Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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GMT (UTC) - 4hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2680. will40
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


wilmington n.c. here...this one is looking very interesting!!!!


yes the last run is disturbing for sure
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96L looks like another possible threat to land in the long-range.
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Hé Gro, pensez-vous que ce chiot finira par frapper les Etats-Unis quelque part ? Si oui, quel est la première lettre de ce déclare ?
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2677. jonelu
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What happened to Lefty? I have fond memories of those years.

Me too!
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Quoting will40:



Good to see another Tarheel here


wilmington n.c. here...this one is looking very interesting!!!!
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2675. will40
Quoting ILikeIke:
@will40 lol sorry cant do that quote thing phone's bein an @$$. i live by the outer banks


no prob welcome to the blog
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What happened to Lefty? I have fond memories of those years.
No idea...Don't know where to find that A-hole.  Have an outdated number for him, but pretty sure it si out dated.  Now, that A-hole knows exactly where to find us on the other hand!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting Gearsts:
i'll say 15.2n.


yeah maybe about 2-3 hours ago I would agree with you

Quoting ackee:
DO u think WSW movment will change model current track of 94L

yes I do and I was expecting this

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Well I don't know what the nhc needs to see. I think we have Isaac.


I think it is doing what NHC wants to see increase in convection so we will have advisorys for TD 9 soon

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Why? Unless something drastic happens to the center such as a relocation, the GFS track seems like a reasonable one and has support from the Euro, GFDL, and HWRF at least through 5 days.


models change.. you can go out to 5 days if you want..but since it will be so close to hispaniola..it could interact with it in 4-5 days.
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2671. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What happened to Lefty? I have fond memories of those years.


He left.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
2670. will40
Quoting mcluvincane:


Bout a 40 minute ride to emerald isle from here. Just played some golf at star hill last week



Good to see another Tarheel here
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Quoting 7544:
moving fast tho closing in on the islands looking good at this hour they may have a bump up at 2 am and call it at 5 am imo
42 hrs. until it hits the islands according to the GFS, so yeah if the convection continues to persist near the center they should call it and get the warnings out.
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For the recon the numbers next to the C are the takeoff time and date in utc time. The numbers next to A is the time they expect to enter the storm
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Quoting scottsvb:
I wouldn't look past 72hrs right now on 94L.. models will adjust as time goes by.
But they will likely adjust within that Apalachicola to OBX zone...And I think we all understand that at this point.  Could it maybe on a long shot get outside that box either side?  Sure there is a slight risk of that.  5-10%
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok let me help you out

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 21/1530Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


What time East coast US time is the flights? 12hrs?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
So I went back and found the first blog titled "Katrina a threat to NO"

1179 posts (roughly)

And since you made me go back and look at that y'all have to suffer with me damn it!  I miss the man...




What happened to Lefty? I have fond memories of those years.
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2662. 7544
moving fast tho closing in on the islands looking good at this hour they may have a bump up at 2 am and call it at 5 am imo
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Quoting will40:


ok Emerald Isle here


Bout a 40 minute ride to emerald isle from here. Just played some golf at star hill last week
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Zooming out a bit. That is a big freakin' "S"

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Quoting scottsvb:
Don't look past 72hrs right now
Why? Unless something drastic happens to the center such as a relocation, the GFS track seems like a reasonable one and has support from the Euro, GFDL, and HWRF at least through 5 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So I went back and found the first blog titled "Katrina a threat to NO"

1179 posts (roughly)

And since you made me go back and look at that y'all have to suffer with me damn it!  I miss the man...


Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok let me help you out

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 21/1530Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


How does holding things help
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I wouldn't look past 72hrs right now on 94L.. models will adjust as time goes by.
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2655. will40
Quoting mcluvincane:


Richlands, nc here west of Jacksonville


ok Emerald Isle here
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Well I don't know what the nhc needs to see. I think we have Isaac.


that last frame has a burst right over the COC...this is for sure the best its looked i expect steady but slow strengthning from her on out because its such a large circulation until land interaction.
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The thinking is still there for the GFS shows a weak Ridge at 102 hrs. when the storm is weak, but still enough to pull it ever so slightly towards the north and builds it back by between 168-192 hrs. Now whether this is an east coast, spine of FL., or Eastern Gulf threat we will not know until it makes that turn, could come at 75 W or could come later at 80 W which makes all the difference in the world in who takes the brunt at least down the road.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Or 120 miles east, more or less over Andros, Nassau, G. Bahama and Abaco....


Exactly, east coast track would give you guys the worst.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


Is this Tuesday or Wednesday? I get confused with the time delays. 3 planes.... that's a lot of data collection and processing.


ok let me help you out

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 21/1530Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.

TUESDAY
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Don't look past 72hrs right now
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Quoting will40:


what part of NC are you?


Richlands, nc here west of Jacksonville
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Evenin'/Mornin' ya'll

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Well I don't know what the nhc needs to see. I think we have Isaac.
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Our "S" has been looking lackluster all day. Starting to make out an "S" as the MLC nears closer to the COC. It's go time IMO @ 5am...

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... I been calling GA for a while now, but I gotta say seriously, I wasn't expecting that kinda track...

Amazing.
That area has a better shield than Tampa...I would be shocked!  Don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting the possibility...Only stating what my reaction to it would be.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
2644. 7544
anyone know how strong the gfs showed on the so fl landfall tia waiting for the euro next
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Quoting Grothar:


Convection beginning to wrap around from the South. Good sign.


For Whom,Oh Most Wisest One?
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2642. will40
Quoting ILikeIke:
k


what part of NC are you?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
But Doc started the blog, IIRC, in '05. I know we had a lot of activity then, but I think membership grew so much between then and '08 that we really didn't see the phenomenal numbers blogwise until then... was it during Ike where we got to 50 commments every 8 minutes or something?

Yes, I agree.  That said, the handful of locals did post like crazy during those Katrina, Rita, Jeane, Charley, etc event.  Surely couldn't keep up with 50 comments in 8 min though I don't think.  Although, I may have posted a certain flood map and terror story regarding a certain bowl of a city 50 times in 8 minutes ;)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Oh great, NJ is in the forecast of DOOM again!!! Please go away Isaac! Irene's little brother is not welcome here!
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
2639. ackee
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
94L/TD9 is really starting to feel the start of D-MAX

looking really good I'd say the the LLCOC is near 14.9N 50.0W moving WSW still

I 'd say advisory start at 5am for sure maybe even start early and do it at 2am
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
94L/TD9 is really starting to feel the start of D-MAX

looking really good I'd say the the LLCOC is near 14.9N 50.0W moving WSW still

I 'd say advisory start at 5am for sure maybe even start early and do it at 2am
DO u think WSW movment will change model current track of 94L
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


FL is a different animal, especially on a N track. Lord, "slight" deviations could send it up the east or the west coast.
Or 120 miles east, more or less over Andros, Nassau, G. Bahama and Abaco....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Grothar:


You're right.



Oh no!!! (In my Mr. Bill voice)
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2635. TopWave
The big setback for this storm will be land interaction from high terrains of the islands. The less land interaction, the more powerful the storm. Vice Versa. This storm could really blow up if land interaction is minimal. As far as track, too early to tell. But FL to Carolinas need to watch this one. I anticipate "future" Issac will also grow in size.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


Is this Tuesday or Wednesday? I get confused with the time delays. 3 planes.... that's a lot of data collection and processing.


One flight to 95L tomorrow

One flight to 94L tomorrow plus one flight On Wednesday.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I say TD at 5 looking good with sufficient thunderstorm activity.
Agree the TWO will drop the hint if it says, near 100%.
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2632. Grothar
Central Africa

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
2631. Gearsts
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
94L/TD9 is really starting to feel the start of D-MAX

looking really good I'd say the the LLCOC is near 14.9N 50.0W moving WSW still

I 'd say advisory start at 5am for sure maybe even start early and do it at 2am
i'll say 15.2n.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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