Isaac lashing the Lesser Antilles; TD 10 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is lashing the entire Lesser Antilles chain of islands with heavy rains this morning, and the winds will be on the increase this afternoon as the storm heads west at 19 mph. Isaac is still a weak and disorganized tropical storm, but that is changing. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and have thus far found no increase in the storm's top surface winds, which remain near 45 mph. In their 7:44 am EDT center fix, an Air Force Reserve aircraft measured a rather unimpressive center pressure of 1007 mb, and top winds at their 1000 foot flight altitude of 56 mph. The plane did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. A large area of dry air to the north of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, continues to interfere with development, and it is unlikely Isaac will become a hurricane today. Satellite loops, however, show that Isaac has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, the hallmark of a developing storm. These clouds have very cold cloud tops, indicating that the updrafts creating them are quite strong. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is becoming well-established to the southwest and northwest, but outflow is restricted on the southeast side. A large clump of heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles southeast of the center continues to compete for moisture, and is interfering with the low level inflow and upper level outflow of the storm. The intensification rate of Isaac will increase if the storm is able to integrate this clump of heavy thunderstorms into its circulation, which satellite loops this morning suggest is now beginning to happen. Radar imagery from Barbados and Martinique show plenty of heavy rain showers, mostly on the south side of Isaac where it is moister, but little spiral banding. Hurricane hunter missions are scheduled for Isaac every six hours, and a NOAA hurricane hunter research aircraft will also be in the storm, with missions scheduled every 12 hours. The NOAA jet is first scheduled to fly into the storm on Thursday afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Isaac taken from the Barbados radar at 10:15 am EDT. Image credit: Barbados Weather Service.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model shows that wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but is expected to relax by this evening to a low 5 - 10 knots. Ocean temperatures have increased to a very warm 29°C, and the storm is now over waters with a high total heat content. The lowering wind shear and warm waters should allow the storm to wall off the dry air that has been interfering with development, and also allow the storm to integrate the thunderstorm clump on its southeast side that has been interfering with low level inflow and upper level outflow. It will take some time for the increase in organization to result in an increase in Isaac's winds, and I still expect top winds of 45 - 60 mph in the Lesser Antilles Islands this evening when the core of the storm moves through. On Thursday, when Isaac will be in the Eastern Caribbean, conditions should be favorable enough to allow steady strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 47% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. This is a reduction in the odds given in the 5 am advisory.

Impact of Isaac on the Islands
The entire Lesser Antilles Islands chain will have a three-day period of heavy weather Wednesday through Friday. Sustained tropical storm-force winds extend out about 50 miles to the north of the center and 30 miles to the south, so an 80-mile wide swath of the Lesser Antilles will potentially see tropical storm-force winds of 45 - 60 mph this Wednesday evening. Guadaloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis at highest risk of these winds.

Winds in St. Croix in the Virgin Islands will likely rise above tropical storm force on Thursday morning, and the south coast of Puerto Rico should see tropical storm-force winds by Thursday afternoon. The San Juan airport may be able to stay open Thursday afternoon and evening, but I think it is more likely they will be forced to shut down.

On Thursday night, heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, and all airports in the D.R. will probably be closed on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Isaac is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from Isaac will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches are possible, which will be capable of causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti. It will be a major challenge to keep those Haitians living outside safe, if rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches occur.

Impact on Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are all at high risk of receiving hurricane conditions from Isaac. The latest set of 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs for Isaac are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a westward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola. All of the models then predict a more west-northwest track across the island and into eastern Cuba, as Isaac responds to a trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. Most of the models then predict a path for Isaac along the spine of Cuba, then into the Florida Straits off the coast of Miami by five days from now. A notable exception is our best-performing model, the ECMWF, which keeps Isaac just south of Cuba, and takes the storm more to the west between Jamaica and Cuba on Saturday, then into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba by Monday. However, this model is keeping Isaac weaker than the other models, and thus predicts the storm will have a weaker response to the trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. If the official NHC intensity forecast is right and Isaac becomes a hurricane on Thursday, the more southerly track of the ECMWF is not going to verify, and Isaac will spend considerable time over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. Where Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba will be critical in determining its future path and intensity. Some models predict a more easterly exit point, allowing Isaac to move up the east coast of Florida, and potentially make landfall in the Southeast U.S. The latest 06Z GFS model run predicts a more westerly track, which would potentially allow Isaac to move up the west coast of Florida towards Tampa. Keep in mind that the average error in a 5-day forecast is 260 miles. The two most recent runs of the GFS model, at 00Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT), gave positions for Isaac that were about 250 miles apart--the earlier run putting the center near West Palm Beach, and the more recent run giving a location between Key West and Havana, Cuba. While passage over the high mountains of Hispaniola and then Cuba will substantially disrupt Isaac and probably reduce it below hurricane strength, the storm is quite large, and should be able to re-intensify once it emerges over the Florida Straits. Waters will be very warm, near 30°C, wind shear is predicted to be light, and forecasts of the upper-level winds show the possibility of an upper-level outflow pattern very favorable for intensification. If Isaac spends a day over water, that should be enough time for it to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, and if the storm takes a longer 2-day track over water up either the east or west coast of Florida, a Category 2 or stronger storm is possible.

Isaac is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30, and the official NHC forecast now has Tampa in the 5-day cone of uncertainly. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 9% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of first day of the convention (Monday). I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. I put the odds of an evacuation occurring during the convention in the current situation at 3%.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Tropical Depression Ten forms in the Eastern Atlantic
The large tropical wave in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become Tropical Depression Ten. The depression has an impressive amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, as seen on visible satellite loops, and should be Tropical Storm Joyce by Thursday. None of the models show that TD 10 will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). The GFS model has been a close second. You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. Ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and GFDL were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2011, but were still respectable. The BAMM model did very well at 4 and 5-day forecasts. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2011, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence=a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1143. LargoFl
Quoting Gorty:
People who post the 2 PM, 8 PM, 2 AM and 8 AM NHC tracks, you do realize that those are just repeated from the last major advisory right? They only update the track and forecast intensity at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM and 11 PM.
yes but in the meantime until they DO change the track, its still valid right?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1141. Gorty
Quoting Matt1989:
Isaac is not going to do much moving at the current speed... it needs to slow down before it can organize..It is having the same problem as ernesto. The mid level center isn't stack with the low level.. Thus putting a halt on strengthening.. This is why I prefer the EURO model because it is keeping it weaker then other models.


And from Ernesto, we all know what a cyclone can do when in a favorable environment...

btw for the record, JB was right with Ernesto, intensifying close to land and remaining weak till then.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I have a feeling that with Isaac LLC relocating/reforming further South the forecast track will shift South and West but quite a bit I thnik Isaac will stay South of Hispaniola and Cuba maybe crossing over Western Cuba less land interaction and because of that maybe a stronger storm
And over Cayman Islands, I assume... *facepalm*
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When Jim Cantore shows up anywhere between Panama City and Pensacola Beach, then I'll start to get worried. He was here earlier this year for Debbie, but she had a mind of her own. What's most interesting to me is that Issac seems to be following a track and development similar to Ivan in 2004, and for anyone on the Fl. panhandle, that bears watching.
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This large danzatore may just maybe a little to big to spin. The teacher is getting impatient.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Recon should be finding southerly or southeasterly winds where they are now if the center is indeed at 16.1 N.


well right now they have East winds and just a little bit South of that they had East South East

so as they move North winds keep on shifting North hmm Isaac is an interesting system
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I have a feeling that with Isaac LLC relocating/reforming further South the forecast track will shift South and West but quite a bit I thnik Isaac will stay South of Hispaniola and Cuba maybe crossing over Western Cuba less land interaction and because of that maybe a stronger storm
You don't care how many people get killed downstream do you? Just as long as you get your major near the Caymans.
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1135. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Full GFS ensemble not out yet, Here is the first.

A small shift to the south will make the difference between a nuisance and flooding event, or a major disaster.
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at 144hr ECMWF  Isaac does not hit any land areas going thru the Yucatan Channel.
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1132. Gorty
People who post the 2 PM, 8 PM, 2 AM and 8 AM NHC tracks, you do realize that those are just repeated from the last major advisory right? They only update the track and forecast intensity at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM and 11 PM.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
1131. LargoFl
gee is this ever going to end? more boomers coming in from the gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Quoting JasonRE:


I'm confused. Is this map worth anything or is just another guess? And WHY is it so far West compared to the existing track of Isaac? I know these are just models but why is this one so far West?


We're talking about 5+ days in advance. The average error for track at 5 days is over 250 miles. There is about 250 miles between the Euro and GFS. It's not that uncommon.
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Isaac is not going to do much organizing moving at the current speed... it needs to slow down before it can organize..It is having the same problem as ernesto. The mid level center isn't stack with the low level.. Thus putting a halt on strengthening.. This is why I prefer the EURO model because it is keeping it weaker then other models.
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Have to see what he looks like in a couple hours but, it looks to be all connected now.

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1127. sar2401
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
From StormCaribe

- Barbados

Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2012 14:52:29 -0400
The rain is here in ChristChurch. It is wild, windy, driving, heavy rain. The street lights have come on. The low grey clouds are moving very fast.



Thankfully, if the street lights are comng on, that means they still have power. Assuming it doesn't get worse, it sounds like a strong tropical wave so far.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14544
Quoting HrDelta:


I am so skeptical of that solution.

I am wondering about the logic of the Euro on this one. Why do they have it going west.

Well if the center reforms further south that could make the Euro's scenario more likely. That wouldn't indicate skill in the Euro however, there's no way a model could pick up a center reformation. It would just get lucky.
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1124. LargoFl
Quoting wpb:
think it would make the storm stronger then it would follow that weakness ay 84 hours
..yes true, there is going to be alot of nail biting before this one is over lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wpb:
that a relocation of the center in your op


its what i see
iam normally
not to far off the mark
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1122. JasonRE
Quoting MississippiWx:


Link


I'm confused. Is this map worth anything or is just another guess? And WHY is it so far West compared to the existing track of Isaac? I know these are just models but why is this one so far West?
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1121. sar2401
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
12Z Euro is faster than 0Z.

Also further north/east in medium range, but landfall still looks like Louisiana.


Or, Mobile, AL. No one seems to be talking about that at all, but the models that have Isaac go into the Gulf are all showing landfall either in Pensacola or Mobile. If it's just a cat 1, it won't be a big deal. A strong cat 3 making a direct south hit on Mobile Bay is our nightmare scenario. It's still at least seven days off, and track and intensity mean everything, but Isaac is one of the few storms since 2005 that shows Mobile as a possible target.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14544
From StormCaribe

- Barbados

Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2012 14:52:29 -0400
The rain is here in ChristChurch. It is wild, windy, driving, heavy rain. The street lights have come on. The low grey clouds are moving very fast.

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So, it looks like the model consensus for Isaac is for landfall somewhere on the Peninsula of FL. With the consistency over the past several days, I do not expect this to change (still could though).

Based on my past experiences with strong tropical storms and low end hurricanes impacting the Orlando area (Erin '95, Irene '99, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Alberto '06, Barry '07, Fay '08 and Debby '12), I expect 5-15" of rain and possibly wind gusts to tropical storm force as the center of Isaac makes its closest approach.
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Quoting Chiggy:
Issac will end up just south of Jamaica - any takers on that scenario?


I think you are right
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For selfish reasons, this needs to take the FL route or somehow get jolted east of there. A track like the Euro is showing would be devastating to someone along the N Gulf Coast as it would have a lot of time over open water and favorable upper level conditions. The Euro has not shown a storm bombing out all season long. Just goes to show what could happen if it took that path. If it hugged the FL West Coast, it would most likely not be very strong. However, flooding could be terrible. Still plenty of time for changes and they could easily change for the better!
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Quoting TampaCat5:
If a new center is forming almost a full degree south, I am seriously doubting the current forecast track and excpect it to miss Haiti to the south and to shift far west of Tampa. We'll see...


Hard to make out a case for a center north of the 15N latitude line on any of the satellite images.
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Recon should be finding southerly or southeasterly winds where they are now if the center is indeed at 16.1 N.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
That 12z Euro is Beyond Bad.....but premature panic does no good for ones health....esp if ya might need your wits about you for later.....cliche "wait and see" esp until it's a hurricane with a defined coc and more track consensus.
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1113. HrDelta
Quoting MississippiWx:
Euro at 192.



I am so skeptical of that solution.

I am wondering about the logic of the Euro on this one. Why do they have it going west.
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Water vapor imagery shows an ULL to the NE of TS Isaac. Looks like that system is close enough to disrupt TS Isaac. I also wonder if it is wrapping some drier air into Isaac as well. In any case, you can see a flattening of Isaac in the NE quadrant. Looks like these two systems are interacting, but I don't know for how long.

Link
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1111. Chiggy
The NHC'a initial intensity guidance yesterday calling for a cat-2 in the Caribbean falls flat on their faces..
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
1110. hydrus
And once the large storm has good momentum, they take longer to weaken, even when they move inland. Hugo comes to mind..WIKI-The storm reached Charlotte, roughly 150 miles (240 km) inland, only six hours after landfall. By this time, it was still a fairly strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and gusts of 87 mph (140 km/h).[16] This was enough to topple trees across roads and houses, leaving many without power, closing schools for as long as two weeks, and spawning several tornadoes. The storm took many in the area by surprise, especially since many coastal residents from both Carolinas often wait out storms there.

By 7:00 am, it was still strong enough to cause heavy rain and tear down hundreds of trees in Conover.[17]

In all, 29 counties in North Carolina were declared federal disaster areas, with damages in that state alone estimated at $1 billion (1989 USD, $1.87 billion 2012 USD).
Quoting Patrap:
A Larger Ballerina takes more time to get the arm's inward unlike a smaller CV System.


So as far as the Appearance goes, they affect a much greater area as to impacts.

Note the amount of Atmosphere Isaac is moving around.

When these Large Cyclones get that momentum going around in Ernest, the water its moving has to go somewhere.

Track and Strength downstream will most likely have a wider area of Coastal Watches and Warning just to the large nature of the threat.



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1109. wpb
Quoting LargoFl:
..this is the track I..believe in and am preparing for, tampa bay IS going to feel something from this storm,could only be tropical storm force winds and rain, but..we will..be prepared if it gets worse than that huh
think it would make the storm stronger then it would follow that weakness ay 84 hours
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It would also appear any kind of center relocation to the south would not be good news...in fact, the alleged new center is about 75 miles SE of the current center.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
I have a feeling that with Isaac LLC relocating/reforming further South the forecast track will shift South and West but quite a bit I thnik Isaac will stay South of Hispaniola and Cuba maybe crossing over Western Cuba less land interaction and because of that maybe a stronger storm
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
End of Euro, Isaac dissapating in Arkansas, while Joyce is stuck under the ridge....is that really going to recurve much with a 1020mb isobar above it?



My guess is that the future Joyce would catch the same trough as Isaac and recurve if the run continued past 240 hours. Might clip the outer banks though. But this is all speculation upon speculation at this point. :P
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1104. icmoore
Quoting BeanTech:


your.misuse.of.periods.is.very.annoying....


Not to me.
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1103. LargoFl
..lurkers..this IS the official track for issac at this time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1102. Chiggy
Issac will end up just south of Jamaica - any takers on that scenario?
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

Quoting JasonRE:


I have been through hurricanes but live inland in Lafayette. So no, I haven't experienced the threat as much as NO or other places. But, to each his/her own.

JasonRE I Live not to far from you in Baton Rouge and I have been in just two bad Hurricanes here and those two hurricanes are Hurricanes Andrew & Gustav. Rita & Katrina was not real bad in my location. Here is the point I am trying to make here and Patrap & Grothar 
and anyone else here can join in on this subject because it is important to discuss this is that Louisiana or any other state except Mississippi has never experienced a Category Five Hurricane before. If a Cat 5 like a Hurricane Camille with winds of 190mph with gust of 200+ would to hit your area Lafayette or mine Baton Rouge would still get winds of at least 130 140+ mph. That is a high cat 3 or low cat 4 in your area.

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Quoting Jwd41190:
Not many tropical storm winds seemed to have been found by the recon...Possible downgrade?


No. They've been scooping out the fact that there are two circulations. All the stronger winds are on the south side, they have been investigating the northern side.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting Jwd41190:
Not many tropical storm winds seemed to have been found by the recon...Possible downgrade?


Hasn't been in the NE quadrant yet, or under the heavier convection. Should find some 40-45mph winds in there.

Even if it doesn't, I'd be willing to wager a large sum of money that the NHC wouldn't downgrade it.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
If, God forbid, Isaac goes into the Gulf headed NW as a minimum cane; what would stop him from majoring?
Almost nothing :\
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Euro at 192.

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Quoting want2lrn:
It seems like alot of the same thigs were being said about Ernesto at this stage of the game. Is it possible that similar conditions are going to result in similar outcomes? For example, he is moving too fast to really strengthen? I am sure there are hundred of thousands of people who would love for that scenario to play out. Also it appears he is actually speeding up from last night, does that not lower the odds of being in the right place to feel the trough?


Ernesto was a lot smaller, and a lot farther south that Isaac is. Storms like Dolly and Fay in 2008 also had similar problems Isaac is having.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting presslord:


that's just an insignificant little Bush League football team nobody cares about....


pfft, so you are a sidewalk south carolinian? dont even support the home team? ;)
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1094. wpb
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
09L/TS/I/CX
MARK
15.29N/59.89W
that a relocation of the center in your op
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez, gams, I never thought u'd turn down a chance to rag on press... lol



I am trying my best to be a nice person; especially since I may be here on this blog a lot more often the next few days!!!!

but it was in my "second nature" to give a smart ass reply! LOL

but I took the high road! I will let Pottery do it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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