Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting waveRoller:
This is the SoFL storm we've been dodging for afew years now down here.
Could be a direct hit. And with the Straits of FL being so warm, hopefully Hispaniola weakens it before hitting that extreme warm water south of the Bahamas. If nothing gets in its way a cat. 2-3 might not be that far fetched.
Sure looks that way right now from what Grothar posted on GFS scenario. Though maybe it is hanging out in the Straits because east Cuba cut it up. Either way, and stating the obvious, we have a potentially very serious situation out there, particularly for Haiti. And a whole lot of other places, too. boy oh boy. Does look like the real deal at this point, doesn't it.
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3830. LargoFl
ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
*GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 53.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.7N 57.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Isaac's Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History



September 8, 1900, began innocently in the seaside town of Galveston, Texas. Even Isaac Cline, resident meteorologist for the U.S. Weather Bureau failed to grasp the true meaning of the strange deep-sea swells and peculiar winds that greeted the city that morning. Mere hours later, Galveston found itself submerged in a monster hurricane that completely destroyed the town and killed over six thousand people in what remains the greatest natural disaster in American history--and Isaac Cline found himself the victim of a devestating personal tragedy.

Using Cline's own telegrams, letters, and reports, the testimony of scores of survivors, and our latest understanding of the science of hurricanes, Erik Larson builds a chronicle of one man's heroic struggle and fatal miscalculation in the face of a storm of unimaginable magnitude. Riveting, powerful, and unbearably suspenseful, Isaac's Storm is the story of what can happen when human arrogance meets the great uncontrollable force of nature
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Quoting Abacosurf:
Also evidence of NE shear. Center looks almost exposed.

Decreasing though...
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3827. Chiggy
00z Euro - cool graphics
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Also want to send a shout out to RandyB, our HHer of note, who I know won't have time to check in here, but who I want to commend and present with best wishes for safe travels, happy landings, and excellent opportunities for photography...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
3825. LargoFl
Quoting icmoore:


I'm afraid it is already happening LOL. I think a walk to the beach is needed to get me away from it for a while. You people are simply irristable :)
LOL do the walk early
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Quoting Patrap:

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #9

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



Bingo, even the GFDL and HWRF switched eastward.. Makes sense for a stronger storm to feel the weakness more and move to the right.
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3756. reedzone 1:30 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting seminolesfan:
Its a good thing you live on the Florida east coast, huh? IMO, its a good thing wishes don't cause lowering heights or a bunch of people would be getting blowing rains...

Wishes?? I'm not wishcasting this.. The pattern does NOT support a recurvature out to sea and if you've watched Levis videos.. Analogs and pattern simply bring this storm a bit more west of Irenes track.. This will most likely hit Florida. It's not a wishcast, just going by the pattern.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 6977


you reedzone with those perfect storms
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Quoting floridaboy14:
td 9 is not moving WSW. its moving DUE WEST. the center could be relocating further south. i know most models have it turning NW over cuba/hispanola but if it stays weak now like the euro shows, i expect a cone shift further south.


dude its moving between S of due W and WSW

and yes the LLCOC seem to be relocating further S

I say it won't really stay weak and the Cone will shift S and W

Quoting GetReal:


Watch out Barbados, IMO this is going to get closer to the island than expected.




yep
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
3820. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
just imagine..all our eye strain thats coming this week..eyes glued to this puter screen lol


I'm afraid it is already happening LOL. I think a walk to the beach is needed to get me away from it for a while. You people are simply irristable :)
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3819. VR46L
TD 9 Seems to be getting all dressed up,



and in close up



think he will be Isaac shortly but not this one...


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3818. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

dry air still affecting the storm...not so pretty looking as some hours ago...
Also evidence of NE shear. Center looks almost exposed.
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Quoting E46Pilot:


If it gets over Hispaniola it will.
It may become disrupted, but it definitely will not fall apart. Look at mimic imagery to gauge just how much momentum this storm has to it.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

11am=about 2-3 hours from now
thanks
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7447
Quoting GetReal:


Watch out Barbados, IMO this is going to get closer to the island than expected.


Barbadians been eying this thing since it got a number.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
3813. snotly
Let the craziness begin....

For example don't be surprised to see this

This is the storm of doom that has been prophesied for all time where fire will rain from the sky and cats and dogs will enter unto marriage.

The Hype DEFCON has just been lowered.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Morning everyone,

Is there any reason why this storm will do better in the eastern caribbean than the last few we've had go through that region? Conditions seem much more favorable, but will trade winds and a quick forward speed not slow this one down as they have previous systems? If so, is that simply because of its structure being better going into the caribbean, because of better conditions in the region, or a combination of both?


It's more charismatic than the others. Plus, it has a convention to attend. Ernesto and Helene were only doing it for the margaritas.
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3811. LargoFl
....................ok here so far this morning, suns out with some clouds, just a normal morning so far
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
From the current motion it seems like St. Lucia and Martinique are most likely to see the center of this storm
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Expect strong to severe storms across N and C FL later today as there is a nasty complex of storms in the Gulf that are producing thousands of lightning strikes.




Something we don't see unless it's fall, winter, or spring... We may get a watch here later.
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This could be an East Gulf storm riding up Florida's west side offshore, with one lone tornado hitting the convention center in Tampa causing widespread panic.




Sarcasm Flag: ON
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Quoting LargoFl:
fall apart,fall apart


If it gets over Hispaniola it will.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
What time does the recon plane takes off?

11am=about 2-3 hours from now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Even before this thing makes it to CONUS in some way, shape, or form, if the NHC forecast verifies, looks like Haiti is going to get strafed pretty badly... again. Those folks never catch a break.
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3803. GetReal


Watch out Barbados, IMO this is going to get closer to the island than expected.


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td 9 is not moving WSW. its moving DUE WEST. the center could be relocating further south. i know most models have it turning NW over cuba/hispanola but if it stays weak now like the euro shows, i expect a cone shift further south.
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3800. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

dry air still affecting the storm...not so pretty looking as some hours ago...
fall apart,fall apart
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Whether or not TD 9 is moving south of west or not right now is pretty much irrelevant. When this thing strengthens, it will move north.
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Morning....back reading before work. Is the degree of organization of the system one of the factors in how much the system is pulled or steered by the atmos weakness? Also how about the forward speed? The timing of how it all comes together or doesn't. Just seeing over time the system moving in a more westerly direction than originally forcasted.
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Morning everyone,

Is there any reason why this storm will do better in the eastern caribbean than the last few we've had go through that region? Conditions seem much more favorable, but will trade winds and a quick forward speed not slow development as they have previous systems? If so, is that simply because of its structure being better going into the caribbean, because of better conditions in the region, or a combination of both?
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3796. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #9

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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3795. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230

dry air still affecting the storm...not so pretty looking as some hours ago...
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Quoting osuwxguynew:
FYI.

As of the 12UTC update (8AM EDT):

NHC had TD9 moving at 265, or 5 degrees south of due west at 17 knots

See for yourself here:



Model Initialization


thank you as I said S of due W-WSW

Quoting floridaboy14:
nhc says center is at 15.1N look now. center looks to be reforming around 14.7N. HH will confirm the center once they go out.


yep sure does

Quoting GetReal:


Looking like a current WSW track as it is consolidating into a tight core.


as I said S of due W-WSW

so altogether this means cone will shift S and W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Yes, I know there is a lot of activity in the tropics today but the real question for this blog will be, who gets plussed, who gets minussed and who will be nonplussed by plusses and minusses? Who are the front runners and who are the rank outsiders? You decide!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
3791. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Expect strong to severe storms across N and C FL later today as there is a nasty complex of storms in the Gulf that are producing thousands of lightning strikes.


yes they have been warning us here it coming today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Quoting RitaEvac:
The song is playing, and it's an omen.

"Here I am......Rock me like a Hurricane...

Ironically, the same thing run thru my head this morning.
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What time does the recon plane takes off?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7447
IF TD9 misses the trough/weakness does not pull it far enough north. This will be a west to mid Mississippi storm. And a big one at that.
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Expect strong to severe storms across N and C FL later today as there is a nasty complex of storms in the Gulf that are producing thousands of lightning strikes.


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Whenever the forecast models show a FL hit this early, it always misses us.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Looks like the USA has ran out of luck


You could only go so long without a hit.
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3784. Grothar
I really think you should all look at this link. The guy has been doing this for years. He is very good.
This just came out

Link

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For clarification purposes.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
The song is playing, and it's an omen.

"Here I am......Rock me like a Hurricane...
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Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category five out of TD9 in the medium range, that is how favorable its environment is out ahead of it, especially with SSTs near 82-85F and wind shear near 5 knots or lower as an Upper Level Anticyclone continues to build over our depression.


Don't forget this... OHC
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.