Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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we may have a cat3 or 4 coming not good not good at all!!
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes for central florida this is going to be a very bad afternoon and evening looks like..they are warning for strong storms, be safe ok, would not want to be on I-4 later on gee..so far here the sun is out


Hey Largo I told you those storms were rolling your way last evening. Today will be much worse so get ready!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting gugi182:
I'm writing from the south part of Puerto Rico. Question there saying that the center of the storm future Issac will pass 75 miles south of the city of Ponce,PR around Thursday Afternoon. Will this system try to job West North West now or North West from it current position. Or will it keep heading due West?
NHC says west movement should continue for the next few days.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
INTACT FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96
HOURS.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Beautiful structure for a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The fifty phenomenon
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3325. LargoFl
Quoting masonsnana:
Make it go away Largo :)
LOL im trying hahaha..geez this might be awful huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
About 6 hours.

Oh jeez. that at 3am here, I'll keep my GE running overnight and check it in the morning. They may still be up in the air when I wake up.
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A very dangerous pattern for FL as many on here have been saying all season. Hard to believe that this could be the 3rd strike on FL so far this season and it's not even the peak.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
3321. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:


Thanks for the awful forecasts Largo.
Now I know what I'll have to be driving in.
yes for central florida this is going to be a very bad afternoon and evening looks like..they are warning for strong storms, be safe ok, would not want to be on I-4 later on gee..so far here the sun is out
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
Quoting KoritheMan:
I know Cleverbot says Kirk will be the big one this year, but come on... Kirk? After Isaac, this name sorely lacks anything remotely dangerous in presentation. Leslie? Oscar? We can do better.
How about "KoritheMan" for the K name. Personally, I like Kirk better.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3319. SLU
The strong mid-level circulation seems to be located near 14.5n 52.2w. We could see the LLC relocate there if the convection keep firing over the mid-level center.

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Well we know if the current track pans out there will be no RNC, I don't think Tampa and my city, Fort Myers, can be situated more in the middle of the guidance then it is now
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Quoting AussieStorm:


How long till they take off?
About 6 hours.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
I hope the N Leewards will get some rain.... good rain of course, not a single shower
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Quoting LargoFl:
RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS MAY
FEEL THE AFFECTS OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS WEEKEND.
KEEP THIS IN MIND...AND REALIZE THAT IT IS NEVER TOO EARLY OR A WASTE
OF TIME TO REVIEW INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
Make it go away Largo :)
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Anybody that lives across Coastal FL get an evacuation route in order just in case evacuations are ordered this weekend. Also hit the stores and buy hurricane supplies if you have not done so because if you wait until Friday then it will be "mayham" across C & S FL. All the mets here in Orlando are very worried and I know people on here will say what they want or even post a track going near Bermuda when the consensus is FL. Get ready folks as this could be a BIG ONE!!


Euro destroyes the RNC!


GFS hammers eastern FL very hard.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
may have a Hurricane wow!!!
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3312. LargoFl
Quoting gugi182:
I'm writing from the south part of Puerto Rico. Question there saying that the center of the storm future Issac will pass 75 miles south of the city of Ponce,PR around Thursday Afternoon. Will this system try to job West North West now or North West from it current position. Or will it keep heading due West?
no one can say for sure at this time but..for PR its time to prepare,get your supplies etc, dont wait
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Man the TVCN, HWRF and GFDL are bundled up tight.

What is the underlying (or common) condition of these models to be so similar in path? Is it the ridge building in, or are conditions so right that they are all accurate to some degree?
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3309. gugi182
I'm writing from the south part of Puerto Rico. Question there saying that the center of the storm future Issac will pass 75 miles south of the city of Ponce,PR around Thursday Afternoon. Will this system try to job West North West now or North West from it current position. Or will it keep heading due West?
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Off to teach, I'll try to check in and lurk at lunch (Can't sign in at school or they will ban the site). It'll be an interesting day. Have to admit I'd rather be watching weather than teaching for the next week or so. *G* Everyone have a great Tuesday!
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I think the forecast cone will shift S and W
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3304. tkdaime
If Isaac goes over Cuba it won't hurt it much a lot of flat terrain there. Heard this in the weather channel
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Why do we have to wait three hours for our cone...
we want it now!

: )
Want sprinkles with that?
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
Quoting AussieStorm:


How long till they take off?


should be 9 or 10am I think
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Thanks for the awful forecasts Largo.
Now I know what I'll have to be driving in.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11355
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think TD9's LLCOC is near 14.5N 52.3W at this time, can't wait till HH flys in


How long till they take off?
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Watch those waves.



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Quoting GTcooliebai:
00z Euro Loop

06z GFS Loop
Notice the speed difference. Big time. 10 days for ecmwf to bring it to tampa. 7 days gfs orlando.

I am leaning towards ecmwf speed wise.
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Doc Master in this blog (read above) stated the two scenarios he anticipated for this system was either across to the Yucatan or a recurverature back into the West Coast of Florida and provided his reasoning for those scenarios to play out. Which one does this look like? He normally does not go out on a limb that far out on an undeclared storm unless he has pretty good confidence on the possible outcome.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just noticed that the NHC gave Isaac a 4% of cat 4 in 96 hours. Not to shabby.

I would say that would be frightening.
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3295. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-212345 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
501 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW FOR
TRAINING TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NATURE COAST
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

MCMICHAEL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
The power of 50W.

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Shear will not be a problem for Isaac. Land Interaction/mountains?
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Quoting AllStar17:


Correct.

Methinks the recon mission tomorrow will be very interesting.
Ok, Jar-Jar Allstar!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
Quoting Relix:


I have it at 15N, 52.7W. Remember its getting sheared and the convection is to the south. Although I do see hot towers where you say.


5kts shear is not considered as being sheared lol
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3290. LargoFl
RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS MAY
FEEL THE AFFECTS OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS WEEKEND.
KEEP THIS IN MIND...AND REALIZE THAT IT IS NEVER TOO EARLY OR A WASTE
OF TIME TO REVIEW INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
3289. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN ZIPPER UP TO THE BREVARD COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION.
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR THAT INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60
MPH...HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES...PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST. A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF A FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT MOVING
ONSHORE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR TWO
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL FORM OVER LAND AND MOVE QUICKLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND OFFSHORE. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INLAND LAKES...INTRACOASTAL AND
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST COULD PRODUCE AROUND 50
KNOTS OF WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR THAT INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST MAY PRODUCE BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR A
WATERSPOUT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD
THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. THEN THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SOME DRIER AIR. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND LOWER COVERAGE OF
STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST PUSH WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEK. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY FEEL
EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. WE ARE ENTERING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW
YOUR HURRICANE PLANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$

KELLY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
3288. Relix
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think TD9's LLCOC is near 14.5N 52.3W at this time, can't wait till HH flys in


I have it at 15N, 52.7W. Remember its getting sheared and the convection is to the south. Although I do see hot towers where you say.
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Carib: "I HOPE THE GFS IS RIGHT ON 94L! The N Leewards want rain!!!!! Islands from antigua to anguilla... not guadeloupe nor dominica cause they have already HAD ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!"

Yes you want rain, but are you prepared to weather 60 mph winds to get it? But I suppose with most of the winds expected to be in the southern quadrant of TD9 it seems Dominica-Guadeloupe will be getting the brunt. So you may be lucky...less winds with rain. Here in Dominica we are saturated, last night we had more than enough, so preparing for bad things on Wednesday.
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hey guys I think TD9's LLCOC is near 14.5N 52.3W at this time, can't wait till HH flys in
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3285. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE INTERIOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES IN MOST
OF THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS IDENTIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THAT HAS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD MONITOR ANY ADVISORIES OR FORECASTS ON THIS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IF ISSUED BY THE HURRICANE CENTER.

OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME NO
ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE ORDINARY IS EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
Quoting Chicklit:
It's TD9 now StormwatcherCI. 96L is at 50%!
LOL. My bad. I forgot. Thank you :)
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
It's TD9 now StormwatcherCI. 96L is at 50%!


"A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALSO IS FORECAST IN 48 HOURS TO BE NEAR 11N36W."
-- From 2 a.m. NHC Discussion.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11355
3282. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
00z Euro Loop

06z GFS Loop
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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