94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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3163. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
3162. Michfan
Quoting txwcc:


Whoa there, horsey. ST2K was just stating that Levi never takes the time to plus comments he feel are worthwhile. Makes many wonder about how he feels.

That's all, Baha.


This isn't Reddit.
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3160. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
I think its a good idea, for PR to put the heavy rain warnings up for late this week
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Quoting txwcc:


There's a problem with that. No all of those storms were a category 4 crossing near Cayman.


only 3 of those where cat 3 and higher in the area and not all of them passes Cayman look I said possible track I did not say anything about intensity
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Morning All.

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its odd the ships shows a major hurricane but its in the carribean.. thoughts?
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3155. Michfan
Good morning everyone!

Looks like we have a convective blowup and with it now over warmer waters than yesterday it should be able to sustain it longer than it has been able to the past few days. The system is so large its really going to take a bit for it to consolidate. Latest 850 Vort:

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Mornin.

Seems like our canes are not having a good time thru the Atl. passing these past frew years.
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3153. LargoFl
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
The thing that irks me is Levi32 comes on here and doesn't plus not one comment from any other blogger on this blog but then everybody is supposed to respect his forecast. I listen to all people's opinions and enjoy listening to them but this guy thinks he's head honcho so much that no one here gets plussed by a great post which there are many on here from many "Great" bloggers.
What???? This is not the work of a mature poster. You plus because you feel like it. The [+] and [-] features are there for the use of bloggers, at their discretion. There are some bloggers who just don't use it at all.

I sure hope you aren't trying to say that the "best" forecasts are determined by how many social [+]s a blogger gets.... the fact that a lot of pple agree with you or are "friends" with you doesn't make you right....
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3151. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
3149. VR46L
Quoting StormTracker2K:


What will be funny is that run after run will show 94L going near or over FL but then everyone will still bash the GFS. Other than the 12Z run of the GFS it has show a storm either crossing or riding up FL 4 out of the last 5 runs. Further more the Euro brings 94L NE across S FL similar to Fay in 08.


Umm on Thursday and early friday it was a monster fish with the GFS . On Friday evening it was the East coast Monster then it was on a depression on saturday then yesterday it was to wreak havoc on NOLA and Houston and the last night and today it was Florida and convention Doom .they have no idea at the moment and are offering so many solutions they are going to get one right



94L IN RAINBOW

What will you become ? shrugg

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3147. LargoFl
Quoting Jeff9645:
The rainy season is upon us full force here in FL!

yes it sure is
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*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial
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3145. Patrap
The next entry should find it's way here as the 12 Z runs are static,...


Dr. Masters always waits for the current obs and runs before updating.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting RTSplayer:


Right, cuz eight of the eleven strongest storms on record went through the Caribbean at some point.

The pattern is different.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32353
Pretty much just a year ago...


Today..


Odd...
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3142. SLU
The 00z 08/18 run of the GFS at 150hr showed a substantial hurricane entering the Caribbean.

The same 00z 08/18 run of the EURO at 144hr showed an open wave with a moderate windshift south of DR.

So far there's nothing to suggest 94L will be anywhere close to hurricane strength by the time it gets to 60w.
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3141. Patrap
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But what exactly is carbon sequestration, and what is its role in the global carbon cycle?

How can we manage soils to capitalize on their ability to store carbon?

And what are the costs and trade offs of these activities?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

UGH!
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3138. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right guys I have 14 storm track that 94L may follow sometime during its life time















Pt2 come up
You should put names and dates with those tracks WKC..It would help determine what patterns were in place when the storm occurred.
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Pt2













Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
3136. Patrap
Here comes the Sun...


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
3134. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Chiggy:
Latest TCHP:


Not pretty.
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94LLC no longer naked. Could be strengthening soon.
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right guys I have 14 storm track that 94L may follow sometime during its life time















Pt2 come up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I believe the UKMET/CMC/HWRF combo seem to have the better handle on this storm IMO.



works for me
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The Euro doesn't get any praise either, it was also saying this would have been approaching cane status today. The GFS and Euro stopped showing that at the same time. They both failed with this system.


Since when do global models nail TC cyclogenesis........
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3126. Chiggy
Latest TCHP:
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3125. Grothar
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AL, 94, 2012082012, 156N, 448W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 95, 2012082012, 232N, 972W, 20, 1008, DB
AL, 96, 2012082012, 127N, 255W, 25, 1010, DB
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I see a FAY coming
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 100 knot hurricane is not going through the Caribbean.


Right, cuz eight of the eleven strongest storms on record went through the Caribbean at some point.
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If this new burst can grow and sustain itself, we have a TD.

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06Z HWRF took a liking to 94L


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3119. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM now going up 100KT or 115MPH
..boy that GFS continues to put whatever it becomes, up florida's west coast
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Man oh man you Florida casters need to just put a lid on it. NO FLA STORM. not even gonna form. Well that is what I want to hear... I don't want to call Dr. M. a jinx but!!! we will see.
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3117. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
One thing is certain, warmer waters ahead for 94L. The moisture content over the Caribbean is sufficient for development.
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3116. Grothar
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 100 knot hurricane is not going through the Caribbean.


This isn't even a TD yet, and school kids are saying where its going (or not) as a 100kt storm. The only thing you can know at this point is the longer the blob stays a blob, the farther west it's going vs north-west.

You'll need to wait until at least Friday until you get a chance of any decent forecast showing a 10 percent chance of any FL landfall.
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3114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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3113. Grothar
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.