Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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2581. Gearsts
Quoting floridaboy14:
GFS trending east.. oh boy. never seen in my life a storm have so many possible tracks
OMG you want me to show you?!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If this convection sustains and build more for a few more hours,then it will be classified at 5 AM.



Saludos desde Ponce

Im watching this one as always, now from the south of Puerto Rico...

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2579. emguy
We are probably getting closer to a tropical depression designation on 94L...

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Damn NCEP site picks the most opportune time to be a jackwagon and go down...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16854
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i use only to 120hr mark for guidance
to a max of 144 hr mark
after that reliability falls off big time
Ok, thanks for the tip.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
2576. air360
Quoting Clearwater1:
Why do you say that, looks like Miami at hour 153. Or should I be looking the the L, as opposed to the convection?


Miami was my next post - in the frame before the one showing it going right over Miami it appeared to be able to cross Key West...but yes, you are right - Directly over Miami
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Watch out wilmington nc this runs for you as a big one
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1342


This run is very similar to Cleo 1964
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I thought it was like Billy the Kid or Kid Rodelo... not an age designation... am I wrong?

Anybody remember that cartoon that somebody made back in '04 to illustrate the never-ending quality of the season for Floridians?

Some time in the 07 or 08 season... The blog was still quite small during Katrina, IIRC...

I'm thinking that period from Fay to Ike in '08 was about as ridiculous speed / post # wise as we've ever gotten.
2004 should not be thrown out with Charley, Ivan, Frances, and Jeanne all hitting Florida.  It was pretty hectic during that time as well.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16854
GFS trending east.. oh boy. never seen in my life a storm have so many possible tracks
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
2571. 7544
another south fl run and now as a hurricane
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2570. GetReal
Crawling up the Fl EC at 162 hours. IMO at this point there would be a great deal of uncertainty, especially with a system that is forecast to crawl around Cuba and Fl Straits.
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2569. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Clearwater1:
final? so the show is over, they canceled the rest of the storm?


i use only to 120hr mark for guidance
to a max of 144 hr mark
after that reliability falls off big time
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Quoting air360:
Welcome to Key West FL Sir Isaac Hurricane!
Why do you say that, looks like Miami at hour 153. Or should I be looking the the L, as opposed to the convection?
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2567. will40




wozer
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Looks like it stalled in the straits which is bad news for someone
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2565. air360
Welcome to Key West FL Sir Isaac Hurricane!
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Oh and by the way.... ARE YOU REALLY A KID lol?
I thought it was like Billy the Kid or Kid Rodelo... not an age designation... am I wrong?

Quoting hydrus:
..I was still picking my roof off the floor, and they said a possible cat-5 making landfall over S.W. Florida. I remember thinking if it hit, there would not even be a reason to go back, there would be nothing to go back to..I was already at my end, then Jeanne.
Anybody remember that cartoon that somebody made back in '04 to illustrate the never-ending quality of the season for Floridians?

Quoting will40:



Katrina i think
Some time in the 07 or 08 season... The blog was still quite small during Katrina, IIRC...

I'm thinking that period from Fay to Ike in '08 was about as ridiculous speed / post # wise as we've ever gotten.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
144hr final

final? so the show is over, they canceled the rest of the storm?
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2562. will40
GFS is seeing a stronger system on this run and thinking it will catch the weakness sooner
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Quoting Grothar:
Is the blog messed up. I want to "plus" you all and it won't let me.


Mine too. I seen the dude that did it but couldn't minus the post to correct it. I tried restarting, nuttin.
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2560. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
144hr final

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2559. GetReal
144 hours entering the Fl Straits

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2558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2557. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2556. GetReal
138

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2555. will40



still east and building
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2554. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2553. GetReal
132



WNW towards the FL Straits.
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Quoting will40:



def further east here at 126hrs


Yep. Looked like it started pulling NE at that point.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
If they fly out of Antigua, they might as well use USVI...

Ah, I knew that would be a useful question.... lol... has he posted anything new since then? Haven't been over there in a while...

Actually, I think they used to stage out of there pretty regularly at the time, IIRC... I'm thinking somebody from Barbados actually talked about that on the blog...

Wow... saw that just before I came back to the computer... lol

He should have waited until a few more model runs. This one look like it't way east of the others.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
2550. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2549. Grothar
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Im still hoping a Tropical Storm can find its way to Sooo Cal,water temps in at San Diego area beaches are running 72-76. I know thats someways below the threshhold,but it might be able to maintain itself a bit longer if the temps were mid 70's instead of mid 60's. Just wishful thinking I guess.
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2547. Gearsts
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is there some kind of TUTT NE of PR???

Yes and is possible the models dont see this well and it could help slow down the system as it enters the carb.
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2546. GetReal
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Quoting mynameispaul:


probably 2005 katrina/rita but it was pretty crazy with Irene last year.


Katrina in the weekend before final landfall, Rita, Wilma while undergoing rapid deepening and then after striking the Yucatan, Ernesto 2006 (a total circus and ridiculous hype-fest), Dean 2007, Gustav/Ike 2008, Irene 2011
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I noticed that during the run so far the l stays with the convection, but around cuba, the convection moves east of the low. hmm
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2543. will40



def further east here at 126hrs
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Quoting pottery:

They will probably refuel in the Islands anyway.
They often fly out of Barbados, but this time maybe Antigua?
If they fly out of Antigua, they might as well use USVI...

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....From comments under RandyB's blog when they were flying to Ernesto....


The Hurricane Hunters area of operation, as defined by the National Hurricane Operations Plan, includes storms from 55W in the mid-Atlantic to about 155W in the eastern Pacific. As a storm approaches 55W in the Atlantic, NHC will task the Hurricane Hunters to begin flying. St. Croix is considered a forward opoerating location for storms in the mid-Atlantic. If a storm threatens St. Croix while they are operating there, they often evacuate to either Barbados or Homestead, FL.
Ah, I knew that would be a useful question.... lol... has he posted anything new since then? Haven't been over there in a while...

Quoting pottery:

Yes, St. Croix is a 'first choice' for obvious reasons. No personal documents needed to leave the airport etc .
But Barbados is sometimes used, depending on how far south the system is.

Dr. Masters flew out of Barbados when he went into Hugo, for instance.
Actually, I think they used to stage out of there pretty regularly at the time, IIRC... I'm thinking somebody from Barbados actually talked about that on the blog...

Quoting weatherman12345:
Jim Cantore just said that he is confident in a Florida Hit but uncertain about the intensity
Wow... saw that just before I came back to the computer... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
2541. isuxn2
Why no 11:00 update.
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2540. Gearsts
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2539. SLU
Quoting SLU:


Heavily forested but they still came down in massive landslides. We got 26 inches (660mm) of rain in 23 hours during the passage of TOMAS. That's 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. Can't begin to imagine what that kind of rain would do to Trinidad.



Excerpt from the NHC cyclone report:

"Tomas produced phenomenal rainfall in St. Lucia, with totals ranging from 21 to 25 inches and a
maximum total of 26.3 inches from Desraches over about a 23-h period."
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Quoting GetReal:
78 hours and this run is a little more realistic with a strengthening system south of Haiti coast.


NOT A GOOD NEWS FOR HAITI
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2537. air360
whoa a bit of a north jog at 120hrs...maybe trying to shoot the East side this time???
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Is there some kind of TUTT NE of PR???

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep, my lights were flickering on and off and I had to drive through it on Walsingham Road, for a second there I was driving by instinct as I could not see from the torrential rain and wind.



Yeah it actually caught me off guard a little, I expected us to see some thunderstorms tonight, I didn't think we would see them that strong, lol.


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2534. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2533. will40
looks like he is further east on this run sofar
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2532. bappit
It is after midnight for 94L. Filled in with some convection particularly south of the center. There are some arc clouds north and west of the center, barely visible on the IR. Looks like some shear on the northeast. The convection on the southeast has faded and refired closer to the center. It is probably right on the cusp of being declared a TD. We'll see if the convection holds or not though dmin is in its favor.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
2531. SLU
Quoting DDR:

Were those hillsides forest or deforested,but still that must have been some crazy rain.


Heavily forested but they still came down in massive landslides. We got 26 inches (660mm) of rain in 23 hours during the passage of TOMAS. That's 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. Can't begin to imagine what that kind of rain would do to Trinidad.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.