Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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1680. scott39
You bone heads who think you know more than the NHC, gave a good laugh for this evening!
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Quoting LargoFl:
exactly, like it cannot get its act together, its moving fast..what 25 mph..remember ernesto did that also...it had dry air getting into it..and poof you got spin, you have a low, you have some wispy clouds..you dont have..80%....80% you expect geez when i wake up tomorrow we will have a STORM..well its been how long now..18 hours red, and nothing.......now i know..a week from now it will explode and people will say SEE i told you so...remember folks..im only saying NOW, it looks terrible LOL, I have more rain and wind today..inside florida..than that storm has..today..well i give up lol..again not arguing with ya..i just secretly want this to die out and stay far away..from florida
UH... Largo... you realize that red means FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS... right? You have 30 hours to go before it's named... If this forms by Thursday morning, NHC is forecast compliant...
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I personally think they should have had it stay at 80 percent until it started to gain convection.
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A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

I'm reading this as....hey as soon as we see thunderstorm activity increase we're calling it either a TD or TS
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
YES I WAS RIGHT 94L IS AT 90% hmm they said it simmilar to what I said

95L remains remains at 30%

96L upped to 40%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH




for being right you get a cookie
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1675. LargoFl
Quoting JLPR2:
I can almost hear 96L:

"Yo, 94L! This is how it's done!"


XD
LOL YES..now THIS one needs watching..it looks so much better than 94..by the way is this..96?......................................... .............AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
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1674. Matt74
Quoting JLPR2:


Your avatar... where in San Juan was it? I got as picture of some very similar palm trees but they were in Rio Grande. :)
It was at the Wyndham Rio resort. It's about 30 miles outside of San Juan. We went back in June. Very beautiful down there. Can't wait to go back. Where abouts do you live in PR if you don't mind me asking?
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Looks like 94L will be a td tonight or tomorrow morning.
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I just created a blog entry with my new forecast:

Link

Feels free to comments!
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Quoting JLPR2:
I can almost hear 96L:

"Yo, 94L! This is how it's done!"


XD

I think 96L could take a Fiona-like track.
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Hope someone post the 8:00 TWO
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
1669. bappit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
94L up to 90%
96L up to 40%
95L stays 30%.

They can only be thinking about tomorrow or tomorrow night on 94L. We'll see what happens.
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1668. JLPR2
I can almost hear 96L:

"Yo, 94L! This is how it's done!"


XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Complacency... would not recommend that this stage of the season.
Quoting Thewatchcontinues:
not worried at all here in florida these storms seem to always either fizzle out or hook way east out to sea or go well south

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
YES I WAS RIGHT 94L IS AT 90% hmm they said it simmilar to what I said

95L remains remains at 30%

96L upped to 40%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10916
18Z GFDL


HOUR:114.0 LONG: -77.94 LAT: 21.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.13 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.28
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -78.73 LAT: 22.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.77
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -79.47 LAT: 24.09 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.85
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This sentence from the TWO pretty much hits the nail on the head:

WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

IMO 90% is a little too aggressive, but we'll see.
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#'s are creeping up
Quoting CybrTeddy:
94L up to 90%
96L up to 40%
95L stays 30%.

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94L 90% lol to all you haters
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Quoting CaribBoy:
BOREDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
You should at least get some rain, CaribBoy....

:o)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
and here come the impatient crowd, 94L hasnt developed yet so it looks like crap and now wont lol

geez
Think these ones get home around Dmin every day and see the same stage of the storm... lol

I'm very interested in how this will look when I get up in the a.m. Not expecting much right now...
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EDIT - Ninja'd by Taz, Allan, CRS and CybrTeddy. :(
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94L up to 90%.



96L up too 40%
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
20 years ago tonight...

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 20 1992

...POORLY ORGANIZED ANDREW CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 350 MILES ...550 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM... NORTH AND 30 MILES... 50 KM...SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1015
MB...29.97 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.3 N... 62.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

GERRISH

Thank you for this excellent reminder... This is exactly why I think we can't just push this one off till it grows. Because then it might be too late. We need to stay on top of this as much as possible and stay completely prepared for anything.
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012



A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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94L up to 90%
96L up to 40%
95L stays 30%.
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Quoting LargoFl:
exactly, like it cannot get its act together, its moving fast..what 25 mph..remember ernesto did that also...it had dry air getting into it..and poof you got spin, you have a low, you have some wispy clouds..you dont have..80%....80% you expect geez when i wake up tomorrow we will have a STORM..well its been how long now..18 hours red, and nothing.......now i know..a week from now it will explode and people will say SEE i told you so...remember folks..im only saying NOW, it looks terrible LOL, I have more rain and wind today..inside florida..than that storm has..today..well i give up lol..again not arguing with ya..i just secretly want this to die out and stay far away..from florida
Well, NHC bumped it to 90%, they must see something.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
jascott1967 you have a very nice surprise waiting in your mail box.Hope you will read it soon :).
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1650. LargoFl
I dont know where this IS in texas, but this is a second warning for that area there............
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST
OF ADRIAN TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOOTLEG...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES WEST OF VEGA TO 29 MILES WEST OF
HEREFORD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADRIAN...
HEREFORD...
BOOTLEG...
WILDORADO...
VEGA...
SIMMS...
DAWN...
BOYS RANCH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
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Quoting LargoFl:
exactly, like it cannot get its act together, its moving fast..what 25 mph..remember ernesto did that also...it had dry air getting into it..and poof you got spin, you have a low, you have some wispy clouds..you dont have..80%....80% you expect geez when i wake up tomorrow we will have a STORM..well its been how long now..18 hours red, and nothing.......now i know..a week from now it will explode and people will say SEE i told you so...remember folks..im only saying NOW, it looks terrible LOL, I have more rain and wind today..inside florida..than that storm has..today..well i give up lol..again not arguing with ya..i just secretly want this to die out and stay far away..from florida

Ernesto had more or less 1.3 centers of circ to cat-herd over his ATL track, and when things got out of control he just formed a whole new llc, to keep it on the road, so to speak. 94L can't cat herd this crowd.. there will be a last circulation standing, when it's all said and done.

There. I shoe-horned in as many cliches as any mortal should be allowed! :)
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94L up to 90%, 95L remains at 30%, and 96L is up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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1647. bappit
If the front had come south to link up with 95L then the risk of a rapid spin up would be gone and there would have been no need to send out a plane to check things out. Of course, they found only a very weak system anyway.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
irene and 94L are nearly IDENTICAL. irene was a naked swirl at one point with no convection AT ALL. it got over warmer waters and it started flaring up. eventually this will develop once it passes west of 50W longitude
Different system. Different conditions.

The point about potential for development is made via the analogy. Don't take it further than you need to.

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94L has improved in structure and will be moving into a more conductive environment for gradual strengthening there is a high chance 90% of this becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hrs....... imo
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Quoting gordydunnot:
You don't see the danger because you don't live in the Antilles.


Totally agree with you! We're really on edge right now!
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I'm sticking with 80% and a FL or East coast strike. More and more I'm not thinking gulf here. JMHO
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1641. bappit
Quoting FutureWx6221:


Link

Link

I'll let the links do the talking.

There is a pre-frontal trough like I said. When I hear attached to a front I think baroclinic processes. If the dry air has not come below Brownsville then I don't think the density differences are there.
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96E RIP



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Why do you think the NHC puts in the next 48hrs. It's like in sales you have to be careful people pick the word they want out of a sentence and that's all they hear.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon all

I have not been on the past couple of days but thought I would stop in to make a few comments. 94l seems to be suffering from the same malaise that has plagued previous systems that tried to organize in the Atlantic. Very dry air around the Northern semi circle of the circulation coupled with a forward speed of 20 to 25 MPH is simply not allowing it to get its act together. Recent small convective blow ups have diminished and there is no tightening up of the cloud deck whatsoever.

The SHIPS intensity forecast is too aggressive IMO and I see two possible scenarios developing. The first has the system as a 50 MPH TS entering the Caribbean and the steering high that is forecast to lift to the N would allow it to cut across Hispaniola.

The second sees a much weaker system entering the Eastern Caribbean and remaining caught up in the Easterly flow all the way to the Western and then NW Caribbean.

For the moment I think it is touch and go whether it makes TS status before reaching the islands.
Thanks for this. The big debate right now is whether we'll see sufficient improvement in the cloud cover development overnight for it to be named. At the speed it's going, 94L's got what, 48 hours before it gets to the Lesser Antilles?
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Structure on 94L is still good, but convection is still bad.
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Agree spathy.. We are entering HIGH season and the waters are warmer than they have ever been.  Any disturbance out there has the potential to blow up before our eyes.  Better to be watchful and prepare than get blindsided unaware.
Quoting spathy:


The lack of strengthening and the past storms of this season combined with 94s large rotation is exactly why I am not taking my eyes of this for one moment.

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Doesn't look like a mess to me. Just needs more convection.

It already has a closed low-level circulation. So painstakingly close to TD status, yet so far...
Also, it's ginormous, so I put the big image instead of the floater.
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20 years ago tonight...

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 20 1992

...POORLY ORGANIZED ANDREW CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 350 MILES ...550 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM... NORTH AND 30 MILES... 50 KM...SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1015
MB...29.97 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.3 N... 62.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

GERRISH
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1633. LargoFl
Quoting redwagon:

Old saying, 'If we don't hang together, surely we will all hang seperatly' the components of 94L can't hang together, and are hanging seperatly.
exactly, like it cannot get its act together, its moving fast..what 25 mph..remember ernesto did that also...it had dry air getting into it..and poof you got spin, you have a low, you have some wispy clouds..you dont have..80%....80% you expect geez when i wake up tomorrow we will have a STORM..well its been how long now..18 hours red, and nothing.......now i know..a week from now it will explode and people will say SEE i told you so...remember folks..im only saying NOW, it looks terrible LOL, I have more rain and wind today..inside florida..than that storm has..today..well i give up lol..again not arguing with ya..i just secretly want this to die out and stay far away..from florida
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Quoting bappit:

The front is still north of 95L. There was a prefrontal trough that pushed through SE Tx yesterday. The dewpoint in Brownsville is still up at 75. Houston dewpoint is around 63.

Pretty unbelievable to say that 95L is attached to a front.


Link

Link

I'll let the links do the talking.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
and here come the impatient crowd, 94L hasnt developed yet so it looks like crap and now wont lol

geez
Here read this mans blog.Please come back and tell me your thoughts.It's opened to the whole blog actually.Would really like to see you all's opinion.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.