Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just something to keep in mind...

Those who want to see a strong system (regardless of the end result) should root for the southern route.

If this crosses the spine of Hispaniola, it opens a whole can of worms.

As always, I will only post analysis on what I see and nothing more.

No bias, no bull
Thank you for staying true.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
Quoting driftwoodswfl:

What makes you think the cone will shift south? Haven't models started to shift north?
the center is reforming further south near 14.7N. that could mean a weaker system as of now which would shift the track farther south and west like the euro model is showing
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Quoting Gorty:
Once Issac forms and even if Joyce does or does not form in August, will 2012 be the second most (or tie 2005) active August on record?

Remember. 2005 ended August with Katrina.
We would have to have 95L and 96L form to Tie.
And at this time. 95L is not going to form.
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Can u lay off dude! We had enough levi bashing yesterday so lets get on with it and let see what happens.Hey he may change his track today u never know!


Hey I'm not bashing at all as i just didn't agree with the track he posted. It was really off base from what the models where saying that's all. The track he had was in between the Bahamas and Bermuda when the GFS and Euro were over FL.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Link
Here is the radar site though.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


No offense but Levi forecasted TD 09 yesterday to travel just west of Bermuda. I mean really. The guy was so far off base it was unreal.



how long is the blog going to put up with this TROLL?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey a Seminoles fan is a friend of mine. Noles should be right there this year in regards to be a top five team.

Euro Ensembles just in case the blog missed it.
For the last time, Euro is an outlier...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
Quoting Redbull77:
I know the models seem to have somewhat of a fix on this but just remember things can and do change. Sometimes even with most the models clustered, they can be pretty far off. Katrina is one example of this. No one should let there guard down if u live in an area susceptible to hurricanes
It's hard to believe it, but forecast tracks at 5 days have improved radically since 2005, at least partially because of storms like Katrina, Rita, and the others of the 2005 season. I'm pretty sure the 5-day margin of error the NHC gives still allows for just about anything to happen beyond that point. But a clustered forecast this early suggests to me that the most likely solution will bring this system somewhere near or over FL.

Nevertheless, I do agree with you; interests along the US coast should monitor the progress of the system, since a FL landfall does not in any way rule at a later, supplementary landfall...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
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Hurricane Hunters should find Tropical Storm Isaac later today..

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
3971. junie1
Quoting CaribBoy:
look at that closely.. On the beautiful screen of my 27" iMac I can affirm you THAT THE CENTER IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 15N (15N 52.2W)

Link
lol yow caribboy were are you located i know you love a good storm
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3969. GetReal




TD9 is embedded in a serious steering layer that probably has the system moving WSW in access of 20 MPH.

IMO
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3968. TXCWC
NOTE this is 7 days out SO IT IS SURE TO CHANGE. With that said here is the NHC thinking right now. TRACK FOLLOWS latest GFS



Intensity STRONG CAT 2

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Just something to keep in mind...

Those who want to see a strong system (regardless of the end result) should root for the southern route.

If this crosses the spine of Hispaniola, it opens a whole can of worms.

As always, I will only post analysis on what I see and nothing more.

No bias, no bull
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
center IS STILL ABOVE 15N or right on the line

umm no its S of 15N

Quoting RitaEvac:
If this is legit and the center is farther SW, this is going to have significant downstream impacts



yep a whole new game play

Quoting StormTracker2K:


That center is definitely SW from the 5am spot based on that image.



yes it is

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nothing exposed to the north of the convection for the time being.

Pretty healthy argument for a WSW movement for the time being.



yep
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No ryang
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
09L looking much more impressive this morning... Should see Isaac at the 11am Advisory, and with a WSW jog... The cone might shift a little south, Which also means, the NHC might push it up to a Major on the Cone of DOOM.

What makes you think the cone will shift south? Haven't models started to shift north?
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Quoting seminolesfan:
Thanks S2K. :)


Hey a Seminoles fan is a friend of mine. Noles should be right there this year in regards to be a top five team.

Euro Ensembles just in case the blog missed it.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Posting all options for TD 9 is key. This could end up in the Gulf afterall if this center has indeed relocated further SW.
Exactly. The armchair forecasts are fun, but at the timeframe where the pros are off by 500-700 miles, how helpful are they?

Better to talk about current obs and trends at this point rather than playing poker with the models.
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You know, I never said a Major was going to hit.. Just said a storm meaning a possible TS or a Hurricane. To say i'm wishcasting is over the line when I constantly said after observing the pattern and watching a few tidbits, learning more about the pressure heights and stuff.. if this storm strengthens, it will move a bit more north and try to ride the East Coast. That's what the pattern shows... Not a wishcast or a dream. An observation by looking at the trends.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
Shouldn't we see a renumber to Isaac by now if that is the case at 11 am?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
TD9 is going to be a headscratcher!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


No offense but Levi forecasted TD 09 yesterday to travel just west of Bermuda. I mean really. The guy was so far off base it was unreal.


Can u lay off dude! We had enough levi bashing yesterday so lets get on with it and let see what happens.Hey he may change his track today u never know!
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3957. Gearsts
Anti cyclone a little out of place and the center is getting shear abit from the north thats why the coc is almost exposed at 14.9n or 15n.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
[WVW]
Which one tells the date of takeoff again?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yep so true



if thats the case forecast cone should make a big jump S and W


Or have more of a bend if the NHC concludes that the short term motion to the WSW will reverse itself prior to entering the Caribbean. They may still keep the cone pretty much where it is at the end of the forecast period for the time being or make a slight shift at 11 pending HH data
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Quoting canehater1:
Wide View Sat Loop. It helps me to read the Trop Wx
Discussion in another window and toggle back and forth
to this loop.

Link

great view, thanks.
looks like isaac wants to make a name for himself.
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3953. ryang
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking at Barbados radar it's interesting. The showers east of the radar are moving wsw, but once you 58n long. they head off to the wnw. This also ties into the mslp on the NHC floater of the high to the north of td9. It suppress td9 to that point.


Are u in Barbados?
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3952. Gorty
Once Issac forms and even if Joyce does or does not form in August, will 2012 be the second most (or tie 2005) active August on record?
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3951. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
[WVW]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
09L looking much more impressive this morning... Should see Isaac at the 11am Advisory, and with a WSW jog... The cone might shift a little south, Which also means, the NHC might push it up to a Major on the Cone of DOOM.
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3948. Michfan
The average margin of error for forecasts greater than 5 days out is 500 miles for the models. You can't expect any of us to do any better than that, hence why there is a cone for tracks. Some of you tend to forget this all too often. Look at Charley. It was forecast to hit Tampa dead on then took a sharp turn right into Punta Gorda which suprised everyone.
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3947. Patrap
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
[JWP]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting AussieStorm:
We've just had a HH plane take off from Tampa. Wonder what they are doing?



Non tasked mission (Kermit)

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Quoting seminolesfan:
Thanks S2K. :)


Posting all options for TD 9 is key. This could end up in the Gulf afterall if this center has indeed relocated further SW.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting AussieStorm:
We've just had a HH plane take off from Tampa. Wonder what they are doing?


95L again! Not sure why though now.
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Looking at Barbados radar it's interesting. The showers east of the radar are moving wsw, but once you 58n long. they head off to the wnw. This also ties into the mslp on the NHC floater of the high to the north of td9. It suppress td9 to that point.
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3942. Patrap






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No offense but Levi forecasted TD 09 yesterday to travel just west of Bermuda. I mean really. The guy was so far off base it was unreal.

I got many arguments to counter that, but I'm going to leave Levi alone. And for your information, he forecasted East Florida to SC landfall. Get your facts straight.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
3940. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38110
look at that closely.. On the beautiful screen of my 27" iMac I can affirm you THAT THE CENTER IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 15N (15N 52.2W)

Link
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3938. hercj
Quoting AussieStorm:

Would they be moving another plane into place to keep the flights going 24hrs?
No this is research. The AF Reserve out of Keesler in Biloxi have forward deployed to St Croix. NOAA is going down to do research. I am waiting to see if they send the GIV later today.
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You can see the Buoy reading in relation to the CoC/central burst of convection here:

Ramsdis Floater

Given the Buoy is at 14.5, the CoC has to be a shade north of that, maybe 14.7 or 14.8 as some suggested.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting StormTracker2K:


He's right the Euro ensembles are in the east Gulf.

Thanks S2K. :)
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Wow you people are gonna run off another good poster...
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Nothing exposed to the north of the convection for the time being.

Pretty healthy argument for a WSW movement.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The center could be farther SW than most think.

Microwave imagery doesn't lie.



That center is definitely SW from the 5am spot based on that image.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting hercj:
That is NOAA 42 on its way to Barbados

Would they be moving another plane into place to keep the flights going 24hrs?
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Quoting Thrawst:
Doesn't look good for me 8-(
Think I will write a blog today... since it looks likely we'll have a named storm by 5 p.m. and it looks likely the Bahamas will be in the 5-7 day cone...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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