Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky you:)I don't have that when school starts and my school tries to block out wifi.
I starts school next Monday so my final summer as a kid is closing :\ Next summer will be busy for me as I prepares to go to college.
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79. 7544
looks like 95l wants to shoot east at this hour

94l needs alittle more time but could be a td latter on today imo

the question is will 96l follow 94l and give fl a one two punch ?

next in line 97l where will it be enjoy your coffee everyone things will be getting interesting soon min. away from the next gfs run
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Quoting sar2401:


Umm...sure...OK...huh?


Have you not seen videos of people who can literally light their running water on fire? I personally would prefer not to drink flammable "water", and am pretty angry at NC legislato(R)s for approving fracking here.
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What I've learned over the past year on this blog is that I need to be patience with EVERY storms. I am slowly getting more patience with each storms I tracks. Last year at this time, I was freaking out that 97L wasn't gonna make it but I was slapped in the face when 97L became Hurricane Irene over my state. PATIENCE IS KEY TO EVERY STORM!
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Good morning all,

94l is too far out for anybody to have a good handle on it right now. In my humble opinion we should all wait another 24 hrs. to have a better idea of future track
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Quoting duranta:


But the trade off is the loss of underground aquifers to the fracking process. Folks and animals have become ill from exposure to the chemicals on their own properties. The radioactive waste water is dumped into sewer systems and water bodies. This is not acceptable.


Umm...sure...OK...huh?
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
what is the concensus on development of 95L? southeast texas sure could use some more rain


The models show everything from a quick landfall back into Mexica, a trip across Mexico to the Pacific, and a possible landfall somewhere in STX. No one really knows. Given the history of this long running depression/storm, I'm inclined to go with a quick landfall back into Mexico, but the weak cold front currently making its way into the Gulf might pull 95L towards Texas if both 95L and the cold front hold together.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
GFS, LBAR, or BAMS.... Which of the three is the most reliable... Sorry still learning...



GFS then BAMM last is LBAR
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94L could be a serious threat right around the time we are observing the anniversary of Katrina......
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Quoting waveRoller:


Yea, but once 94L gets West of that SAL... game on.


Yes, with the exception of land interaction which may or may not interfere with the cyclone, conditions are forecast to be quite favorable.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Posting from school's liberty, I see ;) I'm glad my mom is a teacher so I can use her computer for a hour during school's lunch period.

Lucky you:)I don't have that when school starts and my school tries to block out wifi.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Thanks DRM. At some point down the waterway, it will lose the SAL, dry air and slow down.


Another great point as I forgot about it's forward speed. It most definitely needs to slow down, but these systems that are void of central convection are usually fast movers, the more thunderstorms it builds, it will begin to readjust its momentum.
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GFS, LBAR, or BAMS.... Which of the three is the most reliable... Sorry still learning...

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Quoting Kristina40:
I don't like the looks of that, Get Real. I've been watching it as well.


It is currently the closest show to CONUS....
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I could see it getting confirmed a TD today... If it can show off a bit of a better Satellite appearance... And then Get named Isaac tomorrow when HH go through it... As for 95L... I think the HH will find that it's not fully closed yet, and they will up the chances for development to 50% and try to investigate again tomorrow or wednesday...

95L will need to persist a lot more, throughout the day and into Tomorrow before having a shot of being called something... As soon as it hit DMIN last night, it completely collapsed. And then DMAX this morning notice how all the convection fired up... Its still very much supported by the front that's coming down...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
95L is an interesting blob for now

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SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
953 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W 1012 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN
TURN W AND MOVE INLAND THE COAST OF NE MEXICO WED.
THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Like doc said you can see SAL has been wrapped deeply into this system stretching all the way back to Africa.



60 mph cyclone around the Antilles may even be generous. SAL has really been a big player so far this season. 94L does have a nice circulation but is completely void of storms.


Yea, but once 94L gets West of that SAL... game on.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


I think you should switch the place between TS Gordon and Invest 94L to make it understandable. Like Invest 94L being the headline while TS Gordon to the sidebox.


Ok... yeah I needed some help with this...I though I wouldn't be much confusing by leaving some space between them but it's alright also Gordon would be over soon so I'll change the heading for 94L. thanks for it
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The way I see it right now...

East Coast: 60%
Caribbean and then the Gulf Coast: 30%
Caribbean and then the Yucatan: 10%


For whatever that's worth.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Like doc said you can see SAL has been wrapped deeply into this system stretching all the way back to Africa.



60 mph cyclone around the Antilles may even be generous. SAL has really been a big player so far this season. 94L does have a nice circulation but is completely void of storms.
Thanks DRM. At some point down the waterway, it will lose the SAL, dry air and slow down.
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Quoting poknsnok:
94l may be history later today.. too much dry air. looks bad on visible

Irene(97L) last year, looked WAY worse when it was in 94L's position.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
I don't like the looks of that, Get Real. I've been watching it as well.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Like Dr M. Stated 94L is likely a depression now, won't be confirmed until HH aircraft tomorrow


He did not say that

He did say however

"The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon."
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Quoting mcluvincane:




Saweeeeet graphics, very good analysis also



thank you...
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Like Dr M. Stated 94L is likely a depression now, won't be confirmed until HH aircraft tomorrow

I could see it getting confirmed a TD today... If it can show off a bit of a better Satellite appearance... And then Get named Isaac tomorrow when HH go through it... As for 95L... I think the HH will find that it's not fully closed yet, and they will up the chances for development to 50% and try to investigate again tomorrow or wednesday...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Interesting, seems it actually got the bulk of the SAL out of the way. It's not completely void of storms, just the convection is limited. I believe steady intensification is likely, not rapid.


I do agree that the deepest of the SAL is out of the way but looking at the visible it has the looks that dry is is a bit more significant than what the SAL maps show.

Usually if a make an observation on any system the exact opposite transpires shortly after ;) so... lol

Tonight should be the start of something more impressive as enters both warmer waters and diurnal maximum kick in. Still looks as if some of its circulation is still attached to the ITCZ too somewhat.
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Quoting yqt1001:


Well smart phones these days can do quite a bit. :P
Duh, forgot about them :)
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That new satellite does have some neat images







Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11465
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Posting from school's liberty, I see ;) I'm glad my mom is a teacher so I can use her computer for a hour during school's lunch period.


Well smart phones these days can do quite a bit. :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The way I see it right now...

East Coast: 60%
Caribbean and then the Gulf Coast: 30%
Caribbean and then the Yucatan: 10%
Posting from school's liberty, I see ;) I'm glad my mom is a teacher so I can use her computer for a hour during school's lunch period.
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Thanks Dr. You are basically not siding with the current models showing an East Coast threat due to the continued weakness of the storm because of dry air issues and continued Westward movement into the Caribbean as a result........No way to tell what will happen in the long-term because of the current model divergence but you have made an interesting call (either Yucatan or Florida Gulf).... Even that is "split"........... :)
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someone chime in if they think I am wrong but my thinking is that if 94L stays weak enough a further south and west track is more likely and may not feel the effect of the trough. A stronger system before reaching hispanola, feels the pull to the north possibly up the east coast.
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The way I see it right now...

East Coast: 60%
Caribbean and then the Gulf Coast: 30%
Caribbean and then the Yucatan: 10%
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Thx Doc for the update.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
UPDATED GRAPHIC ON GORDON AND 94L


Gordon is noted in the upper right hand corner... as well as 95L to the left
This graph applies to 94L IF the center of the storm remains below the latitude of Hispaniola.. by going through it then the intensity changes but most of the models so far keeps Isaac to the south...

NOTE: for wind intensities ...add or take 5 mph. It's not exactly so.

BRIEF SUMMARY:


94L should become a TD and TS by tomorrow...where I have the 45 mph line mark... then cross the Lesser Antilles (south of PR) as a strong tropical storm and gain hurricane status before nearing Hispaniola, depending how close it passes by Hispaniola would keep Isaac as a hurricane or not...but I do keep it so and slowly intensifying them go by Jamaica and into Cuba. Many models take Isaac into western Cuba as a strong hurricane but I do not because Hispaniola plays an important role..I think 95L has a 50/50 chance of dragging Isaac towards the GOM... but chances are it won't. there is still the possibility that the storm could turn NW and N for an East coast impact totally missing the Gulf...both Scenarios are reflected in the path but it trends fore towards Cuba and entering the Gulf of mexico as a very strong hurricane possibly a major hurricane.



for a larger image for yourself...Link


I want to know what you think...
I'll update the graph later this evening...after some updated from NHC and new model runs


I think you should switch the place between TS Gordon and Invest 94L to make it understandable. Like Invest 94L being the headline while TS Gordon to the sidebox.
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95L seems to have possibly made the connection to the front that is currently across the northern GOM. Waiting to see if it will react and start moving ENE.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
UPDATED GRAPHIC ON GORDON AND 94L


Gordon is noted in the upper right hand corner... as well as 95L to the left
This graph applies to 94L IF the center of the storm remains below the latitude of Hispaniola.. by going through it then the intensity changes but most of the models so far keeps Isaac to the south...

NOTE: for wind intensities ...add or take 5 mph. It's not exactly so.

BRIEF SUMMARY:


94L should become a TD and TS by tomorrow...where I have the 45 mph line mark... then cross the Lesser Antilles (south of PR) as a strong tropical storm and gain hurricane status before nearing Hispaniola, depending how close it passes by Hispaniola would keep Isaac as a hurricane or not...but I do keep it so and slowly intensifying them go by Jamaica and into Cuba. Many models take Isaac into western Cuba as a strong hurricane but I do not because Hispaniola plays an important role..I think 95L has a 50/50 chance of dragging Isaac towards the GOM... but chances are it won't. there is still the possibility that the storm could turn NW and N for an East coast impact totally missing the Gulf...both Scenarios are reflected in the path but it trends fore towards Cuba and entering the Gulf of mexico as a very strong hurricane possibly a major hurricane.



for a larger image for yourself...Link


I want to know what you think...
I'll update the graph later this evening...after some updated from NHC and new model runs




Saweeeeet graphics, very good analysis also
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Like Dr M. Stated 94L is likely a depression now, won't be confirmed until HH aircraft tomorrow


The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though.

IMO I don't think he explained it that way. He never stated that it was a depression already. It still in fact is aways from it. It has things going for it, but it has to maintain convection for probably at least 24 hours before NHC even debates classifying it. As of right now it is nothing more than a naked swirl.
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Thanks, Dr. Masters. Wish you can post the comments like you did last night...
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94l may be history later today.. too much dry air. looks bad on visible
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Like doc said you can see SAL has been wrapped deeply into this system stretching all the way back to Africa.



60 mph cyclone around the Antilles may even be generous. SAL has really been a big player so far this season. 94L does have a nice circulation but is completely void of storms.


Interesting, seems it actually got the bulk of the SAL out of the way. It's not completely void of storms, just the convection is limited. I believe steady intensification is likely, not rapid.
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I have a theory. The theory is the Weather Channel never was the same after the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. I remember I always liked the Weather Channel before and during those seasons. They were conservative in the sense that they only heavily advertised something if it was happening and it was something to really be concerned about. I remember the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. It was a field day for the Weather Channel, they had new reporters in the field like Mike Bettes and Stepahanie Abrahms. They made a great show, and it was REAL. Their rating must have SOARED. Looking back on youtube videos from back then, I see how calm they were during the hurricanes. Calmer in the sense that they would have their storm alert time for a hurricane, and then they would take just as much or more time talking about the weather for the rest of the country. It was pretty much the same for the 2005 season, although they did start to jazz thing up near the end, it was more understandable because that was an unbelievably bad year. But for 2006 on, it's just overhyping and pure sensationalism. I remember in 2006, when Alberto and Ernesto were threatening Florida as tropical storms, I vividly remember on the Weather Channel that all they would do is talk about that situation, and it was only a tropical storm! You could just feel the wanting of a real dire situation from the Weather Channel, they just wanted more and more and more of 2004-2005's countinued thunder, during when it seemed like the world depended on the Weather Channel. Of course around 2007? they got their new studio, and some big news company took over the Weather Channel, which further exasperated the situation. They fired most of their long time reporters to replace them with young, good looking, models... The only peope they kept were the ones that really made the Weather Channel what it was: Jim Cantore, Dr. Forbes, etc... And now today, what do you see on the front page of their website? TROPICAL WAVE 1000 MILES EAST OF THE ANTILLES COULD BE A THREAT. Come on! GET REAL WEATHER CHANNEL! Only have a headline like that if it's already a hurricane in the Caribbean with a track to the Gulf. Not to say that they should not warn people of an upcoming long term threat of a wave or storm in the Atlantic. So the bottom line is, THE WEATHER CHANNEL WAS NEVER THE SAME AFTER THE 2004-2005 HURRICANE SEASONS.
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UPDATED GRAPHIC ON GORDON AND 94L


Gordon is noted in the upper right hand corner... as well as 95L to the left
This graph applies to 94L IF the center of the storm remains below the latitude of Hispaniola.. by going through it then the intensity changes but most of the models so far keeps Isaac to the south...

NOTE: for wind intensities ...add or take 5 mph. It's not exactly so.

BRIEF SUMMARY:


94L should become a TD and TS by tomorrow...where I have the 45 mph line mark... then cross the Lesser Antilles (south of PR) as a strong tropical storm and gain hurricane status before nearing Hispaniola, depending how close it passes by Hispaniola would keep Isaac as a hurricane or not...but I do keep it so and slowly intensifying them go by Jamaica and into Cuba. Many models take Isaac into western Cuba as a strong hurricane but I do not because Hispaniola plays an important role..I think 95L has a 50/50 chance of dragging Isaac towards the GOM... but chances are it won't. there is still the possibility that the storm could turn NW and N for an East coast impact totally missing the Gulf...both Scenarios are reflected in the path but it trends fore towards Cuba and entering the Gulf of mexico as a very strong hurricane possibly a major hurricane.



for a larger image for yourself...Link


I want to know what you think...
I'll update the graph later this evening...after some updated from NHC and new model runs
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so, north carolina is the possible spot as of now? makes sense to me. Dr. Masters is even saying a trough of low pressure could be capable of pulling it north. It is the last part of his forecast that scared me about going into the caribbean far west enough before going north north eastward towards florida's gulf coast
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From the previous blog:

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's not forget 96L behind 94L...



Also, how strong is this typhoon?



96L looks to do what 94L can't.

Dr. Masters: "This disturbance does not have much model support for development." You might wanna tell that to the GFS LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley