Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
from last blog

right just want to put this out there

this was my forecast cone from late last night in colour




and this is mine now the cone has shifted abit N and has a more N track at the end of the run also extended for an extra 24 hours

(tracks on Jamaicas S coast and track NW between Grand Cayman and its sister islands then up into Cuba then towards Fl and turns back WNW towards NE GOM coast warning no colour



I don't have much confidence with this cone due to the fact that 94L is not offically TD9 yet I am waiting for advisory to come out and forecast cone given


I might suggest removing the NOAA/NWS/NHC logos from your images if they do not represent the official track guidance produced by the official NOAA forecasts. Even if they were from official products, I would still suggest caution in usage of official logos. This can lead to confusion and put you in a bad position.
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Hmmmm...I fly out on a long weekend trip this weekend. My flight home is from Dallas to Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday. Could get interesting. No worries yet though...still a ways out.


That GFS run looks to take it over FL reeeeeeeeal sloooooooow...unless I'm misreading it. Ugh.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Meanwhile, and closer to home, looks like NE-N Central Florida is going to the get the worst of the training effects from the trof lifting out; the heaviest rain has stayed off shore from the Panhandle and Big Bend but headed in that general direction. Some flooding on the horizon.
yes they have us at 70% the next couple of days..good rains coming once again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Going to be funny if 95L in the Gulf gets to TS strength and becomes Isaac before 94L...

Though clearly not nearly the threat that 94L is longer term.

Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
ok looking at RGB loop for 94L seem like it is relocating its LLCOC again to the SW near 15.2N 46.1W I'm waiting till 2pm or 3pm to confirm that I am not too sure yet
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
Quoting mcluvincane:
That's a very fine line with the gfs run, any shift west or east could easily make things a lot worse


Exactly. If it remained south of the big islands it could get exponentially stronger.
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274. Jax82
the natural sprinkler is turning on again.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be a serious flood maker for FL as a TS or Hurricane moves very slow up the FL Penisula.

..IF it does come up the coast..that storm will be just that..a huge rain maker, on top of all we have gotten already...again..this is all a BIG if..days and days away and if it slows down..might not be til next weekend or later?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice their ants acting funny? I just saw a flock of birds heading for Home Depot.
I had a bug in my house that I have never before seen this morning and my knee hurts.
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Meanwhile, and closer to home, looks like NE-N Central Florida is going to the get the worst of the training effects from the trof lifting out; the heaviest rain has stayed off shore from the Panhandle and Big Bend but headed in that general direction. Some flooding on the horizon.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8255
Quoting Bluestorm5:
And what's the strongest typhoon to landfall in Taiwan ever?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
And what's the strongest typhoon to landfall in Taiwan ever?


I think it was Herb in 1996 a category 4.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


let me guess levi told you so. GFS needs to be watch as it has been nailing these systems lately.



Not because levi or anyone said so...Because tropical systems do not like 2-5 thousand foot walls of terrain.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I would be surprised if the HH found anything significant circulation-wise with 95L today. Still needs more time to consolidate and separate from the trough.



Out for now.


I agree. That's why I asked if they were even going to investigate it.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


Was this at a disaster relief concert?


"InvestStock" I believe it was,.....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting StormTracker2K:


let me guess levi told you so. GFS needs to be watch as it has been nailing these systems lately.



no i havent heard anything from Levi since the last tropical tidbit two days ago....i dont really listen to him as much as you guys do.
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This would end the drought for C GA.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I would be surprised if the HH found anything significant circulation-wise with 95L today. Still needs more time to consolidate and separate from the trough.



Out for now.
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Quoting Patrap:


I did see a Flock Of Seagulls with Funny Hair and a 80's beat once though,

..I ran so far away..I couldn't get away..


Was this at a disaster relief concert?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


this particular track wont allow for a strong system, because it brings this over many islands, and then keeps it VERY close to Florida the rest of its life...but this likely will not be the track it will take, as there will be plenty of variation



Variation is a dangerous thing with this set up. Not wishing any harm on anyone, but it really looks like the US needs this thing to traverse those mountains.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I've been marking the position of 94L based on satellite fixes, lined it out, and this is what I got:



So,....can you imagine all those high-brow politicians stubbornly holding their convention...dressed in swimsuits due to all the rain? -- tiny speedos, lol. (hurts the mind, haha)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
from last blog

right just want to put this out there

this was my forecast cone from late last night in colour




and this is mine now the cone has shifted abit N and has a more N track at the end of the run also extended for an extra 24 hours

(tracks on Jamaicas S coast and track NW between Grand Cayman and its sister islands then up into Cuba then towards Fl and turns back WNW towards NE GOM coast warning no colour



I don't have much confidence with this cone due to the fact that 94L is not offically TD9 yet I am waiting for advisory to come out and forecast cone given
You wish, lol.
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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice their ants acting funny? I just saw a flock of birds heading for Home Depot.


I did see a Flock Of Seagulls with Funny Hair and a 80's beat once though,

..I ran so far away..I couldn't get away..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be a serious flood maker for FL as a TS or Hurricane moves very slow up the FL Penisula.



Bring it on. This would be number 3 for me this year.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be a serious flood maker for FL as a TS or Hurricane moves very slow up the FL Penisula.

Thats not all, if the storm tracks through the Florida Straits and starts to recurve in the S.E.Gulf of Mexico, it may intensify to a formidable hurricane, You can guess the rest.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


this particular track wont allow for a strong system, because it brings this over many islands, and then keeps it VERY close to Florida the rest of its life...but this likely will not be the track it will take, as there will be plenty of variation


let me guess levi told you so. GFS needs to be watch as it has been nailing these systems lately.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice their ants acting funny? I just saw a flock of birds heading for Home Depot.
for sure the ants around my house have been trying to go up my walls to the roof for days now..as always..watch nature for the signs
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
That's a very fine line with the gfs run, any shift west or east could easily make things a lot worse
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Quoting AllStar17:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.


Anybody know if this is still a go into 95L?


Well, things much be changing, as my local weather radio said it had only 10% chance of development this AM. I wonder how interesting it would get if if migrated a little NE to that hot-water spot in the W-central GOM.
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Quoting Grothar:


hey, Largo. Nice little chat we all had at 4 this morning. I enjoyed it.
..we were up early huh lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Anybody notice their ants acting funny? I just saw a flock of birds heading for Home Depot.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
e
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Quoting txwcc:
Taking a look and analyzing the symetrics here, it appears less and less likely now that 94L (assuming it develops) will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

The experts were noticing a few days ago that the long range models were showing signs of a more zonal pattern across the U.S. Th is indicates that troughs would be weak at best down the road.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a total evacuation of Tampa Bay area if this plays out. Notice that a piece of this trough breaks off and slides into the Gulf while ventilating 94L




Bite your tongue!!! Traffic is already going to be a nightmare. An evacuation of that area would have to begin well before we actually knew it was even close to us.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Am I correct in thinking Wunderground doesn't map anything lower than TS?

But not during class time, one hopes... lol


no it has blue for TD just like on the map you posted.
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This could be a serious flood maker for FL as a TS or Hurricane moves very slow up the FL Penisula.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting shawn26:
Uh Oh, I live in Ft. Myers.
days and days and days away..this will surely change
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very near Tampa at 180hrs


Folks this if FAY all over again. The GFS spitting out 20" plus inches from this set up.



this particular track wont allow for a strong system, because it brings this over many islands, and then keeps it VERY close to Florida the rest of its life...but this likely will not be the track it will take, as there will be plenty of variation
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The US has been so lucky the last couple of years. In 2008, although Gustav and Ike were bad, we dodged absolute catastophes as both storms were forecast to make landfall as Cat 4's and the both were Cat 2's at landfall. In 2010, Earl gave us shock, but it was never that big of a deal. In 2011, Irene was a bad storm, but it could of been so much worse, as that was yet another storm that weakened more than it should of, as it was forecasted to be a major at landfall and instead was a Cat 1 at landfall. And this year, we could of had a hurricane entering the gulf with Ernesto, and instead we had a storm get buried in the Yucatan because it took its time to get its act together. There have been other examples. Now, future Isaac could take a grand tour of the big islands, staying weak. It's as if these storms are trying to give us the best case scenario! (or at least for what could of happed). We have been very lucky lately, and we will run out of our luck at some point.
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So from what I understand from Dr. Masters blog- there is little chance of a storm hitting Central Texas? -I vividly remember TD Alex from june/july in 2010. We got days of pouring rain! A storm now would really help with the drought.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..would be funny tho..watching all those fat cats running lol..nah it wont happen..hurricanes dont come here, not this time of year


hey, Largo. Nice little chat we all had at 4 this morning. I enjoyed it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
Quoting UnobtrusiveTroll10:
Anyone have a quick-link showing historical storms with location similar to 94L? thx.
Am I correct in thinking Wunderground doesn't map anything lower than TS?

Quoting yqt1001:


Well smart phones these days can do quite a bit. :P
But not during class time, one hopes... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20684
Quoting AllStar17:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.


Anybody know if this is still a go into 95L?
..just want to note..its getting quite breezy here on the west coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting duranta:
Here's some more info on fracking for you:

Between 2005 and 2009, the oil and gas service companies used hydraulic fracturing products containing 29 chemicals that are known or possible human carcinogens, regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) for their risks to human health, or listed as hazardous air pollutants under the Clean Air Act.

· In Colorado, between 2005 and 2009, oil and gas companies conducting fracking across the state used over 1.5 million gallons of fluids containing known carcinogens. That puts Colorado second only to Texas in the highest volume use of fluids containing carcinogens in the nation.

· The BTEX compounds – benzene, toluene, xylene, and ethylbenzene – are SDWA contaminants and hazardous air pollutants. Benzene also is a known human carcinogen. The hydraulic fracturing companies injected 11.4 million gallons of products containing at least one BTEX chemical over the five-year period.

· The study found that between 2005 and 2009, companies operating in Colorado injected into the ground over 375,000 gallons of fracking fluids that contained chemicals required to be regulated under the SDWA. And the vast majority of those chemicals were the BTEX compounds – known carcinogens that can damage the central nervous system, liver, and kidneys.

· Methanol, which was used in 342 hydraulic fracturing products, was the most widely used chemical between 2005 and 2009. The substance is a hazardous air pollutant and is on the candidate list for potential regulation under SDWA. Isopropyl alcohol, 2-butoxyethanol, and ethylene glycol were the other most widely used chemicals.

· Many of the hydraulic fracturing fluids contain chemical components that are listed as “proprietary” or “trade secret.” The companies used 94 million gallons of 279 products that contained at least one chemical or component that the manufacturers deemed proprietary or a trade secret. In many instances, the oil and gas service companies were unable to identify these “proprietary” chemicals, suggesting that the companies are injecting fluids containing chemicals that they themselves cannot identify.


http://degette.house.gov/index.php?option=com_con tent&view=article&id=1069:degette-committe e-invest igation-discovers-high-volume-of-toxic-chemicals-i n-fracking-fluids-used-in-colorado&catid=76:pr ess- releases-&Itemid=227


There are problems already from many years back where groundwater has been left unpotable. I dislike corp. greed ruining the environment for others. Consider all our trash problems. Industry churns out cheap drinks, foods, etc. for their own profit...& all taxpayers are left to foot the bill for cleanup - collection, disposal. So, they pass along those costs of their products...to consumers & govt.
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LMAO

yo SJ, ain't that the truth, we seen this pathetic sputtering west...just like watching an Alien hatch.
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Very near Tampa at 180hrs


Folks this if FAY all over again. The GFS spitting out 20" plus inches from this set up.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
from last blog

right just want to put this out there

this was my forecast cone from late last night in colour




and this is mine now the cone has shifted abit N and has a more N track at the end of the run also extended for an extra 24 hours

(tracks on Jamaicas S coast and track NW between Grand Cayman and its sister islands then up into Cuba then towards Fl and turns back WNW towards NE GOM coast warning no colour



I don't have much confidence with this cone due to the fact that 94L is not offically TD9 yet I am waiting for advisory to come out and forecast cone given
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.