Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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heres what my take on when it gets renumbered

a deer with no eyes.

i got no eyedeer
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


What's the difference two degrees makes?


well when you are dealing with advisorys and watches and warning and the timeing to allow people to prepare 2 degrees come a long way

if 94L/TD9 does not make it for the 11pm advisory it sure will for the 5am hey maybe they may even do a 2am one because it is in the watch issuance range or will be by the time it reaches that range
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
2228. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


that has a nice convective structure too it
maybe that will be our dangerous one

1 out of every 5 always is


Seems like these two are tied. Atleast for now. GEOS-5 isn't even done with it's 18Z run. Closes 95L tomorrow at 15z. You can see the thin tie that binds & hampers both in the model & tonight. 94L is huge..


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Quoting Grothar:


Me either.

Press 1 for Spanish
Press 2 for French

I wish you guys would learn German or Norwegian. It would be so much easier for me.


3 for Spanglish

Vaya Gro, mi bro... voy pa la marketa...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've always wondered, why aren't they allowed to go east of 53W? Lack of gas?


▪ Range at Maximum Normal Payload: 2,071 miles (1,800 nautical miles)


First flight will come from New Orleans, no way to fly a 6hr invest mission from that point.
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Quoting hydrus:
I hope this does not become a major hurricane and wipe out some poor country that is still recovering from previous disasters.

I see what you did there... HAITI.
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2224. Thrawst
Quoting Grothar:


Me either.

Press 1 for Spanish
Press 2 for French

I wish you guys would learn German or Norwegian. It would be so much easier for me.


I'm german ;)
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2223. SLU
SHIPS diagnoses some light to moderate northerly shear over 94L for the next couple of days and that coupled with dry air to the north could result in most of the convection staying on the south side of the system as it passes through the Islands.

SHEAR DIR 24 13 5 34 34 343 35 313 310 273 248 259 244
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Harrison, I'm pretty sure you forgot we're on the main blog.


cody, i think i did too...
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Quoting Levi32:


Exactly. Farther east than that and they barely have time to hit the center and run back. They want enough time for multiple passes that can sample the entire circulation.
Levi, Irene was forecasted to go through the entire carribean island chain (hispanola,Cuba) but moved north of the islands because it got stronger. if 94L becomes a strong tropical storm , would that favor just a nudge right for the track?
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Quoting Grothar:


Me either.

Press 1 for Spanish
Press 2 for French

I wish you guys would learn German or Norwegian. It would be so much easier for me.


how many languages do you know exactly? 9?
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2219. Dakster
Thinking we will get one of those 'near 100%' chances red circles.
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Every frame looks better has to be by 2am. Earlier if they get the pack together.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
Quoting weatherh98:


you scrred proly cuz theres nothing down there for the gator to munch at...

Harrison, I'm pretty sure you forgot we're on the main blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30266
Quoting cyclonekid:
I agree with that. I don't think it has enough convection yet. DMAX should help it some.
Would've been renumbered by now anyway...
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2215. pottery
Waves are lining up over Africa right now.
September, Remember......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
2214. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Quiero mirar las tormentas. Yo no quiero la muerte y la destrucción que traen a la región. ..it chupa.


Me either.

Press 1 for Spanish
Press 2 for French

I wish you guys would learn German or Norwegian. It would be so much easier for me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Maybe not QUITE there yet, but 5 am is a good shot.

I agree with that. I don't think it has enough convection yet. DMAX should help it some.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


What's the difference two degrees makes?


128 miles roughly
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100% at 11pm
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2210. hydrus
I hope this does not become a major hurricane and wipe out some poor country that is still recovering from previous disasters.
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Had some powerful storms blow through there weren't any warnings but there is now reports of damage to homes not too far north of here in my county, and there is tree debris around my area, saw multiple power flashes, wind gust were just a couple mph here under severe criteria... But they might have very well been just to my north. I'm not sure why a warning wasn't issued.
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Maybe not QUITE there yet, but 5 am is a good shot.

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Being so small, we won't feel the effects....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That would be kinda awkward to see you do that.


you scrred proly cuz theres nothing down there for the gator to munch at...
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2205. Matt74
Quoting weatherh98:
if you cant respect my observation and comment insipid banter then i cant respect you
I apologize. I was joking. You know more than i do. I come here for good info from ppl like you. Ok?
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


not true 50W is the line well that is what I was told when I was attending at the 33 regional association IV Hurricane confrence back during the week of 12 March 2011



so true



deadly stuff that was


What's the difference two degrees makes?
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2203. WxLogic
Good evening... 94L doing too so far. I still expect further intensification. It has a much better moisture envelope than earlier today:

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Quoting Levi32:


Data on something that close to the coast is always a good idea.

As for 94L, it has to cross 52.5W before it will technically be in range of the recon aircraft. First mission into it is tomorrow afternoon.


not true 50W is the line well that is what I was told when I was attending at the 33 regional association IV Hurricane confrence back during the week of 12 March 2011

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The NHC has to advise the appropriate governments and put together the graphics and text products. This will not happen before 11:00p.m. est.


so true

Quoting redwagon:







What Dean did.


deadly stuff that was
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
2201. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've always wondered, why aren't they allowed to go east of 53W? Lack of gas?


Exactly. Farther east than that and they barely have time to hit the center and run back. They want enough time for multiple passes that can sample the entire circulation.
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2199. pottery
Quoting redwagon:

What's that? CV Storms moving W? Whew. Glad that's not happening THIS year.

LOL !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
I Gus's no TD 9 at 11pm
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Quoting txwcc:

It's a very good thing.


I just wish all the Levi 32 bashers would STFU!
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Quoting opal92nwf:

That year had a mega ridge driving things West, At least during the time of Dean and Felix.

What's that? CV Storms moving W? Whew. Glad that's not happening THIS year.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
2195. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Oui, c'est evident. Oui, je tu comprends.

You have to excuse the omission of a few little dashes. I don't have them on he keyboard.
Quiero mirar las tormentas. Yo no quiero la muerte y la destrucción que traen a la región. ..it chupa.
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2194. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting lovemamatus:
Thank you!
We love 96L. Always will have a spot at my dinner table for 96L.....THE REAL DEAL.....THE STORM's STORM.


It's kind of a tall storm. I expected it not to be so high reaching.
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Quoting Matt74:
will Gordon loop back around and hit Florida too? What about 96L? Straight B line for Florida also? lol


everything goes to FL on this blog..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've always wondered, why aren't they allowed to go east of 53W? Lack of gas?


HH Hunters needs more funding so it can check out systems like this
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


I would renumber it as I've seen system with worse organization being classified.


Doesn't make it right however, it's just my opinion. I personally hold a little tighter standard however, peoples lives aren't hinging on my decision.
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Seriously, y'all? French?
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Quoting Matt74:
will Gordon loop back around and hit Florida too? What about 96L? Straight B line for Florida also? lol
if you cant respect my observation and comment insipid banter then i cant respect you
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2188. Grothar
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


actually...its pobrecito


`ño! lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
2187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Grothar:



pobresito


claro que si
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2185. Grothar
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


oui ça c'est vrai... Il ne parle pas bon français...comprends moi?


Oui, c'est evident. Oui, je tu comprends.

You have to excuse the omission of a few little dashes. I don't have them on he keyboard.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
00Z AMSU pass continues to show a good structure, but still lacking convection:

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2183. poikoo
ok rarely post but who are some of you people? these things change,and change again:) but i know a lot of you here just by your post like levi,grothar, patrap, ect. i will always look at what you say:) some others well like they say only come out at storm time:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've always wondered, why aren't they allowed to go east of 53W? Lack of gas?



I give the recone gas my kind of gas. Any one want too no what it is?
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2181. hydrus
94 says gimme some dat Caribbean soup.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.