94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.
Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.
Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.
Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
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GOP Cancels Convention Opening Night
DAVID ESPO | August 31, 2008 05:18 PM EST |
ST. PAUL, Minn. — John McCain tore up the script for his Republican National Convention on Sunday, ordering the cancellation of all but essential opening-day activities as Hurricane Gustav churned toward New Orleans.
“This is a time when we have to do away with our party politics and we have to act as Americans,” he said as fellow Republicans converged on their convention city to nominate him for the White House.
On the eve of his convention, McCain positioned himself as an above-politics, concerned potential president determined to avoid the errors made by President Bush three years ago. “I have every expectation that we will not see the mistakes of Katrina repeated,” he said.
Bush and Vice President Cheney scrapped plans to address the convention on Monday, and McCain’s aides chartered a jet to fly delegates back to their hurricane-threatened states along the Gulf Coast. Campaign manager Rick Davis said the first-night program was being cut from seven hours to two and one half.
The formal business of the convention includes nominating McCain for president and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Wednesday. McCain’s acceptance speech, set for prime time on Thursday evening, is among the most critical events of the campaign for his chances of winning the White House.
The hasty reordering of an event months in the planning was unprecedented, affecting not only the program on the podium but the accompanying fundraising, partying and other political activity that unfolds around the edges of a national political convention.
McCain said he was looking forward to being the convention but did not say when he would arrive. He spoke via satellite from St. Louis after he and Palin received a briefing on hurricane preparations in Jackson, Miss.
In an interview with NBC, he said it was possible he would make his acceptance speech not from the convention podium but via satellite from the Gulf Coast region.
Good point actually.. :)
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER EAST COAST OF MEXICO AND/OR A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THAT PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE BRO CWFA...AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST DISSIPATES.
Anything below zero is stable, zero is neutral, while anything above zero is unstable. The higher the number, the more unstable the environment which favors deeper convection.
As 94L moves west along about 15-20N, instability increases.
ha ha ha very funny.
no. I don't see a Cat 4 at all. I'd say Cat 2 maybe Cat 3, but Cat 3 is just pushing it.
so Cat 2/boarder Cat 3, but I am leaning more on moderate to strong Cat 2, rather than strong Cat2 boarder Cat 3
Need I remind you Frances and Wilma were pointed at us 5, 6 days, even a week in advance and still hit here?
Einstein reportedly manipulated E=MC(2)and is reportedly why he did not add the formula to his memoirs. Much like the hockey stick.
I haven't even seen a model for 95L that takes it to a TD. What makes you think it will ever get a name?
Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...
Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...
953 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W 1012 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN
TURN W AND MOVE INLAND THE COAST OF NE MEXICO WED. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU.
To be followed by TS BOLAVEN - Taiwan and parts of China are going to take a hit and amounts of rainfall that have the potential for tragic results
This is what the GFS thinks on 95L...lets hope this is what happens...hate the thought of anything getting a chance to develop in the hot water
I hope so too. And maybe it will sling some rain STX way.
Current Weather/Wave Observations
Air Temperature: 76° F
Humidity: 100
Wind direction (W Dir): SW (215 - 224 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 9.7 kts (11.2 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 11.7 kts (13.4 mph)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 8 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 5.58 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 5.6 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 4 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Wave Swell Period (WSP): 8 sec
Wave Swell Height (WSH): 4.92 ft
Wave Swell Range (WSR): 4.10 - 5.74 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.88 in
Updated: 1:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Yeah, let's say the GFS is right...
30 to 36 hours of 1.5 inches per hour of rain would be 45 to 54 inches of rain.
And that's not even a stretch for the W. Pacific.
Some of these typhoons have broken 80 or 90 inches of rain when they stall out over an island.
Guy saying "they can handle it" isn't thinking about that.
Sure it's Taiwan, they're advanced and all, but a stall or a slow hook like that would be a nightmare on any island...
Yep and they will move again I imagine.
Kinda blusterous in Grand Cayman right now.
Morning back to you bluedog.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH A
VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL HELP GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN
ACROSS OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLZ039-042-043-048-212000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0006.120820T1400Z-120822T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CITRUS...HERNANDO...LEVY AND SUMTER.
* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The XTRP is the Leeroy Jenkins of computer models. It just plows the storm straight ahead, regardless of what is in the storms path, or the steering currents. The storm just runs in, no thinking or preparation. The storm just yells its famous war cry and goes in.
quite a turn for the east coast
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