Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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1781. hahaguy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't act like you wouldn't welcome a Fay repeat for the sake of a few days of no work/school with power. ;) Whether 94L will be a Fay or a Charley, is left to be seen -- if it even is something in the first place.


I don't want another Fay lol. We had record flooding here.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
1780. SLU
20/1145 UTC 15.7N 44.8W TOO WEAK 94L

20/1745 UTC 15.6N 46.7W T1.0/1.0 94L

20/2345 UTC 15.2N 48.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
1779. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Poor Florida always getting "something"
dont smile LOL..it could very well, be tracking UP the east coast in a day or two..you see how these tracks change every 8 hours or so LOL..
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1778. Grothar
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is it me, or do the tracks seem to have shifted a little South?



Slightly. But basically the more reliable ones have been pretty much the same for a few days.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting SLU:


Always very dangerous to see such a strong wave strengthening in late August that far south in the EATL. Models show it could affect the islands down the line ....

Eh. I don't think it'll be much of a threat. Reminds me of Fiona for some reason
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Haven't received a decent cyclone in years.


I know right, it's almost exciting. They are a fact of life here and most coastal areas. We just choose to live there.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1775. hahaguy
Quoting StormJunkie:

I would say 4 years. No, they never technically upgraded it and called it a major; but I promise you it brought major class surge to a very, very large area.
Woops,I must be off my game today lol.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
I agree they'll call it a TD at 11pm unless it fizzles out. It makes sense. Watches need to go up for the LA.
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Several days ago when we first started watching 94L I noted the anomalous ridging showing up in southern Canada, mentioning that if the disturbance stayed weak, the SE US would have to watch out. At the time, the ECMWF and GFS were still blowing up the storm and curving it out before the US. However, 94L has stayed weak and that ridging is still showing up over the NE US and southern Canada. Anomalous riding in that region favors landfalls in the SE US, and sure enough, look where the break in the ridge is showing up on our 12z Euro and GFS 500mb heights and anomalies map...




Of course, should it stay weaker than forecasted (as it has been doing because of dry air) it will end up further south and west. Land interaction with Haiti and the other greater Antilles should also keep it from becoming a significant threat, at least for the several few days. Look out for accelerating trade winds in the central Caribbean too...shouldn't be as big as a problem as it was for Ernesto, but they will be there.
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GFDL faster








Link
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Off Topic.....Phyllis Diller passed away today. She was a very funny lady.
Loved her. Made a lot of people laugh. Had a good long life. RIP Phyllis.
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Quoting hahaguy:
It's been 7 years. Let's keep it that way.
Don't act like you wouldn't welcome a Fay repeat for the sake of a few days of no work/school with power. ;) Whether 94L will be a Fay or a Charley, is left to be seen -- if it even is something in the first place.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Don't be fooled by the lack of convection. Microwave imagery reveals 94L has a great low level structure:

Excellent post and exactly why they are only waiting on a little more convection before classifying it.
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1768. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Off Topic.....Phyllis Diller passed away today. She was a very funny lady.


That's sad.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
CIMSS TPW imagery shows 94L has a very large moisture envelope associated with the system. The wave in front of 94L has acted as sort of a battering ram against the SAL. Also a nice amount of cyclonic turning is seen:

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Models shifted back to the west...

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Storm watching just makes the storm seem like it's moving slower. I can't wait till this thing is finally in the Caribbean to get a better perspective.
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Is it me, or do the tracks seem to have shifted a little South?
Quoting Grothar:

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"I" storms seem to be hard nuts to crack.  Not sure if it is a curse or what, but they so
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now everyone in the weather world notices the the curse of the "I" storms?.Even in my local news paper(washington post they also have the article posted online) they notice the curse...

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Quoting hahaguy:
It's been 7 years. Let's keep it that way.
I would say 4 years.  No, they never technically upgraded it and called it a major; but I promise you it brought major class surge to a very, very large area.
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1761. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1760. isuxn2

95L looks to be reforming around 25N , 95W when looking at visible sat to me.
Doesn't look like it is gone to me.
Anyone else see this?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Off Topic.....Phyllis Diller passed away today. She was a very funny lady.


yes she was...I love to hear her talk about her and Fang - lol
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1758. SLU
Quoting ryang:


What's your take on 96L?


Always very dangerous to see such a strong wave strengthening in late August that far south in the EATL. Models show it could affect the islands down the line ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Quoting washingtonian115:
Poor Florida always getting "something"
Good place to live if you want to experience a hurricane. We do not need an excuse for wind storm insurance to rise though.
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Quoting JohnsIslandJoe:


100 MPH winds hitting SC? Ughh! Since I live in Charleston I'm pulling for a hard right out into the open Atlantic. These storms are amazing to watch but miserable to live thru.
Welcome to the blog...You join a high quality list of Chucktonians here including presslord, chucktown, nash28, myself and a few other I'm sure I'm leaving out.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the diurnal maximum proves to be helpful convectively, we should have 09L by sunrise.


We'll see. Only thing holding it back at the moment is Dry Air. Maybe 94L is resolving this by expanding in size to tap into the moisture to the south.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Off Topic.....Phyllis Diller passed away today. She was a very funny lady.
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1753. LargoFl
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
whew thanks for this radar..storms coming towards me, supposedly this front will be Over my area all day tomorrow, so all that rain northern florida got today..will be here in central florida tomorrow...oh boy
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Now everyone in the weather world notices the the curse of the "I" storms?.Even in my local news paper(washington post they also have the article posted online) they notice the curse...
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1751. hahaguy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Haven't received a decent cyclone in years.
It's been 7 years. Let's keep it that way.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
1750. SLU
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/2345 UTC 15.2N 48.7W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
20/2345 UTC 23.8N 96.7W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367

Excellent rotation in the upper and mid levels.

Lower levels now attempting to close off, too.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Don't be fooled by the lack of convection. Microwave imagery reveals 94L has a great low level structure:



Once this builds convection this thing is going to take off!
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1747. ryang
Quoting SLU:
Some very strong language on 94L and 96L from the NHC.


What's your take on 96L?
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Remember a couple things with the TWO:

1. The percentages given don't mean much, 94L will do what its gonna do no matter what % the NHC gives it.

2. There's not much difference between 80% and 90%. It's not like just because its 90% now means its development chances have skyrocketed. Even if it had gone to 70% it still wouldn't be that big of a deal, just a slight drop with no real change in development chances.
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1745. wn1995
Quoting JLPR2:
Here is 96L's ascat pass, ATCF has it at 12n, but by the looks of this the LLC is developing at 10n.



It is certainly organizing. I wouldn't be surprised to see it up to 50% at the next TWO. Wonder why most models aren't too enthusiastic about developing it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Poor Florida always getting "something"
Haven't received a decent cyclone in years.
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1743. LargoFl
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles clustered around Florida:

thanks Levi..looks like we are in its sights again like this morning, waters IN the gulf are HOT..almost 90, if it sits in the gulf very long..whew
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1742. Matt74
Quoting JLPR2:


Ah yes! They are the same palm trees then. :) I live in northern Carolina,PR almost San Juan.

Here is the picture, I was there in June too.
Beautiful picture my friend. Exact same trees. Oh how i wish i was down there right now. It is the best of both worlds. Our room was on the beach and behind us was the mountains.
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1741. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:
Here is 96L's ascat pass, ATCF has it at 12n, but by the looks of this the LLC is developing at 10n.



practically closed ... strange how the models aren't that interested in it yet

could be the 1st genuine cape verde storm this year
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
1740. scott39
I give 94L a 150% chance of tracking right over SW Fl. and into the SE GOM.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Don't be fooled by the lack of convection. Microwave imagery reveals 94L has a great low level structure:

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1738. JLPR2
I don't get these very infrequently, but after seeing 96L trying to form at 10n I got a bad vibe from it. But ignore my bad vibe and carry on.

It'll probably be just a right as my prediction of 94L becoming a TD at 5pm today. XD
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Quoting JLPR2:


That is very true, the ASCAT pass indicates 96L circulation isn't organized at all.

Though the convection it has developed should change that soon.

lol ITCZ
The convection will probably wane if it decides to detach from the monsoon trof. If it doesn't, watch out.
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Poor Florida always getting "something"
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This sentence from the TWO pretty much hits the nail on the head:

WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

IMO 90% is a little too aggressive, but we'll see.
it is the chances in 48 hours. I think they are considering the warmer water ahead
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Quoting StormJunkie:

Smack dab in the middle of the straits after a trek over the mountains it looks like, no?


Pretty much, graphics should be out soon. Not sure on the mountains, would need to be eastern Cuba.
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Quoting LargoFl:
...they should have highlighted the word.."COULD"


Grasping at straws... it's 90% and will likely be a depression when you awaken tomorrow morning
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1731. LargoFl
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Why are so many of you guys forgetting that 94L has a much better organized circulation than 96L? All it needs is a good burst and it's 09L. 96L will take a while to organize a good circulation. Also, while I haven't been able to check surface charts, it seems 96L hasn't detached from the monsoon trof yet.
my guess is, like the other storms before it..it will race across at 25 mph and two weeks from now...we will be sitting here...talking pro and con..about IT..lol..what a season this is huh
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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