Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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Quoting Levi32:


The ECMWF has the best solution of any global model. Sometimes I think that can be a detriment, if that is actually possible. Too much feedback of small-scale wavelets within the circulation that cause the model to choke, perhaps.


That's a great point actually. I do think it is the quickest model to pick up on small and shallow features and mesoscale influences and thus we usually see problems when a synoptic scale system hasn't consolidated yet.
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right.in.the.middle.of.that.narrow.cone..cuba.wont. slow.it.much
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4336
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.5/25 KT
FROM SAB. SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH SOME CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
INTACT FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96
HOURS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER GFS MODEL AND SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL.

OTHER THAN SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. DURING DAYS 2-3...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE THE WEAKEST AND WATER TEMPERATURES
THE WARMEST...AND THAT IS WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND
MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA...RESPECTIVELY...IS THE PRIMARY REASON
FOR THE LEVELING OFF IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF...BUT IS LOWER THAN...THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.2N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.7N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 74.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
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Quoting bigwes6844:
yep especially the way GFDL has it going. smh! but the LBAR says hi to u ATHOME


Yeah, I don't think it's right. lol But I still watch.
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Evening/morning night shift. See we got TD9, not sure I really like the Stewart's intensity forecast, just comparing his forecast to the global models. Also interesting how he takes the storm further south than most of the model guidance while intensifying it more than the global models predict.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Trust me I'm watching closely. They can spin up quick out there.
yep especially the way GFDL has it going. smh! but the LBAR says hi to u ATHOME
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
3125. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


Just not a good enough resolution to handle its large circulation until the system is a tropical cyclone. Now TD 9 has formed and looks to organize further and with the addition of RECON data about the storm's structure and environment this afternoon we'll have much better performing models.


The ECMWF has the best resolution of any global model. Sometimes I think that can be a detriment, if that is actually possible. Too much feedback of small-scale wavelets within the circulation that cause the model to choke, perhaps.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
3124. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
Morning Largo. I hope u have all your hurricane supplies ready because home depot and lowes will be selling big time out in florida
yep..looks like we will be getting hit..so far at least
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
3123. LargoFl
.......Good Morning folks..going to be a heavy posting day around here, I can feel it..lol..have a wonderful day
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL good morning wes
Morning Largo. I hope u have all your hurricane supplies ready because home depot and lowes will be selling big time out in florida
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Quoting bigwes6844:
95L said dont forget about me! LOL!


Lol. Trust me I'm watching closely. They can spin up quick out there.
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3120. Levi32
Quoting chrisdscane:
claps levi for your 50W prediction i cant wait to see your new cone ur old on was jut wrong


The NHC cone is more unorthodox than mine right now lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting chrisdscane:
claps levi for your 50W prediction i cant wait to see your new cone ur old on was jut wrong


The old one isn't 'wrong' yet by any means at all. There is a long way to go and a lot more information to be analyzed before one track or another can be ruled out. Not to mention the reasoning behind his present track is very solid and is supported by plenty of data.
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3118. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
95L said dont forget about me! LOL!
LOL good morning wes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
95L said dont forget about me! LOL!
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Quoting Levi32:
One thing I don't get about the 0z ECMWF is how it develops secondary low pressure west of TD 9's center in the central Caribbean, beginning near Hispaniola, resulting in a broad area of low pressure within which TD 9 is embedded. It still looks like the ECMWF is struggling a bit resolving the entire situation, but we'll see.





Just not a good enough resolution to handle its large circulation until the system is a tropical cyclone. Now TD 9 has formed and looks to organize further and with the addition of RECON data about the storm's structure and environment this afternoon we'll have much better performing models.
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3115. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
goodnight.night.owls.convection.is.on.the.increase
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4336
claps levi for your 50W prediction i cant wait to see your new cone ur old on was jut wrong
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Quoting Levi32:
One thing I don't get about the 0z ECMWF is how it develops secondary low pressure west of TD 9's center in the central Caribbean, beginning near Hispaniola, resulting in a broad area of low pressure within which TD 9 is embedded. It still looks like the ECMWF is struggling a bit resolving the entire situation, but we'll see.





I wondered about that too. But right after it starts strengthening.
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3111. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting atmosweather:


Ehh might as well go all-out on this one since the blog for the next few days is going to be a zoo anyways lol.


Lol. And it's fixing to commence shortly.
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3109. Levi32
One thing I don't get about the 0z ECMWF is how it develops secondary low pressure west of TD 9's center in the central Caribbean, beginning near Hispaniola, resulting in a broad area of low pressure within which TD 9 is embedded. It still looks like the ECMWF is struggling a bit resolving the entire situation, but we'll see.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'll tone it down next time. ;)


Ehh might as well go all-out on this one since the blog for the next few days is going to be a zoo anyways lol.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Ok, time for some rest...I'd be foolish to stay up for any more frames to come out...It will still be there to look at when I get up. And there will be plenty of model data to digest, along with recon reports, and 9 is quickly headed for rapid scan imagery as well.


Night StormJunkie. I should be headed to bed. Who's the junkie now? :)
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Quoting atmosweather:


Disclaimer: *The blog comments you are about to see this week will contain strong language, disturbing graphic content and a plethora of full-frontal guessing and trolling*

:)


I'll tone it down next time. ;)
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seems.td.nice.is.headed.for.the.big.leagues
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4336
Ok, time for some rest...I'd be foolish to stay up for any more frames to come out...It will still be there to look at when I get up. And there will be plenty of model data to digest, along with recon reports, and 9 is quickly headed for rapid scan imagery as well.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh boy.


Disclaimer: *The blog comments you are about to see this week will contain strong language, disturbing graphic content and a plethora of full-frontal guessing and trolling*

:)
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Quoting Levi32:
Stewart is south of the guidance envelope. Interesting. Bullish intensity forecast is typical of him as well. His discussion should be a good read.



From that discussion that AtHome posted, sounds like they are leaning towards the ECMWF fairly heavily for multiple reasons.
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goodmorning.number.nine
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4336
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Quoting Levi32:
Forecasted hurricane south of Hispaniola:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.


Looking at their intensity forecast, I'm surprised they are that aggressive especially in the 3-day timeframe.
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...NINTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 21
Location: 15.2°N 51.2°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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3097. tkdaime
Question since hurricane ike was the largest in the Atlantic how does future Isaac compare in size
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Tropical storm warnings issued for the Lesser Antillies. Watches issued for extreme northern Lesser Antillies, Puerto Rico. This includes St. Lucia where recon is stationed.
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Folks we have TD #9 hot off the press
5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 21
Location: 15.2°N 51.2°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
3094. Levi32
Stewart is south of the guidance envelope. Interesting. Bullish intensity forecast is typical of him as well. His discussion should be a good read.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting Levi32:
Forecasted hurricane south of Hispaniola:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.


Oh boy.
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NHC going with the bullish intensity forecast right off the bat as its forecast track misses the majority of land in front of it.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
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anybody thinking that TD#9 will affect 96L development?
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3090. Levi32
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
3089. Levi32
Forecasted hurricane south of Hispaniola:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
First image of TD 9

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Has anyone thought we could be in a 1,2 punch with 94L and 96L? 94L is 100% and 96L is 50%.
Visually and structurally they both look very well.

95L could become a rain-maker for the Gulf coast states. Which would bring many of them much needed rain.


96L not looking too shabby I agree.

Entering the Central Atlantic satellite image, it appears that we will see a floater activated on 96L very soon.

EDIT: I just noticed this but look at the cloud attachment from 96L to TD 9!



96L is beginning to pop some convection after detaching from the front. Circulation needs some tightening up though.



And of course newly formed TD 9 is looking better every time I look at it.



As mentioned earlier, firing some very cold cloud tops. This thing is beginning to ramp up!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
hmmm...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 25 2012 - 12Z TUE AUG 28 2012
THE TRACK OF TD NINE CURRENTLY NEARING
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE NHC YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY DAY 6/MON.


I'd say it is official. We have TD 9 Good catch AtHome!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

mmmmmm NWS is already calling it TD9. Interesting mmmmmm


That's what I thought.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


See post 3052.


NHC has not named it TD9. Until they do it's still 94L.
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ok folks we are 15 to 20 mins away from the NHC site updates the storm so get those F5s ready!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

mmmmmm NWS is already calling it TD9. Interesting mmmmmm


See post 3052.
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They say if 94L develops,which it appears to be doing HH will be going out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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