Little change to Isaac, but intensification coming; Joyce forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on August 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is a large and impressive-looking storm on satellite images, but data from the Hurricane Hunters reveal that Isaac remains a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, as it heads westward across the Eastern Caribbean. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft which completed its mission into Isaac at 8 am EDT found top winds at the surface near 40 mph, and highest winds at their 5,000 foot flight level of 47 mph. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet has found top winds of 47 mph at that altitude. The Hurricane Hunters found a broad area of light winds with a central pressure of 1003 mb. The aircraft did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. There does not appear to be much in the way of dry air near the core of Isaac, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, which is a big switch from what we've seen previously. Visible satellite loops show that Isaac has a much more symmetric circular cloud pattern, and has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, the hallmark of an intensifying storm. These clouds have very cold cloud tops, indicating that the updrafts creating them are quite strong. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that an upper-level pattern of outflow supportive of significant strengthening has developed this morning, with an upper-level outflow channel now well-established to the north, and a new outflow channel opening to the south. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows some weak low-level spiral bands that are slowing intensifying and becoming more organized.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Isaac taken from the Puerto Rico radar. Isaac's rain bands are weak, but are starting to take on a more spiraling shape.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has consistently confounded predictions that it would intensify, but all the potential factors inhibiting intensification seem to have diminished to the point where intensification has to occur. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth, giving the storm a high total heat content to work with. These factors, combined with the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and more symmetric cloud pattern, support intensification, and all of the intensity models except the HWRF model predict intensification of Isaac to a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Friday afternoon. The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 34% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, and a 6% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. By Friday afternoon, Isaac will likely be close enough to Southwest Haiti that the inner core will be disrupted, and the storm will likely be a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane.

Impact of Isaac on the Islands
The south coast of Puerto Rico should see Isaac's heaviest rains and strongest winds beginning near 8 pm EDT tonight, with tropical storm-force winds of 40 - 45 mph potentially affecting the southwest portion of the island. The San Juan airport may be able to stay open during Isaac's passage, but with delays when spiral bands move overhead.

Heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic late tonight, and the Santo Domingo airport will probably be closed on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Isaac is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from Isaac will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches are possible, which will be capable of causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti. It will be a major challenge to keep those Haitians living outside safe, if rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches occur.

Impact on Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are all at risk of receiving flooding rains and high winds from Isaac. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs for Isaac are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a west-northwestward track over Southwest Haiti and into Western Cuba. At the 4 - 5 day forecast period for Sunday and Monday, the models have come into better agreement, and have shifted west some. Our best-performing model, the ECMWF, has now shifted Isaac's path more to the east, but still is the westernmost of the models, predicting a landfall for Isaac near the Alabama/Florida border on Wednesday. While we do still have some models predicting a path up the east coast of Florida, model consensus now favors a path up the west coast of Florida through the Gulf of Mexico. The recent reformation of Isaac's center more to the south supports the idea that Isaac will take a track more to the west through the Gulf of Mexico. Since this now means a final landfall for Isaac in the Florida Panhandle is likely, the storm will probably have an extra day over water, increasing the odds that it will become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane before this final landfall. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly into the storm this afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts. These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 15% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. The latest model tracks for Isaac suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the north will not be strong enough to give Isaac a northeastward component of motion when it crosses Tampa's latitude. Thus, Isaac will have difficulty making a direct hit on Tampa without passing over a considerable amount of land first, making a multi-billion dollar hurricane disaster in Tampa very unlikely. I put the odds of a mass evacuation occurring during the convention at 1%; a limited evacuation of people in the Tampa Bay area living in mobile homes in low-lying areas is probably about 5 - 10 % likely. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Joyce.

Tropical Storm Joyce forms in the Central Atlantic
The season's tenth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Joyce, has formed in the Central Atlantic. Joyce's formation on August 23 puts 2012 in a tie for second place with 1995 for earliest formation date of the season's tenth storm. Only 2005 had an earlier appearance of the season's tenth storm, when Tropical Storm Jose formed at 2 pm EDT on August 22. None of the models show that Joyce will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it may be a storm that will affect Bermuda. It is possible that Joyce will complicate the track forecast for Isaac 4 - 5 days from now, when the storms may be close enough together to interact.

Jeff Masters

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Levi's site is very informative. I find it useful in understanding the dynamics involved in forecasting.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Nothing has happened in PR so far.


Those are really good news... But I heard of what they call an "indirect loss of life", a woman preparing for the storm, felt down a 2nd floor...
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Quoting AAPLTrader:
LEVI has to eat crow today. For 3 days he predicted a path EAST of Florida.


I don't think that should be necessary. At least with his forecasts he explains how he arrives at them. His reasoning is always sound. Long term hurricane forecasts are challenging to say the least!

On the other hand, for those who make predictions (that don't come to fruition) without backing them up, they should be the ones eating crow. JMHO
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, give us your forecast... what do you have to offer to us in the blog?

Levi makes a full study of models, analyses weather patterns and variables and prepares for us his forecast... Then he prepares a video, posting it in YTube, Facebook, Twitter, G+ and WB....

That takes a lot of effort, just to be informative... He's not perfect... neither GFS, FIM, NHC and so on...

But he's doing an excellent job... hope he keeps on preparing his Tidbits...

+1000000
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from last blog
11am cone shifted S and W

I don't think it at 15.6°N 65.4°W I this it further S however I'll wait for HH RECON to fly in though I think that they will find it S as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12309
Quoting FLStormDude:
Hey guys/girls new poster here...

Just a question for the "experts" here...

What's the chances this front From the north picks up steam on Sat/Sun and Joyce breaks down that high with her intensity.. Do you see it going the western track and possibly stalling and or taking a hard shift similar to Charley and make landfall somewhere on the west coast of Fl??

No chance.
Joyce will remain weak, and head DUE NW with a waning Bermuda High pressure, and pass near Bermuda as a moderate TS... as she heads out to sea.
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Quoting AAPLTrader:
LEVI has to eat crow today. For 3 days he predicted a path EAST of Florida.


It hasnt even gotten no where near Florida yet..geography lesson 101..he isnt wrong yet..



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117. A4Guy
Quoting presslord:
These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.


I'm gonna repost this every 10 or 15 minutes...


Good luck with that. There are a lot of folks onthe board that think they can talk the storm to their doorstep by starting to predict landfall ten days out. Maybe your repeated posting will knock some sense into them...but I doubt it.
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116. DDR
Trinidad met office
FLOOD BULLETIN 1.
RIVERINE FLOOD ALERT!
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is
issuing a riverine flood alert for Trinidad,
having regard to the most recent rainfall event
associated with feeder band activity from
Tropical Storm Isaac.



Reports from the Water Resources Agency indicate
that water levels in the nation’s major rivers
in North and Northwest Trinidad are significantly
high and may reach threshold levels as a result of
run-off from the current and forecast rainfall
activity. The Meteorological Service has also
received reports of rivers overtopping in some
locations. Although water levels in the primary
Caroni River remain contained at this time, the
trends are indicating a gradual increase.


Meteorological Forecasts and data obtained from
Numerical Weather Prediction Models indicate that
further rainfall activity is expected over the
next 4 to 6 hours with rainfall accumulation
anticipated to be between 30-60 millimeters.
Given the additional rainfall predicted for
Trinidad and Tobago and the occurrence of high
tides at 8:00 am. today, the possibility of
further river overtopping is real and imminent.
As opposed to street/flash flooding, riverine
flooding can be more extensive and prolonged.
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Quoting MonsterTrough:


Because taiwan typhoon does not = mouseclicks. Florida storm (first *potential major* storm to hit conus) makes $$. AND that storm had been predicted to hit Taiwan for days (not really a surprise, taiwan had time to prepare), Isaac's cone is a bit bigger and until this am, looked like it could hit anywhere from SC to LA. IMO


I understand that, but even a few lines at the bottom could of been enough. Not to mention a Cat 4 that is going to loop around and make landfall again then loop around and hit again, I think that could help with people widening there tropical storm knowledge. It's not just the ATL that has it's season right now.

This is both beautiful and frightening at the same time

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Quoting 69Viking:


Until Isaac passes South Florida and goes West of Florida he has no reason to eat crow. There is no guarantee in forecasting and there is still a lot of time before this storm gets into the GOM or the Straights South of Florida.

I agree...and the fact that the cone by the professionals still includes alot of real estate on the east side of FL...its premature to start calling for crow consumption.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


You mean the upper air data from the Gulfstream jet?


Correct, my understanding was that the Gulfstream jet would be running a mission today?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting emcf30:
All NHC forecast tracks animated



Keeps nudging West

Nice animation
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
Quoting AussieStorm:

They actually left Biloxi Airport not Miami. HH'ers don't fly out of Miami. They fly out of Tampa and Biloxi.

Oh. Right. I was looking at the wind information that starts just off Florida east coast. lol.
I see the two dropsonde reports that I can connect the dots to Biloxi...
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Thank you very much, Dr. Masters your blog made my day feel a whole lot better.
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As a Florida resident, I hope the "powers that be" are paying attention to this potential situation. Perhap's it's good that this is an election year; no one is going to want to drop the ball on disaster relief issues with this one.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9307
Quoting FOREX:


Thanks for the info. My Wife and I love Ft. Walton Beach and Destin. Now I'm hungry for Maguires Irish Pub in Sandestin.lol. We live in an apartment on the second floor. The road near us floods terribly, especially lately with all of the rain, so we worry about that quite a bit. I've never been in a Hurricane, but always thought that we would stay put for a CAT1, but maybe leave for a CAT2. Any experience with that you can help me with?


Everyone has to make their own call. I pretty much stay for a Cat 3/4 or lower but I have friends I can go stay with who live away from the coast in newer homes built to the new codes. Just make sure you're prepared to board up an South and East facing windows, with the angle of approach and circulation direction those will be the areas of your Apt. most at risk.
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Quoting pensacolastorm:


Far too similar to Ivan, also an "I" storm.
My condo was not livable for over a year after Ivan. I remember all the blue tarps in Pensacola when flying out. We don't want a storm near us at all!
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Quoting RTSplayer:
The left line of this cone is a pretty good analog for what I think the real track will be.



It's not out of the question, but Issac gets any time of steady intensification going he may boomerang more towards the NW and NNW as time passes.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Hits Puerto Rico...
This was on MSN. They get POOF from me. I guess they get their info from Mickey Mouse.
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104. NYX
Quoting emcf30:
All NHC forecast tracks animated



Keeps nudging West


Nice!
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Quoting MrNatural:


I think you'll find that there are a number of really insightful folks working this blog...


...and some act like they've been licking quarter-inch square pieces of paper with Mr. Natural pics on 'em...
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Hey guys/girls new poster here...

Just a question for the "experts" here...

What's the chances this front From the north picks up steam on Sat/Sun and Joyce breaks down that high with her intensity.. Do you see it going the western track and possibly stalling and or taking a hard shift similar to Charley and make landfall somewhere on the west coast of Fl??
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Quoting yqt1001:
Hmm.


Let it begin....
NHC should bump this up to 50 Mph at the Intermediate.
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Quoting yqt1001:
Hmm.



Making an effort to stack...Still a little ways to go though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting AAPLTrader:
LEVI has to eat crow today. For 3 days he predicted a path EAST of Florida.


Well, give us your forecast... what do you have to offer to us in the blog?

Levi makes a full study of models, analyses weather patterns and variables and prepares for us his forecast... Then he prepares a video, posting it in YTube, Facebook, Twitter, G+ and WB....

That takes a lot of effort, just to be informative... He's not perfect... neither GFS, FIM, NHC and so on...

But he's doing an excellent job... hope he keeps on preparing his Tidbits...
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Looking at the latest model runs for GFS and ECMWF, it looks like the NHC is favoring the ECMWF again. Maybe ECMWF will improve its 2012 reliability this time around? Think they'll regret moving away from the GFS at this point? It didn't work out too well for TS Debby. GFS still shows Isaac skirting the FL West Coast and entering the state near the Big Bend area which can ill afford more rain. Isn't the next GFS model run at 1pm?

Yes, we can see the full run around 1:30, but I understand the the first 144 hrs are the most reliable.

I posted something similar to your thinking a few minutes ago. The gfs has been a good performer, but the NHC are the experts, right?
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The GFS 06Z model run shows Isaac tracking along the west coast of Florida, then diving across the state and NE through Ga. Then it has Isaac tracking along the east coast until exiting at Cape Hatteras.

Such a scenario would produce a lot of coastal erosion and flooding all along the east coast from Ga to Va. I don't think this will play out, but it is interesting to see how the GFS has Isaac tracking along both coasts.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Still, Isaac's future depends on the interaction it has with those 2 ULLs mixing dry air..... until when it will keep Stuck in there?...


The upper level low has a much better chance of messin with Joyce than Isaac.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Actually, he had a pretty good forecast and the predicted track is still well with in the cone of his forecast. That said, a trek up the E coast of Fl, while less likely ATM, is still possible. Someone even posted a forecast discussion that talked about further erosion of the Bermuda high.

That said, I still firmly believe that Isaac will end up between Apalachicola and the OBX. Tomorrows model runs with upper air data in them should be very useful in narrowing the projected path some.


You mean the upper air data from the Gulfstream jet?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Quoting sunlinepr:


Nothing has happened in PR so far.
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These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.


I'm gonna repost this every 10 or 15 minutes...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting SSideBrac:


And the possibility that TYPH TEMBIN will loop around and hit Taiwan for a second time!

Not just twice but maybe even three times if the GFS is correct. Check out this link....

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Quoting gulfshoresAL:
I think Issac is headed for Flora-Bama for a bushwhacker!


Far too similar to Ivan, also an "I" storm.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Agree. Reading dr. M's blog he thinks the impact on Tampa will be minimal.


The percent chance of impact on any location is minimal. That's just how it works when it's a week or more out and there are 100s to 1000s of miles of coastline in the range of possibilities.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The NHC didnt wait around for recon to report... The adivsory was too close, so they made Isaac a 40 Mph TS... Even though about 15-30 Minutes later Recon found a bunch of 45 Mph winds... and a couple areas of peak winds at 50 mph.

E.I.

Time: 13:10:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5833N 64.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.7 mb (~ 20.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,146 meters (~ 10,322 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.9 mb (~ 29.65 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 160° at 37 knots (From the SSE at ~ 42.5 mph)
Air Temp: 10.5°C (~ 50.9°F)
Dew Pt: 8.7°C (~ 47.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 13:10:30Z
Coordinates: 15.6167N 64.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,161 meters (~ 10,371 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.9 mb (~ 29.65 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 159° at 36 knots (From the SSE at ~ 41.4 mph)
Air Temp: 10.4°C (~ 50.7°F)
Dew Pt: 9.3°C (~ 48.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 13:09:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 64.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.9 mb (~ 20.61 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,145 meters (~ 10,318 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.7 mb (~ 29.64 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 157° at 33 knots (From the SSE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 10.7°C (~ 51.3°F)
Dew Pt: 8.9°C (~ 48.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 13:08:30Z
Coordinates: 15.4667N 64.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,160 meters (~ 10,367 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.3 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 180° at 32 knots (From the S at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 8.8°C* (~ 47.8°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 18 mm/hr (~ 0.71 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 11:22:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5N 62.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.1 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,186 meters (~ 10,453 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.5 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 163° at 35 knots (From the SSE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 9.3°C (~ 48.7°F)
Dew Pt: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 11:22:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5333N 62.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.3 mb (~ 20.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,195 meters (~ 10,482 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.0 mb (~ 29.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 162° at 38 knots (From the SSE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 9.2°C* (~ 48.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

CMON NHC. This at least supports 45 Mph.
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Hmm.

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Quoting bappit:

Yeah, no one on this blog. The pros are at the NHC.


I think you'll find that there are a number of really insightful folks working this blog...
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12z GFS 24hrs out shows a still very, very discombobulated Isaac.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting A4Guy:
Once the big ball of convection to the south separates, the inner core may be able to start to pull together. We'll see....been here before with Isaac and Ernesto, and they just have not pulled together. Will be interesting to read, post-season, why storms are having a tough time spinning up.


Looks like some sort of dry air entrainment still bothering it. Is the source of that related to ULL's?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Quoting A4Guy:
All the Gulf Casters will be struttin around like male peacocks. I wouldn't get set on a track until tomorrow morning, after the NOAA jsets take air amples and feed the data into the models....which has been the game plan all along. Can't really get too certain more than thre days out. We all know this, but the blog goes through the "Florida" "Texas" "Gulf Coast" "Tampa" battle with every storm.


Those of us on the gulf who have been through storms before are only wishcasting for it to go elsewhere.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Doc, why no mention of Dual Typhoons and 1 about to impact Taiwan.


Because taiwan typhoon does not = mouseclicks. Florida storm (first *potential major* storm to hit conus) makes $$. AND that storm had been predicted to hit Taiwan for days (not really a surprise, taiwan had time to prepare), Isaac's cone is a bit bigger and until this am, looked like it could hit anywhere from SC to LA. IMO
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I'm sure the NHC has taken into account that the stronger he gets, the more pole ward he goes. My thinking is that over those hot waters that long could change the track a little more back towards the FL coast. Even then say that intensity is very hard to predict, and it goes hand in hand with the track.

I would hate to see all those people in Tampa, thinking tropical force winds and get then a big surprise. Politics aside. Lest we forget H. Charlie.
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Quoting emcf30:
All NHC forecast tracks animated



Keeps nudging West

As long as Isaac continues to move west so will the cone.
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Quoting yonzabam:
So, every factor that would be conducive for strengthening is now in place, low shear, high TCHP, moist environment, moderate forward speed, no land interaction.

But I bet it doesn't.


May not strengthen much before first landfall, but what happens when it hits the toasty Gulf of Mexico? Let's hope that it gets destroyed by Cuba and Hispanola.
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Quoting Grothar:
Isn't this the "Dead Zone"???

I think Issac is headed for Flora-Bama for a bushwhacker!
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Isaac is a mess, at this point in time, running over Hispaniola will make no difference as there is very little structure for the mountains to destroy.

Isaac's large size is probably the only thing that is going to stop it from becoming a monster.
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Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


Day-um. Guess I better shoot over to Lowes and Wal-Mart, and pull the shutters out of the shed. Bleah.

Stay away, Ivan Isaac (and Jim Cantore).


Yeah I wasn't too excited about reading that either. Still 5-6 days before it is forecast to be near us so still time for it to trend more to the West or go back East....
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Quoting AAPLTrader:
LEVI has to eat crow today. For 3 days he predicted a path EAST of Florida.


Actually, he had a pretty good forecast and the predicted track is still well with in the cone of his forecast. That said, a trek up the E coast of Fl, while less likely ATM, is still possible. Someone even posted a forecast discussion that talked about further erosion of the Bermuda high.

That said, I still firmly believe that Isaac will end up between Apalachicola and the OBX. Tomorrows model runs with upper air data in them should be very useful in narrowing the projected path some.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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