Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category five out of TD9 in the medium range, that is how favorable its environment is out ahead of it, especially with SSTs near 82-85F and wind shear near 5 knots or lower as an Upper Level Anticyclone continues to build over our depression.


Don't forget this... OHC
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
834 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1N...LONGITUDE 51.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 860 MILES EAST OF SAINT CROIX
VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLOODING OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND NOON AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001 >013-VIZ001-002-
221245-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
834 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. STRONGLY
CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES OR
FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AND DO SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 13 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 63 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...AND PUERTO RICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THESE RAINBANDS WILL GENERATE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE RAPID
RIVER RISES ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND GUTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE CHANCE OF AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS...AS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REMEMBER...TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
MANY MILES AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah...it was about time

I have to say i was wishing the "luck" we had would stay with us the whole season... oh well
Everyone watch Issac! Hes gonna b a trouble maker....
Wheres Washingtonian??? Whats her take on it?
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3778. GetReal


Looking like a current WSW track as it is consolidating into a tight core.
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nhc says center is at 15.1N look now. center looks to be reforming around 14.7N. HH will confirm the center once they go out.
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3776. LargoFl
just imagine..all our eye strain thats coming this week..eyes glued to this puter screen lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33465
FYI.

As of the 12UTC update (8AM EDT):

NHC had TD9 moving at 265, or 5 degrees south of due west at 17 knots

See for yourself here:



Model Initialization
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Quoting reedzone:


Wishes?? I'm not wishcasting this.. The pattern does NOT support a recurvature out to sea and if you've watched Levis videos.. Analogs and pattern simply bring this storm a bit more west of Irenes track.. This will most likely hit Florida. It's not a wishcast, just going by the pattern.
Didn't say squat about a recurve or landfall myself. Just commenting on the curious nature of your 5+ day 'forecast' zeroing in on the east coast, where you, probably not coincidentally, happen to live.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..OMG..if..it DOES take that track..this is doomsday coming for floridians..right up the middle OMG..plse turn away issac
That track is very scary to say the least!!!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
remember if TD 9 goes over hispaniola or eastern Cuba it will emerge very torn up HIstorically alot of systems have not survived passage of those islands


Gustav went over the narrow westernmost tip of Cuba, and even that knocked the stuffing out of it. Its eye wall collapsed.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Looks like the USA has ran out of luck


yeah...it was about time
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Quoting gugi182:
Go Home T.D your not welcome here in PR!!!!!! don't want you either in the mainland U.S.A. leave us alone
OMG!
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3769. TXCWC
My forecast for blog today - warp speed/meltdown mode :)
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3768. Grothar
Quoting scooster67:


Thnaks Gro, but I wound up all my hoses already. :)


Hey Scoost!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
Wow there still going to do another flight into 95L lol! Though the trough looks weaker and has stronger 850 mb vort!
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Can't forget about 96L... and it got the shrimp figure, which meant healthy storm in future.

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This is the SoFL storm we've been dodging for afew years now down here.
Could be a direct hit. And with the Straits of FL being so warm, hopefully Hispaniola weakens it before hitting that extreme warm water south of the Bahamas. If nothing gets in its way a cat. 2-3 might not be that far fetched.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Charley barely weakened when crossing Cuba. The key will be where in Cuba will TD 9 cross?

And could you imagine the consequences if it crosses Cuba stronger than Charley did...
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Looks like the USA has ran out of luck
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rant deleted
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3761. TXCWC
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category five out of TD9 in the medium range, that is how favorable its environment is out ahead of it, especially with SSTs near 82-85F and wind shear near 5 knots or lower as an Upper Level Anticyclone continues to build over our depression.


NO - not even most aggressive intensity models are showing anywhere near CAT 5. In fact - NHC may be too aggressive right now in their forecast strength right now - in my personal opinion.
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3760. Grothar
Quoting ncstorm:


Grothar, I will give you a cookie if you stop using that awful color map


Payback, nc. LOL At least it's not purple and pink.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
3759. icmoore
Quoting Grothar:



Hey, We all tried to move it last night, but people kept wishing it back. What could I do?


Dang wishcasters! :)
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3758. WxLogic
Quoting scooster67:
The 12Z will be most interesting today. Anyone know what time Recon is expected to investigate?


11:30AM ET
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Computer models are in fairly good agreement that TD 9 will be in the vicinity of the eastern gulf of mexico, florida and the bahamas , but an exact location at this time is premature, but all the indications looks to be South Florida to the western bahamas
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Quoting seminolesfan:
Its a good thing you live on the Florida east coast, huh? IMO, its a good thing wishes don't cause lowering heights or a bunch of people would be getting blowing rains...


Wishes?? I'm not wishcasting this.. The pattern does NOT support a recurvature out to sea and if you've watched Levis videos.. Analogs and pattern simply bring this storm a bit more west of Irenes track.. This will most likely hit Florida. It's not a wishcast, just going by the pattern.
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3755. GetReal
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3754. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33465
3752. Grothar
Quoting calkevin77:


Good one Grothar. That almost made me spit my coffee. Funniest thing I've heard this week.


LOL, Geoff was only kidding. There is at least 10 posts a day saying, "Its coming right over my house"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
Quoting thesweetlycool:


This looks like it is forecasting the "Strong" side of TD9 to be on the east and away from FL... that would be good.
Except for the islands just to the east of FL, for which it would be [ahem]... not so good.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting scooster67:
The 12Z will be most interesting today. Anyone know what time Recon is expected to investigate?


11am takeoff time

Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category five out of TD9 in the medium range, that is how favorable its environment is out ahead of it, especially with SSTs near 82-85F and wind shear near 5 knots or lower as an Upper Level Anticyclone continues to build over our depression.


hmm I can see that but for right now I put that below 10%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
"That's no moon....that's a space station."

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3748. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


We could be talking about FEET of rain if that happens. I said it yesterday "It looks like FAY back from 09". Melbourne received 26.50" from FAY.
yes for sure this will be a flooding event for florida which is already water logged huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33465
3747. ncstorm
Quoting Grothar:
This could slow down as it moves North. This is the GFS at 144 hours



this is the GFS at 156 hours




and at 168 hours




Grothar, I will give you a cookie if you stop using that awful color map
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Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
TD9 is showing me signs that the pattern is becoming extremely favorable for rapid intensification. Bursting convective pattern indicates that dry air should no longer be an issue, the convective outflow is developing as convection increases, the pure shape of the convection indicates its taking on the circulation's form and this tells me that its ready to blossom today. I think we see Issac by 11am EDT today, or at the very latest when the HH's fly into TD9 this afternoon. Very impressive circulation, and favorable environment = disaster.

And look at the size of the anticyclone riding over the top of it....
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3745. aquak9
Quoting scooster67:
The 12Z will be most interesting today. Anyone know what time Recon is expected to investigate?


Recon is outta the picture now.

They are firing up the SR-71 Blackbirds.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! the turn is what will determine either a eastern Gulf system or a storm riding up or near the east coast of FL.
And the turn is from the storm rolling through the weakness in the flow caused by the falling heights. Don't really get your point???
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Quoting Grothar:


LOL. It's OK, Geoff. It looks like it's actually over your neighbor's house.


Good one Grothar. That almost made me spit my coffee. Funniest thing I've heard this week.
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Ok so i guess its confirmed... Issac will impact the US... Hopefully Cuba weakens it substantually
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I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category five out of TD9 in the medium range, that is how favorable its environment is out ahead of it, especially with SSTs near 82-85F and wind shear near 5 knots or lower as an Upper Level Anticyclone continues to build over our depression.
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The 12Z will be most interesting today. Anyone know what time Recon is expected to investigate?
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Quoting TXCWC:


Not just Cane but STRONG CAT 2 at that. IF...IF that verifies then would pretty much guarantee a hurricane staus throughout Cuba passage.


Charley barely weakened when crossing Cuba. The key will be where in Cuba will TD 9 cross?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Grothar:


This looks like it is forecasting the "Strong" side of TD9 to be on the east and away from FL... that would be good.
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3736. TXCWC
Quoting myway:
Crown Weather Discussion has the Euro as the most likely path @ this point. Takes it up west coast of Florida to panhandle.


Would also be worst case scenario as less land interaction before a more than likely Florida arrival
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Quoting myway:
Crown Weather Discussion has the Euro as the most likely path @ this point. Takes it up west coast of Florida to panhandle.


ECMWF has it in the GOM in 240hrs, all the rest have it close or near Fla in about 126-144hrs.
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3734. yqt1001
Talk about deep convection.. O_o

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remember if TD 9 goes over hispaniola or eastern Cuba it will emerge very torn up HIstorically alot of systems have not survived passage of those islands
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Quoting Grothar:
This could slow down as it moves North. This is the GFS at 144 hours



this is the GFS at 156 hours




and at 168 hours




We could be talking about FEET of rain if that happens. I said it yesterday "It looks like FAY back from 09". Melbourne received 26.50" from FAY.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
3731. TXCWC
Quoting Chicklit:

Yeah, we knew it would.
Interesting that NHC has it going cane in the north Caribbean.


Not just Cane but STRONG CAT 2 at that. IF...IF that verifies then would pretty much guarantee a hurricane staus throughout Cuba passage.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.