Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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1231. SLU
Quoting WxGeekVA:


le wild 6 hour old ASCAT appears! Elongated, but a 40kt wind barb and a handful of 30kts. Better organized now too IMO.


thats from last night and these winds were located near the blob SW of 94L last night.
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He's back

Roger Clemens signs with Sugar Land Skeeters
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Hello Miami, would you mind showing the last frame of the ukmet. I am not able to view it as I am on an iPad and have no flash :(
TIA
LOL, I'm on an iPad too.

This should work though: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zu kmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif
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A
B
C
D
E lol
Quoting gugi182:
What do you think.

A) Will 94L reach Tropical Depression status tonight.
B) Will 94L become Tropical Storm Issac before 11:59pm.
C) Will 94L still be an Invest before 11:59pm
D) Will 94L become a Tropical Storm tomorrow
E) None of the above.
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94L needs to take advantage of the monsoon trof to its south to be able to really modify the dry air that is entrained in it in order to develop any sort of impressive convection.

RAMMB/CIRA Experimental cloud temps (which I am not allowed to post) from around 20z showed there was a rather strong area of stable air just to the west of the circulation, which might be able to work into the large cyclonic envelope at some point during the next 12 hours.

This absolutely needs a productive diurnal phase to be anything more than a minimal tropical storm when it reaches the islands.

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1225. gugi182
What do you think.

A) Will 94L reach Tropical Depression status tonight.
B) Will 94L become Tropical Storm Issac before 11:59pm.
C) Will 94L still be an Invest before 11:59pm
D) Will 94L become a Tropical Storm tomorrow
E) None of the above.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Definitely getting that "look" this afternoon. Convection appearing over the center. Smart system. Dry north so lets get much bigger and pull in moisture from the south.
You're anthrpomorphizing too much here. It's a bunch of clouds...no brain.
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1223. divdog
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
our local mets here in miami just said as of 5:20 pm that 94l will stay well well south of florida and 96 should stay out in the atlantic away from florida
Your met has crystal balls
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1222. Patrap
Quoting tropicfreak:


Once it moves further away from land I do believe it will begin to get better organized, as land interaction has been impeding 95L and it's precursor(sorta) Helene.


Will be watching dat too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has reached 48W. That is the beginning of the sweet spot.
Remember, this is a family show ...
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

How no winds to S?
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Tropical Storm Fay
August 18-23, 2008
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1216. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:




You always have a good one. em!
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Quoting Patrap:
30% for 95L is warranted for the circ in the Gulf,Due East of Brownsville.





Once it moves further away from land I do believe it will begin to get better organized, as land interaction has been impeding 95L and it's precursor(sorta) Helene.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1214. Dakster
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, so they made a Special TWO to change nothing? Make sense...


Appears that way. It got your attention though.
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This means the low is farther up the coast and farther out into the Gulf than expected

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Have a Safe and Quiet Evening and see Yall in the am. The large circulation on 94L should remain very evident on the vis loops in the am........Have to see if it can build some meat on the bones going into tomorrow as well.
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1211. Patrap
Also with 95L on that Viz, note the low level "streamers" below the System flowing inward to the circ.

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1210. Grothar
Quoting sar2401:


Wouldn't matter, since so many people here just make up their own models anyway. :)


That deserves a lol.
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Not sure why the NHC updated it to say nothing has changed.
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Quoting Progster:


I'm not quite sure what elevations correspond to the enhancement in the IR part of the RGB imagery. I suspect in the yellows are low plus low-mid and the white is high-mid and high.


Thanks
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le wild 6 hour old ASCAT appears! Elongated, but a 40kt wind barb and a handful of 30kts. Better organized now too IMO.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
00
ABNT20 KNHC 202119
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
520 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Oh, so they made a Special TWO to change nothing? Make sense...
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1205. Grothar
Quoting jascott1967:


And then you die and get minused.

A man dies ...
only a few circles in the water prove that he was ever there.
And even they quickly disappear.
And when they're gone, he's forgotten, without a trace, as if he'd never even existed.
And that's all


Thanks, you just made my day.
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1204. Patrap
30% for 95L is warranted for the circ in the Gulf,Due East of Brownsville.



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Quoting Levi32:


It insists that 94L will manage to lift north of PR and Hispaniola, which would not be good news for those farther west.

I think the UKMET has had the best handle on the intensity of 94L from the beginning out of all the models, and since intensity is the largest factor in determining 94L's future track, it will be interesting to see how the UKMET does on track as well.

Oh come on, we just went through this a year ago. Exactly. Lol.
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Busy...
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1200. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202119
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
520 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Looking at the Total Precip. imagery, I think we can all echo Dr. Master's observations. Something potentially big is afoot here.





According to this it is moist...we all know that is not the case...
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Quoting want2lrn:


Ok, in this graphic, i believe that i see a spin underneath the (low level?, yellowish color)but nothing in the whiter looking clouds (mid level?).....


I'm not quite sure what elevations correspond to the enhancement in the IR part of the RGB imagery. I suspect in the yellows are low plus low-mid and the white is high-mid and high.
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1197. CJ5
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Looking at the Total Precip. imagery, I think we can all echo Dr. Master's observations. Something potentially big is afoot here.






according to that image, 94 seems to be pushing a pretty big wave in from of it. That should help with the dry air a bit.
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1196. Max1023
If the convection near the center of 94L persists we could have a T.D as early as 11pm - more likely 5am. There is obviously a well defined, closed circulation as seen on visible loops with a good deal of banding on the periphery of the circulation. Many large systems are like this in the development stage, with relatively little central convection while producing a large area of organized thunderstorms well away from the circulation.
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Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
96 heads out to sea and 94l heads towards yukitan then southern mexico when its all done caculating


Ok... first off... please give me scientific evidence that would show it going into Mexico. Second, why are you already declaring 96L a fishy when we don't even know what it will do beyond the longitude of the Leewards?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
00
ABNT20 KNHC 202119
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
520 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It isn't often that this is said, but I believe that the UKMET has the absolute best handle on 94L for the time being.


Hello Miami, would you mind showing the last frame of the ukmet. I am not able to view it as I am on an iPad and have no flash :(
TIA
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1192. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:
For us ancient ones.

Phyllis Diller has passed away.



God bless her soul. She was hoot!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Not surprised. My thinking has been the Northern Islands, PR, through the SE Bahamas and up to the Carolinas.

Eh, one of the many shifts we will see between now and the weekend, doesn't mean much.
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1190. CJ5
As the old saying goes, a rolling stone gather no moss. I believe 94l counters that. It seems to be gathering a large amount of "moss".
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Quoting jascott1967:


Gro had mentioned he got less attention when the blog thought he was dead than Levi is getting today. This was the only quote I could think of that had death and water in it. It's the best I could muster up with such short notice.

But I'm bald and I have a sunburn on my head so yes, I am a bit of a ray of sunshine...or I'm a giant walking orange.


Oh...well...if it was about Grothar...that changes everything....he deserves whatever we throw at him....
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oduct: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 21:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 20:55Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.1N 97.0W
Location: 65 miles (104 km) to the SSE (152°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 30° at 14 knots (From the NNE at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1012 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 4 knots (~ 4.6mph)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Progster:
The last couple of images from the 95L floater in RGB show a circulation in the Low/mid cloud near Patrap's radar blob "futher east". Tiny ACE tho..

Link


Ok, in this graphic, i believe that i see a spin underneath the (low level?, yellowish color)but nothing in the whiter looking clouds (mid level?).....
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Quoting presslord:


Well, well....Aren't you just a little ray of sunshine?!


Gro had mentioned he got less attention when the blog thought he was dead than Levi is getting today. This was the only quote I could think of that had death and water in it. It's the best I could muster up with such short notice.

But I'm bald and I have a sunburn on my head so yes, I am a bit of a ray of sunshine...or I'm a giant walking orange.
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1183. Patrap
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Go away 94L
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes

with a little WSW movement


Thanks. Getting ready for what is to come our way.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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