Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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I wonder if they'll do this at 2am. No doubt now this is a td.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
2730. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:


while that scenario may leave the center intact, it will most certainly cause another bout of devastating flooding and landslides/mudslides for the mountainous area of Haiti.


Yes, that is what I am afraid of. Even if it were not a hurricane, a depression or a TS could do more harm. They just cannot take it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Grothar:


F


Merci!
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Quoting will40:


well there is zoo our location map lady. Nice to see you


Nice to see you too! Been a while since I stayed up for the 2 am update.
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2727. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Maria.. se fue... lol


I wonder how long it would take you. Boy, Baha, in the old days you would have picked right up on that. Actually I was on here in 2005 but under another name.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Grothar:


It would be terrible for Haiti if that were to happen. I do not think it is really and outlier scenario. I believe more model agreement will bring this much closer or even over the Hispaniola.

The very latest GFS has it moving over the southern Isthmus of Haiti.



while that scenario may leave the center intact, it will most certainly cause another bout of devastating flooding and landslides/mudslides for the mountainous area of Haiti.
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Quoting Grothar:


It looks like it's starting. Kind of reminds me of Cleo.


Just as long as they don't hastily dump the lake again. Man that ruined the eco in the Indian river for several years.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
2724. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Well you died last year so your on a renewal right, so it's all good for another hundred or so?


Dying can be very overdone sometimes. Don't want to go through it again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting NJcat3cane:
my cuz is getting married on a private island near coco beach fl this friday im flying in on thursday until tuesday next week..hows my weather looking for my trip?


You want to stay tuned, it could get hairy for the weekend or the beginning of next week. The wedding should go on as planned and so should your arrival.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep, riding that 15 N line:



No its S of 15N right under that blob of convection
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11052
2721. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's on for sure.



It looks like it's starting. Kind of reminds me of Cleo.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Grothar:


He left.
Maria.. se fue... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting Grothar:


Seems like forever


Well you died last year so your on a renewal right, so it's all good for another hundred or so?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Well I don't know what the nhc needs to see. I think we have Isaac.


Is that the dreaded red color near the center....looks like he could be off to the races.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
So I went back and found the first blog titled "Katrina a threat to NO"

1179 posts (roughly)

And since you made me go back and look at that y'all have to suffer with me damn it!  I miss the man...


Wow... I didn't remember him using that image while I was here... lol

Gotta admit, lefty was the best... one of the few on here that could make u cussing mad one minute and agree w/ him the next... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
my cuz is getting married on a private island near coco beach fl this friday im flying in on thursday until tuesday next week..hows my weather looking for my trip?
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
2715. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


You really have been around a while haven't you?


Seems like forever
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Pretty safe to say that this is no Ernesto for those in the Leewards.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
2713. will40
Quoting zoomiami:
Sad that you have to stay up until 1 am for the sane conversations.

However, the earlier days of the blogs certainly had colorful characters.


well there is zoo our location map lady. Nice to see you
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4110
2712. Grothar
Quoting KoritheMan:
For now I agree with the model consensus in taking the system toward Florida or the east coast. However, the fly in the ointment will be interaction with Hispaniola, which could cause a center reformation if the system slows down enough over the mountains. That would potentially cause a substantial track change. I would consider that an outlier scenario for now, though.


It would be terrible for Haiti if that were to happen. I do not think it is really and outlier scenario. I believe more model agreement will bring this much closer or even over the Hispaniola.

The very latest GFS has it moving over the southern Isthmus of Haiti.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wow convection blowing up over the center


It's on for sure.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Sad that you have to stay up until 1 am for the sane conversations.

However, the earlier days of the blogs certainly had colorful characters.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wow convection blowing up over the center
Yep, riding that 15 N line:

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Definitly is feeling the Warm water and the heat content,and is a masive storm remember the principal damage in a storm is the rain, im nervous with haiti thousands of people living outdoors
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Quoting StormJunkie:

No falling out at all; quite the contrary...He just fell of the face of blogging and no way to stay in touch now.  That picture of him was taken during Ophelia the crazy looper lady.  He was actually suppose to come to Charleston and we were going to chase here; but then she got a last second order that she was to go to the OBX.  Would have been my only chance to officially meet him.

We were pretty good friends.  Hang out here when any new data was coming out, pour over it, and then get a couple games of Halo on xbox until the next set of data came out.


Yeah I remember that pic and then some issue with his "Hiney".
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
2706. will40
Quoting mynameispaul:
Models should improve as the storm matures right?



yes when they get a center fix to establish
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4110
Wow convection blowing up over the center
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Can't wait to see what the 2am TWO looks like, they might say they'll start issuing advisories at 5am.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting mynameispaul:
Models should improve as the storm matures right?
Yes and also once the hurricane hunters sample the area and feed it into the models.
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Models should improve as the storm matures right?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Didn't know yall had such a falling out.
No falling out at all; quite the contrary...He just fell of the face of blogging and no way to stay in touch now.  That picture of him was taken during Ophelia the crazy looper lady.  He was actually suppose to come to Charleston and we were going to chase here; but then she got a last second order that she was to go to the OBX.  Would have been my only chance to officially meet him.

We were pretty good friends.  Hang out here when any new data was coming out, pour over it, and then get a couple games of Halo on xbox until the next set of data came out.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15645
Quoting emguy:
One interesting point of note...Notice the expanse of the circulation envelope. It is actually larger than the entire state of Florida. LINK

That's actually important, because when these large expansive systems turn into a weakness, they tend to do so more gradually, as compared to smaller systems, which are more inclined to pull a hard right into the weakness. On that basis, I would expect that when this system turns into the break in the ridge, it will be a gradual bend in track...The GFS has been portraying this relatively well over the last few days. Although, this run was slightly more progressivee in the recurve...and may have been slightly over done, but only slightly if so.

The next few days of tracking will be interesting.

Do you think Isaac will be this size, smaller, or bigger?

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Quoting AussieStorm:


What time East coast US time is the flights? 12hrs?


ok like
2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 21/1800Z = 21/2:00PM
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 21/1530Z = 21/11:30AM
D. 16.2N 54.5W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z = 21/1:00PM TO 21/ 6:00PM
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

I hop that kinda helps

Quoting stormchaser19:


models have been shifting S and W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11052
Quoting StormJunkie:

Yes, I agree.  That said, the handful of locals did post like crazy during those Katrina, Rita, Jeane, Charley, etc event.  Surely couldn't keep up with 50 comments in 8 min though I don't think.  Although, I may have posted a certain flood map and terror story regarding a certain bowl of a city 50 times in 8 minutes ;)
Well, the day u joined the blog, I was prolly still in NOLA... lol not thinking at all about joining a wx blog... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting Grothar:


I watched you guys starting right before Katrina. I didn't make my first post until 2009. I felt I didn't have anything to say. I would read the blog a couple times a day. It was fun reading.


You really have been around a while haven't you?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting StormJunkie:
Matter of fact, I may take that pic and turn it in to a WANTED poster and plaster it all over every weather blog I can find.  Forget Waldo; the new game will be Find Lefty.


Didn't know yall had such a falling out.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043

Quoting Grothar:


I watched you guys starting right before Katrina. I didn't make my first post until 2009. I felt I didn't have anything to say. I would read the blog a couple times a day. It was fun reading.
Oh, I am sure it was fun reading!  It was a scene for sure.  Cut throat clique wars, passing knowledge and debate around, and some great humor thrown in from time to time.  Left's occasional rants were always fun to watch...as I am sure some of mine were.  In the end though, I think most all of us came out friends.  Cliques are for middle school, not tropical weather forums :)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15645
Quoting KoritheMan:
For now I agree with the model consensus in taking the system toward Florida or the east coast. However, the fly in the ointment will be interaction with Hispaniola, which could cause a center reformation if the system slows down enough over the mountains. I would consider that an outlier scenario for now, though.
So assuming it stays far enough away from the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, where do you see this system making the turn and do you think it will be a gradual turn or a rapid turn?
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Lefty and Rand...what a pair - lol
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



"S" almost marks the spot.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
2691. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hé Gro, pensez-vous que ce chiot finira par frapper les Etats-Unis quelque part ? Si oui, quel est la première lettre de ce déclare ?


F
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
2690. will40
Quoting StormJunkie:
Matter of fact, I may take that pic and turn it in to a WANTED poster and plaster it all over every weather blog I can find.  Forget Waldo; the new game will be Find Lefty.




Yes you and Lefty had some good times and some disagreements also
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4110
2689. emguy
One interesting point of note...Notice the expanse of the circulation envelope. It is actually larger than the entire state of Florida. LINK

That's actually important, because when these large expansive systems turn into a weakness, they tend to do so more gradually, as compared to smaller systems, which are more inclined to pull a hard right into the weakness. On that basis, I would expect that when this system turns into the break in the ridge, it will be a gradual bend in track...The GFS has been portraying this relatively well over the last few days. Although, this run was slightly more progressivee in the recurve...and may have been slightly over done, but only slightly if so.

The next few days of tracking will be interesting.

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Quoting Kowaliga:
Evenin'/Mornin' ya'll


Good Afternoon.

Here is the OHC/TCHP for the WATL/CATL.


Click image for full size image.
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Matter of fact, I may take that pic and turn it in to a WANTED poster and plaster it all over every weather blog I can find.  Forget Waldo; the new game will be Find Lefty.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15645
2685. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What happened to Lefty? I have fond memories of those years.


I watched you guys starting right before Katrina. I didn't make my first post until 2009. I felt I didn't have anything to say. I would read the blog a couple times a day. It was fun reading.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
For now I agree with the model consensus in taking the system toward Florida or the east coast. However, the fly in the ointment will be interaction with Hispaniola, which could cause a center reformation if the system slows down enough over the mountains. That would potentially cause a substantial track change. I would consider that an outlier scenario for now, though.
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Quoting scottsvb:


models change.. you can go out to 5 days if you want..but since it will be so close to hispaniola..it could interact with it in 4-5 days.
That is true and if it is close enough to interact with Hispaniola it will be interesting to see if it is able to hold its own or weaken.
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GMT (UTC) - 4hrs
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.