Little change to Isaac, but intensification coming; Joyce forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on August 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is a large and impressive-looking storm on satellite images, but data from the Hurricane Hunters reveal that Isaac remains a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, as it heads westward across the Eastern Caribbean. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft which completed its mission into Isaac at 8 am EDT found top winds at the surface near 40 mph, and highest winds at their 5,000 foot flight level of 47 mph. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet has found top winds of 47 mph at that altitude. The Hurricane Hunters found a broad area of light winds with a central pressure of 1003 mb. The aircraft did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. There does not appear to be much in the way of dry air near the core of Isaac, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, which is a big switch from what we've seen previously. Visible satellite loops show that Isaac has a much more symmetric circular cloud pattern, and has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, the hallmark of an intensifying storm. These clouds have very cold cloud tops, indicating that the updrafts creating them are quite strong. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that an upper-level pattern of outflow supportive of significant strengthening has developed this morning, with an upper-level outflow channel now well-established to the north, and a new outflow channel opening to the south. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows some weak low-level spiral bands that are slowing intensifying and becoming more organized.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Isaac taken from the Puerto Rico radar. Isaac's rain bands are weak, but are starting to take on a more spiraling shape.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has consistently confounded predictions that it would intensify, but all the potential factors inhibiting intensification seem to have diminished to the point where intensification has to occur. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth, giving the storm a high total heat content to work with. These factors, combined with the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and more symmetric cloud pattern, support intensification, and all of the intensity models except the HWRF model predict intensification of Isaac to a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Friday afternoon. The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 34% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, and a 6% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. By Friday afternoon, Isaac will likely be close enough to Southwest Haiti that the inner core will be disrupted, and the storm will likely be a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane.

Impact of Isaac on the Islands
The south coast of Puerto Rico should see Isaac's heaviest rains and strongest winds beginning near 8 pm EDT tonight, with tropical storm-force winds of 40 - 45 mph potentially affecting the southwest portion of the island. The San Juan airport may be able to stay open during Isaac's passage, but with delays when spiral bands move overhead.

Heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic late tonight, and the Santo Domingo airport will probably be closed on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Isaac is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from Isaac will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches are possible, which will be capable of causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti. It will be a major challenge to keep those Haitians living outside safe, if rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches occur.

Impact on Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are all at risk of receiving flooding rains and high winds from Isaac. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs for Isaac are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a west-northwestward track over Southwest Haiti and into Western Cuba. At the 4 - 5 day forecast period for Sunday and Monday, the models have come into better agreement, and have shifted west some. Our best-performing model, the ECMWF, has now shifted Isaac's path more to the east, but still is the westernmost of the models, predicting a landfall for Isaac near the Alabama/Florida border on Wednesday. While we do still have some models predicting a path up the east coast of Florida, model consensus now favors a path up the west coast of Florida through the Gulf of Mexico. The recent reformation of Isaac's center more to the south supports the idea that Isaac will take a track more to the west through the Gulf of Mexico. Since this now means a final landfall for Isaac in the Florida Panhandle is likely, the storm will probably have an extra day over water, increasing the odds that it will become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane before this final landfall. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly into the storm this afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts. These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 15% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. The latest model tracks for Isaac suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the north will not be strong enough to give Isaac a northeastward component of motion when it crosses Tampa's latitude. Thus, Isaac will have difficulty making a direct hit on Tampa without passing over a considerable amount of land first, making a multi-billion dollar hurricane disaster in Tampa very unlikely. I put the odds of a mass evacuation occurring during the convention at 1%; a limited evacuation of people in the Tampa Bay area living in mobile homes in low-lying areas is probably about 5 - 10 % likely. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Joyce.

Tropical Storm Joyce forms in the Central Atlantic
The season's tenth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Joyce, has formed in the Central Atlantic. Joyce's formation on August 23 puts 2012 in a tie for second place with 1995 for earliest formation date of the season's tenth storm. Only 2005 had an earlier appearance of the season's tenth storm, when Tropical Storm Jose formed at 2 pm EDT on August 22. None of the models show that Joyce will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it may be a storm that will affect Bermuda. It is possible that Joyce will complicate the track forecast for Isaac 4 - 5 days from now, when the storms may be close enough together to interact.

Jeff Masters

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HH plane starting to lower from 26,000 feet.
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I think where the red circle I made is where it is organizing.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well right now if the GFS and Euro were correct and judging by the size of the storm we would at the very least receive sustained TS force winds for roughly 30 hrs, but more concerning would be the heavy tropical rainfall within the rain bands from Isaac. We are still in the cone and as we have seen the models have shifted back and forth already. As we get closer in time we'll get this pinned down, but for right now we wait and we watch. Like everyone else I'm waiting on the Gulfstream IV mission to get out there and sample the Upper Levels of the atmosphere by letting go dropsondes and weather ballons, so we can get a better idea of the steering downstream.
ok thanks, most of the mets are saying that high to the east is going to say where issac goes,and come sunday..brother its influence is towards the east coast of florida,this just may ride up and around it..i sure hope the east coasters arent writting this one off..this could very well go up the east coast of florida too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
.
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guys calm down Isaac is not a hurricane that obs seems to be a glich nothing more
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The HH flew over the coast of that island, so the SFMR was hopelessly borked for those few readings. It does NOT work over land.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I don't know, I thought it would be on that heading by now. Lets see 8AM it was at 15.4N and at 11AM it was at 15.6N, if it's not north of that last point then it is still moving westward.




Notice that the ULL over Cuba is loosing its rotation CCwise... The one above both Isaac and Joyce is strong... pulling Joyce north and keeping that boundary of Dry air NNE of Isaac... Soon the only way to meve will be the WNW...



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Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 23rd, with Video


Very interesting that after all the debate about Isaac's movement that you agree he is starting to move WNW
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7822
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Definitely.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Katrina only wiped out nearly every building on the MS Coastline, leaving most of them with nothing but a slab. That's a stretch of coast line some 60-70 miles long.


I wish they would have seen Mississippi after it, it was horrible. I will never forget going there and see the damage. I will not lessen the destruction of Louisiana but I was in both areas and to think someone could open thier mouth on this blog (a weather blog) and say that is unbelievable.
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Good afternoon.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 23rd, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Time: 17:06:30Z
Coordinates: 18.1N 67.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.9 mb (~ 11.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,044 meters (~ 26,391 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 424 meters (~ 1,391 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 90° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C (~ -0.4°F)
Dew Pt: -37.4°C (~ -35.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 117 knots* (~ 134.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr* (~ 0.39 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Damn. I knew Isaac was hiding something...


I love the random category 4 wind reading. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting RTSplayer:


Water Spout.

No way that's hurricane winds...


Sarcasm flag: ON
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
From 28 Storms:

Everyone along the central & east Gulf Coast should be thinking about their Hurricane plan in the event of a direct impact #flwx #alwx #mswx #lawx #Isaac
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but we are used to it.

This was the scene down our entire coast:



Yeah, we're used to it. LA got all the press. MS was splintered from the beach all the way to Pickwick Lake where it exited the state.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Hmm, thanks nrti. Did not realize C-130's that Sure hope they will at least do a couple center fixes while out there.


It was on the flight plan I posted earlier in our G-IV discussion. Maybe you missed it...
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These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
That's not real isn't it :p


It's a real report, but something tells me it's not exactly accurate...
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting RevInFL:
Glad this isn't an East Central Florida storm. I hope everyone in Isaac's path are making preps. Thanks for all the great information. I have learned heaps from this blog.
do not..say its not an east coast florida storm..that isnt in stone yet, you could come on here saturday morning and its headed for miami and up the east coast..please everyone..just watch this storm and wait a day or two..these models have been changing every day now, dont trust them..wait and watch and see what happens early this weekend
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Time: 17:06:30Z
Coordinates: 18.1N 67.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.9 mb (~ 11.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,044 meters (~ 26,391 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 424 meters (~ 1,391 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 90° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C (~ -0.4°F)
Dew Pt: -37.4°C (~ -35.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 117 knots* (~ 134.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr* (~ 0.39 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Damn. I knew Isaac was hiding something...



Water Spout.

No way that's hurricane winds...
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655. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm...

HPC

ALSO OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GULF UP THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH WAS
JUXTAPOSED WITH AN OLD AND BROAD FRONTAL ZONE RESIDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SATELLITE LOOPS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE MODEL
FORECASTS THAT FORM A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT...AND ALLOW A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIMILAR IN
HANDLING THIS RELATIVELY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE GFS WAS VERY
CONSISTENT FROM ITS 06Z TO 12Z RUN...AND IS PREFERRED AS IT IS
SLOWER TO LIFT THE FEATURE NORTHWARD BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS MAY REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ISAAC
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.


i agree people need to look at the big picture.....
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Quoting aquak9:


ok, I misunderstood your wording.

I think the faulty levees played a huge part in that mess.

I totally agree. It just, still hurts, to look at the slabs of waveland. I NEVER wanna see that happen to anyone, EVER.


Agree, I was living on the MS gulf coast. Had 7 offices down in Pass Christian, Gulport etc that were totally wiped out.. GONE!

Many employees lost their homes, and some lost loved ones all at once, it was devastating. One minute it is there, next minute it was gone.. not wet, not, flooded...gone. Heartbreaking
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Hope this loop works...

EDIT: didn't...
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yes the new GFS run actually looks like the old euro runs from yesterday.

Now hopefully people will listen and realize that jumping the gun with tropical cyclone forecasts will get you burned, especially in situations like this when it is very hard to know the outcome right now.


That being said I think it will be interesting to see how the Gulfstream IV data affects the models...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
WOW!!

112.5 knots* (~ 129.4 mph*)
Category Three Hurricane

hahahaha
That's not real isn't it :p
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is that the HWRF. Do you have that run handy?



no thats recon
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12Z HWRF
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting LargoFl:
..GT what do you think will happen around our area?
Well right now if the GFS and Euro were correct and judging by the size of the storm we would at the very least receive sustained TS force winds for roughly 30 hrs, but more concerning would be the heavy tropical rainfall within the rain bands from Isaac. We are still in the cone and as we have seen the models have shifted back and forth already. As we get closer in time we'll get this pinned down, but for right now we wait and we watch. Like everyone else I'm waiting on the Gulfstream IV mission to get out there and sample the Upper Levels of the atmosphere by letting go dropsondes and weather ballons, so we can get a better idea of the steering downstream.
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Quoting angiest:


The reference was to indirect damage, which may be correct. But Katrina definitely caused direct damage to coastal LA, MS, and AL far in excess of anything on record, at least so far as I am aware. Unfortunately for the residents of those locations, they were largely forgotten.


Yeah, but we are used to it.

This was the scene down our entire coast:

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I'm reading about people's impressions of the sizes of past hurricanes. I can tell you for me, Rita was bigger than Ike or Gustav, or even Lili. I was hit by all four. The 'biggest' hurricane for those hit by them is the one that did the most damage, had the electric out for the longest time, etc.. When all is said and done, it's not the physical size of the storm, but the damage and conditions afterward that gives size to those who go through one.
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Quoting aquak9:


ok, I misunderstood your wording.

I think the faulty levees played a huge part in that mess.

I totally agree. It just, still hurts, to look at the slabs of waveland. I NEVER wanna see that happen to anyone, EVER.


No problem. I understand it's a touchy subject. :)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
issac need to start to turn wnw like a hour ago if it plans on meeting that forcast point..
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Gustav 2008



ok do you have any more that is earler (further E)

Quoting RTSplayer:
Mid and low level becoming slightly better stacked, I think, and at least half a degree S of NHC official, no surprise there.

Venezuelan radar




Not much detail there.


Way SW of official.


same






I think you maybe right
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Quoting islandgirls:


..........and pray tell, what route does Kirk take?


Run doesn't go far enough out to ping a landfall location, but the ridge looks to be weakening so I suspect it would recurve before land in this run.

But don't pay too much attention just yet. This is 300 hours out.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Glad this isn't an East Central Florida storm. I hope everyone in Isaac's path are making preps. Thanks for all the great information. I have learned heaps from this blog.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
WOW!!

112.5 knots* (~ 129.4 mph*)
Category Three Hurricane

hahahaha

Please excuse my French, but...

WOW!!!!!11!!!1one

Ok, I think I got that out of my system now. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I think Isaac will miss Tampa by 200 miles. We should see some rain and 20-30mph winds.


Like Ivan?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Yikes. I didn't mean to downplay the damage in Mississippi. I just meant that people seem to focus on N.O. when talk of Katrina gets mentioned and I think the faulty levees played a huge part in that mess.


ok, I misunderstood your wording.

I think the faulty levees played a huge part in that mess.

I totally agree. It just, still hurts, to look at the slabs of waveland. I NEVER wanna see that happen to anyone, EVER.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
HR 144 FINAL



Do you see that it just sits and spins at the end of the run. Dumping rain all over the panhandle.
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Time: 17:06:30Z
Coordinates: 18.1N 67.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.9 mb (~ 11.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,044 meters (~ 26,391 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 424 meters (~ 1,391 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 90° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C (~ -0.4°F)
Dew Pt: -37.4°C (~ -35.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 117 knots* (~ 134.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr* (~ 0.39 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Damn. I knew Isaac was hiding something...

Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
WOW!!

112.5 knots* (~ 129.4 mph*)
Category Three Hurricane

hahahaha


Is that the HWRF. Do you have that run handy?

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Also, I said "indirectly". Katrina actually made landfall in Mississippi, no?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting Bluestorm5:







One of my all time favorites to track. I still remember the ECMWF bombing Igor out to sub-900 mb on a run or two. First time I have ever seen a global model overestimate a storm's intensity.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting GetReal:
700-850mb



500-850mb


There is no doubt that Isaac is going to go much more further west, until it reaches the NW Caribbean.


Yup.

Notice how far south the neutral zone is between the ridge and the monsoon trough?

Not making any hard north turn, and besides, even if it strengthens into the 990 to 1000 range, it will actually turn west harder.

Isaac would need to be about a category 3, within the next day or two, in order to turn north.
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Quoting yonzabam:



Some bits are flat, some aren't. Gustav went over the mountainous extreme western tip of Cuba and its eye wall collapsed. Otherwise, it could have been a cat 4 at landfall.


western cuba is flat isn't it?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7822
Quoting aquak9:
Katrina hitting a different area, which actually she did (Mississippi, right?) didn't cause as much damage indirectly as she did in N.O.

googlemap waveland, ms. Look at the slabs.

Those were people's HOMES.





Agree... N.O did suffer major damage and flooding.. but Waveland MS was GONE! only a handful of structures were even left.
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Quoting aquak9:
Katrina hitting a different area, which actually she did (Mississippi, right?) didn't cause as much damage indirectly as she did in N.O.

googlemap waveland, ms. Look at the slabs.

Those were people's HOMES.


The reference was to indirect damage, which may be correct. But Katrina definitely caused direct damage to coastal LA, MS, and AL far in excess of anything on record, at least so far as I am aware. Unfortunately for the residents of those locations, they were largely forgotten.
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Expect recon to find 45 - 50 Mph winds...
The center is still running south of the forecast points... which means the NHC will have to continue to shift west.... Not like where this is going... If this trend continues... Isaac might just barely clip Haiti and head for Cuba.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That's K, not J. Joyce is gone over the Atlantic by then. The storm approaching Florida is Kirk which it forms from the wave just off of Africa.


..........and pray tell, what route does Kirk take?
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Quoting serialteg:
lots of surf action @ pr SE coast

Link


Checked that I will be headed to Pine Grove
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


I think the faulty levies breaking and N.O. being below sea level contributed to the damage that Katrina did. Katrina hitting a different area, which actually she did (Mississippi, right?) didn't cause as much damage indirectly as she did in N.O.


Katrina only wiped out nearly every building on the MS Coastline, leaving most of them with nothing but a slab. That's a stretch of coast line some 60-70 miles long.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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