94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Violent thunderstorms will continue to threaten communities from Norfolk, Va., to Charleston, S.C., into this afternoon.

Damaging winds and downpours are the greatest dangers from the powerful thunderstorms targeting far southeastern Virginia and the eastern Carolinas.

The strength of the winds could lead to tree and structural damage. Falling trees bring additional damage and bodily harm risks depending on where they land. Meanwhile, downpours pose hazards to both residents and motorists.

Driving will become difficult as the heavy bursts of rain dramatically reduce visibility and cause water to pond on roadways, which heightens the risk of vehicles hydroplaning at highway speeds.

Low-lying and poor drainage areas are susceptible to flash flooding problems.

A few of the thunderstorms will drop hail, as one did earlier this morning north of Roanoke Rapids, N.C. Penny-sized hail fell.

The stage is also set for one or two tornadoes to touch down and cause destruction.

In addition to Norfolk and Charleston, other communities at risk for today's strong thunderstorms include Rocky Mount, Fayetteville and Wilmington, N.C., and Florence and Myrtle Beach, S.C.

The storm system sparking the violent thunderstorms is also responsible for bringing this weekend to a close on a dreary note across the mid-Atlantic as soaking thunderstorms rumble across the Deep South and southern Texas.




Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
94L looks pretty organized to me...and very close to tropical depression status.
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Comments on 95L...


I can't believe they are considering naming a Thunder Storm for a second time...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
No I all ways thought you were a guy.Just something about it made it obvious.


Lol, I might keep on using CT. Just a thought.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, seems like it's new. Helene's 850mb vort dissipated inland in Mexico, this one is new. Maybe Helene's remnants provided some moisture.
Agree, definelty Helene's remnats provided the amount of energy for this new entity...but isn't the same, so deserves if it develops deserves a new name.
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Quoting want2lrn:


As long as it is just rain, not interested in anything that has a wind component to it.


I hear ya there. Maybe it will just stay weak and drift into south TX.
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Quoting Patrap:


I really don't like this run, Patrap. Good thing there's time for it to change, not that I want it to head your way instead of mine.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Good question, right now I doubt will develop, but I'm fairly certain the digging long wave trof will pull most of the moisture into the N Gulf region over next 24-48 hrs... Just where it's not needed!


Ooofh.

Thanx,


I think.

; )

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Quoting Patrap:
We may need a bigger Bucket too.


its beginning to add up
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea. Also, I'm probably going to in the future stop using my WU account in favor of a new one. Rather tired of everyone thinking I'm a female.
No I all ways thought you were a guy.Just something about it made it obvious.
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Quoting Patrap:



I hope things kinda fizzle Doc,

But looking at the flow...,

What ya think? A Coastal runner into the N, by NW, or will 95L feeling the, er"chute" opening?











Good question, right now I doubt will develop, but I'm fairly certain the digging long wave trof will pull most of the moisture into the N Gulf region over next 24-48 hrs... Just where it's not needed!
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Quoting allancalderini:
You mean Matthew and Nicole right?


Yea. Also, I'm probably going to in the future stop using my WU account in favor of a new one. Rather tired of everyone thinking I'm a female.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah we've been getting a whole lot of rain since last winter. Hopefully what is now 95l will bring your area some rain.


As long as it is just rain, not interested in anything that has a wind component to it.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, please, please remember that the model is showing something over 10 days out. I fail to see the point in focusing on a run that far out when just yesterday it was showing a major hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. The GFS is just showing a possibility not a guarantee.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


It's not as bad as the radar looks. The ditches aren't even half full.

We could take another 5 inches before it even matters.


yes because its steady rain
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Gustav hits Cuba and turns into Ike.




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GOM gumbeaux; don't forget the jalapenos!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


That's a load of crap, an auto ban from the blog because of that? So what if someone posts a forecast model? If you don't like it, go do something else or put that person on ignore, but to suggest that someone get banned because of that is way more dumb then someone posting a forecast model.


Also just because we post the longer range models does not mean we are wish-casting or freaking out, we are looking at them for reference. Maybe if some of you who are criticizing us actually read the blog, you would see that most of us take the forecast models with a grain of salt and realize that they are just a guide, then maybe you wouldn't comment so much about how this bothers you.
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We may need a bigger Bucket too.
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Well, well

Looks like its another big race for the "I" storm,

In one corner, invest 94L, with 70% chance of development and perfect anticyclone, but with huge cyclonic gyre, which could slow development.

On the other, newly christened invest 95L, which appeared to be the merger of mid level circulation of helene and the surface trough, hence the new invest designation and not EX Helene. It has 20 % chance of development, but in the past few hours, convection is blossoming nicely and might pull the low level vorticity that is currently inland. Moreover, its in the area that is notorious for quick development.

Who will win the race?

Please stay tuned :)
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You know, I think the forecasters at NHC just sit round playing games on their iphones and going on FB...and when the time comes to update - they just scan this blog to see what the general consensus is...and then decide to go with that...or a bit different just to annoy the bloggers ;p
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Your 4.7 Doc, matches up nicely on the Totals shown down yer Houma way
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New Orleans Radar
NEXRAD

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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Quoting DocNDswamp:


And wow, knew we had a lot here, Houma washed right off that WU radar map!

Had 4.47" total yesterday... putting my current YTD total at 63.77", matching / exceeding expected normal yearly rainfall amount by Aug 18th...

And not counting another near .80" in the gauge from this morn's "light rains"...


We kind of lucked out a bit... if that nearly-station front had stalled about 100 miles farther north, all of that tropical moisture could have caused much more substantial flooding in more sensitive areas.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Might have something with 95L in the future *if* it can stay overwater as it gradually begins to drift north. This situation reminds me of the Matthew/Lisa and Lee/Nate situations, both where split off energy from the former that eventually became the latter systems.
You mean Matthew and Nicole right?
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It all started with Ernesto...
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no mode runs yet for 95L
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Quoting want2lrn:


Looks like yall got some pretty good rain up there this morning. We just must be in that hard to get to spot, but the water shed sure could use a good filling, not to mention my yard!


Yeah we've been getting a whole lot of rain since last winter. Hopefully what is now 95l will bring your area some rain.
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Quoting LargoFl:
days ago the gfs had it by nola..then thurs or so into florida, dunno if the gfs still does it the same route


Im speaking of 95L..not the Atlantic 94L.

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Quoting weatherh98:
yellow circle please:P


It's not as bad as the radar looks. The ditches aren't even half full.

We could take another 5 inches before it even matters.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Just like Levi's theory
I'm pretty sure is going to be a close call or over PR,as a strong TS or a Cat 1 hurricane, similar to Hortence in 1996,or Emily,2004; my take on this base only on climatology, experience, the possition of the ridge and amount of SAl in the atlantic.
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Can someone post the satellite pic of the Atlantic on July 25 just for old times sake :)?
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looks like the race is on to see which system gets to be named "Isaac"..
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580. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



this is not Ex-Helene this is a fully new storm and likey get a new name


Yeah, seems like it's new. Helene's 850mb vort dissipated inland in Mexico, this one is new. Maybe Helene's remnants provided some moisture.
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Quoting Patrap:



I hope things kinda fizzle Doc,

But looking at the flow...,

What ya think? A Coastal runner into the N, by NW, or will 95L feeling the, er"chute" opening?









days ago the gfs had it by nola..then thurs or so into florida, dunno if the gfs still does it the same route
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting AllyBama:
Pat, would you please stop posting those disturbing weather graphics!..lol..at least that "blob" is sitting closer to you than me!


I hear ya AllyBama.

Hope yer watching the flows here.

Dunno, I jus post um, I dont make um. : )

But we are aware and I know you are too.

A good day to make a few checks on Batteries, and other.

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Quoting aspectre:
343 Patrap: ...we're gonna need a Bigger Blog

Nah, just an auto-ban for anyone who posts a model run showing more than 120hours whenever there is an active TropicalCyclone.
Irritating as heck scrolling through the wishcasters who're always glomming onto the "next TC" cuz the presentday storm is never NASTY enough.


That's a load of crap, an auto ban from the blog because of that? So what if someone posts a forecast model? If you don't like it, go do something else or put that person on ignore, but to suggest that someone get banned because of that is way more dumb then someone posting a forecast model.
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Might have something with 95L in the future *if* it can stay overwater as it gradually begins to drift north. This situation reminds me of the Matthew/Lisa and Lee/Nate situations, both where split off energy from the former that eventually became the latter systems.
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yellow circle please:P
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I'd say it's close to tropical depression status. A buoy south of 94L's center confirms a closed circulation.

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95L could get too the I storm 1st
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Quoting yonzabam:



They've got a West Nile fever outbreak in the Dallas area. The city was sprayed from the air with insecticide the other day to kill the mosquitoes that spread it. First time in half a century Dallas has been sprayed with insecticide from planes.

This rain will provide perfect breeding conditions for the mosquitoes. Sometimes, you just can't win.
yes for sure, that west nile can be very dangerous too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting 7544:
96l next on the list comin soon



yep it could be the wave be hid 94L
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


And wow, knew we had a lot here, Houma washed right off that WU radar map!

Had 4.47" total yesterday... putting my current YTD total at 63.77", matching / exceeding expected normal yearly rainfall amount by Aug 18th...

And not counting another near .80" in the gauge from this morn's "light rains"...



I hope things kinda fizzle Doc,

But looking at the flow...,

What ya think? A Coastal runner into the N, by NW, or will 95L feeling the, er"chute" opening?









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569. 7544
96l next on the list comin soon
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Quoting Dakster:


Is that a Major Flood on the Florida Gulf Coast? Or a Major Flood somewhere else on the gulf coast?

I know it is a typo, just trying to figure it out is all.
yes sorry, didnt catch it..yes "flooding" on the gulf coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You're welcome. I'm on the upper TX coast on the TX/LA border.


Looks like yall got some pretty good rain up there this morning. We just must be in that hard to get to spot, but the water shed sure could use a good filling, not to mention my yard!
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Pat, would you please stop posting those disturbing weather graphics!..lol..at least that "blob" is sitting closer to you than me!
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Quoting Patrap:
This a Bad situ, all around.

Really Bad August Mojo.




Hi Pat, flood advisories like crazy here! Water is almost at my front door
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Quoting LargoFl:
Storms flood streets, collapse buildings in Dallas

Aug. 19, 2012, 8:48 a.m. CDT

The Dallas Morning News



DALLAS (AP) — Strong thunderstorms dumping as much as 4 inches of rain have flooded streets, trapped drivers and collapsed buildings in Dallas.

The storms rolled over the city on Saturday night. National Weather Service meteorologist Jesse Moore says some areas got as much as 4 inches of rain.

Authorities have not confirmed any deaths related to the storms, but people told WFAA-TV they saw a man fall into a creek and get swept away about 7 p.m.

The Dallas Morning News says two building collapses have been reported, including a partial cave-in at the Urban Inter-Tribal Center of Texas.

The newspaper also says Dallas Fire-Rescue rescued one driver trapped in high water near the city's downtown, and several were stranded in flooded streets near Baylor University Medical Center.

___

Information from: The Dallas Morning News, http://www.dallasnews.com



They've got a West Nile fever outbreak in the Dallas area. The city was sprayed from the air with insecticide the other day to kill the mosquitoes that spread it. First time in half a century Dallas has been sprayed with insecticide from planes.

This rain will provide perfect breeding conditions for the mosquitoes. Sometimes, you just can't win.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ex-Helene could become a TD at most I'd say so I don't know if the name would be needed but anything could happen I just find it odd to renumber it to 95L its just odd anyway I think 94L will take the I name



this is not Ex-Helene this is a fully new storm and likey get a new name
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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