Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

Share this Blog
59
+

A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3431 - 3381

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83Blog Index

Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope. nothing has changed except 94L is now TD9. 96L is 50% and 95L is still at 30%.




96L is now up too 60% at the 8am two
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:


The bold is rude unless you are emphasising something. This response is even more rude, because it bolding something that is rude, and, frankly, bullying in tone.

At a time like this, when all eyes should be on the storm, don't make a distraction of yourself.

mabee he is hard of hearing and just talks loud
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
Quoting allancalderini:
We could have td 10 as early tomorrow.

With 95 or 96???
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Quoting ncstorm:


STK, my news station was talking about it this morning..the GFS shifted east..the CMC came west..the UKMet brings this east of Florida..models are going to shift back and forth many more times before this is all said and done..Islanders..you are up first


Shifted a little east on the 0z run and shifted back west on the 06z run either way both runs have the center going right up the spine of FL. The trick is does it go west and stay in the Gulf, come up over FL, or ride up the east coast of FL. The Carolina's look to be protected in the near term due to this bubble of high pressure across the north Bahamas.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
3427. LargoFl
Quoting Fishinnfever05:
What are te chances this track shifts west into Alabama?
..chances are the same all over right now...gulf coast and east coast..no one knows just yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39693
3426. icmoore
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.Anything new?.


Good morning. Nothing good that I've seen so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.Anything new?.

Nope. nothing has changed except 94L is now TD9. 96L is 50% and 95L is still at 30%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoa... Much improved since 2 a. m. this morning...





But still absolutely HUGE...


WOW lastnight was sooooo dry...

NHC S of islands...

FL threat for now. I know it is unpredictable but up here in ME im not worried. Is that safe to say??
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
.

Puerto Rico NWS Disco

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 51 WEST HAS
SPAWNED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 15.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
51.2 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN NOT
VERY FAR SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY A RAIN
BAND IS EXPECTED TO PULL THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM THAT HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE
PASSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.Anything new?.
td 9 expect to become a cat 2 and possible td 10 for tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


I live in Orlando too and I haven't seen a great deal of hype on the local stations yet. It's pretty typical for most potential long-range threats to our area. Anyone that lives near or on a US coastline should be putting together their hurricane plans, no matter where the local mets or the models point to, because TD 9 could affect any portion of the United States to any degree or it may not affect it at all.
Hey Atmos. My daughter just moved to Orlando last week. Not familiar with that area during a hurricane. Is that area strongly affected or are they far enough inland that the effects are smaller? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3418. LargoFl
Quoting islandgirls:
Pleasant good morning to everyone from Antigua. Presently we are getting some rain from a tropical wave. All eyes are on Tropical Depression #9 as we are under a tropical storm warning. The Met Office says we can get 3-5 inches of rain from this system. Waiting for what is to be.....
..good luck down there, stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39693
If you want a good Hurricane Prep supply check list, have a look here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We could have td 10 as early tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.Anything new?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islandgirls:
Pleasant good morning to everyone from Antigua. Presently we are getting some rain from a tropical wave. All eyes are on Tropical Depression #9 as we are under a tropical storm warning. The Met Office says we can get 3-5 inches of rain from this system. Waiting for what is to be.....
Hey... sure hope u guys don't get too much wind with it... they expect it to be strengthening as it comes through there, but the centre should go south enough that the winds you get are not too bad.

You stay safe!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
What are te chances this track shifts west into Alabama?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txwcc:


And to take that a step further, the GFS has been absolutely incredible with forecasting this year. I have never, EVER seen it forecast with this much accuracy for our first 8 storms previously.


Those upgrades really helped. I wonder what type of upgrades they did as it is almost like a diffrent model compared to earlier in the year.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
3410. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I gotta get bottled water today, tomorrow morning at the latest...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I do not, and am not wishcasting, at all.


Jokecasting
Codycasting
Harrisoncasting
Levicasting
Patrapcasting
Grothercasting


All types of casting you see:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Well not only are they saying to get ready but they are also saying we could experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions starting late Sunday across Brevard County south to Miami.


I live in Orlando too and I haven't seen a great deal of hype on the local stations yet. It's pretty typical for most potential long-range threats to our area. Anyone that lives near or on a US coastline should be putting together their hurricane plans, no matter where the local mets or the models point to, because TD 9 could affect any portion of the United States to any degree or it may not affect it at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3405. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Well not only are they saying to get ready but they are also saying we could experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions starting late Sunday across Brevard County south to Miami.


STK, my news station was talking about it this morning..the GFS shifted east..the CMC came west..the UKMet brings this east of Florida..models are going to shift back and forth many more times before this is all said and done..Islanders..you are up first
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pleasant good morning to everyone from Antigua. Presently we are getting some rain from a tropical wave. All eyes are on Tropical Depression #9 as we are under a tropical storm warning. The Met Office says we can get 3-5 inches of rain from this system. Waiting for what is to be.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nothing rude about bold so get your morning coffe and calm down
The bold is rude unless you are emphasising something. This response is even more rude, because it bolding something that is rude, and, frankly, bullying in tone.

At a time like this, when all eyes should be on the storm, don't make a distraction of yourself.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting weatherh98:


Is your last name tolleris?

And prolly a CDO but not an eye yet.




POOF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
charlie.was.tiny.imagine.the.effects.of.a.large.m aj or.running.up.the.spine...week.or.so.no.electricit y


This could be a large system by looking at the models as it is rolling into FL.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting weatherh98:


Wish casting with skill
Maybe but he has been good when he says that a storm is going to enter the caribbean can`t say the same of intensity though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3399. air360
Disclaimer: I am not saying the NHC is wrong - I am asking this question because i don't know..not because I think they are wrong.

I know models are just models but if you look at the ensembles and think about the fact that every run of an ensemble is different conditions so they really are all individual model runs - 75% of them come up East of FL or the Eastern half of FL.

How are they coming up with a track so far south?

I know they are doing a mix of the GFS and ECMWF - but are they giving that much weight to the ECMWF to shift the track that much south even though the GFS and its Ensembles have been so consistent the past day or two of turning up into FL or even slightly E?
Member Since: October 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 275
Quoting MahFL:


Yes there is, there are unwritten rules of a blog, not using caps and bold are two of them.



NAH. THAT'S JUST PEOPLE THAT ARE EASILY OFFENDED FOR NO RATIONAL REASON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Wish casting with skill

I do not, and am not wishcasting, at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If the storm stayed just offshore it would be a worst case scenario as the system moved north it would pushed the water in Tampa Bay onshore inundating areas around the bay. I remember them discussing this during Charley.


Great point!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
charlie.was.tiny.imagine.the.effects.of.a.large.maj or.running.up.the.spine...week.or.so.no.electricit y
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



dents overcast fourm over the center? may be a eye wall is fourming?


Is your last name tolleris?

And prolly a CDO but not an eye yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3392. MahFL
Starting to get a slight buzz saw look on the east side.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoa... Much improved since 2 a. m. this morning...





But still absolutely HUGE...




dents overcast fourm over the center? may be a eye wall is fourming?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspiring2012:


Wish-casting is my favorite hobby. I've been mentally wishcasting towards the RNC all week.


Ya wish casting with trolls
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


thnak you
You are welcome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3388. LargoFl
Quoting MahFL:
I wonder how the high price of gasoline will affect peoples willingness to evacuate, especially if they have to drive to AL or MS.
yesterday it was 3.59 a gallon..i fully expect..4.00 a gallon come friday..IF there is any left, if this storm comes up the west coast..good thing i have a hybrid car..lasts for a long time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39693
3387. SLU

WTNT34 KNHC 211136
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 51.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
*GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA... AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND EMERGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


To be honest that means absolutely nothing, other than they are smart for reminding people to have hurricane plans in place. Whether they or another group of mets are telling their viewers to do this does not impact where TD9 is tracking whatsoever.



Well not only are they saying to get ready but they are also saying we could experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions starting late Sunday across Brevard County south to Miami.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
3385. MahFL
Quoting txwcc:

Relax.


I am relaxed, I am just offering some friendly advice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3383. ncstorm
00Z CMC..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
one good thing in these tracks..i see NO track..coming directly INTO..tampa bay ..so far huh
If the storm stayed just offshore it would be a worst case scenario as the system moved north it would pushed the water in Tampa Bay onshore inundating areas around the bay. I remember them discussing this during Charley.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Off to teach, I'll try to check in and lurk at lunch (Can't sign in at school or they will ban the site). It'll be an interesting day. Have to admit I'd rather be watching weather than teaching for the next week or so. *G* Everyone have a great Tuesday!
teach tropical weather
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081

Viewing: 3431 - 3381

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
56 °F
Overcast