Tropical Depression Nine approaches the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012

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Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the waters a day's journey from the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed west towards the islands at 20 mph. This storm could be trouble for much of the Caribbean, and may affect the mainland U.S. next week. TD 9 is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and will keep development slow today. This morning's visible satellite loops show that TD 9's heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the north side, due to the dry air. TD 9 has yet to develop a good upper level outflow channel, which will also keep development slow today. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that the winds at high levels are blowing fairly uniformly from the east over the storm, and these winds would have to take on a more counter-clockwise pattern over TD 9 to produce the most efficient upper-level outflow. The clump of heavy thunderstorms to the southeast of TD 9 is also a limiting factor; this clump of heavy thunderstorms is competing for moisture and interfering with the low level inflow and upper level outflow of the storm. However, if TD 9 manages to wrap in this extra clump of heavy thunderstorms and add their spin to its own spin, it could become a very large and dangerous storm. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around TD 9's circulation center, but this is being hampered by dry air. The center of TD 9 passed about 20 miles to the north of buoy 41040 at 10 am this Tuesday morning. The buoy recorded top winds of just 18 mph this morning, suggesting that this is not yet Tropical Storm Isaac. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 9 is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 9.

Intensity forecast for TD 9
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 28°C this morning to 29°C by Wednesday afternoon, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period. The low wind shear and warm waters will favor strengthening. The main impediment to development through Wednesday will be dry air to the north, though the storm will also have trouble separating from the clump of thunderstorms to its southeast. I expect that TD 9 will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday. The official NHC forecast of a 60 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon is on the aggressive side, and I put the most likely range of strengths for TD 9 Wednesday afternoon at 45 - 60 mph. Once TD 9 enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to a hurricane. Intensity forecasts 4 - 5 days out are low in skill, though, and it would not be a surprise at all to see TD 9 struggle like so many other storms have over the past two years, and remain a tropical storm over the next five days. Conversely, rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now, as the official NHC and HWRF model forecasts are suggesting may happen, would also not be a surprise.

Impact of TD 9 on the Islands
The entire Lesser Antilles Islands chain will have a three-day period of heavy weather Wednesday through Friday, as TD 9 and the associated area of heavy thunderstorms to its southeast passes through. Sustained tropical storm-force winds of 40 - 60 mph will occur in the islands only on Wednesday, with Guadaloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Martinique, Dominica, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis at highest risk of these winds.

TD 9 will make its closest approach to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and heavy rains from the storm will affect these islands Thursday through Saturday. Tropical storm-force winds should remain just south of these islands.

On Thursday night, heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. If the center of TD 9 remains offshore, as appears likely, heavy rains from TD 9 will still be a danger to the country. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating flash floods and mudslides. We can't rule out a direct hit on the Dominican Republic on Thursday evening or Friday morning, since the country is well within the NHC cone of uncertainty.

TD 9 is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from TD 9 will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches are possible, which will be capable to causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti.

Longer-range outlook for TD 9
Heavy rains from TD 9 will begin in Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Friday night, but our vision of where the storm might be headed after Friday gets blurry. The official NHC track forecast at long ranges is heavily weighted towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which have done the best job predicting TD 9's path so far. In general, the models have been predicting a track too far to the north for TD 9, and I expect the storm will remain south of Hispaniola, avoiding the disruptive impact of that island's high mountains. While the current NHC forecast has TD 9 hitting Cuba just north of Jamaica five days from now, keep in mind that the average error in a 5-day forecast is 260 miles. Given the tendency of the models to predict a track too far to the north for this storm, and this season's general steering pattern that has already taken two storms into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, we should not be surprised if TD 9 takes a more southerly path than the official NHC forecast, and potentially become a threat to western Cuba or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. A trough of low pressure capable of pulling TD 9 to the north enters Western Canada Thursday, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough as it crosses the U.S. this weekend will determine the ultimate landfall location of TD 9. The ECMWF model has a more northwards position for the trough, and thus keeps TD 9 moving more slowly and father south than the GFS. Both of these models predict an eventual landfall for TD 9 over Florida, and TD 9 is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30. I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. The odds in the current situation are higher, somewhere in the 1% - 3% range. It would take a "perfect storm" sort of conditions to all fall in place to bring TD 9 to the doorstep of Tampa as a hurricane during the convention, but that is one of the possibilities the models have been suggesting could happen.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) is in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the west, suggesting that a surface circulation may be trying to form. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does not show any organization to the precipitation echoes, though, and visible satellite loops show that 95L is small and disorganized, and some arc-shaped low clouds expanding away from the storm on its north side suggest 95L is ingesting dry air that is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts, robbing the storm of moisture and energy. The computer models show that 95L should drift westwards over Mexico by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic 450 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 mph. This disturbance has an impressive amount of spin, as seen on visible satellite loops, and a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is under a light 5 - 10 knots of wind shear. Given that TD 9 has moistened up the atmosphere ahead of 96L, this disturbance should have less of a problem with dry air. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. This disturbance will track nearly due west the next three days, then is expected to turn more to the west-northwest late this week, bringing it close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday.

Typhoon Tembin a threat to Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, we have Typhoon Tembin, which put on a very impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, going from a 50 mph tropical storm to a Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds in just 24 hours. Tembin is currently a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds, and is expected to hit Taiwan on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. Farther out to sea, Typhoon Bolaven has formed northwest of Guam. Bolaven is expected to become a Category 3 typhoon as it heads toward China, and may pass very close to Taiwan this weekend.


Figure 3. Typhoon Tembin near the Philippines on Monday August 20, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1294. mgwxta19
12:27 AM GMT on August 22, 2012
Great post - very detailed. As it's now become TS Isaac, I notice the ECMWF is way further south and the GFS brings it up the U.S. East Coast. I really do feel for the folks in Haiti and hope by some stroke of luck they are spared the worst of this . . . even at tropical storm strength - yikes. Of course, the storm is just now developing and isn't strengthening all that quickly. And as many have noted above, the model guidance will shift all over the place between now and whatever landfall it might make.
Member Since: July 10, 2012 Posts: 12 Comments: 0
1293. 12george1
11:10 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Oh no, this is the "I" named storm
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 260
1292. redwagon
9:11 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes you are right TS Isaac

Do you know much about the 'haircuts' storms get traveling just S of all the islands on the way to GOM?

I can't remember the exact cyclones that got them and were track-impacted by them, but I do recall it happening....
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
1291. BahaHurican
8:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting WoodyFL:


Man your are sick to use the picture of a dead lady to make of the people on this blog. Ive seen some stunts but you really need helpp




Heres a link to it. Wow, man low

Link
Was expecting this... that character has been trolling this blog as an elderly person with a hope in the potential hurricane path for a couple years now... recognised the prose and the storyline right away....

Sad.

BTW how did u search for the picture? WUmail me if u don't want to continue on the blog...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
1290. seminolesfan
8:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Link

For those curious about the euro ensemble data this is a cool link.

Go play around and get the N America loop playing...

Look at the shaded areas; Those are the std deviations of the different members that comprise the ens mean.

This run shows that an eastward bias from the ops run will be statistically more likely, based on the ensemble members' runs.

Questions? Comments?
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1289. Matt74
8:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
well so far the track of td9 is gonna miss east coast florida and by tommorow i think the track will have it missing the west coast of florida and by sunday might be even further west i pretty much said it would miss florida 3 days ago and so far im right on they usually keep moving these tracks further away every day
Your not gonna get plussed for this statement. In fact you might get reported!!! lol
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
1288. SFLGirl1
8:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Link


This was posted a few moments ago from our local West Palm Beach News
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1287. 954FtLCane
8:39 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
"A Hurricane is not a dot on the map"
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
1286. SSideBrac
8:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting clwstmchasr:


The Caymans should be ok with Isaac. Looks like it will turn early enough to spare them the worst.


Hopefully - but will not drop my guard on this one till we are well clear.
Regardless, it is going to bring serious consequences to many people - sooner or later - perhaps to Haiti first.
As I have often thought, living in "Hurricane Alley" can seem to be a bit like being in front of a firing squad - saying "Shoot him - not me" - someone will suffer!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
1285. hydrus
8:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
12z Euro Ensembles just came out. Look at the Gulf.

oooohh dat look nasty
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
1284. hydrus
8:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting bappit:

Yeah. In two days the five day forecast will be only a three day forecast.
I was trying to say that it will be easier to latch on to when it has intensified ya fricken grouch....:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
1283. redwagon
8:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Yes!!! It appear some kind of spin went by not too long ago! It really got us

Great news! It doesn't appear the storm will pan out for Centex :(
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
1282. TomTaylor
8:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
12z Euro Ensembles just came out. Look at the Gulf.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1280. yonzabam
8:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting wolftribe2009:
This is a really big storm. It is big enough to cover the length vertically across the Caribbean the whole way through. Can it get any bigger if it hits the gulf? That would be a scary thing to see but impressive.

Link



Wilma.

Could it . . . . ? Nah.





Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3012
1279. catastropheadjuster
8:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting txwcc:
CPC just came out with their 6-10 outlook. They sure are onboard with a landfall somewhere in the Southeast...



By this graph here this should already tell us alot don't cha think? Look where all the rain is. Again I'm probably wrong like usual.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1278. MarcoIslandCat5
8:00 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Good afternoon All
Been watching Isaac/td9 like a hawk since it left Africa,
I have a bad feeling about this one guys the shear scale of this storm is frightening he is gonna be a big cane when it gets it's self together with anywhere 200 miles+ from centre feeling his effects! I will be stocking up on my supplies this weekend on marco and making sure the genarator is up to scratch South Florida Storm IMHO. Back to lurking.
Member Since: October 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
1277. HuracanTaino
7:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting ecupirate:


Straight to the Cayman islands I'm sure...
ha,ha, Ecurate, you made me laugh....Cayman kid is just excited, but he is a very smart blogger , providing interesting insights as well.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1008
1276. STXHurricanes2012
7:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
This..is exactly what our guy in Brownsville texas wanted..the rains from 95L to come to his area..looks like it is finally.........................SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

GMZ130-132-TXZ253>257-212100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN. ..
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
203 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 4 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CAMERON COUNTY, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WILLACY AND EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY.

$$

Yes!!! It appear some kind of spin went by not too long ago! It really got us
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1275. mynameispaul
7:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Charliesgirl:





It took us 8 hrs to get to the Florida state line but that was the Sunday before Katrina. I do think Rita was worse. People had just seen what a hurricane can do a few weeks before.


My small town got inundated with Katrina refugees - no gas and our 1 grocery store sold out of food. Then a few weeks later we got all the Rita evacuees coming from Texas and we still had thousands of Katrina folks here. It was a rough situation.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
1274. HuracandelCaribe
7:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Here in Carolina we are under  nice Tstorm.
Quoting JLPR2:
TW ahead of TD 9 is bringing me a rather decent thunderstorm.


Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
1273. TequillaXX
7:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting wolftribe2009:


wasn't it worse in houston with Rita?


It was pretty bad. 10 hrs to Austin (NW), more to Dallas (I-45 N) with bus fires and no gas. Since then TxDOT has added contra flow lanes (although they've never been used)
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1272. Charliesgirl
7:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting cat6band:


I'm not sure of that...I just know it was a parking lot here in NOLA....I did 85 mph going I 10 east to Fl.





It took us 8 hrs to get to the Florida state line but that was the Sunday before Katrina. I do think Rita was worse. People had just seen what a hurricane can do a few weeks before.
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
1271. sunlinepr
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1270. mynameispaul
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Im not buying the westward shifts in the models as this is about 5-6 days away from the US. So there will be slight shifts However they stays right in the vicinity Florida for 3 days now. By the way I have gut feeling that this could be a Major Crossing over Cuba.


Do you put more faith in long-range forecasts if there is consistency with several different models?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
1269. LSUCaneGirl
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting cat6band:



A bunch...for Katrina, 1 mile= 4hrs.. heading west....I went east!!!


Oh gosh, let's not even discuss contraflow ..I was at Tulane in '05 and it took HOURS to get home to Baton Rouge.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
1268. Dodabear
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting presslord:


there is really no place for that sorta reasonable talk here...


Needs to be closer to the Carolinas to be worthwhile, right Press??? LOL
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
1267. wunderkidcayman
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:
Just a reminder, the proper spelling according to NHC is Isaac.


yes you are right TS Isaac
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
1266. Clearwater1
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Redbull77:

this is a weather blog where people look at every model available. just because i happen to live on the gulf coast doesnt mean i want it to come here, but when a model shows it coming here i am gonna show it on the blog just like everyone else shows any models that come to there area. we are on here to learn about forcasting and seeing all the different models has taught me alot about which ones to trust and which ones not to. If you don't like what people are posting, no matter where they live, then go to another site. I am tired off people getting called out for discussing the weather and having there own opinions. back to lurking
Exactly what I was thinking, redbull. For crying out loud, it's a weather blog with mostly amateurs like myself, who enjoy looking at models, making predictions and waiting to see if they pan out. I think most here know that the NHC is darn good at what they do and when it come down to it, that's who most listen to. So, yep, go back to lurking and let the kid eat his bowl of cereal while he predicts the weather. Better than out robbing a liquor store.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
1265. HuracanTaino
7:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:
TW ahead of TD 9 is bringing me a rather decent thunderstorm.

Yes, I guess that even it isn't directly related to Isaac, it feels as the first band of the storm. I'm getting some weather in the west of Puerto Rico as well.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1008
1264. sunlinepr
7:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1263. MiamiHurricanes09
7:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
18z dynamical package has more interaction with Hispañola, and less (nearly no) interaction with Cuba (as far as the TVCN is concerned). You can take it as both good and bad news. It can be viewed as bad news since it would have more time to intensify over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic without Cuban interaction, whereas, this is somewhat good news (from a selfish point of view) since Hispañola's mountains will be far more helpful in disrupting the circulation as opposed to Cuba's terrain.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1262. Hurricanes305
7:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Im not buying the westward shifts in the models as this is about 5-6 days away from the US. So there will be slight shifts However they stays right in the vicinity Florida for 3 days now. By the way I have gut feeling that this could be a Major Crossing over Cuba.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1260. ecupirate
7:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'd say TS Issac's LLC seems to now moving W on last frame note LLC may get dragged into the convection to the SW


Straight to the Cayman islands I'm sure...
Member Since: July 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
1259. stormhank
7:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
granted way far out to say but Im guessing a track between Ivans in 2004 to Floyds in 1999 just my opinion..
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1258. presslord
7:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:
Just a reminder, the proper spelling according to NHC is Isaac.



See what I mean?!?!?!?! Ya'd never get that kinda helpful input from Rob Fowler...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1257. masonsnana
7:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
boy if it reaches you, its a bad one
Bring that my way not Isaac OK?
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
1256. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1255. sunlinepr
7:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1254. LargoFl
7:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FLZ067-212030-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO
55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI TO 8 MILES EAST OF OKEELANTA...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
US 98...
US 441...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2660 8029 2647 8063 2673 8067 2693 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 174DEG 8KT 2676 8038 2658 8059

$$

BAXTER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
1253. Patrap
7:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z



Sniffs and High Flyers as well from McDill.

That will help out finding some end lines downstream.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1252. Chucktown
7:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Just a reminder, the proper spelling according to NHC is Isaac.

Link
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1251. islander101010
7:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
going.with.nhc.not.some.kook.off.the.internet
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5002
1250. LargoFl
7:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting masonsnana:
My local mets said it will stall just north of me but I havn't seen it make much of a move to the south this afternoon.
boy if it reaches you, its a bad one
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
1249. sunlinepr
7:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1248. Patrap
7:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
TS Isaac moving a lot of Atmosphere around.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1247. masonsnana
7:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Is this trough going to make it down to say..Miami?........
My local mets said it will stall just north of me but I havn't seen it make much of a move to the south this afternoon.
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
1246. wpb
7:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 211431
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 21 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 22/1800Z, 23/0000Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLOME B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 22/1600Z C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.7N 60.0W D. 15.9N 61.5W
E. 22/1730Z TO 23/0000Z E. 22/2130 TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0609A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W D. 16.2N 64.6W
E. 23/0530Z TO 23/1200Z E. 23/0900Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z


Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
1245. OceanMoan
7:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting StormJunkie:


Afternoon OM, good to see you. Keeping an eye on this one I'm guessing?


Most definitely, especially after seeing a few things you posted on FB. :-)
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
1244. sunlinepr
7:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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