94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting will40:



still stalled at 156


a bit stronger too
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

...You might not have to deal with Isaac...
The GFS has decided to let Isaac pay a little visit to the Gulf Coast.

It keeps it disorganized until the Caribbean. I don't believe that.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
NHC model passes it over PR



Just like Levi's theory
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting Levi32:


Irene weakened because of dry air that ripped out the core, making the winds weak despite the Cat 3-like pressure.


Also lost its eye wall as it left the Bahamas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was bad enough. I remember waking up at 4am with the winds literally howling and the whole house surrounded by water.

We're getting a generator if Isaac/94L decides to come here. Being without power for 18 hours was torture. I don't know how people did it for weeks.
8 days without for Francis......11 days without for Jeanne..14 days without for Wilma...... Not my favorite thing to do
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Well in the Houston area, we have many dead trees from the drought last year, so I'm sure everybody would appreciate a strong hurricane to take down all of those trees so we don't have to.

[Sarcasm Flag: ON]


If we took out all the dead wood here, who would be left to govern us?
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Quoting allancalderini:
Wunderkid cayman may be right.


:)

as I said Caribbean storm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719



still stalled at 156
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NHC model passes it over PR

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252. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think it was last month when 80% of the island just lost power for no reason. The power plant just died for 4 hours.


Actually it was due to some thingy breaking down due to negligence in the maintenance of the grid. :\
The power plant was fine.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was bad enough. I remember waking up at 4am with the winds literally howling and the whole house surrounded by water.

We're getting a generator if Isaac/94L decides to come here. Being without power for 18 hours was torture. I don't know how people did it for weeks.

...You might not have to deal with Isaac...
The GFS has decided to let Isaac pay a little visit to the Gulf Coast.
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Brownsville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
ok so far at 144h GFS 12Z after Jamaica then to the Cayman Islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting will40:



stalled there at 144 hrs
Wunderkid cayman may be right.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Don't most storms?
They cover the entire island... and it only takes about 30-90 minutes to cross.

It was very weak going into the island though.
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Quoting Dakster:
Can someone tell me who needs a strong hurricane at the moment?

Well in the Houston area, we have many dead trees from the drought last year, so I'm sure everybody would appreciate a strong hurricane to take down all of those trees so we don't have to.

[Sarcasm Flag: ON]
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Quoting will40:



stalled there at 144 hrs

Central Gulf Threat now.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Don't most storms?
They cover the entire island... and it only takes about 30-90 minutes to cross.



un less theres 8,000ft mts in the way
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

NC definately got lucky with her, last year... Could've been MUCH worse..

It was bad enough. I remember waking up at 4am with the winds literally howling and the whole house surrounded by water.

We're getting a generator if Isaac/94L decides to come here. Being without power for 18 hours was torture. I don't know how people did it for weeks.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not anyone in the North Atlantic... We would like a Category 1 or Tropical storm... Nothing more.


Just making sure. I keep reading that xxxx does not need a hurricane right now... So I thought someone must want one. JFV?
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well 12Z GFS so far has Caribbean storm once again and takes it to Jamaica and this run is a bit stronger

ok no surprises there
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It survived Jamaica:


Don't most storms?
They cover the entire island... and it only takes about 30-90 minutes to cross.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It survived Jamaica:



Uh oh
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237. yoboi
Quoting muddertracker:
I absolutely don't want future Isaac in the GOMEX. I don't think that would work out so well...


it might already be in the gom....take a look at gom radar...
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stalled there at 144 hrs
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Tropical Lagniappe ?







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
It survived Jamaica:

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Quoting caribbeandude2010:



"The most pathetic power grid in the Caribbean"
you should come to DR.

I think it was last month when 80% of the island just lost power for no reason. The power plant just died for 4 hours.
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Quoting GetReal:
132



Getting act together near Jamaica... Trough still in place over the Great Plains into Texas... How will this run end?

With the location of the Trough... I'd say LA.
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Quoting Dakster:
Can someone tell me who needs a strong hurricane at the moment?

Not anyone in the North Atlantic... We would like a Category 1 or Tropical storm... Nothing more.
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132



Getting act together near Jamaica... Trough still in place over the Great Plains into Texas... How will this run end?
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Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, both are true actually.

She's gorgeous and I've always thought so. Plus she's at least double degree, so a lot smarter than most people I know.

The weather channel(NBC), scripts them... So Im sure she could be saying a lot more SMARTER things... But they dumb her down ;)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I remember when the first band ofWe lost power for a while because PR has the most pathetic power grid in the Caribbean. Irene hit. It came back 30 minutes later only for the storm's main rain bands to hit us later that evening and knock out power for 4 days.



"The most pathetic power grid in the Caribbean"
you should come to DR.
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Can someone tell me who needs a strong hurricane at the moment?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
RTS......That's because you think she is a hottie..... Nothing to do with the letter "I"...........LOL



Well, both are true actually.

She's gorgeous and I've always thought so. Plus she's at least double degree, so a lot smarter than most people I know.

I like smarter women, or authority even.

If she's both hot and can teach me something, then so much the better.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting GetReal:
120



Texas or Louisiana bound this run???

Bring it on... As long as it doesn't bomb out to a category 3+.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Could be Jamaica bound:

Good call.
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thanks for the explanation guys. 950mb and a cat 1 is crazy thats why it felt worse than a cat 1. looks like the GFS takes it into jamaica now 0_0
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Why do you say that Easy? Every storm is different

Every storm is different in structure and strength but atmospheric conditions do become established over time in any given season and these patterns are followed. This is NOT a season for strikes across the US coastline. Either the southerly track that we have seen many times this year or the recuvature out to sea.
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Quoting mobileshadow:


I would like to think that my track record this season and past seasons speaks for itself . I look at climatology and many other factors before I make a call on a system. I know that the bulk of the people on this site want to see a storm hit the US and heck if I was greedy I would want the same thing since I own a generator business and have several weather related sites that make money when we have tropical action. It's sad that people on here want to be imature and start calling somebody a troll cause there opinion differs with theirs. Well off to the coast to do some streaming of waterspouts :)


Troll. *Poof*
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120



Texas or Louisiana bound this run???
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Those people in Hispanola don't need another system as some are still recovering from the earthquake.Flooding would be terrible.

Hurricane Tomas was a bad enough ordeal, coming just 10 months after the Earthquake, at least now, they've had a year and a half to recover.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Sorry for the double post, but I intend this to be read, and it's at the bottom of the previous page.


200. RTSplayer 4:04 PM GMT on August 19, 2012 0


For 94L, revise my timing for TD/TS classification down 6 hours, so 18 to 24 hours from the 8a.m.

Mid level conditions has improved since I woke up this morning, and it should make better upper level conditions tomorrow morning, rather than tomorrow noon or afternoon as I thought earlier.


Heather Tesch on TWC pointed out the "I" storm anomaly during the Tropical Update, so I think they are in line with the notion that it will "probably" become a strong storm, based on above average statistics in the past few decades.
RTS......That's because you think she is a hottie..... Nothing to do with the letter "I"...........LOL
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well that's an efficient way to save power.The general public won't mind at all! /sarcasm
I already lost a tv when the lights suddenly go off that is why I never use my computer ;) I am using the one that all of my family member use.
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IT looks like 94L is moving WSW ,maybe to the low to it's south west could be possible that this low has a lower pressure than 94L.
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Quoting Levi32:


Irene weakened because of dry air that ripped out the core, making the winds weak despite the Cat 3-like pressure.

NC definately got lucky with her, last year... Could've been MUCH worse..
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I absolutely don't want future Isaac in the GOMEX. I don't think that would work out so well...
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Those people in Hispanola don't need another system as some are still recovering from the earthquake.Flooding would be terrible.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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