94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 663 - 613

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Quoting Hurricanes101:


That's a load of crap, an auto ban from the blog because of that? So what if someone posts a forecast model? If you don't like it, go do something else or put that person on ignore, but to suggest that someone get banned because of that is way more dumb then someone posting a forecast model.
posting them models pass 144hrs is a lot of wasted space
not to mention a waste of time but hey thats only my opinion


good afternoon to the blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one have the mode runs for 95L


I got this when I looked it up.

:Hurricane Gordon | Disturbance (Invest 94L)
Disturbance (Invest 95L)
Tropical Atlantic

Analysis & Forecasts
Our Products
Other Areas
About Us

Sunday, August 19, 2012 18:15 GMT
Current Storms - Archive - Historical Statistics - Help - Backup Site
Atlantic:
Hurricane Gordon - 85 knots, Disturbance (Invest 94L) - 25 knots, Disturbance (Invest 95L) - 20 knots
East Pacific:
Disturbance (Invest 96E) - 25 knots
Error:
We do not have model data for this storm yet.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Uptown, near Jeff And Magazine.



o ok actual new orleans
i live in a small town called lockport a little closer to the coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
659. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting SaladTosser:
Don't know much about the tropics...but I thought that this was a EL Nino year? I thought activity was limited in these years? I'm confused?



For one, the wind directions & rain patterns haven't begun to respond to the El Niño conditions that have just showed in region 3,4 in the Pacific. I takes about a 3 month span from first conditions til the atmosphere around the earth responds & brings El Niño weather about the earth. It's also not coming on real strong so the effects probably aren't going to be all that extreme. CONUS should start seeing rain again in Oct. More El Niño years than not have less activity but it's not a given. 2004 was a weak el niño.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Not trying to be a provocateur here but does anyone thing the wave at 10n 50w can development in tandem with 94L. There awfully close but to me the wave seems to want to develop also.


That one's in the ICTZ so would have more trouble spinning up but I see your point, especially on recent satellite image.

If you zoom in on this, Link WV Loop CATL, you can see the one in front is more wave-like and less spin-like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Um, I never said we should ban anyone, so don't put that question on me....


no but you reacted to my post that reacted to that, it is all connected

some are saying we should envoke a ban on someone who posts a forecast model beyond 5 days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well that was a quick recovery for 94L, and the remnants of Helene merging with a stalled front look to be doing some quick action of their own. We could have two tropical systems tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one will get named first?.I can't watch!..Lol.

chances are the one at 70% gets named before the 20%er.
But then again it's the GOM in mid-August so all bets are off. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting justsouthofnola:
the rain we have now is worse than a tropical storm....
the i named storms really don't like us here on the gulf coast. TWC just said that 7 storms since 2001 have been retired 6 of which have impacted here in Louisiana.
if we were to go off climatology then isaac has got our number.
side note patrap what area exactly you from?


Uptown, near Jeff And Magazine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yes for sure, that west nile can be very dangerous too


Fortunately though, roughly 90% of those who actually contract the West Nile virus either feel no symptoms at all or just mild "flu like" symptoms.

Of the remainder, only about 10% develop the serious complications from the disease (1% of total infections). WNV is not as dangerous as St. Louis encephalitis or Equine encephalitis, and especially the latter one is present to a limited extent during each summer season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and because of those few idiots, we should envoke a ban for anyone who posts a forecast model beyond 5 days?

That is just stupid IMO


Um, I never said we should ban anyone, so don't put that question on me....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
We may get 16 to 17 name storms if activity continues like this.
Still calling for 15.So much for another dud El nino season..we sure are ahead of schedule...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not trying to be a provocateur here but does anyone thing the wave at 10n 50w can development in tandem with 94L. There awfully close but to me the wave seems to want to develop also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


You might be using them as reference, but a lot of people aren't and visitors that read them aren't either. They are used mostly to argue with each other about how one particular model agrees with their forecast. It then turns into a macho-man egotistical discussion about who has the better 'theory'. The intelligent, reasonable bloggers like yourself and a few others understand the complexity of tropical weather forecasting and thus you post accordingly, but for the rest, well you can't fix stupid. It's the same deal over and over again everyday. I've been here for 8 years reading it.

I just like to focus to be on the tropical systems we have out there already affecting real lives, like Gordon out in the central Atlantic, or even new 95L in the W-ern Gulf of Mexico. Once we get a cyclone from these blobs and shows signs of threatening land areas, then I'm as happy as anyone else is to discuss models and everything else.


I watch the blog, MOST use them for reference, its just those few idiots that freak out. So ignore those and move on, don't prevent others from posting what they want because of those few
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one will get named first?.I can't watch!..Lol.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Hang in there.
I bring the popcorn who brings the drinks ?lol XD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L getting MUCH better organized now based on visible satellite loops. Should see tropical cyclone formation within 24 hours if trends continue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the rain we have now is worse than a tropical storm....
the i named storms really don't like us here on the gulf coast. TWC just said that 7 storms since 2001 have been retired 6 of which have impacted here in Louisiana.
if we were to go off climatology then isaac has got our number.
side note patrap what area exactly you from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lol, I might keep on using CT. Just a thought.


I always thought Teddy is a short form of Theodore. Can't imagine you being otherwise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaladTosser:
Don't know much about the tropics...but I thought that this was a EL Nino year? I thought activity was limited in these years? I'm confused?


Has to be either 3 or 5 months of "el nino conditions" before it even counts, I forget which.

We don't have el nino conditions anyway, even though the E. Pac has some el nino characteristics.


Therefore this is a neutral-positive year, which is actually the most favorable for development, according to climatology.

Some of the E.Pac near the nino zones has actually cooled in the past several days.




Edit:

Because I expected this pattern, I had expected 15 named storms with an "early and often" pattern, even back in March or February.

I figure we may still see 3 to 5 majors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


I decided to come out of my hiatus to respond to this.

Most might use the models for "reference", but there were several on here the other night freaking out and being dramatic when the GFS was showing a powerful hurricane hitting the islands. There were "Omg, I'm scared" and "Omg, I'm so excited" comments. The point I was trying to make before everyone went nuts is that the models could easily change since the system had yet to develop. What do you know? They are now showing something totally different. Yes, my comment about the islands was over the top and I apologize for that. However, don't sit here and say that everyone uses it just for reference. I've been around here too long to know that statement is bogus.


and because of those few idiots, we should envoke a ban for anyone who posts a forecast model beyond 5 days?

That is just stupid IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:



94L has had a little anticyclone over it all day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaladTosser:
Don't know much about the tropics...but I thought that this was a EL Nino year? I thought activity was limited in these years? I'm confused?


That's a fair question being thrown around the last few weeks. Originally, a lot of people including myself thought so, even after we got Debby that this would be an semi-inactive year, because early season activity doesn't normally mean much unless they all develop in the deep tropics, which only Debby did. Now, we're talking about the possibility of having Isaac later this week, and all the storms since Debby have been fully tropical. That leads to the question as to how this season could be so active if conditions are so unfavorable. One thing is that the shear in the tropical atlantic is about average to below average, this *could* be contributed to the fact that the Nino 1+2 region has dive bombed back into cool anomalies around the same time we started seeing all this activity this month.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One newspaper in Mississippi said they have recieved a foot of rain so far...ok...so How much Water does that PUT on the ground..such as lakes and rivers?..........How much stormwater does 1 inch of rain on 1 acre make?

Volume = Area x Height
= 1 acre x 1 inch
= 1 acre x 43,560 ft2 / 1 acre (known fact) x 1 inch x 1 foot / 12 inches
→ Volume of 1 inch of rain on 1 acre = 3,630 ft3

Even though large volumes of water use are expressed in cubic feet, let’s convert cubic feet to familiar gallons.

7.481 gallons / 1 ft3 (known fact) x 3,630 ft3

= 27,156 gallons!
FOLKS that if for one inch OF RAIN...HOW MUCH IS IT FOR A foot OF RAIN AND EVEN MORE COMING..geez..going to be some good flooding all along the gulf coast when this is all over with
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37050
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Also just because we post the longer range models does not mean we are wish-casting or freaking out, we are looking at them for reference. Maybe if some of you who are criticizing us actually read the blog, you would see that most of us take the forecast models with a grain of salt and realize that they are just a guide, then maybe you wouldn't comment so much about how this bothers you.


You might be using them as reference, but a lot of people aren't and visitors that read them aren't either. They are used mostly to argue with each other about how one particular model agrees with their forecast. It then turns into a macho-man egotistical discussion about who has the better 'theory'. The intelligent, reasonable bloggers like yourself and a few others understand the complexity of tropical weather forecasting and thus you post accordingly, but for the rest, well you can't fix stupid. It's the same deal over and over again everyday. I've been here for 8 years reading it.

I just like to focus to be on the tropical systems we have out there already affecting real lives, like Gordon out in the central Atlantic, or even new 95L in the W-ern Gulf of Mexico. Once we get a cyclone from these blobs and shows signs of threatening land areas, then I'm as happy as anyone else is to discuss models and everything else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
dos any one have the mode runs for 95L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
94L


Seeing legs and body on 94L for the first time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Felix2007:


It's not officially El Nino yet, still in neutral conditions. It's supposed to develop by September though, although it's gonna be a weak one. Also, 2004 was an El Nino year which was active.
We may get 16 to 17 name storms if activity continues like this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Also just because we post the longer range models does not mean we are wish-casting or freaking out, we are looking at them for reference. Maybe if some of you who are criticizing us actually read the blog, you would see that most of us take the forecast models with a grain of salt and realize that they are just a guide, then maybe you wouldn't comment so much about how this bothers you.


I decided to come out of my hiatus to respond to this.

Most might use the models for "reference", but there were several on here the other night freaking out and being dramatic when the GFS was showing a powerful hurricane hitting the islands. There were "Omg, I'm scared" and "Omg, I'm so excited" comments. The point I was trying to make before everyone went nuts is that the models could easily change since the system had yet to develop. What do you know? They are now showing something totally different. Yes, my comment about the islands was over the top and I apologize for that. However, don't sit here and say that everyone uses it just for reference. I've been around here too long to know that statement is bogus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cmon 94L develop before 95!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one will get named first?.I can't watch!..Lol.


Lol. Hang in there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L appears as though it is quickly consolidating. I could see a tropical depression early tomorrow if this continues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WSW movement seems likely for 94L based on the steering
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Which one will get named first?.I can't watch!..Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaladTosser:
Don't know much about the tropics...but I thought that this was a EL Nino year? I thought activity was limited in these years? I'm confused?


It's not officially El Nino yet, still in neutral conditions. It's supposed to develop by September though, although it's gonna be a weak one. Also, 2004 was an El Nino year which was active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Comments on 95L...


I can't believe they are considering naming a Thunder Storm for a second time...


Well, all tropical cyclones are a collection of thunderstorms. Besides, if it starts developing spiral bands, has a uniform convection shape, and has a closed low level circulation and winds of 35mph+ it's a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I really don't like this run, Patrap. Good thing there's time for it to change, not that I want it to head your way instead of mine.
lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't know much about the tropics...but I thought that this was a EL Nino year? I thought activity was limited in these years? I'm confused?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good news for 94L


19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Comments on 95L...


I can't believe they are considering naming a Thunder Storm for a second time...


How about you wait until this plays out before you determine that...but I know you have had it in for this area for quite some time, since you wont let us forget about it lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Comments on 95L...


I can't believe they are considering naming a Thunder Storm for a second time...

Helene was a tropical storm, not a thunderstorm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From 2 p.m.:
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N36W TO 20N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N36W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 36W-39W TO THE NW OF THE LOW AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 36W-41W TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 18N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. EMBEDDED LARGELY WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH GYRE...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N47W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BROADENED OVER A LARGER AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE SAME WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED BETWEEN 70W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

Um...where' the new invest in here?
Link NHC 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I really don't like this run, Patrap. Good thing there's time for it to change, not that I want it to head your way instead of mine.


It will shake out by Mid week toward the weekend coming.

But climatology tells us to be aware of the possibilities too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Violent thunderstorms will continue to threaten communities from Norfolk, Va., to Charleston, S.C., into this afternoon.

Damaging winds and downpours are the greatest dangers from the powerful thunderstorms targeting far southeastern Virginia and the eastern Carolinas.

The strength of the winds could lead to tree and structural damage. Falling trees bring additional damage and bodily harm risks depending on where they land. Meanwhile, downpours pose hazards to both residents and motorists.

Driving will become difficult as the heavy bursts of rain dramatically reduce visibility and cause water to pond on roadways, which heightens the risk of vehicles hydroplaning at highway speeds.

Low-lying and poor drainage areas are susceptible to flash flooding problems.

A few of the thunderstorms will drop hail, as one did earlier this morning north of Roanoke Rapids, N.C. Penny-sized hail fell.

The stage is also set for one or two tornadoes to touch down and cause destruction.

In addition to Norfolk and Charleston, other communities at risk for today's strong thunderstorms include Rocky Mount, Fayetteville and Wilmington, N.C., and Florence and Myrtle Beach, S.C.

The storm system sparking the violent thunderstorms is also responsible for bringing this weekend to a close on a dreary note across the mid-Atlantic as soaking thunderstorms rumble across the Deep South and southern Texas.




Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37050

Viewing: 663 - 613

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
74 °F
Partly Cloudy