Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh. Then. Yes...

(RECORD)2005: 5

Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee

2012: 6(Maybe 7 or 8, by the end of the month, model indicated)
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
(96L) Joyce?
Kirk?

2011: Broke the record then...7
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
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4030. WxLogic
Here's a recently updated HH schedule for tomorrow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211431
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 21 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 22/1800Z, 23/0000Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLOME B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 22/1600Z C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.7N 60.0W D. 15.9N 61.5W
E. 22/1730Z TO 23/0000Z E. 22/2130 TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0609A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W D. 16.2N 64.6W
E. 23/0530Z TO 23/1200Z E. 23/0900Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
21/1600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/0930Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
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4029. emcf30
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The center could be farther SW than most think.

Microwave imagery doesn't lie.



Agreed-- Lots of peeps don't think this is very significant. It only takes a little change in latitude where TD9 is located for it to have implications 5 days or so down the road as to where future Issac threatens, or does not threaten land, no matter when it starts to feel the weakness the GFS depicts or not. Infact, since last night, best track showed a south of due West movement and the IR also suggested a more southerly component movement also.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
4028. LargoFl
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh. Then. Yes...

2005: 6
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee

2012: 6(Maybe 7, by the end of the month, model indicated)
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
(96L) Joyce?
Gert formed in July.

Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
I'm forecasting a blog from Doc. Masters sometime this morning, stay tuned.And the band played on.
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Meanwhile.. A "rare" winter-like squall line is developing the the GOM. May see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Peninsula later today.

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The 12UTC NAM has TD9 heading towards southwest Puerto Rico on a WNW heading.

As much as people like to knock it, it's not that bad at getting synoptic scale conditions correct - like the ridging that determines steering...
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting Gearsts:
Nope that shows the high weakening and moving NE the flow is more west and i won't be surprise if the TD move wnw later today.Thats why TD 9 has slow down a bit.

I agree with the slow down part...
That's also why the Anticyclone ran out ahead of Isaac and is putting a little bit of northerly shear on it.
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Quoting Gramma1948:
I talked to my Grandkids this morning, they are going to keep a look out for me, they said its too far out to really know where its going yet.
They're correct. Just keep the eye on this :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
Quoting WxLogic:
A little 12Z NAM @45HR action to hopefully refocus some conversations:



I love the NAM !!!!!!!! But of course what it is showing will not happen :(
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4020. LargoFl
be careful at the beaches on the gulf coast today...........COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS CREATING BREAKING WAVES OR 2 TO 3 FEET ALONG AREA
BEACHES PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

FLZ050-220000-
/O.CON.KTBW.BH.S.0010.120821T1600Z-120822T0000Z/
PINELLAS-
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* HAZARDS...RIP CURRENTS.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SAR ASOTA...
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.

* POTENTIAL IMPACTS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT TO
ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS RIP
CURRENTS...LONGSHORE CURRENTS...SNEAKER WAVES AND OTHER HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO
THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR
NEAR THE WATER.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC OR
ATTEMPT TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS
ACROSS THE RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY
FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE
BEACH.

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE =CHMBHS

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey I'm not bashing at all as i just didn't agree with the track he posted. It was really off base from what the models where saying that's all. The track he had was in between the Bahamas and Bermuda when the GFS and Euro were over FL.


A track posted by ANYONE on here can change from hour to hour or day to day, if someone says something one day doesnt mean the pattern cant change and then they cant change their track later, the NHC does! Doesnt mean they were wrong or right... OMG
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4018. GetReal
With a system moving as quickly as td9, an unexpected extended move towards the WSW would quickly throw the system out of the short term official track.
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4017. aquak9
Is the Euro an outlier?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey a Seminoles fan is a friend of mine. Noles should be right there this year in regards to be a top five team.

Euro Ensembles just in case the blog missed it.
That would suggest a further recurve N or NNE into W Fla, then up the East Coast. if that was to turn out. That western ridge looks too strong to pull it NW'rd  to anywhere W of NOLA/MS, and it looks like the A/B ridge, while pretty strong, seems to be retreating a bit, creating a weakness over FL.

On the other hand, with more time over water, and plenty of E Gulf storm fuel, if that Euro path pans out, Florida is royally SCREWED. As in, Charley/Donna/David SCREWED.

But, still a long way to go, and the Euro is still the western outlier. Stay tuned...

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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's hard to believe it, but forecast tracks at 5 days have improved radically since 2005, at least partially because of storms like Katrina, Rita, and the others of the 2005 season. I'm pretty sure the 5-day margin of error the NHC gives still allows for just about anything to happen beyond that point. But a clustered forecast this early suggests to me that the most likely solution will bring this system somewhere near or over FL.

Nevertheless, I do agree with you; interests along the US coast should monitor the progress of the system, since a FL landfall does not in any way rule at a later, supplementary landfall...

Thanks bah a, that's what I was trying to say, you really never know what a storm is gonna do, they have a mind of their own. I just think everyone focuses on the models way to much before we even have good concrete data from recon. I just want everyone to stay on there toes and be prepared, this is mother nature we are dealing with. Back to lurking
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Quoting Grothar:
Good video from 28Storms



Thanks Grothar...excellent video....forecast.
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Quoting Gorty:


No. I am talking about how many named storms the month had, not what letter of the alphabet it got to :p

Oh. Then. Yes...

2005: 6
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee

2012: 6(Maybe 7, by the end of the month, model indicated)
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
(96L) Joyce?
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4012. TXCWC
Quoting Bluestorm5:
For the last time, Euro is an outlier...


He is not talking about the operational model
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4011. hydrus
Quoting Gearsts:
Anti cyclone a little out of place and the center is getting shear abit from the north thats why the coc is almost exposed at 14.9n or 15n.
Starting to get that ominous look tho. Here we go again with a potentially devastating storm that will hit somewhere before going away. Outflow is funky at best, but will change soon as will shear values..
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Models closing in on the East Coast of Florida this morning..
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4009. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




Hurricane Field Program Update – Monday, August 20, 2012 6:06 PM Eastern


OPERATIONS

NOAA-P-3s

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012
NOAA-42: Will ferry from MacDill to Barbados. The scheduled take-off is 14 UTC (10AM).
No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2012
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 2000 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Thursday, Aug 23, 2012
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.


Can always count on Nrt... to clarify these out.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just saying I get little annoyed with trolls shouting SW, SW, SW without proof. That's all :)

from 15.2 to 15.0 is only about 12 miles. not a big deal at all. not gonna change the path it takes.
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This place will be ugly soon... at least I won't be on here all day long.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
4005. junie1
Quoting CaribBoy:


Lool I see you read my desperate comments on here!! Well I'm on St Maarten.. 18N 63W. So help me please draging the storm northward lol
lol sounds good im at 18.3 65 in st thomas trust ill do my best wouldnt mind some good rain and some gusty winds but look out 96L
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


No offense but Levi forecasted TD 09 yesterday to travel just west of Bermuda. I mean really. The guy was so far off base it was unreal.

uh... suggest u actually look at his blog... he had a really ANNOYING forecast w/ 94L passing right over Nassau... which is NOT the same as Bermuda....

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just something to keep in mind...

Those who want to see a strong system (regardless of the end result) should root for the southern route.

If this crosses the spine of Hispaniola, it opens a whole can of worms.

As always, I will only post analysis on what I see and nothing more.

No bias, no bull

The decrease in latitude now might be key to further land interaction further in its path. If keeps riding the 15 degree line it will miss most of the mountaionus terrian.
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4002. WxLogic
A little 12Z NAM @45HR action to hopefully refocus some conversations:

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4001. Gearsts
Quoting GetReal:




TD9 is embedded in a serious steering layer that probably has the system moving WSW in access of 20 MPH.

IMO
Nope that shows the high weakening and moving NE the flow is more west and i won't be surprise if the TD move wnw later today.Thats why TD 9 has slow down a bit.
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3999. ncstorm
NHC-

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER GFS MODEL AND SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL.
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3998. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
09L/TD/XX/CX
MARK
14.91N/52.89W
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Quoting kmanislander:


Or have more of a bend if the NHC concludes that the short term motion to the WSW will reverse itself prior to entering the Caribbean. They may still keep the cone pretty much where it is at the end of the forecast period for the time being or make a slight shift at 11 pending HH data


maybe

Quoting Gearsts:
Anti cyclone a little out of place and the center is getting shear abit from the north thats why the coc is almost exposed at 14.9n or 15n.


LLCOC is not almost exposed just the NE LL bands

Quoting stormpetrol:
TD9 is going to be a headscratcher!


you got that right i guess

Quoting driftwoodswfl:

What makes you think the cone will shift south? Haven't models started to shift north?


models hav not see the movement SW and was not forecasting that so hopefull on the next run it will show it

but yeah cone should shift S and W and later the models should shift S and W as well
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Would they be moving another plane into place to keep the flights going 24hrs?




Hurricane Field Program Update – Monday, August 20, 2012 6:06 PM Eastern


OPERATIONS

NOAA-P-3s

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012
NOAA-42: Will ferry from MacDill to Barbados. The scheduled take-off is 14 UTC (10AM).
No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2012
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 2000 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Thursday, Aug 23, 2012
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.
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Quoting MahFL:
According to this map there is shear of about 13 kt from the NE.



Think about an anticyclonic flow.

That makes absolutely no sense.

FWIW...

I'd stick with CIMSS shear analysis. Obviously, it's what the NHC uses.
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3993. keisa90
Link

From the Navy site. Looks just under 15
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3992. Gearsts
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey I'm not bashing at all as i just didn't agree with the track he posted. It was really off base from what the models where saying that's all. The track he had was in between the Bahamas and Bermuda when the GFS and Euro were over FL.
I guess you are in a bad mood today just like yesterday, you sound like a jealous kid.
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Quoting Gorty:
Once Issac forms and even if Joyce does or does not form in August, will 2012 be the second most (or tie 2005) active August on record?
8 formed in both 1933 and 2004. 5 formed in 2005. If Isaac and Joyce form, we will have had 6 named storms in August.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No offense but Levi forecasted TD 09 yesterday to travel just west of Bermuda. I mean really. The guy was so far off base it was unreal.



Jealous much? He never said just west of Bermuda, but even so that could still happen. There's no room in forecasting for ego's of any type. Been there seen that, never ends well...or with good eyesight, or with pretty toe nails...

Morning all ;)

So stayed up long enough to see 09 get its convection together last night. Will be interesting to see what the models say the next four runs with an organized system and data getting fed in to them. Now we should begin to get a refinement of that Apalachicola to OBX cone.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
Quoting 69Viking:


Just look at the last two NHC forecast points for your proof. At 5 am it was at 15.2 N and at 8 am it was 15.1N. Slightly South of West would be a correct statement for it's current path, we'll see what the next update brings but my guess it will be even further South.
I'm just saying I get little annoyed with trolls shouting SW, SW, SW without proof. That's all :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897
3987. MahFL
According to this map there is shear of about 13 kt from the NE.

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Quoting scooster67:


how long is the blog going to put up with this TROLL?


The bunker is next door and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting junie1:
lol yow caribboy were are you located i know you love a good storm


Lool I see you read my desperate comments on here!! Well I'm on St Maarten.. 18N 63W. So help me please draging the storm northward lol
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Quoting Michfan:
The average margin of error for forecasts greater than 5 days out is 500 miles for the models. You can't expect any of us to do any better than that, hence why there is a cone for tracks. Some of you tend to forget this all too often. Look at Charley. It was forecast to hit Tampa dead on then took a sharp turn right into Punta Gorda which suprised everyone.


You are right but Punta Gorda was in the cone..Anytime you are in the cone or right outside of it you should expect that you will feel the effects.
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3983. Gorty
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Remember. 2005 ended August with Katrina.
We would have to have 95L and 96L form to Tie.
And at this time. 95L is not going to form.


No. I am talking about how many named storms the month had, not what letter of the alphabet it got to :p
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Now there is a proof of WSW movement...


Just look at the last two NHC forecast points for your proof. At 5 am it was at 15.2 N and at 8 am it was 15.1N. Slightly South of West would be a correct statement for it's current path, we'll see what the next update brings but my guess it will be even further South.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just something to keep in mind...

Those who want to see a strong system (regardless of the end result) should root for the southern route.

If this crosses the spine of Hispaniola, it opens a whole can of worms.

As always, I will only post analysis on what I see and nothing more.

No bias, no bull
Thank you for staying true.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7897

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.