Isaac reorganizing as it blows through the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:34 PM GMT on August 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac continues to maintain top winds of just 45 mph as its center prepares to move through the Lesser Antilles islands late this afternoon and early this evening. The entire Lesser Antilles chain of islands is receiving heavy rains from Isaac, with Martinique picking up 1.46" of rain as of 2 pm EDT, and St. Lucia receiving 1.49". However, Isaac is not yet generating much in the way of tropical storm-force winds, and none of the islands had received winds in excess of 30 mph as of 4 pm EDT. During their storm penetration to obtain their 2 pm EDT center fix, an Air Force Reserve aircraft measured top surface winds of just 40 mph, and a central pressure of 1004 mb. Top winds at their 5000 foot flight altitude were 49 mph. Isaac is undergoing significant changes to its structure. The plane found the center had become a broad, elongated oval that extended 40 miles from NW to SE. The old center, fixed at 2 pm near 16.1°N, and closer to the dry air to Isaac's north, is being challenged for dominance by a new center that is attempting to form near a burst of heavy thunderstorms at 15.5°N. The Hurricane Hunters' latest fix at 3:50 pm EDT put the center near 15.9°N, a southwards shift of about 17 miles. The resulting battle between centers is giving Isaac a rather odd spiral rectangular shape, as seen on visible satellite loops. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. A large area of dry air to the north of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, continues to interfere with development, and Isaac will not be able to begin strengthening until it resolves the battle between it two competing centers, and casts out the dry air infiltrating it. This is going to take at least a day, since Isaac is a very large storm, and it takes more time to spin up a big chunk of the atmosphere. Radar imagery from Barbados and Martinique show plenty of heavy rain showers, mostly on the south side of Isaac where it is moister. There has been a modest increase in spiral banding since this morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Isaac, showing its odd spiral rectangle shape.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are very similar to the previous set of runs, which I discussed in detail in this morning's post. The models show a westward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola. Isaac's center shift to the south may require some modest adjustments to the south and west for the models. This would result in the storm spending a few hours less time over Hispaniola, and more time over or just south of Cuba. This would slightly decrease the risk to the Dominican Republic, the east coast of Florida, and the Bahamas, but increase the risk to the west coast of Florida. The ECMWF--our best performing model over the past two years--continues to be an outlier among the models. It predicts that Isaac will track just south of Cuba, cross the western tip of Cuba on Monday, then head north towards an eventual landfall in Louisiana. However, this model is keeping Isaac weaker than the other models, and thus predicts the storm will have a weaker response to the trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. If the official NHC intensity forecast is right and Isaac becomes a hurricane on Thursday, the more southerly track of the ECMWF is not going to verify, and Isaac will spend considerable time over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. Where Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba will be critical in determining its future path and intensity, and at this point, we don't know it its more likely that Isaac will go up the east coast of Florida, the west coast, or straight up the peninsula over land. At this point, I'd put the odds at:

40% chance of a track through the Gulf of Mexico, west of Florida
25% chance of a landfall in South Florida, and a track mostly over the Florida Peninsula
35% chance of a track along the east coast of Florida

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). The GFS model has been a close second. You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. Ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 2, the HWRF and GFDL were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2011, but were still respectable. The BAMM model did very well at 4 and 5-day forecasts. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2011, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence=a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

I'll have a new post in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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4150. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF FLORIDA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ISAAC
AND AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ISAAC WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE
AREA. ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE STEADILY
INCREASES. AS IT STANDS NOW...ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO
EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE SO
ALREADY...INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN PREPARING THROUGH
SATURDAY. VISIT WWW.READY.GOV FOR DETAILED PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
INFORMATION.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting GTcooliebai:No wonder the Eastern Caribbean is known as the "Dead Zone" I see why now.
Yes ,,agree, but they become a big mess under us and we get the worst of them ,,specially with the rain upon us ,,for days and days..this one stop and has us paralized for three days..
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm getting tired of morons making up stuff on this blog. It's disgusting... please get a job at McDonald's or something if you really want attention. They will need you.
Agreed 100%,we know who this people are!!!.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's almost not even worth clarifying that as some just don't get it. I mean one can look at at this and tell this is for sure Joyce.


It will be Joyce at 11am. When the NHC names it. Not a flipping computer.
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Quoting farupnorth:


Buoy 42059 buoy is at:

15.054 N 67.472 W (15°3'14" N 67°28'19" W)

So according to latest center fix should pass North of here later on

that buoy has been getting N-NNW winds all morning indicating the COC is north of 15N just like the NHC says it is.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
Quoting Gearsts:
MLC is moving west and the LLC is moving wnw. A very organized storm ;)


Exactly!
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4144. palmpt
Quoting ARiot:


Not wishcasting or concern trolling, but a Mobile Bay storm ain't pretty (looking at EURO).

Yall remember FEMA started partly in response to Frederick.

I was just a kid in Mobile during that one. Everyone in the family came out OK, but lots of downed trees and messed up houses, and IIRC, it actually missed Mobile Bay by a hair and we never got the big swell that was possible.


The high water mark for Mobile Bay is Katrina in recent history. Study the charts. The big storm surge direct hit on Mobile Bay has not happened. When that happens, it will be devastating. Chemical plants in lower Mobile County don't have adequate storm surge protection. Historic downtown Mobile would be inundated. Dog River homes and other areas south of I-10 in Mobile County would be swamped. A storm going up Mobile Bay would be catastrophic. Ivan was almost the one. It turned 1 degree at the last minute. It's only a matter of time...
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lets have a vote.
a. isaac is moving west
b. isaac is moving west north west

I say A. just dont see the northward movement based on satalite and steering layers.
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Quoting noraneinsite:
What is wrong with someone stating their opinion? I would say that trends seem to be pushing westward but time will tell. If you dont like what someone has to say ignore them. I havent been a member long but have been reading for years and I get tired of the politics and attacks. Just sayin.

Opinions are welcome but Calling out a place like that is what's called wish-casting or doom-casting. A lot of people here don't like that here, especially me.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, it seems some are confused about the relationship between ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast [or Formation], not "As the crow flies") and the NHC (National Hurricane Center). The two aren't separate, independent organizations; in fact, ATCF isn't even an organization at all. It's just a software package used by the NHC to process tropical data and plot tropical cyclones. So when ATCF calculates, for instance, that a particular cyclone is a tropical storm--as it has done this morning with TD10/Joyce--the NHC in just about every single case goes along with what the ATCF computer spits out.


It's almost not even worth clarifying that as some just don't get it. I mean one can look at at this and tell this is for sure Joyce.

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Quoting samiam1234:
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.
very unlikely center appears to be stacking up near 15N and 65W as for the cone the nhc will likely keep it as is since the models have maintained the current track and none have shifted east of florida
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Latest NOAA dropsonde found 46mph surface winds in the SE quadrant

Link
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Quoting 7544:
hes about to tighten up at this hour and a piece broke off over in the bahamas a new blob maybe ?


I am guessing that is from the ULL that looked like it was filling in yesterday.
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4136. LargoFl
Gov. Scott says Florida 'will be prepared' for Isaac
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045


Buoy 42059 buoy is at:

15.054 N 67.472 W (15°3'14" N 67°28'19" W)

So according to latest center fix should pass North of here later on
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4134. Chiggy
Quoting MahFL:


It's called shear, it is quite common, if it gets too high it destroys the storm by slicing off the top and moving it away from the bottom, to put it simply.

Or it forms further south where the MLC is! LLC is moving WEST, 0.2 degs here and there matters little in a storm where it's even hard for recon find a propoer center. Moving WEST
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i would love to see recon go into 15N and 65 W because looking at the RGB and visible it looks more and more likely the LLC and the midlevel center are in the process of stacking , and indications are if a WNW movement does not commence we could be looking at a stronger system moving towards Eastern cuba if it misses hispaniola which in my opinion appears to be occuring
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I agree as well



true I think wheels up are up I think because ain't take off suppose to happen at 12Z now it is about 13Z


Seems so to me too...really hope it ain't so. Someone please say it ain't so...Dr. Masters, give us your opinion please.
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Me two
Quoting samiam1234:
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Yes, something is very out of whack with this storm. It is extremely decoupled vertically. MLC and LLC still can not come to terms with each other.


I wondering if it isn't possible for the mid level circulation to take over and pull the low lever circulation under it. That mass of convection South of 15N has held together well this morning.
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4129. Relix
This storm is a mess after all is said and donde XD
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4128. Chiggy
Quoting samiam1234:
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.


HAHA LOL
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4127. MahFL
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


It's called shear, it is quite common, if it gets too high it destroys the storm by slicing off the top and moving it away from the bottom, to put it simply.
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Models:Tropical Storm Ten | Tropical Storm Isaac

- From Tropical Atlantic
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4125. Chiggy
MLC and LLC few degrees apart LOL...
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Am I reading that right! 100.5 MB and 70 MPH winds! My guess is that there no where near the surface... either that or its going to be a very long day
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my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.
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4121. Gearsts
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.
MLC is moving west and the LLC is moving wnw. A very organized storm ;)
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No wonder the Eastern Caribbean is known as the "Dead Zone" I see why now.
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4119. Relix
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


Well the system did develop a SW COC yesterday, could also do the same now. It could also be developing at 15N, 65W like Selfhurricane says. The radar shows the supposed real center moving at WNW, and the visible it seems its also lifting. The steering also supports this, and the NHC and the GFS. That's why there are multiple planes flying over Isaac, they need to keep feeding good information because this is one wild system with catastrophic probabilities.

I know some of you WANT the system in your backyard, but there are facts. I stand with the WNW movement, but the NHC has the final say
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On the water vapor image is that a trough moving into Texas? If so I doubt Issac chances of moving into the gulf will happen, more likely a Florida storm Cat 2 or 3 upon first landfall in the upper to middle keys. 24 to 36 hrs over the straights and Gulf Stream could be stronger. Donna like track maybe a little east.
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4116. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting floridaboy14:
his center is still suspect because it keeps reforming.


It isn't so much that the center keeps reforming...

It's more that there hasn't been a true inner core of the system, but rather a board tropical low pressure system. These center reformations are simply individual vorticies spinning around the overall broad circulation, which would be much easier to discern in a system with less convection. These little vorticies would eventually take over and become the dominant center is a smaller, more symmetric storm. But due to the large, broad, off-centered nature of Isaac these little areas of vorticity get spun off. As they spin off they sometimes drag the broader center in their direction but never far enough to change a longer term vector, which is why the storm 'center' (area of lowest pressure) has remained north of 15°N, despite all these apparent 'jumps' of the center. It's simply a representation of how the storm is currently structured.
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Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


Yes, something is very out of whack with this storm. It is extremely decoupled vertically. MLC and LLC still can not come to terms with each other.
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Quoting reedzone:
Hey everyone.. After observing the steering pattern and center fix, I am working on the REED run, which is a drastic change from the last run that I made 2 days ago. Just haven't had the time to keep up.
reed the models are currently argree with the NHC track thus far except 2 outliners
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4112. 7544
hes about to tighten up at this hour and a piece broke off over in the bahamas a new blob maybe ?
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Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


They are basing the center on the lowest pressure, which is going to jump around within the elongated circulation. The actually circulation is still tightening up and will wobble as it does so until its stable.
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4110. wpb
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.
agreed x10
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Just found the NOAA plane HDOB report sampling the center....SFMR has 42mph winds in the northeast side...pressure 1005mb.

Link
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Quoting Relix:
.2N
.3W
1001mb at 15.7, 65W.

If that's not a WNW-NW heading I don't know what it is.


An simple extrapolation of a movement 0.2 degrees N, and 0.3 degrees west, gives a heading of 300 degrees, which is just north of WNW.

Of course, going from one centre fix to another does not give an accurate long term heading, but it certainly shows a northward component in movement.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
New Blog!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
it is appearing more and more likely that Isaac will pass south of hispaniola and pose a danger to eastern jamaica
Quoting Chiggy:

AGREE

I agree as well

Quoting FOREX:


We will know in about 6 hours.lol.


true I think wheels up are up I think because ain't take off suppose to happen at 12Z now it is about 13Z
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting Drakoen:
.3 degrees north and .2 degrees west. Poleward movement may be ensuing.


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.
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4104. Relix
The steering is broken, there is a gap in the high to the NW. You don't just follow the little lines that move east to west, you see the gap above and the positioning of the high. The NHC and the GFS predicted this movement, I don't see what the huge fuss is this about :P.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 13:28:30Z
Coordinates: 15.6667N 65.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.1 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,151 meters (~ 10,338 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.1 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 114° at 16 knots (From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 11.2°C (~ 52.2°F)
Dew Pt: 10.2°C (~ 50.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Doubt this accurate!


As do I.

Even if that pressure is accurate, it's definitely not the center fix, because there's just no way.

In order for that to be a center fix, the storm would need to be anti-cyclonic...lol...

Both center fix candidates are on PR radar, both the known mid-level rotation, and the NHC alleged LLC are on radar, and neither of them is anywhere near that far north or east.

Not to mention, the suspected LLC has actually moved closer to the mid level circulation anyway.


The storm is far more organized now than it ever has been, which is plain as day on RGB and funktop, not to mention Dvorak.

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12Z
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looks like the center is tighting up near 15.0 N and 65 W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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