Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters

hugh blanket of smoke (got2dogs)
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
hugh blanket of smoke
Smoke! What smoke ?? (saltydawgg)
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Smoke! What smoke ??
Temecula Fire (photoandy)
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
Temecula Fire

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TD9 looking petty good this morning RBTOP

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
its funny..yesterday i asked a foolish question..could this storm, become a Katrina?..everyone laughed...today im asking again..could it become a cat 4 or higher..in the gulf?
LMAO!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
People on here seem to forget that Irene's center relocated about 75 miles to the NE while approaching the Northern Leeward Islands that is why this became a NC storm instead of a FL storm. This is a whole nother story and nothing like Irene as TD 9 is ready to blow up now and not wait until it gets near PR like a Irene did.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
3628. Grothar
If it takes a track similar to this, it could strengthen much more. Even though the highest mountains are in Eastern Cuba, and they often disrupts systems completely, it still may have enough time over water to restrengthen.

Remember, with a system this large, they can often split and some energy is left to the south and others go to the North. This is a very large system.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
The jogs of any system comes with the territory. In this case, with such close proximity to the Greater Antilles with the current NHC track, that could make a big difference in terms of land interaction with the core, or not, as it crosses near Hispanola. No way to tell at this point how close or how far it will be from the current forecast points in 3 days or how the track will adjust between now and then with the models.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
3626. txwcc
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not even close as Irene was very disorganized as she was over the Leeward Islands. TD 9 is very well defined unlike Irene in the early stages.



Exactly.

Plus, TD9 is already south of his forecast points...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not even close as Irene was very disorganized as she was over the Leeward Islands. TD 9 is very well defined unlike Irene in the early stages.


Which makes even more evidence for a more northerly track. :)
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Quoting floridaboy14:
conditions after the islands look extremely favorable. after it crosses the greater antilies, would not surprise me to get a major out of this

With this well defined anticyclone over the top of it, it could blow up really fast.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not even close as Irene was very disorganized as she was over the Leeward Islands. TD 9 is very well defined unlike Irene in the early stages.

He's talking about the FORECAST, not TD9 itself...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
here is what I meant...look at the bottom half of the picture..

AUGUST 19
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Slowly...not slot.

I you ever get an iPhone, beware autocorrect.



i got a ipad but thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This reminds me of Irene all over again. It had the same southern track forecast on its first advisory.

If this is a strong tropical storm in the NE Caribbean, there is no reason to suggest it won't curve north.


Not even close as Irene was very disorganized as she was over the Leeward Islands. TD 9 is very well defined unlike Irene in the early stages.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Folks in Florida make your plans now. This does not look good.I expect to see lots of Florida cars here in the next week or so. Stay safe and we'll welcome you to Texas.
Such a nice thing to say :)
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Slowly...not slot.

I you ever get an iPhone, beware autocorrect.
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Quoting KatyMan:
Long time lurker and senile old man. I hope to be in St John Virgin Islands the first week of Sept for my daughters beach wedding. What will the Island look like if one of the storms hit the Island.

Thanks
This storm will already pass by September. Keep the eye out for future storms though...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Since there is a weakness in the high pressure near Florida I don't see how TD9 doesnt come close to this state? 95L is going West into Mexico. Too early to say what will happen with 96L IMO. There is land south of Florida and some have mountains that will disrupt this storm like eastern Cuba and Hispanolia. I can see a Cat 1 or 2 storm hitting the southeastern part of the USA somewhere East of La. Since a huge part of Florida has had alot of rain recently flooding has to be a huge concern. For Texas we have the El Nino coming which should help put some water in our Lakes and Aquifers etc. Last year from middle of July to Sept I received .005 of rain, this year so far during same period .010. Have a great day!
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3615. KatyMan
Long time lurker and senile old man. I hope to be in St John Virgin Islands the first week of Sept for my daughters beach wedding. What will the Island look like if one of the storms hit the Island.

Thanks
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all so too make sure we all dont get a 24hr bannd this week why following this storm has the admins will be out in FULL why we have storms whats go overe the rules of the rd


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you guys follow the rules you guys wont get a 24hrs bannd but you guys start posting off topic photos durning storms then you likey get a bannd
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The high is gradually retreating as a trough slot moves east and deepens across the East USA.
conditions after the islands look extremely favorable. after it crosses the greater antilies, would not surprise me to get a major out of this
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting CapnK:


Heh. When you get a chance, look at what Hugo did as far inland as Charlotte and points north, even causing damage up into Ohio. Us folks on the coast have to worry about surge and such, but folks inland can seriously be affected by the winds of these storms. During Hugo, I left MB about 30 mins before the eyewall came ashore, and drove inland to my parents house in Conway. It was scarier there than at the beach, what with all the trees breaking and falling. However, traffic on US501 was *very* light that night... ;)
Mom was in Charlotte during Hugo and still had 115 mph winds gusts
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting Bluestorm5:
What about the steering? Isn't it leading TD9 westward with WSW jogs?


yes steering show a WSW-S of due W movement
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12437
3610. Grothar
It has taken a little jog to the SW but the general direction is W. It could be responding to the ULL above it that is retreating North and getting filled in fill high pressure. This should be temporary.

15.6N 46.7W 20120820 - 18z
15.2N 50.3W 20120821 - 06z
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
Good morning everyone. I see now we have a number, and I hear that the TPC expects a name in the next few hours.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's not going much westward..if you say so because of 95L...forget it...that storm might not catch it to go into GOM...it will be strong enough to keep its current path into east FL


Becareful with this statement. Shift of 90 miles brings it into the west coast of Florida. It is not a wide state.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This reminds me of Irene all over again. It had the same southern track forecast on its first advisory.

If this is a strong tropical storm in the NE Caribbean, there is no reason to suggest it won't curve north.


Roger that...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting Bluestorm5:
What about the steering? Isn't it leading TD9 westward with WSW jogs?

The high is gradually retreating as a trough slot moves east and deepens across the East USA.
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3605. txwcc
This is looking more and more like a direct landfall anywhere from the Keys all the way up the spine of the Peninsula.

I would seriously start making preparations now!
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
wunderkid i agree with you it is moving slightly wsw and with that also pushes the track further west and you know what that means!!


yeap and also with that you know what that mean

less land interaction=stronger storm

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12437
3603. CapnK
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this from Hurricane Fran of 1996... guess I'm not as far inland as I thought I would be. I'll be screwed if a Category 4-5 ever hit directly in Myrtle Beach in future.


Heh. When you get a chance, look at what Hugo did as far inland as Charlotte and points north, even causing damage up into Ohio. Us folks on the coast have to worry about surge and such, but folks inland can seriously be affected by the winds of these storms. During Hugo, I left MB about 30 mins before the eyewall came ashore, and drove inland to my parents house in Conway. It was scarier there than at the beach, what with all the trees breaking and falling. However, traffic on US501 was *very* light that night... ;)
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passing pretty close to this bouy
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This reminds me of Irene all over again. It had the same southern track forecast on its first advisory.

If this is a strong tropical storm in the NE Caribbean, there is no reason to suggest it won't curve north.
What about the steering? Isn't it leading TD9 westward with WSW jogs?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Folks in Florida make your plans now. This does not look good.I expect to see lots of Florida cars here in the next week or so. Stay safe and we'll welcome you to Texas.
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I just checked with GFS 6z run... it's now favoring East Florida.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
3598. JNCali
GOM is a warm bath...
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This reminds me of Irene all over again. It had the same southern track forecast on its first advisory.

If this is a strong tropical storm in the NE Caribbean, there is no reason to suggest it won't curve north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stupid phone...I meant threat.



lol a phone is a phone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
3595. MahFL
Quoting JNCali:
Folks in FL have no excuse not to be ready to button up the house and have a plan to head out of the area. If you know anyone who has moved there from out of state and may need some info on prep, please let them know today... Here's a good online resource from the Sun-SentinelLink


You are aware that only about 25 % of people in the Keys actually ever evacuate.....as for the rest of FL....
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I knew since three days Isaac is going to become a hurricane before nearing Hispaniola...


Nice I like the bold by the way.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Never seen anything like it. Also flying into orlando all you saw was a sea of blue from all the blue tarps on what seemed like almost every roof on the eastside of orlando.

We drove in, by bus, from Jax... it was freaky, really eerie, to catch glimpses of shattered trees in the glimmer of what little light there was... Not something one is eager to re-experience...



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
I knew since three days Isaac is going to become a hurricane before nearing Hispaniola...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Hopefully, the NHC has their Global Hawk drone online for this storm for research purposes........This seems to be poised to be a "good one" that will fit the bill.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
I know all eyes are on td9, but if td9 hits fl and then heads ne, would that not create a nice weakness to allow 96 to re curve out to sea and away from land? Just a thought.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


TD9 is moving WSW-S of due W there is no illusion and there is not enough shear to create any illusions

but anyway we will have to wait till HH flys in
wunderkid i agree with you it is moving slightly wsw and with that also pushes the track further west and you know what that means!!
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Stupid phone...I meant threat.
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3587. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know we're focused on 09L, but please remember to watch 96L. It may also be a great to the East Coast.


A great what?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
Quoting CapnK:
@Gramma1948 - Of course you should have some concern about tropical storms, but there is no need to *worry* about them. I went thru Hugo in Myrtle Beach back in '89 (along with every other 'cane and TD from '72 til now), and can tell you that the locals there have enough experience that they will be able to help you figure out what to do if or when the time comes for some proactive response to a possible storm landfall. :)


Thank you, I will keep watching it. I was there for Hugo too and this time i'd rather just leave.
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Quoting ncstorm:
NHC Plan of the Day..

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.


takes off at 11am

Quoting WxLogic:
TD#9 approaching an ULAC in a couple hours. Should help it greatly improve its outflow and subsequently its inflow too:



Moisture wise... P14L has been assisting TD#9 these past days on that end:



the ULAC is on top of TD9

Quoting gugi182:
Why is it shifting South west when will it start to shift West North West


because its not shifting WNW and will not for a good while

Quoting AussieStorm:


That's the 3rd time this season they have done that. Maybe there is a newbie and they let him do it but he presses enter instead of save and it updates.

Remember this one.....
and this one.....




hmm its just the NHC wanting to be artistic and colourful lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12437
3584. txwcc
T
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


now I really doubt it's gonna go far into the GOM...maybe into the east side close to FL...but I take it northward and there is a higher chance for an FL/East coast impact than GOM

here is what I mean.. as an example


Great analysis. Thank you.
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3583. Grothar
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Could this be 04 all over again Gro?



Not supposed to be. It's an el Nino year. Little activity. :):) I guess the late shift on here last night really did a good job with this one.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
Quoting JNCali:
Folks in FL have no excuse not to be ready to button up the house and have a plan to head out of the area. If you know anyone who has moved there from out of state and may need some info on prep, please let them know today... Here's a good online resource from the Sun-SentinelLink


News media in Orlando is already alerting people to have a plan of action. Also the EMS in Seminole County is expected to activate tomorrow and a comand post maybe set up come Thursday if the tracks still show FL as the destination of TD 9
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


true buts strongs storm also sometimes move more E-Wward rather than poleward



it's not going much westward..if you say so because of 95L...forget it...that storm might not catch it to go into GOM...it will be strong enough to keep its current path into east FL
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.