94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ex-Helene could become a TD at most I'd say so I don't know if the name would be needed but anything could happen I just find it odd to renumber it to 95L its just odd anyway I think 94L will take the I name



this is not Ex-Helene this is a fully new storm and likey get a new name
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Quoting aspectre:
343 Patrap: ...we're gonna need a Bigger Blog

Nah, just an auto-ban for anyone who posts a model showing more than 120hours whenever there is an active TropicalCyclone.
Irritating as heck scrolling through the wishcasters who're always glomming onto the "next TC" cuz the presentday storm is never NASTY enough.


+1000, I brought up that exact ban scenario a few days ago. But freedom of speech and freedom of foolishness always wins :(
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Quoting Patrap:
gee Pat your really getting it over there today huh

The potential for Flooding exist for a large swath along the Gulf coast.





Plus the synoptic pattern ain't going anywhere fast.

And toss in Helene's blossoming.

Concern is warranted downstream the next 72.







And wow, knew we had a lot here, Houma washed right off that WU radar map!

Had 4.47" total yesterday... putting my current YTD total at 63.77", matching / exceeding expected normal yearly rainfall amount by Aug 18th...

And not counting another near .80" in the gauge from this morn's "light rains"...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you have to shove it in our face? :).


That's my Job I thought?

: )
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East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting 7544:


yep u think nne or ne on this one or maybe even west again lol p



will see
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Ex-Helene could become a TD at most I'd say so I don't know if the name would be needed but anything could happen I just find it odd to renumber it to 95L its just odd anyway I think 94L will take the I name
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Its a new storm so it will not be name Helene anyways it could be Isaac or Joyce depends but it will likely bring rain to the needy places.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like another tropical thunder storm developing off Mexico wonder if they'll name this one.

If this blob in the Gulf develops, will they call it Helene again or Isaac? If it becomes Issac, then 94L could become Joyce. That would break the curse of the "I" storms and give us an interesting "J" storm to track. Haven't had an interesting J storm since 2004.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Afternoon all.....could someone turn off the windshield wipers with 94L models please.
im trying LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
This a Perfect reason whey we NEVER call any Tropical Entity "pre" anything.


Do you have to shove it in our face? :).
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343 Patrap: ...we're gonna need a Bigger Blog

Nah, just an auto-ban for anyone who posts a model run showing more than 120hours whenever there is an active TropicalCyclone.
Irritating as heck scrolling through the wishcasters who're always glomming onto the "next TC" cuz the presentday storm is never NASTY enough.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
550. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:
cant wait too see some mode runs for 95L


yep u think nne or ne on this one or maybe even west again lol p
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Quoting Patrap:
This a Bad situ, all around.

Really Bad August Mojo.


..be careful Pat, there's going to be some awful flooding there and along the whole nothern gulf coast later on when the lakes and rivers overflow, one report in mississippi said over a foot of rain has fallen already..stay safe ok
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This a Perfect reason whey we NEVER call any Tropical Entity "pre" anything.


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cant wait too see some mode runs for 95L
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Afternoon all.....could someone turn off the windshield wipers with 94L models please.
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Quoting want2lrn:


The left overs from Helene seem to be firing up again. Do any of you foresee that area moving North up here into central South Texas (Corpus Christi) and giving us some desperately needed rain? Thank you for the responses.



Unfortunately it does not look like you will get the amount of rain y'all need from this system. Bulk of precip should stay east of you.
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Got almost 2 inches of rain! First good downpour since May 15th.

The downside: I slept through the whole thing :(
We have rain up here in D.C to.Been dark and gloomy all day long.But I'am not complaining because we could use every drop that we get.
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Hum It will get a whole new name.



yep
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This a Bad situ, all around.

Really Bad August Mojo.


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Quoting Tazmanian:



looks this is new
Hum It will get a whole new name.
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Quoting Dakster:
Texas cannot get a break can they...

It's either extreme drought or flooding. And when the rain comes it takes buildings with it.
Depending on where you live this is very True, remember this is a Huge state. Last 2 days several lines of storms got close to me, some people got alot of rain, several got little to none. It isnt just Texas though that is our Weather of Extremes throughout the USA.
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
That is the Rements of Helene right?



looks this is new
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Quoting want2lrn:


Thank you for your input Athome, what part of Tx are you in?


You're welcome. I'm on the upper TX coast on the TX/LA border.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Where is that at in Atlantic?
Gulf of Mexico
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well look on the bright side..at least Texas can get some beneficial rains...


Got almost 2 inches of rain! First good downpour since May 15th.

The downside: I slept through the whole thing :(
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
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Quoting Tazmanian:




gulf
That is the Rements of Helene right?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but there is a NOAA GIV flight scheduled for Tuesday evening.


Is this the same flight Dr. Masters mentions in his blog above?
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Looks like the gulf at 25.1N 98W
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we have 95L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Bringing out the crayons... Now which color??? Decisions, decisions....
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Where is that at in Atlantic?




gulf
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which means this would be a totally new system if it were to develop



yep
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's got to be what the CMC is showing here. Doesn't look very organized but hopefully will give you some rain. :)



Thank you for your input Athome, what part of Tx are you in?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we have 95L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Where is that at in Atlantic?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we have 95L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


which means this would be a totally new system if it were to develop
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Quoting bappit:


Well he could always put those people on ignore, but I think they are posted because people genuinely want to see what the forecast models say

who cares how far out it goes? It does not mean that most are taking it as the gospel or freaking out over it. No extra knowledge ever did any harm to anyone as long as you realize it is just a possibility.
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we have 95L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Yeah, not sure what the hubbubs about. Most people on here just like to see the possibilities the models show. Most have been doing this long enough to know they're too far out or not that reliable before something's formed, but just like the map runs. Also interesting to see if any do indeed pan out in the end I suppose...modern technology against nature and all. Anyway, they're easy enough to scroll past if you don't want to look at them
Agreed.People all ways cause drama coming in here and telling people the obvious..
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Well...

The wave ahead of 94L is trying a sneak attack to steal the "I" name.
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Quoting LargoFl:
major florida on the gulf coast, over a foot of rain has fallen already and More to come newspaper reports say..


Is that a Major Flood on the Florida Gulf Coast? Or a Major Flood somewhere else on the gulf coast?

I know it is a typo, just trying to figure it out is all.
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Quoting Patrap:


Somewhere a Mayan Stone Carver is chuckling heartily.


There are now 123 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
And I'm going to wake the next morning and continue to enjoy the winter holidays with my family :) with not a single then going all whacky.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:
Is there a point to posting these computer runs, up to 15 days out, right as they get spit out of the computer? Beyond five days the forecast with each run is about as accurate as reading tea leaves, unless I am missing something?

But reading this blog, one would get the impression that each and every one of these computer model runs is as accurate as measuring the precise times of sunrise and sunset for each day of the forecast. I guess it is fun to fantasize but history tells us that the accuracy factor just isn't there at all. I'm just sayin'
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Interesting to note that if 94L does not form before it hits 40W, this will not be known as a "Cape Verde Storm". Anything at or before 40W is a "Cape Verde Storm".
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We know it's a possibility.Who takes these models serious anyway???


Yeah, not sure what the hubbubs about. Most people on here just like to see the possibilities the models show. Most have been doing this long enough to know they're too far out or not that reliable before something's formed, but just like the map runs. Also interesting to see if any do indeed pan out in the end I suppose...modern technology against nature and all. Anyway, they're easy enough to scroll past if someone doesn't want to look at them
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94L's LLCOC looks to be located near 14.9N 38.5W moving WSW-S of due W looking better and better as the hours go by should see some strong word from the NHC soon
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Uh-oh. The southwestern tip of Australia has warmer SSTs than its southeastern tip. This, upon a cursory glance combined with information of a trending positive IOD, and neutral-to-weak El Nino suggests that drought is likely not only in the United States, but in Australia.

Really cool graphics.
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major florida on the gulf coast, over a foot of rain has fallen already and More to come newspaper reports say..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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