94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting will40:
please dont quote the nuthead guys
Counting the "nutheads" .I'm up to 37 now
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THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FIELD RELATED TO FORMER TROPICAL STORM HELENE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND COASTAL WATERS OF TAMPICO S OF 25N W OF 92W. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE SURFACE FLOW IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER STABLE CONDITIONS.

From 8 am TW disc....

I am at 27.7 N and 91.9 W winds related to approaching front are at 20-25 kts and seas to 6 ft
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please dont quote the nuthead guys
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Quoting Chicklit:
Dr. Masters thinks anywhere between Belize and Vancouver this far out. lol

Really? Vancouver???

Too much attention is being paid to 94L, too many breathless announcements. I like SLU's observation in post 13. Lots of stable air out there.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6011
Levi's opinion: 94L begins a WNW track approaching the NE Carribean as a TS, crossing around the PR area on Wed and afterwards begins a gradual NW movement around 70-75W to the East of the Florida peninsula as a developing hurricane.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
When could we see 95L?



Send from iPad
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Is anyone else having a problem with Levi's tidbit, or is it just my problem?


What problem do you seem to be having?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Is anyone else having a problem with Levi's tidbit, or is it just my problem?


Give it a few mins I am sure that it's still processing
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Quoting Felix2007:


I didn't say it couldn't happen, just said it's not that likely. And I thought he meant landfall in Canada. Yes it could affect Canada inland.
Felix, Why do you say it is not likely? Just would like to know what made you say that?
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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ASSUMPTION...LOWER ST. BERNARD...
ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...
ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD AND UPPER TERREBONNE. IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON.

* UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST AND REPEAT
OVER THE SAME AREAS RESULTING IN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

* RAINFALL RATES MAY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND
PUMPS...RESULTING IN RAPID RUNOFF AND STREET FLOODING. LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING CAPABLE OF
STALLING CARS AND THREATENING HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:


The rain has been coming in waves today! Luckily, nothing severe

Have had reports of waterspouts and marine warnings all morning long. Hopefully nobody in LA has to deal with any flash flooding today and I see that LIX has issued flash flood watches for a large part of SE LA
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Felix..Dr. Masters said "Canada" to the Mexican Yucatan Penisula... I trust Dr. Masters prognosis more than yours, unless you have some secret we do not know... Please share


I didn't say it couldn't happen, just said it's not that likely. And I thought he meant landfall in Canada. Yes it could affect Canada inland.
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Is anyone else having a problem with Levi's tidbit, or is it just my problem?
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Sweet, Levi gives a forecast cone!!!! Hell yeah, wat to go Levi
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TCHP and sst are high in the Bahamas.So with a favorable environment a storm could really take off.Wouldn't be good for the U.S.
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If this set up keeps going for days like its supposed to,rivers and lakes and ponds will be over flowing their banks and flooding will be occuring almost for sure huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
That's not pretty

\

And how many times has that model been correct this season ?
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Quoting LSUCaneGirl:


The rain has been coming in waves today! Luckily, nothing severe


yeah just alot of rain, i needed to finish plowing my crawfish ponds, so i could plant some rice....looks like that's on hold for a few days....
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
That's not pretty

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting Chicklit:


Okay, time for me to take a break, but look at the wave in front of 97L between 45 and 50W. What a big favor that is doing for the invest. Link ATL WV Loop


well it is giving it a taste of moisture. yes it has a small bit of dry air to play with but due to the fact that 94L is larger it can filter out the dry air better, and it is curently do very well in the conditions it is in, and once that hit the caribbean. play time end and the real storm comes alive.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Quoting Felix2007:


Not if 94L develops before the blob does
Still waiting for Felix to tell me why he is so sure that this storm will not affect Canada
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY OF THE HEAVIER OR MORE
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY-DRAINING AREAS...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting Doppler22:

U dont know if 94L will be a fish storm or not... Just because the models maybe predicting it doesnt mean its gonna happen... Mother Nature will do whatever the heck she wants with 94L no matter what models say so really nobody knows 100% where its gonna go


I would like to think that my track record this season and past seasons speaks for itself . I look at climatology and many other factors before I make a call on a system. I know that the bulk of the people on this site want to see a storm hit the US and heck if I was greedy I would want the same thing since I own a generator business and have several weather related sites that make money when we have tropical action. It's sad that people on here want to be imature and start calling somebody a troll cause there opinion differs with theirs. Well off to the coast to do some streaming of waterspouts :)
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Quoting flowrida:
The Republican National Convention
could be in big trouble
yes but its still 8 days away
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting yoboi:


the rain is training off the gom this morn here in la...have 5.2 inches and still going since yesterday morn...


The rain has been coming in waves today! Luckily, nothing severe
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Repost from earlier page.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26037
Quoting cedarparktxguy:


really????? Einstein


i know i is after h meant if it forms have not seen any invest number on it...thank you for your support..
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And farther into the run

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
The Republican National Convention
could be in big trouble
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URRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

THE EYE OF GORDON IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK AND BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN 1103 UTC SSMIS PASS FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE
SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE TILTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...
LIKELY DUE TO THE ALMOST 30 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER GORDON BY
UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE GORDON WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30 KT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
40N/40W OVERTAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...BUT KEEPS GORDON AS A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES TOMORROW. THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF
GORDON DECOPULING BY 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AROUND THAT TIME. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/18. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 48 AND 72 HOURS THE
NHC TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 35.5N 29.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 36.5N 26.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 38.0N 23.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.2N 20.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 39.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 39.5N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Thanks. Levi..
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You must be kidding mobile.Please don't embarrass yourself
Too late, appears he is a fishcaster.
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 19th, with Video
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
darn it! Gordon didn't make it... wait for the post-analisys then...




i told you guys Gordon was not going to be a cat 3 but like all way you have to jump the gune on evere thing
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Quoting Tazmanian:




you are a fish caster and poof you go on too my igore list where fish caster be long


Hell yeah, stick it to em
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Quoting mobileshadow:
94L is clearly a fish . So much for being an active rest of the season unless they start naming every tropical wave :) Ohh wait they already started when they called Helene that was nothing more than an afternoon thunderstorm a tropical storm


Helene was a storm and was located in the tropics...

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting yoboi:


i think if something does form there we would get issac???


Not if 94L develops before the blob does
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow! I just looked at the WV, and the Caribbean and GOM is wet as wet can be. wow! its "wet fest" in this area.


Okay, time for me to take a break, but look at the wave in front of 97L between 45 and 50W. What a big favor that is doing for the invest. Link ATL WV Loop
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Hey, not so fast bro....i think we all just need to wait and see on this one...
There are many possible solutions including weak TSs.

Gordon seems to be recovering nicely from its EWRC/Dry Air mess earlier:
Gordon is impressive for a system this far north. I was kind of surprise it peaked at Cat. 2, as I was only expecting a Cat. 1. Anomalous SSTs must be present in its wake.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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darn it! Gordon didn't make it... wait for the post-analisys then...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Interesting blow up of convection in the sw gom where Helene was.


i think if something does form there we would get issac???
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Quoting Thrawst:
94L looks better than TD-7 did.


well duh lol its stronger its has better conditions and better conditions ahead of it

I have a strong feeling that 94L will be a caribbean system and it will do alot better job than Ernesto and TD7 did
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Quoting mobileshadow:


Are these the same model runs that caused you to make the following predictions this season Tazz ?

Debby into Texas
Ernesto Threat to the US
TD#8 Threat to the US

I look at the model runs and see something completely different than what you see and it's been that way for years. Often times the first model runs on a tropical system are the most accurate. You will not find me wishcasting doom and gloom cause I hate death and destruction. Have a great day

U dont know if 94L will be a fish storm or not... Just because the models maybe predicting it doesnt mean its gonna happen... Mother Nature will do whatever the heck she wants with 94L no matter what models say so really nobody knows 100% where its gonna go
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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