Isaac lashing the Lesser Antilles; TD 10 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is lashing the entire Lesser Antilles chain of islands with heavy rains this morning, and the winds will be on the increase this afternoon as the storm heads west at 19 mph. Isaac is still a weak and disorganized tropical storm, but that is changing. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and have thus far found no increase in the storm's top surface winds, which remain near 45 mph. In their 7:44 am EDT center fix, an Air Force Reserve aircraft measured a rather unimpressive center pressure of 1007 mb, and top winds at their 1000 foot flight altitude of 56 mph. The plane did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. A large area of dry air to the north of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, continues to interfere with development, and it is unlikely Isaac will become a hurricane today. Satellite loops, however, show that Isaac has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, the hallmark of a developing storm. These clouds have very cold cloud tops, indicating that the updrafts creating them are quite strong. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is becoming well-established to the southwest and northwest, but outflow is restricted on the southeast side. A large clump of heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles southeast of the center continues to compete for moisture, and is interfering with the low level inflow and upper level outflow of the storm. The intensification rate of Isaac will increase if the storm is able to integrate this clump of heavy thunderstorms into its circulation, which satellite loops this morning suggest is now beginning to happen. Radar imagery from Barbados and Martinique show plenty of heavy rain showers, mostly on the south side of Isaac where it is moister, but little spiral banding. Hurricane hunter missions are scheduled for Isaac every six hours, and a NOAA hurricane hunter research aircraft will also be in the storm, with missions scheduled every 12 hours. The NOAA jet is first scheduled to fly into the storm on Thursday afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Isaac taken from the Barbados radar at 10:15 am EDT. Image credit: Barbados Weather Service.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model shows that wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but is expected to relax by this evening to a low 5 - 10 knots. Ocean temperatures have increased to a very warm 29°C, and the storm is now over waters with a high total heat content. The lowering wind shear and warm waters should allow the storm to wall off the dry air that has been interfering with development, and also allow the storm to integrate the thunderstorm clump on its southeast side that has been interfering with low level inflow and upper level outflow. It will take some time for the increase in organization to result in an increase in Isaac's winds, and I still expect top winds of 45 - 60 mph in the Lesser Antilles Islands this evening when the core of the storm moves through. On Thursday, when Isaac will be in the Eastern Caribbean, conditions should be favorable enough to allow steady strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 47% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. This is a reduction in the odds given in the 5 am advisory.

Impact of Isaac on the Islands
The entire Lesser Antilles Islands chain will have a three-day period of heavy weather Wednesday through Friday. Sustained tropical storm-force winds extend out about 50 miles to the north of the center and 30 miles to the south, so an 80-mile wide swath of the Lesser Antilles will potentially see tropical storm-force winds of 45 - 60 mph this Wednesday evening. Guadaloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis at highest risk of these winds.

Winds in St. Croix in the Virgin Islands will likely rise above tropical storm force on Thursday morning, and the south coast of Puerto Rico should see tropical storm-force winds by Thursday afternoon. The San Juan airport may be able to stay open Thursday afternoon and evening, but I think it is more likely they will be forced to shut down.

On Thursday night, heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, and all airports in the D.R. will probably be closed on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Isaac is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from Isaac will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches are possible, which will be capable of causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti. It will be a major challenge to keep those Haitians living outside safe, if rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches occur.

Impact on Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are all at high risk of receiving hurricane conditions from Isaac. The latest set of 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs for Isaac are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a westward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola. All of the models then predict a more west-northwest track across the island and into eastern Cuba, as Isaac responds to a trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. Most of the models then predict a path for Isaac along the spine of Cuba, then into the Florida Straits off the coast of Miami by five days from now. A notable exception is our best-performing model, the ECMWF, which keeps Isaac just south of Cuba, and takes the storm more to the west between Jamaica and Cuba on Saturday, then into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba by Monday. However, this model is keeping Isaac weaker than the other models, and thus predicts the storm will have a weaker response to the trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. If the official NHC intensity forecast is right and Isaac becomes a hurricane on Thursday, the more southerly track of the ECMWF is not going to verify, and Isaac will spend considerable time over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. Where Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba will be critical in determining its future path and intensity. Some models predict a more easterly exit point, allowing Isaac to move up the east coast of Florida, and potentially make landfall in the Southeast U.S. The latest 06Z GFS model run predicts a more westerly track, which would potentially allow Isaac to move up the west coast of Florida towards Tampa. Keep in mind that the average error in a 5-day forecast is 260 miles. The two most recent runs of the GFS model, at 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT), gave positions for Isaac that were about 250 miles apart--the earlier run putting the center near West Palm Beach, and the more recent run giving a location between Key West and Havana, Cuba. While passage over the high mountains of Hispaniola and then Cuba will substantially disrupt Isaac and probably reduce it below hurricane strength, the storm is quite large, and should be able to re-intensify once it emerges over the Florida Straits. Waters will be very warm, near 30°C, wind shear is predicted to be light, and forecasts of the upper-level winds show the possibility of an upper-level outflow pattern very favorable for intensification. If Isaac spends a day over water, that should be enough time for it to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, and if the storm takes a longer 2-day track over water up either the east or west coast of Florida, a Category 2 or stronger storm is possible.

Isaac is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30, and the official NHC forecast now has Tampa in the 5-day cone of uncertainly. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 9% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of first day of the convention (Monday). I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. I put the odds of an evacuation occurring during the convention in the current situation at 3%.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Tropical Depression Ten forms in the Eastern Atlantic
The large tropical wave in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become Tropical Depression Ten. The depression has an impressive amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, as seen on visible satellite loops, and should be Tropical Storm Joyce by Thursday. None of the models show that TD 10 will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). The GFS model has been a close second. You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. Ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and GFDL were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2011, but were still respectable. The BAMM model did very well at 4 and 5-day forecasts. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2011, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence=a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
There is no telling exactly what the storm will do intensity wise after leaving Cuba and a close call between the general a/b/c scenario on the table right now (just West of FL in the Gulf-Into South Fl-on the Eastern Side of Florida). All folks in Florida need to prepare for this storm because of the huge size/impacts.

Post-Florida,there is going to be some last minute scrambling by lots of folks, on either side of the equation (from Gulf Side to Eastern Seaboard), depending on what happens on Monday with the updated 3-Day track if the storm stays offshore and does not make initial Florida landfall right after crossing Cuba.
yeah probably up the eastern seaboard not too many are paying attention to this storm..oh thats a florida storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting WindshearWillie:
I would like to take a moment from the hurricane watch to speak about another sorta weather topic.


Many thanks to TWC for sending the hyper-annoying Stephanie Abrams off to NYC. Instead of having to listen to her step all over Mike B and other cohosts with her lame jokes all morning now we just get one hour of that WUWA circus. That's the hour I can catch up on news before turning back to Mike B and the extremely hawt Maria Larosa and the unfortunately named Jenn Carfagno.


Thanks TWC. I was going to send a muzzle to your studios in Atlanta but banishment to NYC will suffice.


hating cause someone loves their job...we all should be so lucky! enjoy life..#whiteboy/girl problems...once the storm gets stronger i think it will fill the tug north in the weakness in the ridge as it nears the haitian/dr border, quite sharp turn at that...im still on with levi's prediction and the gfs in general.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok guys looking at surface data radar and satellite there could be a curculation near 15.8N 60W but there seems to be even stronger data that would support a circulation near 15N 60.5W/01.0W/ near Martinique so just keep that in mind can't wait for hunter to fly into it


This is too funny....
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There is no telling exactly what the storm will do intensity wise after leaving Cuba and a close call between the general a/b/c scenario on the table right now (just West of FL in the Gulf-Into South Fl-on the Eastern Side of Florida). All folks in Florida need to prepare for this storm because of the huge size/impacts.

Post-Florida,there is going to be some last minute scrambling by lots of folks, on either side of the equation (from Gulf Side to Eastern Seaboard), depending on what happens on Monday with the updated 3-Day track if the storm stays offshore and does not make initial Florida landfall right after crossing Cuba.
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Quoting JasonRE:
Seems it's still moving due West? When is the TURN supposed to happen?


In 3 days
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Seems it's still moving due West? When is the TURN supposed to happen?
Member Since: August 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
Quoting Patrap:


Cool, I see my shrink tomorrow at 08:30 myself.

; )


LOL.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok guys looking at surface data radar and satellite there could be a curculation near 15.8N 60W but there seems to be even stronger data that would support a circulation near 15N 60.5W/01.0W/ near Martinique so just keep that in mind can't wait for hunter to fly into it

I agree with you that the circulation appears south of the 11am advisory..The circulation is broad and general...note the huge blowup of thunderstorms on the SE side trying to wrap into the storm. Isaac continues to move due west with perhaps a slight slowdown in forward speed.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 281
Quoting Levi32:


Well yes. If it's farther away from the trough, less likely to get sucked into it.

Alright, thanks
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000
WTNT24 KNHC 221446
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1500 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...A ND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 59.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 59.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 58.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 70.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting Levi32:
I'm out to an annoying appointment for a couple of hours. Back later.


Cool, I see my shrink tomorrow at 08:30 myself.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The Day 7 Elipse (or cone) shows a margin of error that stretches all the way from the Central Gulf to Virginia. I can make that kind of forecast all day long, without any maps or models, and have a high probability that Isaac will end up somewhere within that cone. Until the models start coming together at Day 7, this is still a crapshoot. We now resume our normal arguing about who's forecast is correct. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13113
Quoting opal92nwf:

But if it eventually stayed north/west of the cone (example would be if it just continued to move west and not turn as soon as it is predicted), would it be less subject to the pull of the trough/weakness?


Well yes. If it's farther away from the trough, less likely to get sucked into it.
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seems like El nino is lying
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Quoting Levi32:


It's right now actually north of all of the consensus forecasts from the last several days by 0.5-1.0 degrees.


It was supposed to be at 15.5N 58.4W at 12Z today, per yesterday's 12Z forecast,

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 58.4W

But in actuality...
LOCATION...15.9N 59.3W
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
I'm out to an annoying appointment for a couple of hours. Back later.
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.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's right now actually north of all of the consensus forecasts from the last several days by 0.5-1.0 degrees.

But if it eventually stayed south/west of the cone (example would be if it just continued to move west and not turn as soon as it is predicted), would it be less subject to the pull of the trough/weakness?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
So I took time and plotted the last few NHC center fixes on a map, a trend appeared...



DOOM?!?!
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marco.island.florida.might.dissapear.for.a.while
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4326
I have the center passing south of Guadeloupe based on METAR obs.

Bursting pattern indicates that this has not intensified since last night.

If not, this is severely elongated.

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Pat, thanks for posting the surge maps...

I also believe many of the emergency management sites have information about flood zones and evacuation zones online... am I wrong to think that?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21483


That solution has popped up the last 4 days on the GFS, so that's another Ping for the area I'd say.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Tampa is getting worried...............Tampa won't hesitate to pull the plug on the Republican National Convention next week if Tropical Storm Isaac threatens the Tampa Bay area as a major storm, mayor Bob Buckhorn told CNN this morning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855



Looks like the SAL is less of an issue coming off Africa
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So I took time and plotted the last few NHC center fixes on a map, a trend appeared...

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
If that (GFS) track verifies, then I seriously doubt Isaac will ever be more than a 50mph tropical storm. The major threat from this with that track is when it slows late in the period and there could be some serious flooding issues in the SE.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
NIIICCCEEE.... what's your source, guy?
LoL, Baha, the source is linked back in my last post(479): Harry Plumblee, PhD, REALTOR
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ok guys looking at surface data radar and satellite there could be a curculation near 15.8N 60W but there seems to be even stronger data that would support a circulation near 15N 60.5W/01.0W/ near Martinique so just keep that in mind can't wait for hunter to fly into it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11003
Quoting opal92nwf:

Levi, I see Isaac seems to still be moving due west, (not that this is a big deal because it could start moving WNW any minute). But if Isaac were to take a path on the very southern part of the NHC's cone or even farther west/south, would it feels less of a pull from the trough/weakness to the north?


It's right now actually north of all of the consensus forecasts from the last several days by 0.5-1.0 degrees.
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Looking closely at the RainBowTop Loop, notice how the mean center seems to be between the 2 Large East/ West Lobes.

With that firing of the CoC near that new Cluster, the storm may be "Bi-lobing" a better organized inner structure.

If so, this may be the beginning of a Sustained attempt to build a actual Warm Column.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Still west....very interesting....can't wait to see the track when a fixed coc is available.
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Quoting cluelessthunder:
When will the NHC update? please and ty


Next official update is at 2PM so in 45 min or so.
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Quoting islander101010:
storm.could.be.as.big.as.the.cone


That would be a little interesting. Didn't Ike and Katrina do something similar?

Still hoping it passes south of Haiti, but if it is going to be the size of Pluto, it won't really matter.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
I saw someone post a graphic concerning that with a past storms. Maybe that person or someone else can post a link or chart.
Wunderground has SLOSH maps tagged on the front Tropical page...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21483
... Hurricane preparedness...

With the potential for Tropical Storm Isaac to impact west central
and southwest Florida by early next week... now is the time to take
precautions and secure your property. The following are some
suggestions for preparing for the storm.

Grocery stores may sell out of items soon. Stock up on...
batteries for radios and flashlights
canned or dried food and drinking water
first aid supplies
prescription medicine
Cash... credit cards and atm's may not work without power
fuel for automobiles... generators and chain saws

Around the house...
store loose items such as trash cans or yard furniture
secure windows with shutters... boards... etc.
Make sure battery operated radios are working
move boat to a safe location
trim large trees that could fall on house
make sure valuable papers are secure

Make reservations now. Plan to evacuate if you live...
in a Mobile home
on the coast
in a low lying flood prone area
in a high rise

from our local met office here in tampa bay areas
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12z UKMET nearly identical to the 12z GFS.

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When will the NHC update? please and ty
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes in general it is the worst, only better than the NOGAPS lol.

Levi, I see Isaac seems to still be moving due west, (not that this is a big deal because it could start moving WNW any minute). But if Isaac were to take a path on the very southern part of the NHC's cone or even farther west/south, would it feels less of a pull from the trough/weakness to the north?
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Very rarely, if ever, have I downcast a system. Currently I have to downcast Isaac. This system is poorly organized by any standard. The LLC, located on 60W near 15.3N is clearly exposed and fighting to retain TS status. IMO it will take Isaac to slow down to a more reasonable speed (15mph) in order to literally come together. I do not see this occurring for at least another 48 hours.
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Quoting guygee:
NIIICCCEEE.... what's your source, guy?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21483
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Wants to make Drak feel at home :)


LOL. Good agreement among the ensemble members.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting Patrap:



Any Large CV TS Storm has plenty of untapped Potential SST wise downstream..need ones ultimate respect.

I dot forecast as I am not a met.

But chances are increasing that a CONUS Bound Hurricane may have travel plans is what I will offer.

Very well said,thanks
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just so you know..the Euro starts running around 1:45ish est..so if you got to take a bathroom break or eat lunch, do it now..LOL..Im out till later..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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