Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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ATCF now lists 94L as a low, rather than a mere disturbance:

AL, 94, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 448W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 94, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 155N, 467W, 30, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 94, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 153N, 488W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

For 95L, meanwhile, the pressure has risen two millibars:

AL, 95, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 232N, 972W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 235N, 965W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 240N, 963W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting JLPR2:
One of 94L's biggest problems, will be hard to slow down with a high like that.

That high is currently moving to the N.
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1929. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


forward speed is not hurting the structure of this system, I think it will be fine


It's not hurting it, it's more like slowing down development.

Reminds me of how Dean struggled to clear an eye because of it's forward speed, even though it was already a cat 2.
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1928. scott39
Dont focus on the convection for 94L right now. The structure of this Invest is amazing! Hope the Islands wont have anything more than a TS, and the Mountains rip it apart. If it makes it past the land Gauntlet, im afraid it is going to be Major event anywhere from SW FL. up the coast.... to the N gulf Coast.
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Uhh...Impressive system here.

/sarcasm
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
CIMSS TPW imagery shows 94L has a very large moisture envelope associated with the system. The wave in front of 94L has acted as sort of a battering ram against the SAL. Also a nice amount of cyclonic turning is seen:


Note 96L... nice turning there too
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Quoting JLPR2:
One of 94L's biggest problems, will be hard to slow down with a high like that.



forward speed is not hurting the structure of this system, I think it will be fine
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
Quoting Chicklit:
Okay, here's the litany of 'lids on the can' that keeps 94L from "the recurve."

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N61W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE N NEAR 35N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH FROM NEAR 26N59W TO 20N75W...BUT IS INFILTRATED WITH DRY AIR WHICH IS LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE TO PRODUCE ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 59W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N35W.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N34W TO 29N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND THE SERIES OF ATLC TROPICAL WAVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...there's ridges supporting other ridges...the trough is the only chance and according to this it's weak and infiltrated with dry air...please correct me if I'm wrong.


The trough is deep according to 500 mb charts. This is expected to erode the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and help induce a more northerly movement once in the NE Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


img src="Surprised GIF Pictures, Images and Photos">

LOL you got anything else

but anyway what I am saying is true
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12309
1921. JLPR2
One of 94L's biggest problems, will be hard to slow down with a high like that.

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Okay, here's the 'litany of lids' that keep 94L from "the recurve."

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N61W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE N NEAR 35N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH FROM NEAR 26N59W TO 20N75W...BUT IS INFILTRATED WITH DRY AIR WHICH IS LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE TO PRODUCE ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 59W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N35W.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N34W TO 29N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND THE SERIES OF ATLC TROPICAL WAVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...there's ridges supporting other ridges...the trough is the only chance and according to this it's weak and infiltrated with dry air...please correct me if I'm wrong.

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Quoting TexNowNM:


Glad somebody else remembers this, too.
I won't ever forget it...And honestly I'm a little disappointed in myself.  I fully intend to serve a page on my website dedicated to telling the story of Lyda Ann and the news stations despite "certain death" statements by the NHC.  I got so busy with relief after the storm I never got around to it.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It choked the low that was to the SW with wave in front.

Sounds painful.
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Why is Dr.Masters so down on 96? Weak 94L isnt going to upwell much water, rather, moisten up that lousy SAL. We're getting behind 96L big time in my house. The kids love it...what's not to like?
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Did you not see the microwave pass? Very impressive. NHC gave it a 90% chance for a reason.



If he didn't, he has now! Thanks for giving us that. I'd say keep it posted every 50 posts for those like recently me had to reduce my view to 50 posts. I pay for wireless thru my rent but the dlink's so far away it's slower than stealing it from the marina, which I do.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3277
1915. LargoFl
well good night folks..a great day posting huh, its going to be much worse tomorrow lol...have a great night and stay safe out there
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COC 15.8?





Really?

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting StormJunkie:

Nah, technically you were right in regards to the last classified major.  I'm still just a little pissed about that whole situation.  What was that damn mayors name that got those folks on Bolivar killed?


Glad somebody else remembers this, too.
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When a System have a structure like this is a dangerous thing not matter what
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1911. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It choked the low that was to the SW with wave in front.


Yeah, it ate it. :\

I guess that interference is gone.
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1910. Matt74
Quoting hurricane23:
As levi stated earlier the overall pattern does now favor a threat to the conus. Dont get caught up on the models if ur in florida this thing has plenty of hurdles to cross before it becomes a signifcant threat.

Ask ernesto in 06 :0)

Models aim elsewere tommorow
This is the best statement i've seen
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
1909. Patrap
..earlier,


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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1908. LargoFl
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Quoting spathy:


YUP and good to see you in usual form of sane summation.
Thanks MLC :O)



Spathy, thanks! Good to see you still 'round, too. :) Man, I just call 'em like I see 'em; and, every once in awhile I get something right!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And which models are these?

A majority of them... They were clustered south of Hispaniola and into the East Gulf this morning. Now they're over/north of Hispaniola and into Florida.

We'll probably wake up in the morning with them going out to sea. Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
1905. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I wasn't kidding about the shields Gro.


I hear ya!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
1904. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:
Dry air reaching us.... What's next?


Errr, wet air....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24645
Quoting JLPR2:
Vort is looking great, all it has is a little protuberance to the right.



It choked the low that was to the SW with wave in front.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The models have done nothing but trend east today. I'm not sure what you're looking at, lol.


the hwrf, gfdl, gfs and euro all take it to Florida now, not sure what you are seeing with this eastward trend
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
Dry air reaching us.... What's next?

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
1898. JLPR2
Vort is looking great, all it has is a little protuberance to the right.

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Quoting sunlinepr:


There's a war between moisture and dry air

for sure
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The models have done nothing but trend east today. I'm not sure what you're looking at, lol.
And which models are these?
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1895. LargoFl
ok the warnings are starting to begin in central florida west coast, tomorrow more i guess.............BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
834 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
TAMPA BAY WATERS...
INCLUDING ANNA MARIA ISLAND...CLEARWATER BEACH...COURTNEY CAMPBELL
CAUSEWAY...DUNEDIN...EGMONT KEY...GANDY BRIDGE...HILLSBOROUGH
BAY...HOWARD FRANKLAND BRIDGE...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...JOHNS PASS...
OLD TAMPA BAY...PASS-A-GRILLE CHANNEL...SAINT PETE BEACH...SUNSHINE
SKYWAY BRIDGE...TAMPA BAY AND TERRA CEIA BAY...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 830 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM 12 NM WEST OF DUNEDIN TO 8 NM WEST OF EGMONT KEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&
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Quoting StormJunkie:

That giant file size surface map is great!  Got a few new model links I need to add to the Quick Links page too.

No #2, one is awesome and plenty for me!  He's sitting next to me now eating pretzels and learning how to look at sat images and forecast models ;)



SO COOL! Good apples don't fall too far from the tree! AWESOME, friend! :)
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So looking at the Atlantic map, one can't help but wonder which stone the "seasons a bust,"syndicate, are hiding under now!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Need some t-storms before i believe this wave will be a player.
Did you not see the microwave pass? Very impressive. NHC gave it a 90% chance for a reason.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting pottery:

Need any ketchup ?



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
I'd say TD9 by 11pm and TS Issac by 11am tomorrow or 5pm tomorrow
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12309
Quoting hurricane23:
As levi stated earlier the overall pattern does now favor a threat to the conus. Dont get caught up on the models if ur in florida this thing has plenty of hurdles to cross before it becomes a signifcant threat.

Ask ernesto in 06 :0)

Models aim elsewere tommorow


Hi Adrian. You think it may go just north of PR instead of South?
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Whats the chances they go tropical storm and by pass depression?
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1887. LargoFl
Quoting wakd3Xn04:


Been watching that all day hoping it would stay north. I gota drive to Orlando tomorrow for a job interview and would rather not have to deal with I-4 and Orlando traffic in the rain.
Good luck tomorrow then, but rain is in the forecast, hopefully not too much street and road flooding like up north today
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



You may be right. I hope it curves back towards the Azores. ;) Speaking of the Azores, on that eastern side of the Atlantic the high is dissipating. SFC MAP (Thank you, SJ! :) Appreciate that map!)

That Atlantic will NOT be that weak. Won't happen. BH may retrograde more northwards, but 94L (IF it does develop) won't slip out to sea. The current east coast trough is lifting out; and, I'd suspect the western periphery of the ridge to get a tad stronger.

I'm not the guru! (And, I'm not a model guy, very old school; but also very proud of the model advances - last year or two much, much better. Anyways, much smarter folks here than me! However, I don't mind throwing my 2 cents in, now and again. ;)


--- SJ, so, I know fatherhood is GR8! #2 on the way yet? Or did I miss that one? :)
That giant file size surface map is great!  Got a few new model links I need to add to the Quick Links page too.

No #2, one is awesome and plenty for me!  He's sitting next to me now eating pretzels and learning how to look at sat images and forecast models ;)
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1885. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The models have done nothing but trend east today. I'm not sure what you're looking at, lol.
We must be looking at 2 different ones. Lol
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I found it interesting how far south the 12Z Basin HWRF kept 94L:

Link


Need some t-storms before i believe this wave will be a player.
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1883. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Issac by 11pm or I'll eat my crow hat again.

Need any ketchup ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24645
Quoting gustavcane:
Look at that pinhole eye!! Typhoon Tembin must be at high cat 5 looking like that. Taiwan is in big trouble from this monster
Convection is not nearly symmetrical enough to be a cat 5. Not all pinholes eyes = cat 5 btw. An impressive cyclone nonetheless.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
When the Doc made a late day post that caught my attention.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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