Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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4131. avthunder
12:38 AM GMT on August 23, 2012
Quoting 954Soxfan:
I don't wish a storm on anyone else but selfishly I am glad to see that South Florida looks like it will dodge yet another bullet. I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
So which Sox, White or Red? And don't be too sure about dodging that bulett . Too early to say for sure, even though the models are trending towards Tampa. Still in the windshield wiper stage after 72 hours.
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 317
4130. PensacolaDoug
10:25 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
4129. wunderkidcayman
4:42 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
hmm TD9 seem to be stationary now after just taking a jog true N should fall back to WSW-S of due W soon
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4128. Waltanater
4:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting lovemamatus:
Don't take your eye off of the ball. Im talking about 96L. Shes four days behind Isaac, and she looks like she means business.

Get with the Pros....96L...The Storm's Storm!!!
They are like 2 velociraptors entering the kitchen! LOL.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
4127. Waltanater
4:28 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting NOLALawyer:
"That's no moon....that's a space station."

Yeah, you're right...Chewey get us out of here!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
4126. Waltanater
4:10 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting E46Pilot:
Whenever the forecast models show a FL hit this early, it always misses us.
I would normally agree with you, but on this one I think it is odd that the models haven't really changed in the last 2-3 days. Conditions may be good enough to keep these models in agreeance, even for the long term. ie The environment may not be so complex to introduce variables that may sway a model another way. This may be more accurate than you think, given the current conditions of course. If FLA is still in the 4-5 day cone and the models have not moved, it may be a sure bet by then.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
4125. Waltanater
3:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I'm ready for another flood of 2009 again...that was awesome to watch... 1 in 500yr floods are awesome..

But im not counting on anything yet

anyway, ill be back this afternoon guys
That would be 2 in 500 years then if it does happen! But yes they are AWESOME!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
4124. SFLGirl1
3:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
One of the 6Z 986MB going into me



No liking it either!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
4123. wunderkidcayman
3:30 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
recon should be in the air in about 30min to an hour from now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4122. SFLWeatherman
3:26 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
One of the 6Z 986MB going into me
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
4121. wunderkidcayman
3:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
after the hunters fly in we should know where the LLCOC is and how strong the system is this will then be put into the models and current location it will be interesting to see what happens
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4120. SFLWeatherman
3:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
12Z it going to me fun a Hurricane!!:) Cat2 or 3 going to S FL

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
4119. wunderkidcayman
3:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting wn1995:


What are they doing? I know they aren't going to 09l, too far, they would take off from st croix. Sampling the environment in the e carrib?


maybe relocating to st croix and sampling the air while flying there

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4118. weaverwxman
3:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
If it crosses cuba as a hurricane why don't the NHC send a ton of planes into the Fla straights and drop a million tons of ice and cool it down. just wondering lol
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
4117. SFLWeatherman
3:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
They are going to st croix
Quoting wn1995:


What are they doing? I know they aren't going to 09l, too far, they would take off from st croix. Sampling the environment in the e carrib?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
4116. wn1995
3:16 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
just to let you guys know one of NOAA's P3's took off and is enroute to the E Caribbean



What are they doing? I know they aren't going to 09l, too far, they would take off from st croix. Sampling the environment in the e carrib?
Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
4115. wunderkidcayman
3:12 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
just to let you guys know one of NOAA's P3's took off and is enroute to the E Caribbean

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4114. kwgirl
3:08 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting scooster67:


how long is the blog going to put up with this TROLL?
I don't see him unless you quote him. That's what the ignore button is all about.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
4113. DaytonaBeachWatcher
3:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting FOREX:
I have been reading this blog for a long time, but never felt intelligent enough to post comments. I really enjoy reading everyones comments and as I continue to learn, will start posting. Happy to be a member.


Welcome!
First of all, as you can plainly see, you dont have to be intelligent to post here....
Second, You ARE intelligent and proved it by not posting but watching for a while...

Glad to have you!
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1135
4112. westpalmer
3:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2012

Quoting 954Soxfan:
... I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
I hope you are right.  But what information exactly gets you there at this stage?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
4111. FOREX
3:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
I have been reading this blog for a long time, but never felt intelligent enough to post comments. I really enjoy reading everyones comments and as I continue to learn, will start posting. Happy to be a member.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 846
4110. antiguaboy396
3:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Am under a tropical storm warning :/
Member Since: August 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
4109. wunderkidcayman
2:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Yes sir,,Things could get really ugly out there. This is not good either, the Bermuda High is forecast to shift west.

if it shift W then expect track to shift S and W

Quoting txwcc:


Recon will go in there and discover the LLC is .3 or .4 degree south of that...probably at 14.7N.


yep


NHC will keep location at 15.1N till the HH recon goes in then they will change it to WSW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4108. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #9

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
4107. PalmBeachWeather
2:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting 954Soxfan:
I don't wish a storm on anyone else but selfishly I am glad to see that South Florida looks like it will dodge yet another bullet. I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
Sox.You and everyone else have no idea.... Please refrain from making that type of comment... Some poor soul may listen to you and not get prepared. OK?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5754
4106. hydrus
2:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Brownsville Radar

Definitely a little spin heading for the TX/MX border...Forecast for the Eastern Caribbean is nasty...Fishing will have to wait..AMZ023-212015-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
547 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.TODAY...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
LATE. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.WED...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 55 TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...
BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS.
.THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N WINDS 55 TO 65 KT...
BECOMING NW TO N 45 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.FRI...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.SAT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19601
4105. BahaHurican
2:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
At last!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
4104. Kumo
2:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Gramma1948:


Whats the Euro dear?


Good morning Granny. The Euro is one of the major forcast models in use by atmospheric scientists today.
Member Since: August 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 145
4103. floridaboy14
2:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
thank you wunderbot
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
4101. FOREX
2:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
I remember Jim Cantore saying many months ago that he is one of the smartest guys that work at TWC.

Referring to Carl Parker that is.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 846
4100. hurricanehanna
2:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
getting a late start this am...I see TD9 is looking better. I know what the models are showing but I don't think anyone can take their eyes off of this...too many variables could change that track.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
4099. DrMickey
2:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting aquak9:

EuroDeer are small and frail, with bad teeth.

What's the vector, Victor?
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
4098. CothranRoss
2:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I know this is off topic, but the real quote is "boy, that escalated quickly" and not "well, that escalated quickly". :)
Member Since: April 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
4097. WhereIsTheStorm
2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting StormJunkie:

BR>Morning all ;)

So stayed up long enough to see 09 get its convection together last night. Will be interesting to see what the models say the next four runs with an organized system and data getting fed in to them. Now we should begin to get a refinement of that Apalachicola to OBX cone.


Good to see you here. My initial thought was that this TD was going to go across the FL Keys and up the west coast of FL; but it seem like the high coming down and the strength of the storm itself are going to push it north along the East Coast of Florida or slightly off the east coast going to all points north.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
4096. snotly
2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Recon will find that it is at 90.0 N and moving west.

Quoting txwcc:


Recon will go in there and discover the LLC is .3 or .4 degree south of that...probably at 14.7N.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
4095. LargoFl
2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Brownsville Radar

looks like they were right about 95 moving in westward
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33452
4094. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
4093. LargoFl
2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33452
4092. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Brownsville Radar

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
4091. wunderkidcayman
2:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
right
TD9 is moving WSW-S of due W

TD9 is below 15N

expecting a shift in cone to the S and W

Recon need to get out in TD9 soon can't wait for flight

95L ain't goin to do a think thats why recon's was canned

GIV will fly on 23rd and please to welcome back the NOAA's P3's will be flying in TD9 going to be a busy couple of days

Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211431
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 21 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 22/1800Z, 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 22/1600Z
D. 15.7N 60.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 23/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.9N 61.5W
E. 22/2130 TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71--
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W
E. 23/0530Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
A. 23/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0609A CYCLONE
C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.2N 64.6W
E. 23/0900Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.


3. REMARK: INVEST MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
21/1600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/0930Z.


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4090. aquak9
2:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Gramma1948:


Whats the Euro dear?

EuroDeer are small and frail, with bad teeth.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25507
4089. Maineweatherguy20023
2:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


ECMWF says yes at 240hrs.


WOW!! nnever would of known. Trof picking it up?
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 240
4088. hydrus
2:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
And if the Bermuda High shifts west, this will likely make it to the gulf. jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19601
4087. GetReal
2:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting CaribBoy:
15.1N

Stop saying this thing is going south looooool





Looks like 15.1 to me????
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
4086. Patrap
2:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Brownsville Radar

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
4085. LargoFl
2:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting txwcc:


Thank you Largo for posting all these warnings...

-Kristina
np stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33452
4084. Neapolitan
2:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Both 1995 and 2011 saw 7 named Atlantic storms form in August, while 2004 saw 8. (1997, OTOH, saw none.) The 1995-2011 average is 3.9, so 2012 is already ahead of that. (And speaking of 1995-2011--the so-called "active period"--the average through the end of August has been 6.6, so 2012 is ahead of that, as well. 2005 had 12 named storms through the end of August, so 2012 would have to spin up Isaac plus just two others in the next ten days to stay even.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13296
4082. HurricaneDean07
2:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Since when is Carl Parker (TWC) a Hurricane Specialist. I dont see anything that qualifies him.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
4081. zoomiami
2:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
[JWP]




Does that mean that for TD9 they will be leaving at 2:00 this afternoon?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.