Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting floridaboy14:
just curious Levi, once 94L gets north of the islands will it have better conditions than irene did?


Should the question been phrased if 94L gets north of the islands?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:



A track that's not even close to what the GFS and the Euro are saying. Talk about going out on a limb. I gues he is using the GFS ensemble members which are performing terribly.



I aint saying nothing about track because I dont know..Im just sitting here eating popcorn..but right now I will say Levi hasnt been wrong yet with this storm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
IS everyone Ready?
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
The 2pm is out on the lovely site known as wunderground ;)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ABNT20.html


Prolly an FTP source...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22319
Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm gonna laugh if 94L stays weak and keeps on chugging westbound thru the Caribbean like all the others have.


I agree Rita this goes into the Gulf. No way this gets that strong as it is really struggling right now.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651


Cat 4..from the ships model
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
The 48 hr. shear forcast shows increased shear over the D.R..Is there a 72 or 96 map available?
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Quoting Patrap:
NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks

Plug in your zip code and a radius, and see all the storms that have passed through your area.

Thanx Emmy,...
Good Afternoon all. Thanks for the link Patrap. I typed in Key West, Fla. and boy the colors of the rainbow. Plus I could not tell how close they came since all the storms obliterated the Keys. LOL You should try it to see. Miami isn't any better.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting bigwes6844:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

..TY for posting it
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yes it is


no it is not on the NHC site

but yes it is on Wunderground you need to show where you got it from that is to stop people from telling you what I said ok
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Quoting ncstorm:
I sure dont like your middle of the cone Levi..




A track that's not even close to what the GFS and the Euro are saying. Talk about going out on a limb. I gues he is using the GFS ensemble members which are performing terribly.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
It on the NHC NOW It's in the tex
Quoting Waltanater:
...or maybe they were asleep at the wheel and just woke up...nothing to report. LOL
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OK guys, the Two is out go look
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
Quoting LargoFl:
..it could happen


That seems to be an increasingly common thread this season...
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC..has trended west-180 hours


I dont like the look of that!!and wow 1 80% and 2 30%
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If a major, minor storm was going to possibly, maybe, perhaps effect a Blues Festival somewhere I would care. But a Party Convention?...pfft!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm gonna laugh if 94L stays weak and keeps on chugging westbound thru the Caribbean like all the others have.
..it could happen
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Quoting FLASPOTTER:
No news from NHC site could mean a long discussion that may not sound good.
...or maybe they were asleep at the wheel and just woke up...nothing to report. LOL
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WOW Cat 3 going up to cat 4

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Quoting BahaHurican:

Did u post it?

May force some pple to work together, instead of against each other.

Well, I'd expect they'd also left...

Well, well... look who the storm drug in... lol

howareya?



GREAT Baha, how are you? I saw the tropics heatin' up and had to update my site and check WU! I was sort of dozing off there for a bit (tropically speaking of course)!
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I'm gonna laugh if 94L stays weak and keeps on chugging westbound thru the Caribbean like all the others have.
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the TWO from Wunderground is interesting

80% for 94L but stronger words
30% for 95L HH enroute
30% for 96L upped to orange
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


dude take that off the TWO not out yet



Yes it is
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Quoting ncstorm:
I sure dont like your middle of the cone Levi..



Oh god not again!
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No news from NHC site could mean a long discussion that may not sound good.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L up to 30%.
..hmmm the next one to watch
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12z CMC..has trended west-180 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Sometimes this blog could use Bill Cosby...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





I got one of those!


You wish.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
Quoting trey33:
Lots & lots of very nice coporate tents going up in downtown Tampa. Wonder what their wind ratings are?
LOL I thought the same thing too, if this thing DOES track up the west coast..just Imagine how fast they have to take everything down..not an easy job for sure..lotta grumbling will be heard lol
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Quoting Levi32:
Apparently the Google Earth recon app has a different source for data than the NHC website, since it has continued to update, but the NHC data set has not.
just curious Levi, once 94L gets north of the islands will it have better conditions than irene did?
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Quoting gprxomstr:

Well, no DOOM runs to Houston on the 12Z GFS at least. That's for sure!


While I do not want a big storm.. I would like some rain :o)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


dude take that off the TWO not out yet


TWO is out, 94L is at 80% the other two are at 30%, it hasn't updated on the NHC site for some reason though. See post 528.
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96L up to 30%.
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Quoting StormJunkie:

Hey, no problem disagreeing with me; hell, I disagree with myself lol.  Yesterday I was pretty set on that exact scenario based on what this season has shown so far, and what many of the models were pointing at.  That said, this system has a lot more latitude than any of its predecessors did and it is a very large envelope. 



I just think that 94L is going to continue to struggle, and the first chance it will have tocome together will be the NW carib.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Hey junky, good to see ya. My biggest fear right now is that this thing does not take the exact path the GFS shows. If it is even a hair further N and misses the mountains...


Great to see you too man! Glad you're still kicking. I hear you but although the GFS is usually reliable it's WAY too far out to know anything. It'll just be a wait and see - Chasecon 4 for now...
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Eid Mubarak, to all.

Hot, dry, but humid here today.
94L still lurking out there, waiting for things to change?
I don't expect too much to happen for another 24 hrs.
If it remains weak, I expect it will continue generally west at least another day or so.
Fortunately, there is not a lot of convection with it. Yet.....
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Dry air is still king out there right now. 94L just can't get any convection going.

94L is headed for the 50W line in the next 12 hrs or so... I think an upgrade to TD is much more likely after that point. I still think sufficient organization can take place for it to cross the Lessers as a TS... but we shall see.

Quoting gprxomstr:
Post #456....This thing is really moving...

Geez... it looks like a steam engine... it puffs up a cloud... it floats off to the W.... it puffs up another cloud...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22319
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Quoting GetReal:



I hate to disagree with you on this system SJ... All the parmeters (environment, steering, weak system) points toward a relatively weak TS on the Caribbean Cruise.
Hey, no problem disagreeing with me; hell, I disagree with myself lol.  Yesterday I was pretty set on that exact scenario based on what this season has shown so far, and what many of the models were pointing at.  That said, this system has a lot more latitude than any of its predecessors did and it is a very large envelope. 
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


dude take that off the TWO not out yet

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It has to strengthen and find a weakness to turn into to, but crossing over the islands like you said, is the wildcard in a forecast like this. Do you see anyway besides it dying over the mountains of Haiti that this misses the US and recurves out to sea?


Very unlikely this recurves out to sea. 94L could run into Cuba and or Haiti fall apart some then restrengthen north of Cuba as it moves NW into S FL. The reason for this is because a piece of this trough that is expected to deluge FL this week for forecast to break off and slide SW into the Gulf while ventilating 94L and sending it NW up the FL Penisula.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Lots & lots of very nice corporate tents going up in downtown Tampa. Wonder what their wind ratings are?
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For 94L just add water (err…thunderstorms) and voila, you have a TD!
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Good afternoon everyone. Just thought I would pop in to see what 94 and 95 are doing.
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...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH A
VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL HELP GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN
ACROSS OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLZ039-042-043-048-212000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0006.120820T1400Z-120822T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CITRUS...HERNANDO...LEVY AND SUMTER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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