THEY WOULD BE INDICATING A HURRICANE POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO THERE IS A LOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS ONLY ONE SUITE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE INCREASING.

GOING WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WE CAN START TO NARROW DOWN
SOME IMPACTS THAT MAY OCCUR TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE
A MAJOR IMPACT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM...AND TROPICAL TORNADOES WOULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. SURGE IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE...BUT ON
THE CURRENT TRACK...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG
BISCAYNE BAY AND ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THAT
THESE IMPACTS COULD BECOME MUCH DIFFERENT IF THE STORM TRACKS TO
THE RIGHT OR LEFT...OR IF THE STORM BECOMES STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ISAAC...RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE.
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1341. VR46L
Quoting pottery:

Gordon ???


LOL made mistake, sorry Ammended it Its Issac
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Still a lot of dry air in there:



Somehow he's strengthening despite that though, which is a bit worrying... Imagine if the dry air wasn't there.
Looks like it's on the decline to me...
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 18:43:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1648'N 7131'W (16.8N 71.5167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the SSE (156) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155 at 70kts (From the SSE at ~ 80.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the ENE (75) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14C (57F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18C (64F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16C (61F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the east quadrant at 18:21:30Z


------

So, we've got confirmed 55kt winds. If the hunter has time for a second center pass before they finalize the 5pm update, I suspect it'll find at least 60kt, and possibly even the 65kts necessary for an upgrade. If not right now, then certainly tonight.

Note, much more importantly, the dramatic temperature differential inside and outside the eye. That'd been lacking until now. Isaac's finally getting it together.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Does their happen to be any sort of weather radars in hispaniola?


i found a site for one in DR, but it's offline and the links to the actual data are grayed out, suggesting the radar is broken, or the site is just not for public use...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Latest UKMET has a panhandle landfall:

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Cantore has allegedly arrived on the Gulf Coast.......
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Nobody is even talking about east coast fla or carolinas, but I agree with you.



Quoting ncstorm:


too MANY variables..this is still a NC to Texas storm..yeah I said it..
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1334. N3EG
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
JUST IN: #Sarasota Co. has declared a State of Emergency "due to the expected threat" of Tropical Storm #Isaac. - http://BayNews9.com


I was in Sarasota for Hurricane Georges (1999, I think)...people in shelters, etc. and they had what amounted to a small Pacific NW storm in terms of intensity.
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Quoting Levi32:


I "should" graduate here Spring 2014, but then I may have to move to Florida and not actually start school there until I have been there a year and gotten residency. Out-of-state tuition is out of the question.


Yeah out of state tuition is really bad, if you did become a resident, FSU is probably one of the most reasonable schools cost wise out there, and all around a really great campus, I've visited twice now. I'm just waiting to hear back from them on my application now...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Still a lot of dry air in there:



Somehow he's strengthening despite that though, which is a bit worrying... Imagine if the dry air wasn't there.

You are claiming dry air, but post an infrared pic.

I don't see anything that has the hallmark of dry air hurting Isaac, as the storms aren't suddenly going "poof" in a particular area.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 12z has a hurricane making landfall right over my house in about 2 and a half days...that's interesting lol.



Like I said, I don't think us SE Fla folks can be sure it will miss us after today's activities.
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The anti-cyclone has really gotten screwed up and misaligned in the past several hours, which is probably inhibiting RI right now, else it could have been jumping 5 to 10kts every advisory.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting guygee:
Looks like Isaac is finally stacking up just in time to strafe the Massif de la Hotte over Haiti's southern peninsula, then probably entering the Windward Passage.
From watching past storms that one-two punch is very unfavorable for tropical cyclones, so Isaac will have some re-organizing to do after that.

I decided I am not going to jump too far ahead in time on this one...a lot of unknown factors still coming into play...


If Isaac strays ever so slightly west of forecast early on, I think his later track will inch east as it will take him longer to get up that far north and by then the factors bumping him east will be more established. I think he's going to strafe the western shores of Florida all the way. He'll be far enough away to intensify steadily but close enough to create a mess all the way from the Keys to the Bend.
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The 12z has a hurricane making landfall right over my house in about 2 and a half days...that's interesting lol.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Still a lot of dry air in there:



Somehow he's strengthening despite that though, which is a bit worrying... Imagine if the dry air wasn't there.


It's pulling in drier air from the higher terrain over Haiti, I've seen this happen with every system that passes by this close from the south. The reason Isaac is fighting it well is that it established a core first. Isaac may not spend enough time over Haiti or Cuba to be severely disrupted, but then again it also could, it's hard to say what will happen until it does.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
JUST IN: #Sarasota Co. has declared a State of Emergency "due to the expected threat" of Tropical Storm #Isaac. - http://BayNews9.com


Oh great, my dad will start freaking out, as his boat is docked at the Twin Dolphins Marina in Bradenton.
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Does their happen to be any sort of weather radars in hispaniola?
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1323. Levi32
Quoting Jedkins01:



If you do plan to be at FSU when would you potentially start? I plan to start there in this upcoming Spring.


I "should" graduate here Spring 2014, but then I may have to move to Florida and not actually start school there until I have been living there a year and gotten residency. Out-of-state tuition is out of the question.
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1322. pottery
Quoting VR46L:


Sadly I dont believe that kind of humor is allowed here anymore.....


Anyways Back on topic

Gordon in rainbow<br>

Gordon ???
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1321. ncstorm
Quoting guygee:
Looks like Isaac is finally stacking up just in time to strafe the Massif de la Hotte over Haiti's southern peninsula, then probably entering the Windward Passage.
From watching past storms that one-two punch is very unfavorable for tropical cyclones, so Isaac will have some re-organizing to do after that.

I decided I am not going to jump too far ahead in time on this one...a lot of unknown factors still coming into play...


too MANY variables..this is still a NC to Texas storm..yeah I said it..
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Quoting gustavcane:
we can not disregard the ECMWF Model because it has been the best model
for the last two years and for the fact that it has been very consistent
with the track to the west near the LA/MS Border. The other models
including the second best model the GFS has been flip floping all over
the place. here is my take on what TS Isaac may do. Issac may not go
over the northern part of Cuba at all and end up moving real close
skirting the coast of the southern coast of Cuba and make a run for the
hot waters of the Yucatan Channel. the reason that I say this is because
the canter of Isaac has a history of his center reforming to the
south. if you look at the recent and past Satellite Loops you will see
that this storm will continue to fire blowups of storms to the southwest
causing the center to reestablish itself in that direction IMO.


At this point, anything is possible
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
So, so far, I'd say the storm has max sustained winds of up to 65 mph, and pressure at 995.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting stormpetrol:


Thats where it is, but it has commenced a westward movement again IMO, we'll have to wait for 2-3 more fixes to confirm.

I think your right steering map show a W-WNW movement and not NW just imagine if the ridge build in somewhat and it keeps moving W-rather than WNW-NW(not saying that this will happen but just what if it was)

Quoting chevycanes:
center is right where the NHC put it at 2pm per the HH.


that could mean that its now stationary or NHC was tracking a different center

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
JUST IN: #Sarasota Co. has declared a State of Emergency "due to the expected threat" of Tropical Storm #Isaac. - http://BayNews9.com
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Quoting 7544:


knowing the nhc they go left lol


oh yes... lol


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1315. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
At 140 miles? Yes it is.

Just look at the NOAA radar beam height calculator cat7 posted earlier, it will calculate it all for you. Link. It's nowhere near 6500 feet. Even if it were, recon was still flying lower, which was something several of us were trying to bring up yesterday.


As far as I can tell based on their calculator, my calculation gave the height of the low portion of the beam, and wasn't that far off their value. The beam is 3D, and apparently the top propagates upward faster than the bottom.

It doesn't really matter. What we saw on radar yesterday was a low-level circulation.
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Quoting Levi32:


I want FSU, but we'll have to see how that goes.


FSU is a great school. I am an alumni (2002)... great meteorology department of course. I lived most of my life in Tallahassee - pretty good city for a college town.

Good luck - hope you get in.
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1313. VR46L
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pity the poster wasted it by posting it with a fake id instead of making a name for himself with a unique one of his own... we could use that lighter touch every now and then...



Sadly I dont believe that kind of humor is allowed here anymore.....


Anyways Back on topic
isaac in rainbow

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Any guesses on the 5pm intensity and track. My guess is 65mph and no change in track (since GFS went right and Euro went left). Anyone else have thoughts?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.