Isaac lashing the Lesser Antilles; TD 10 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is lashing the entire Lesser Antilles chain of islands with heavy rains this morning, and the winds will be on the increase this afternoon as the storm heads west at 19 mph. Isaac is still a weak and disorganized tropical storm, but that is changing. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and have thus far found no increase in the storm's top surface winds, which remain near 45 mph. In their 7:44 am EDT center fix, an Air Force Reserve aircraft measured a rather unimpressive center pressure of 1007 mb, and top winds at their 1000 foot flight altitude of 56 mph. The plane did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. A large area of dry air to the north of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, continues to interfere with development, and it is unlikely Isaac will become a hurricane today. Satellite loops, however, show that Isaac has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, the hallmark of a developing storm. These clouds have very cold cloud tops, indicating that the updrafts creating them are quite strong. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is becoming well-established to the southwest and northwest, but outflow is restricted on the southeast side. A large clump of heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles southeast of the center continues to compete for moisture, and is interfering with the low level inflow and upper level outflow of the storm. The intensification rate of Isaac will increase if the storm is able to integrate this clump of heavy thunderstorms into its circulation, which satellite loops this morning suggest is now beginning to happen. Radar imagery from Barbados and Martinique show plenty of heavy rain showers, mostly on the south side of Isaac where it is moister, but little spiral banding. Hurricane hunter missions are scheduled for Isaac every six hours, and a NOAA hurricane hunter research aircraft will also be in the storm, with missions scheduled every 12 hours. The NOAA jet is first scheduled to fly into the storm on Thursday afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Isaac taken from the Barbados radar at 10:15 am EDT. Image credit: Barbados Weather Service.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model shows that wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but is expected to relax by this evening to a low 5 - 10 knots. Ocean temperatures have increased to a very warm 29°C, and the storm is now over waters with a high total heat content. The lowering wind shear and warm waters should allow the storm to wall off the dry air that has been interfering with development, and also allow the storm to integrate the thunderstorm clump on its southeast side that has been interfering with low level inflow and upper level outflow. It will take some time for the increase in organization to result in an increase in Isaac's winds, and I still expect top winds of 45 - 60 mph in the Lesser Antilles Islands this evening when the core of the storm moves through. On Thursday, when Isaac will be in the Eastern Caribbean, conditions should be favorable enough to allow steady strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 47% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. This is a reduction in the odds given in the 5 am advisory.

Impact of Isaac on the Islands
The entire Lesser Antilles Islands chain will have a three-day period of heavy weather Wednesday through Friday. Sustained tropical storm-force winds extend out about 50 miles to the north of the center and 30 miles to the south, so an 80-mile wide swath of the Lesser Antilles will potentially see tropical storm-force winds of 45 - 60 mph this Wednesday evening. Guadaloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis at highest risk of these winds.

Winds in St. Croix in the Virgin Islands will likely rise above tropical storm force on Thursday morning, and the south coast of Puerto Rico should see tropical storm-force winds by Thursday afternoon. The San Juan airport may be able to stay open Thursday afternoon and evening, but I think it is more likely they will be forced to shut down.

On Thursday night, heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, and all airports in the D.R. will probably be closed on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Isaac is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from Isaac will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches are possible, which will be capable of causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti. It will be a major challenge to keep those Haitians living outside safe, if rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches occur.

Impact on Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are all at high risk of receiving hurricane conditions from Isaac. The latest set of 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs for Isaac are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a westward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola. All of the models then predict a more west-northwest track across the island and into eastern Cuba, as Isaac responds to a trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. Most of the models then predict a path for Isaac along the spine of Cuba, then into the Florida Straits off the coast of Miami by five days from now. A notable exception is our best-performing model, the ECMWF, which keeps Isaac just south of Cuba, and takes the storm more to the west between Jamaica and Cuba on Saturday, then into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba by Monday. However, this model is keeping Isaac weaker than the other models, and thus predicts the storm will have a weaker response to the trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. If the official NHC intensity forecast is right and Isaac becomes a hurricane on Thursday, the more southerly track of the ECMWF is not going to verify, and Isaac will spend considerable time over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. Where Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba will be critical in determining its future path and intensity. Some models predict a more easterly exit point, allowing Isaac to move up the east coast of Florida, and potentially make landfall in the Southeast U.S. The latest 06Z GFS model run predicts a more westerly track, which would potentially allow Isaac to move up the west coast of Florida towards Tampa. Keep in mind that the average error in a 5-day forecast is 260 miles. The two most recent runs of the GFS model, at 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT), gave positions for Isaac that were about 250 miles apart--the earlier run putting the center near West Palm Beach, and the more recent run giving a location between Key West and Havana, Cuba. While passage over the high mountains of Hispaniola and then Cuba will substantially disrupt Isaac and probably reduce it below hurricane strength, the storm is quite large, and should be able to re-intensify once it emerges over the Florida Straits. Waters will be very warm, near 30°C, wind shear is predicted to be light, and forecasts of the upper-level winds show the possibility of an upper-level outflow pattern very favorable for intensification. If Isaac spends a day over water, that should be enough time for it to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, and if the storm takes a longer 2-day track over water up either the east or west coast of Florida, a Category 2 or stronger storm is possible.

Isaac is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30, and the official NHC forecast now has Tampa in the 5-day cone of uncertainly. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 9% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of first day of the convention (Monday). I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. I put the odds of an evacuation occurring during the convention in the current situation at 3%.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Tropical Depression Ten forms in the Eastern Atlantic
The large tropical wave in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become Tropical Depression Ten. The depression has an impressive amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, as seen on visible satellite loops, and should be Tropical Storm Joyce by Thursday. None of the models show that TD 10 will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). The GFS model has been a close second. You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. Ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and GFDL were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2011, but were still respectable. The BAMM model did very well at 4 and 5-day forecasts. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2011, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence=a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link

Not a circulation? So I guess the pressure dropped to 1005 millibars for no reason?

This southward shift in the center is not good.
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Quoting SWLACajun:
Any ideas why the ecmwf shows Isaac going so far west? Some reason it thinks the storm would stay weak and therefore track furthur west?
It's weakness and the Bermuda High hanging tough over the southeast US because the trough doesn't dig as far south as the other models are implying.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link


Where are your west winds with that northern circulation? And considering the northern one has been there the entire time, how did it re-locate to that location? Satellite imagery is increasingly obvious, as well as recon data, that the center is reforming to the south.
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You Mean this. you spoiled my ending. DOOM!!!
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1339. Gearsts
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Quoting SWLACajun:
Any ideas why the ecmwf shows Isaac going so far west? Some reason it thinks the storm would stay weak and therefore track furthur west?


Several GFS ensemble members go just as far or farther west, so it's not unreasonable.
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Link
Not sure, why you guys think its reformed southward, this right here proves my point
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


Yes he is king wishcaster. Giving the legend/former wishcaster JFV a true run for his money on that front.
I can only read his quotes when other quote him cause of that.


dude stop it I am no king and certainly no wishcaster I am nothing close to that dipicable idiot JFV don't you dare match him up to me again

Quoting Relix:


I'd have the new one at around 15.2 59.3W


both of you could be correct

Quoting JLPR2:


I'll go with 15n-15.2n 59.2w.

maybe

Quoting MississippiWx:
This was the 2pm update. The center is ever farther south than this now due to the reformation. Will be interesting to see how the models respond.



hmm that if the models get the center right

Quoting matilda101:



I had put it at 15.2N and 60.0W about an hour ago


could be there too

Quoting Hurricanes305:


I doubt being a couple miles south of Land as a deepening system will cause it the lose the trough it could easily come to a stop and making a sharp NNW as the HWRF model track-wise.


strengthening system can also track further W though have a weakness to its N it has happen before yes it guys pulled up but some times it was not as far N as they had forecasted

Quoting DVG:


I was thinking 14.6/8 X 59.? something myself. Shortwave looks like a solid mass growing/spinning from there. How far off from the recon in time are the loops?


could be there too

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Quoting Tribucanes:
What an unusually presentation Isaac has. Now the storms west are outracing the new COC while the SE storms catch up. This will cause an elongated center eventually and will make Isaac slow to intensify imo. I don't see how Isaac pulls all this together any sooner than Friday. Such a tremendous amount of energy associated with Isaac. Talk about a storm in flux, never seen a presentation quite like this.


Unusually what?!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
School spent the majority of the day today closing shutters and trimming some of the larger trees on the campus. A bit drastic I believe, but good to see they're taking the safe side and keeping a close eye on Isaac.


Yes the Miami-Dade schools are very proactive when it comes to tropical weather. I guess you have to be when your the 4th largest school district in the US.

The district covers a total of 415 institutions,[28] including:

195 Elementary Schools
56 Middle Schools
23 K-8 Centers
37 High Schools
53 Charter Schools
23 Vocational Schools
5 Magnet Schools
18 Alternative Schools
5 Special Education Centers

With this many campuses they better start early.

*There are over 380,000 students in the district.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know everyone is hoping in my area that Isaac hits Haiti to be a weaker storm for us.. but I really hope Isaac moves south of Haiti. I don't want them to suffer anymore, they've had enough. Thousands of people in Haiti have died in the last few years alone from cyclones and let's not even dive into the quake..


Even if Isaac pass south of Haiti rain band will still have a lot of impact on the country.

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1331. Patrap
Impressive Org' spurt shows well in the ShortWave IR Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129763

Quoting RTSplayer:
In case anyone doesn't know since people keep posting out-dated model runs, the new Euro takes it into Louisiana and Mississippi as a strong hurricane, and then hooks westwards (i.e. left,) so quite a different scenario from most of the other models..

You Mean this. you spoiled my ending lol.

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Kudos to GetReal. He spotted/anticipated this center reformation on Barbados radar early this morning.

BARBADOS RADAR
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
What an unusually presentation Isaac has. Now the storms west are outracing the new COC while the SE storms catch up. This will cause an elongated center eventually and will make Isaac slow to intensify imo. I don't see how Isaac pulls all this together any sooner than Friday. Such a tremendous amount of energy associated with Isaac. Talk about a storm in flux, never seen a presentation quite like this.
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That new convection is pretty intense.



Still doesn't cover a huge part of the storm though. What it really needs is some convection on that dry north side.
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1326. LargoFl
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1325. WxLogic
Quoting JLPR2:
Rather healthy line heading inland.



Winds are at 20 to 25kts (with 30kts at times) in heavy showers at 3,000 feet. So wouldn't be surprised of some 20MPH wind gust (up to 30MPH) in heavier bands.
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Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ummm...No. You might want to rethink that statement.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
In case anyone doesn't know since people keep posting out-dated model runs, the new Euro takes it into Louisiana and Mississippi as a strong hurricane, and then hooks westwards (i.e. left,) so quite a different scenario from most of the other models..
This model has been pretty consistent with this westward march. Do you buy it?
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Taking into account a center relocation, can anyone figure out about how long before the center makes it into the basin? At 2 p.m. it was at 15.8N 60.2W and moving at 18 knots.
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1321. Ryuujin
RE: Get Real's image of one of the models.

So Mississippi, what do you think of my hunch? Seems to be edging that way again. Man, odd.

You gotta be flipping kidding me.
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Quoting islander101010:
anyone.know.of.a.major.that.landfalled.big.bend.. .i .dont

Not really much in that area regarding majors...



That one closest to the center on the right side was in the 1800s.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Ummm...No. You might want to rethink that statement.
do you have the coordinates to the new center ?
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1317. SLU
Meanwhile, the old center is now about 40 - 50 miles east of Guadeloupe devoid of any convection.
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Any ideas why the ecmwf shows Isaac going so far west? Some reason it thinks the storm would stay weak and therefore track furthur west?
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Hello everyone! If you look closely at the Satellite Loops very close, you will see an ULL is to the West of Isaac. This will keep Issac from becoming a truly Very large Huriccane as the ULL should create enough Shear to keep it under a Cat3 Cane. Models to forecast the ULL to move out and allow for better conditions to get better favorable for Isaac to get stronger as it nears Flordia. Florida appears to be in the sights of Isaac. Its very diffiuclt to say Isaac will move toward the West or East Side of Florida. One can only hope Isaac moves to the East of Florida. If Isaac moves on the West side of Florida the RNC might really have some problems with the Repubulican Convention in Tampa. Looks like the timing for Isaac will start about Monday for the Southern Tip of Florida and the Keys. This might become a wild ride depending on the enteraction of Land with the DR and Cuba. Need to watch this very close.
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In case anyone doesn't know since people keep posting out-dated model runs, the new Euro takes it into Louisiana and Mississippi as a strong hurricane, and then hooks westwards (i.e. left,) so quite a different scenario from most of the other models..
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ECMWF AT 192hr shows Isaac in central of the gulf.
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1311. Gorty
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like the storm is south of the models.
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Quoting wpb:
with the relocation the storm misses the effects or most of it from hispanols thus a much stronger system thus it would respond more to a weakness to its north



i tend to agree i dont think the NHC will change track much at 5pm South Florida still heavy favorite to feel the brunt of Isaac
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

There are 2 things wrong with your statement

1. The center has reformed to the north, not the south, if you looked at the Hurricane Hunter Data you'd know that.

2. the ATCF models havent updated since 9 AM Eastern this morning.
It's the other way around. It's reforming to south.
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1308. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129763
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

There are 2 things wrong with your statement

1. The center has reformed to the north, not the south, if you looked at the Hurricane Hunter Data you'd know that.

2. the ATCF models havent updated since 9 AM Eastern this morning.


Ummm...No. You might want to rethink that statement.
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1306. LargoFl
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think GFS is showing the exact scenario with this storm,ecmwf is lying to far to the west of the consensus ,but let's see what happens
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1304. hydrus
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1303. yqt1001
While MW missed the center, it's confirming that that new convection is atleast having some effect on organization. (atleast imho)

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Quoting GetReal:


Something is getting itself together there... Beginnings of an eye wall on the SE quad?


Eh, more like the beginning of a CDO...lol. Isaac seems to finally be getting his feet underneath him. Will probably take a while to build an eye wall.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yep.


I'll run with that......for now.
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Just a thought. I think people should look at tropical storm fay of 2008 and Hurricane Ernesto of 2006 as examples of how much track is determined by timing and land interaction. In this type of situation I think the error cone at 5 days should be much larger
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Quoting GetReal:


Something is getting itself together there... Beginnings of an eye wall on the SE quad?
Need mircowave imagery to confirm, but I doubt an eyewall. Radar shows some spiral banding developing there though.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't see any surface TS force sustained winds from the recon yet. Plenty of TS force flight level winds, but none from the surface.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 18:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 18:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°06'N 60°24'W (16.1N 60.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 86 miles (139 km) to the NE (50°) from Roseau, Dominica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,479m (4,852ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 68° at 35kts (From the ENE at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:39:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NW (314°) from the flight level center
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1297. Patrap
TS Isaac WV still image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129763
1296. Gorty
And then assuming we will actually have a winter this year, instead of trying to figure out from the models where a TC will go, we get to figure out where a snow storm could go.

The headaches doesnt end :p
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1295. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:


The 2 p.m. NHC path puts Tampa near the coc and on the dirty side of Isaac.
oh boy thanks for the info..sure hope that changes
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1294. JLPR2
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

There are 2 things wrong with your statement

1. The center has reformed to the north, not the south, if you looked at the Hurricane Hunter Data you'd know that.

2. the ATCF models havent updated since 9 AM Eastern this morning.


Hmm... no...
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1293. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon is going to have to alter their normal inbound approach if they are recognizing the SE reforming center. They appear to still be flying a pattern that recognizes the center on the vortex fix.


Noticed that.
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