Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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2631. Gearsts
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
94L/TD9 is really starting to feel the start of D-MAX

looking really good I'd say the the LLCOC is near 14.9N 50.0W moving WSW still

I 'd say advisory start at 5am for sure maybe even start early and do it at 2am
i'll say 15.2n.
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Wow... I been calling GA for a while now, but I gotta say seriously, I wasn't expecting that kinda track...

Amazing.
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2629. emguy
We are probably going to see the models are going to have small shifts back and forth from east to west, or west to east on each run, but generally, when considering the extended period we are looking at, models such as the GFS have been pretty consistent with this one from run to run in the general thinking...it's just those slight nudges back and forth rsult in major differences in the types of impacts that may occur...ranging from an east gulf storm to and east coast of US storm.
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2628. Grothar
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Make it stop-LOL


You're right.

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I say TD at 5 looking good with sufficient thunderstorm activity.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


FL is a different animal, especially on a N track. Lord, "slight" deviations could send it up the east or the west coast.
That's the case with this hole scenario.  A slight west shift sends it towards Apalachicola, a slight E shift sends it over open water up towards the Carolinas.  Sticking with this is going to be an Apalachicola to OBX storm.  How strong and how much of that area feels it's impacts is the real unknown.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15935
Quoting AussieStorm:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


Is this Tuesday or Wednesday? I get confused with the time delays. 3 planes.... that's a lot of data collection and processing.


It's Tuesday 12:48 AM Eastern Daylight Time
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2624. will40
Quoting ILikeIke:
can somebody tell me is north carolina out of the woods yet?




too early to tell right now. just keep an eye on the updates
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Joe Bastardi is posting that the track of 94L could be analogous to Cleo from 1964.
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Quoting StormJunkie:

2004 should not be thrown out with Charley, Ivan, Frances, and Jeanne all hitting Florida.  It was pretty hectic during that time as well.
But Doc started the blog, IIRC, in '05. I know we had a lot of activity then, but I think membership grew so much between then and '08 that we really didn't see the phenomenal numbers blogwise until then... was it during Ike where we got to 50 commments every 8 minutes or something?

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Quoting wxchaser97:
An early/late forecast, I'll have a blog later today.


94L is singing....

Georgia, Georgia,
The whole day through
Just an old sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind


I'm say Georgia
Georgia
A song of you
Comes as sweet and clear
As moonlight through the pines

Other arms reach out to me
Other eyes smile tenderly
Still in peaceful dreams I see
The road leads back to you

I said Georgia,
Ooh Georgia, no peace I find
Just an old sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind

Other arms reach out to me
Other eyes smile tenderly
Still in peaceful dreams I see
The road leads back to you

Georgia,
Georgia,
No peace, no peace I find
Just this old, sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind

I said just an old sweet song,
Keeps Georgia on my mind


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GFS

Grothar's Flying Spaghetti model...
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Quoting ILikeIke:
can somebody tell me is north carolina out of the woods yet?


No.
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2618. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2614. AussieStorm 4:46 AM GMT on August 21, 2012

21st is Tuesday (UTC)
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Convection concentrating more towards the center, today could be the day Isaac is born.

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Quoting Grothar:
Look what finally came up

Ummmmmmm.......... Im not gonna ask!
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


Is this Tuesday or Wednesday? I get confused with the time delays. 3 planes.... that's a lot of data collection and processing.
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94L/TD9 is really starting to feel the start of D-MAX

looking really good I'd say the the LLCOC is near 14.9N 50.0W moving WSW still

I 'd say advisory start at 5am for sure maybe even start early and do it at 2am
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11276
Quoting emguy:


Looks like we were thinking the same thing at the same time! :)


FL is a different animal, especially on a N track. Lord, "slight" deviations could send it up the east or the west coast.
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Quoting StormJunkie:

Yep, that brief stall over GA helped knock it down some at least, but still that is a close call for man and a hop over the pond here or there instead of a hop over land here or there could make all the difference in the world in what kind of intensity people see.  That's a nightmare of a run...Luckily, the GFS is still pretty convinced that 94  si going to have to do serious battle with some mountains...


Yeah. Looked pretty bad. :( Hopefully it will keep trending east and go out to sea.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


lol. I was about to have withdrawals. :)


I have Ad Block & No Script and for some reason the plus thing doesn't work. Some features on this site have never worked.

Sorry if I don't plus anyone.
And I can't see if people are minusing me.
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Starts to weaken after this. Moving NE

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An early/late forecast, I'll have a blog later today.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Oh boy. An east coast crawler.

Yep, that brief stall over GA helped knock it down some at least, but still that is a close call for man and a hop over the pond here or there instead of a hop over land here or there could make all the difference in the world in what kind of intensity people see.  That's a nightmare of a run...Luckily, the GFS is still pretty convinced that 94  si going to have to do serious battle with some mountains...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15935
Quoting Gearsts:
Yes and is possible the models dont see this well and it could help slow down the system as it enters the carb.
That might be what is interfering w/ intensification S of PR....

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
144hr final

Hmmm... that period 120 - 144 hrs brings the low right into that sweet spot I've been talking about all summer... and models imply massive blowup of related convection over the Bahamas...

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Mine too. I seen the dude that did it but couldn't minus the post to correct it. I tried restarting, nuttin.
Which post is it? U can always go to the Classic site and minus it there. But I've found minusing a screwed-up post can make things worse. Sometimes u have to ignore the person until the page turns...
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Quoting Funication:
Link

Africa is lit up


Make it stop-LOL
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Georgia on my mind...
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2603. emguy
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Truthfully the distance from west to east FL is rather minimal and would be considered as a tolerance.


Looks like we were thinking the same thing at the same time! :)
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2602. Gearsts
Quoting TopWave:
This developing track of 94L is shaping up very similar to what Irene did last year almost to the day. Models have begun an eastward trend it seems following the weakness and steering currents.
Agree and a possible DR hit seems more likely.
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Oh boy. An east coast crawler.

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.
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Quoting emguy:
We are probably getting closer to a tropical depression designation on 94L...



yep
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11276
2598. TopWave
This developing track of 94L is shaping up very similar to what Irene did last year almost to the day. Models have begun an eastward trend it seems following the weakness and steering currents.
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2597. emguy
GFS certainly went robust on this run...which is interesting considering the previous run took it more toward western Cuba which is flat, versus this run moving over very rugged terrain in eastern Cuba.

Generally speaking the track shift in the end of run is probably on about 125-150 miles which isn't much. The curiosity about a storm like this, which parallels the spine of Florida, is the slightest difference in timing on the turn is the difference between a West Florida Storm and an East Florida Storm. In ralation to a possible track 6-7 days out...Florida is a very narrow target within a much wider error cone.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


This run is very similar to Cleo 1964
Would be hard for any run to get any closer to an exact replica.  Yes, there are a few minor differences, but they are very very minor.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15935
Quoting floridaboy14:
GFS trending east.. oh boy. never seen in my life a storm have so many possible tracks



Truthfully the distance from west to east FL is rather minimal and would be considered as a tolerance.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
the trend is the friend and it says further east
We'll see if the next run trends even further east, stays put, or comes back west.
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Link

Africa is lit up
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Jacksonville twice in one year getting hit! Hard enough for it to get hit once in 100 years let alone twice in one year.
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Quoting serialteg:


Saludos desde Ponce

Im watching this one as always, now from the south of Puerto Rico...



Saludos desde Santurce.
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the trend is the friend and it says further east
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Georgia

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Quoting 954FtLCane:


This run is very similar to Cleo 1964


You've been posting this for a couple days now and duly noted. Could very well transpire.
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2587. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Personal thoughts looking at JSL loops. 94L is currently pulling in a MLC that has been sitting in the SE Quad. Currently @ 14.5N 47.5W heading rapidly WNW. Enlightening on the post from Dr. Masters earlier about pulling in the moisture from the SE, I believe 94L is in the process of completing the task. I believe that this MLC has been plaguing the NE quad in pulling down dry air and as this circulation moves closer to the center we should see the NE fill in with convection overnight.


That is about as good an explanation as I've seen. I'm going to give a little synopsis before I turn in which will be soon.
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Wow, could we be looking at a potential Georgia landfall? When was the last time THAT happened?
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Up the East Coast of FL. on this run, now at JAX.



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Personal thoughts looking at JSL loops. 94L is currently pulling in a MLC that has been sitting in the SE Quad. Currently @ 14.5N 47.5W heading rapidly WNW. Enlightening on the post from Dr. Masters earlier about pulling in the moisture from the SE, I believe 94L is in the process of completing the task. I believe that this MLC has been plaguing the NE quad in pulling down dry air and as this circulation moves closer to the center we should see the NE fill in with convection overnight.
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2583. will40



174 a Joe B runner
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YU UH OH.

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2581. Gearsts
Quoting floridaboy14:
GFS trending east.. oh boy. never seen in my life a storm have so many possible tracks
OMG you want me to show you?!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.