Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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2531. SLU
Quoting DDR:

Were those hillsides forest or deforested,but still that must have been some crazy rain.


Heavily forested but they still came down in massive landslides. We got 26 inches (660mm) of rain in 23 hours during the passage of TOMAS. That's 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. Can't begin to imagine what that kind of rain would do to Trinidad.

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Quoting want2lrn:
I know everyone is focused on 94L, but those runs are also showing some much needed moisture from 95L for Corpus area, that would be great!


Yeah, I was noticing that. Good news. :)
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2529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2528. will40



staying together a lil better
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2527. Grothar
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I guess you are nonplussed : )


LOL 40 years of marriage can do that.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes its building



yep but still made direct land fall on us here in Grand Cayman



DUDE CHILL OUT lol stop drinking coke and coffee and red bull at the same time.



No I am not a kid I am an adult yep not even a teenager an adult. what about you?


I'm a 25 yrs old...adult lol. you look friendly
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6135
If this convection sustains and build more for a few more hours,then it will be classified at 5 AM.

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I know everyone is focused on 94L, but those runs are also showing some much needed moisture from 95L for Corpus area, that would be great!
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2523. GetReal
90 hours; 1003 mb moviing much slower west. May feel that opening along the Fl east coast?
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2522. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2521. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


lol. I was about to have withdrawals. :)



lololol
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Quoting will40:



let the pluses begin lol


lol. I was about to have withdrawals. :)
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Stronger this run
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
I think we are going to see an eastward shift with 00z GFS based on what I have seen so far
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2517. GetReal
84 hours; 1004mb

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2516. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2515. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Working for me now also. :)



let the pluses begin lol
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2514. GetReal
78 hours and this run is a little more realistic with a strengthening system south of Haiti coast.
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Working for me now also. :)
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Straightened back out for me
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2511. will40
im using firefox so it looks ok to me also
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2509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Looks fine to me, don't know why you all are saying it's messed up...
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Quoting Grothar:
Is the blog messed up. I want to "plus" you all and it won't let me.


I guess you are nonplussed : )
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2506. GetReal
72 hours; 1005 mb



south of DR, moving slower than last run.

Not using red!
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2505. will40
Quoting Grothar:
Is the blog messed up. I want to "plus" you all and it won't let me.



i think a post streatched it but i cant find out which one
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2504. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Just out of sheer curiosity. For all the old timers, when/what event was this blog the busiest/craziest time?


probably 2005 katrina/rita but it was pretty crazy with Irene last year.
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2502. Grothar
Is the blog messed up. I want to "plus" you all and it won't let me.
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Quoting opal92nwf:
This was Ivan six days out, just to get an idea of how much things can change.


True when it came to those Ivan 2004 models, but I looked back at the NHC graphic archive the actual cones of dome came out, they did not vary that much. So, if it becomes a td, we can all pick on the nhc and the cones. But the NHC is usually right on the money, 3 days out. And since Ivan, they have gotten better with the 5 day cone. We shall see. ER, except for recent Debby.

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Quoting gatorchomp:
She's about to cross 50 degrees.

Let the games begin!

Why are you calling it a she if it's supposed to be named Isaac? lol
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Evening all. My blog is all squished and I'm too tired to fix it. Can't see the plus thingy. So plusses for you all. You know I love ya. :)
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2497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2496. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
It will feel the effects of the warmer ocean temps soon. It should maintain the fast forward speed, which will keep it from becoming a hurricane for at least a couple days. That will be one of the factors towards a U.S. landfall.

True.
Good luck, down the road.

I'm out>>>>>>>>>>>
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2495. Gearsts
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Anyone else's comments running into the right side of the box?
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2493. GetReal
54 hours; 1006mb

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2492. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:
I see 94L is popping some popcorn, or not... XD

Anyways I'm not staying up to find out, goodnight everyone! I hope to wake up to 94L and not a TS watch.
TS watch or not it will have almost the same effect been ts or invest.
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2491. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Yeah.
Kind of glad I live this far south.....
It will feel the effects of the warmer ocean temps soon. It should maintain the fast forward speed, which will keep it from becoming a hurricane for at least a couple days. That will be one of the factors towards a U.S. landfall.
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With all the rightful(for now) speculation on 94L, don't forget about old 95L, ex-TD7 zombie, ex-Helene(I guess), ex-Cayman Killa. As you can see here it's alive and kicking, with a rotation in the low levels, and a disconnect from the trough. It's looking ok on it's own and might continue.
Link
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2489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2488. GetReal
48 hours; 1008mb

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Quoting Grothar:


I would have to say there is a pretty good consensus when the state disappears... "Just Sayin"
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2486. JLPR2
I see 94L is popping some popcorn, or not... XD

Anyways I'm not staying up to find out, goodnight everyone! I hope to wake up to 94L and not a TS watch.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
2485. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Our problem is mainly unstable hillsides left behind from the damage caused by hurricane Tomas in 2010. St. Lucia is very mountainous and Tomas ravaged our landscape and since then the low lying areas flood much more easily than pre-Tomas.

Were those hillsides forest or deforested,but still that must have been some crazy rain.
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2484. tkdaime
How strong will Isaac get if it goes north of port
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2483. pottery
Those forecast maps being posted....

Show very little forward speed. Still to reach the Islands after 24 hrs ?
Very little intensification. 1010 MB ? after 24 hrs?
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Begin new GFS DOOM run.
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2481. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.