Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What is all the hype about with this supposed "sweet spot" at 50W? I've heard that about 100 times today... I don't think much will change when it crosses there.


That's exactly my thinking as well.

50W is magical.
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1530. LargoFl
Quoting FutureWx6221:


I have to wholeheartedly disagree. Any system with a closed LLC deserves a red circle.
ok maybe 50%, i think they jumped the gun some, should have waited a day or so more, there's more wind at my house right now than its got, BUT..i hear what your saying..we'll see
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LATEST UPDATE ON 94L...significant northward shift now bringing the storm through the major Caribbean Islands...

Gordon is out of the picture since it's post-tropical...

Note: Wind intensity could be more or less 5 mph... it obviously can't be accurate


94L Summary:

Some latest runs take 94L a little northward taking the storm over the Leeward Islands, near PR and Hispaniola or very close to. Just like with Irene (It really didn't happened though) if the storm goes through the high mountains of the island, the storm could die or significantly weaken depending on its intensity and movement, now the storm is moving at a pretty fast pace but it's expected to slow down within the next days.... the passage over this area is critical because it determines what can the storm do after.

If Isaac does not weaken as much it could re-intensify faster since it's better organized and move now towards the north and completely miss the GOM...meaning heading towards the US East coast in response to the big through over Canada at the time...doubt that it could just make a sharp turn out to sea w/o any impact on the coast...

OR If Isaac weakens considerably it would take more time to organize and intensify here 95L could pull it towards the Gulf and eventually threaten the people living in the gulf states. Tamaulipas, Mexico is also included in the threat..

FOR NOW a more likely scenario is that the storm could directly make an impact on Florida as a Cat 1-2 hurricane...

IT ALL DEPENDS HOW STRONG THE STORM LEAVES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IF IT CROSSES THROUGH.
A southern/northern track could mane Isaac a dangerous hurricane for either MX/GOM and US East coast

Here is my graphic,


iI'll take any comments from anyone interested

for larger pic... Link
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Actually 94L will probably be bumped to 90% at 8pm.

I agree.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You really think percentages are going to go bad? I highly, HIGHLY disagree. 94L's circulation has continued to become better defined and it is going to pass the 50W sweet spot tonight.

What is all the hype about with this supposed "sweet spot" at 50W? I've heard that about 100 times today... I don't think much will change when it crosses there.

Quoting washingtonian115:
No your right.A matter of fact I think 94L should have been put down to 40% a while ago.the only reason the NHC is keeping it at red is because it could develop down the road and cause problems for people.

That's exactly my thinking as well.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I wouldn't enjoy it, but I'd smile if kidcayman's south of JA and through the channel forecast verifies.... lol

Don't forget the "sweet spot" of the season in the triangle between Cuba, The Bahamas and FL... I'll bet TCHP is better there than just about anywhere else in the Bahamas....


Baha -- I don't like that sweet spot, unless you plan on dragging it out to sea.

Very unscientific but: I think what many people are seeing is a pattern setting up in the models, that "could" lead to a FL/gulf coast storm. Although the models are certainly not set in stone, they do perform better than even 3 years ago.

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Quoting LargoFl:
There is nothing there but a few clouds with a lil spin..LOOK at it...should be around 30-40% NOT 80%..not yet anyway.............


largo fl the system meets a number of requirements suitable for development and please don't ask me about the requiremnts, ask the dr lol
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Amen to that!!


The water temps in the GOM are the highest on record. It scares me that all that food is sitting out there just waiting for a storm to come in and feed on it.
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1523. LargoFl
Quoting NEWilmNCTP:
I am leaving for Mobile AL on Sat for work for a week. I live near Wilmington NC. Can anyone give me a timeframe on 94l? I have to leave family here and am nervous. Just trying to get an idea of where it could be. Thanks to all in advance.
Just a guess mind you but for florida OR north carolina, a week, maybe more if it does go up the east coast..depends..your probably safe at least for 5 days, my guess is it will slow down..maybe even stop at some point, figuring out which way to go, and its at that poing it may get bigger and stronger..if it doesnt slow down..im not worried about this one..no time build up..just my guess
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Quoting sdswwwe:


Amen and good analogy

I probably could slipped a few more cliches in there :)
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Actually 94L will probably be bumped to 90% at 8pm.
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Quoting LargoFl:
There is nothing there but a few clouds with a lil spin..LOOK at it...should be around 30-40% NOT 80%..not yet anyway.............


I have to wholeheartedly disagree. Any system with a closed LLC deserves a red circle.
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1507 they were probably on your roof looking west out into the gulf and said holy crap let's get indoors.
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Quoting LargoFl:
could be yes, my eyes are more focused on 96 behind it, that one looks promising

Could be a scenario like Frances/Ivan of 2004. Frances plowed the way, and Ivan fed off the moisture it left in its wake, and then exploded once it hit the Caribbean.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Convection has waned some again, DMIN may have something to do with that but dry air is probably more to blame.



I really think the NHC should go down to 70% at 8PM, at least to acknowledge that this thing is not organizing as fast as expected... It's been code red for a long time now, longer than most code reds... Obviously they've been too aggressive. The thing is I don't think its chances to develop have come down, they were just put too high in the first place. Go ahead and bash me now :)
No your right.A matter of fact I think 94L should have been put down to 40% a while ago.the only reason the NHC is keeping it at red is because it could develop down the road and cause problems for people.
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I'll take alot of heat for this comment..but that's ok....IMO I think 95L will be named before 94L...Look at the spin off the Texas coast...It's trying it's hardest to "get going"!!!
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Quoting sdswwwe:


Amen and good analogy

totally agree!
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1513. HarryMc
Quoting weathermancer:
Atlantic waking up!
... so am I
more coffee


Just bought our first K Cup coffee thing. Kureg Platinum. Nice having a cup of coffee even at late afternoon like this without having to worry about making a pot. Expensive though.

As far as waking up... Atlantic still needs a little time for energy to build up. I'm still saying Mid September before 'the big one' this year.
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1512. bappit
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Convection has waned some again, DMIN may have something to do with that but dry air is probably more to blame.



I really think the NHC should go down to 70% at 8PM, at least to acknowledge that this thing is not organizing as fast as expected... It's been code red for a long time now, longer than most code reds... Obviously they've been too aggressive. The thing is I don't think its chances to develop have come down, they were just put too high in the first place. Go ahead and bash me now :)

I agree with you. That's probably not a good thing.
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Yes if you pull up the SST's on loop of the gulf of Mexico not good.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Convection has waned some again, DMIN may have something to do with that but dry air is probably more to blame.



I really think the NHC should go down to 70% at 8PM, at least to acknowledge that this thing is not organizing as fast as expected... It's been code red for a long time now, longer than most code reds... Obviously they've been too aggressive. The thing is I don't think its chances to develop have come down, they were just put too high in the first place. Go ahead and bash me now :)

You really think percentages are going to go bad? I highly, HIGHLY disagree. 94L's circulation has continued to become better defined and it is going to pass the 50W sweet spot tonight.
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Quoting flwxboy:
Ocean Heat Content very high in NW Caribbean. Lets hope 94L doesn't tap into that energy.


Amen to that!!
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Nice early morning shot of Tembin:

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Ants are coming into my home in North Tampa. Not the stinging kind, just the little black ones.

My forecast track has 94L coming directly over my home.....Go figure

2% chance of a storm for the RNC looking a little better than that right now
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Quoting LargoFl:
There is nothing there but a few clouds with a lil spin..LOOK at it...should be around 30-40% NOT 80%..not yet anyway.............


Its too large.. needs to try to tightn up a bit
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm actual LLCOC clearly seen on RGB and located at 15.3N 47.7W moving WSW-S of due W

AL, 94, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 156N, 467W, 30, 1009, DB

ATCF is off by -0.3N +1.0W

also ATCF increased speed and lowered pressure

AL, 94, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 156N, 467W, 30, 1009, DB


my bad YOU ARE THE BIGGEST SOUTHCASTER EVER!
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1504. sdswwwe
Quoting redwagon:

I'm not sure why people are even bothering with models right now. It looks like 94L is accumulating energy that will change his structure to HUGE, and until it's one consolidated ball of wax the models are like watercooler gossip.


Amen and good analogy
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first forecast track map for 94L can be seen below. And before anybody even says a word, this forecast is not based off of my location. If I wanted to show a storm headed for my location, I would have it forecast it with every other storm.



That's a reasonable forecast and it could very well take that path, right now it's wait and see though!
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1502. flwxboy
Ocean Heat Content very high in NW Caribbean. Lets hope 94L doesn't tap into that energy.
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Miss Cleo loved traveling US1.
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Convection has waned some again, DMIN may have something to do with that but dry air is probably more to blame.



I really think the NHC should go down to 70% at 8PM, at least to acknowledge that this thing is not organizing as fast as expected... It's been code red for a long time now, longer than most code reds... Obviously they've been too aggressive. The thing is I don't think its chances to develop have come down, they were just put too high in the first place. Go ahead and bash me now :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But why is a recurvature even set in stone? You have the 18z GFS running right now that's, believe it or not, southwest of the 12z position juxtaposed against the same time frame in the last run. 94L will probably be able to gain enough westerly longitude, before it start to feel the affects of a weakness.

Ironic how both of our tracks have the cyclone affecting us though...must be a sub-conscious thing. ;)
I wouldn't enjoy it, but I'd smile if kidcayman's south of JA and through the channel forecast verifies.... lol

Quoting washingtonian115:
"Sst are high in the Bahamas along with TCHP".
Don't forget the "sweet spot" of the season in the triangle between Cuba, The Bahamas and FL... I'll bet TCHP is better there than just about anywhere else in the Bahamas....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22143
I am leaving for Mobile AL on Sat for work for a week. I live near Wilmington NC. Can anyone give me a timeframe on 94l? I have to leave family here and am nervous. Just trying to get an idea of where it could be. Thanks to all in advance.
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Atlantic waking up!
... so am I
more coffee
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Let 96L be Isaac if 94L won't.
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The latest gfs run kinda reminds me of Charlie, it was a cat 2 and strengthened to a cat 5 in a matter of hours near the coastline of punta gorda
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1492. LargoFl
Quoting thunderbug91:

I don't know Largo, I'm not certain it's GOING to happen, given it hasn't developed, and its still 8 days away, but it's a system to watch very closely. It's been 8 years since FL got nailed by a big 'un and this could be it.
could be yes, my eyes are more focused on 96 behind it, that one looks promising
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why are statistical models said to be better than dynamical models?

I'm not sure why people are even bothering with models right now. It looks like 94L is accumulating energy that will change his structure to HUGE, and until it's one consolidated ball of wax the models are like watercooler gossip.
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Quoting JLPR2:
I must say 96L is not getting enough love. :P
I expect its chances to increase at 8pm, 94L might stay at 80%, but it has a chance at getting upped to 90%, 95L should stay at 30%. IMO

96L looking good.
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1489. LargoFl
There is nothing there but a few clouds with a lil spin..LOOK at it...should be around 30-40% NOT 80%..not yet anyway.............
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL not gonna happen,shields are polished and up, this storm goes elsewhere, besides that, on sat image it doesnt look like anything but a lil spin, we got more rain and wind sitting in the gulf right now then that storm has

I don't know Largo, I'm not certain it's GOING to happen, given it hasn't developed, and its still 8 days away, but it's a system to watch very closely. It's been 8 years since FL got nailed by a big 'un and this could be it.
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1487. bappit
Weekly ENSO Update is out. Quoting:

• The basin-wide equatorial
upper ocean (0-300 m) heat
content is greatest prior to and
during the early stages of a
Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels) and least
prior to and during the early
stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.
• The slope of the oceanic
thermocline is least (greatest)
during warm (cold) episodes.
• Recent values of the upperocean
heat anomalies (slightly
positive) and a near zero
thermocline slope index reflect
ENSO neutral conditions.
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Quoting JLPR2:
I must say 96L is not getting enough love. :P
I expect its chances to increase at 8pm, 94L might stay at 80%, but it has a chance at getting upped to 90%, 95L should stay at 30%. IMO



Agree. 96L plenty south and lots of moisture to work with. 94L is doing it a favor.
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Quoting StormJunkie:

Actually, pretty much every model has the basic cone from Appalachicola to off the OBX.  So I would say there is a pretty good consensus on general track...The specifics are what will have to be worked out in the coming days.  Just my thinking right now though.  Hard to argues with that much agreement between the models.
I'm still not discounting a east coast track yet until 94L is deeply inside the caribbean(central to N.W)
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1484. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:





7 years shy of K by 12 Hours.

Go Fig'ya ?

We've seen that 2 times in 24 Hours now.

That run earlier by half a day.

I'll just offer dat cuz it popped in my skull.


something to watch for now
on the future runs
we will see soon enough
in 7 days
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Quoting spathy:
Hi Wu
I havent had time to read back too much.
But I feel like this is deja vu all over again.
If 94 continues to stay weak past Puerto Rico,couldnt it still continue to head West and later develop?
Or not develop much and complete its West travels into Mexico and Central America?

Are these two scenarios out of the realm of possibility now? Or what?
It's unlikely, but nothing is ever written in stone until it happened yesterday or many years ago. 

That said, this system has more latitude than the previous storms that trekked right through the Carib and it also has a much larger more defined envelope.  Yesterday I was all about this thing heading straight for Mexico, but just not seeing it now.
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1482. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
1481. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
643 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FLZ059-202330-
ST. LUCIE-
643 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT.

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIE VILLAGE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT SAINT
LUCIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE INDIAN RIVER ESTATES...PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK...QUEENS
COVE AND SAINT LUCIE WEST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2726 8021 2728 8023 2726 8023 2726 8028
2721 8028 2721 8046 2726 8043 2749 8052
2756 8035 2756 8031 2746 8028 2742 8026
2740 8026 2733 8021 2727 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 230DEG 13KT 2747 8041 2732 8035
2721 8042

$$
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.