94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 463 - 413

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

463. JLPR2
Quoting LargoFl:


SSD EAtl image just went back in time 4 years. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there a point to posting these computer runs, up to 15 days out, right as they get spit out of the computer? Beyond five days the forecast with each run is about as accurate as reading tea leaves, unless I am missing something?

But reading this blog, one would get the impression that each and every one of these computer model runs is as accurate as measuring the precise times of sunrise and sunset for each day of the forecast. I guess it is fun to fantasize but history tells us that the accuracy factor just isn't there at all. I'm just sayin'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Every time I review this blog I all ways think of the song Human by Human League.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
Quoting LargoFl:

Why are you posting an image of the East Atlantic from 5 years ago?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
we could see 70 or 80% with 94L at 2pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Remnant low, center of Helene, is being sucked into those thunderstorms..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
U think NHC will color code it a 2pm?




not sure un likey
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Quoting Tazmanian:



will need too keep a eye on it
U think NHC will color code it a 2pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS 5 day forecast seems to indicate that maybe the remnants of Helene or maybe even Helene regenerated could make it across the Gulf and hit the big bend area
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:



Radar would seem to confirm that center is off the coast.



will need too keep a eye on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792

Radar would seem to confirm that center is off the coast.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing to get enthused about with ex Helen. Just a temporary flare up and will diminish
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
U think they wil color code it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
448. 7544
Quoting GetReal:


IMO just off the coast NE of Tampico.


looks to be moving east along with the mess over the gulf states
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T. PETERSBURG --
The Bay News 9 weather team is keeping an eye on a tropical wave thousands of miles away in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

According to meteorologist Josh Linker, the large system west of the Cape Verde Islands could develop into the next named storm - Isaac - within a couple of days.

Computer models have the system tracking west toward the Caribbean Sea. If it reaches the Caribbean as a tropical storm, it could become a threat to the southeastern United States, including Florida.
But it's way too early to get nervous, meteorologist Linker said.
"There's a whole lot of uncertainty here because we don't yet know where it will develop and how it will develop," he said. "But with what's out there, it does appear it could develop and move to the west in the coming days."
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting GetReal:


IMO just off the coast NE of Tampico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Glass half full post...

At least the African monsoon should keep kicking out waves similar to what we're seeing for at least another two weeks.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
YEAH!!am "New kid on the block" from the islands,going to keep not one but two of my eyes to the east(folks language)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon Everyone!..12z GFS..mannnn!!!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


there is no reason why it should not

so yeah it will still be Helene
Where is the center at? It loks better now before it got named. Will the color code it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
I thought Helene Remenet Low is in Mexico where is it at right now?


IMO just off the coast NE of Tampico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Felix2007:

Is it still gonna be named Helene if it develops?


there is no reason why it should not

so yeah it will still be Helene
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11277
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well look on the bright side..at least Texas can get some beneficial rains...


Rains = Yes!

Storm Surge = No thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strong tropical wave (SW of 94L) is basically elongating 94L's LL vort and also helping it to stay further north.

IF this does not lose some latitude like the GFS is saying, it will have to deal with a forward speed of 20 knots, TUTT interaction, and continued dry air entrainment.

Otherwise, this looks remarkably similar to 97L (Pre-Irene) of last year.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steering for intensity ranges predicted by the models. Remember, this changes every 3 hours...

1000mb



990mb



970mb



950mb




Is not re-curving before it reaches the islands. Even then, it will only re-curve if the high migrates some to the east.

It will not be strong enough to pass through the weaknesses between the ridges...no way would that happen...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


Will the NHC whip out the crayons???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ok what to take from this run, it's just one run, and so we have to now look for consistency, but what constitutes consistency? Because early on when this system was over Africa the GFS was showing this recurve out to sea for a couple runs, then the idea changed to an east coast hit for a couple runs, and then up until yesterday and the 06z runs dissipating the system in the GOM.


Blocking high will keep it going westward....trade winds will stifle development until it can reach the GOM, where it will then explode...after that will depend on current weather patterns down the road...most of the strong canes tend to make a nne turn before landfall...will be interesting along the Gulf Coast!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
433. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:
Meanwhile Ex-Helene about to reemerge into the Gulf.



Ironic that the convection looks nicer now than when it was named. :P

If it managed to redevelop it would be the third time the disturbance has managed classification.

Third time's the charm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont think it would be called Helene if it redevelops. Whatever is next on the list.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
431. 7544
chill to early to tell where 94l will end up let it get to a td first
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


Yes...
I thought Helene Remenet Low is in Mexico where is it at right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
H elene waves hello to everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting Felix2007:

Is it still gonna be named Helene if it develops?


Yes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
HFIP models




Tropical storm into the Caribbean





yep that seem to be correct and the I'd say hurricane in the central-western Caribbean and major hurricane in the extreme NW caribbean into GOM
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11277
Quoting Patrap:
..we're gonna need a Bigger Blog




"Will you go out to the end of the pulpit please?!?"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Meanwhile Ex-Helene about to reemerge into the Gulf.


Is it still gonna be named Helene if it develops?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We know it's a possibility.Who takes these models serious anyway???
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
It amazes me that no matter how many times we go through this, the runs of the forecast models still cause so much unneeded drama

I saw the 12Z GFS, it is certainly interesting. Could it happen? Absolutely, but it is one of many solutions that could. Freaking out over it like some are on here is not very constructive

94L looks pretty good, but to me it is clear that the Caribbean needs to watch this system FIRST, and then we can worry about where this may go after.

Also I would keep an eye on the remnants of Helene, much closer to home and could have an impact on the Gulf around the same time that 94L hits the Islands for the first time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some of the GFDL ensemble members show a stronger storm:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ASSUMPTION...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...
UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD AND
UPPER TERREBONNE. IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...
HARRISON AND JACKSON.

* UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* RAINFALL RATES MAY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND PUMPS...
RESULTING IN RAPID RUNOFF AND STREET FLOODING. LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING CAPABLE OF
STALLING CARS AND THREATENING HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting tropicfreak:
Meanwhile Ex-Helene about reemerge into the Gulf.
That has always been one of the possibilities
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile Ex-Helene about to reemerge into the Gulf.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It will also be nice when we get some drop sonde data into the models too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


Of a more immediate minor concern, Helene circulation center has re-emerged over the SW GOM just NE of Tampico slowly moving NE.... IMO
IS THAT TRUE!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1135 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CHOWAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHERN GATES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN HERTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN PERQUIMANS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1131 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HARRELLSVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GATESVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GATESVILLE AROUND 1145 AM EDT.
RYLAND AROUND 1155 AM EDT.
HOBBSVILLE AROUND NOON EDT.
SUNBURY AROUND 1205 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CARTER...SIGN PINE...GLIDEN...TROTVILLE...SANDY CROSS...HICKORY
CROSSROADS...PEACH...ACORN HILL...WHITESTON AND NICANOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting GetReal:


Of a more immediate minor concern, Helene circulation center has re-emerged over the SW GOM just NE of Tampico slowly moving NE.... IMO


I did say it earler
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11277

Viewing: 463 - 413

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
62 °F
Mostly Cloudy