94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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so one inch of rain on an acre creates 1.3 feet of water on the ground..folks if you live downstream from any rivers or streams etc along the gulf coast and i guess right up the southern east coast, watch out for flooding..remember sometimes it takes the rivers days later to overflow from all the runoff......pay attention to how many inches of rain you have received and are still receiving ok..stay safe out there please..one person said they had water at their doorstep already, so many more reports like that are going to be said here maybe this coming week..and..there IS the possibility as these rivers are cresting etc..we MIGHT have something tropical in the gulf..giving us MORE rain huh............looked at my local park Lake yesterday..just from the rains yesterday..it went up about 2 feet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39201
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's a fair question being thrown around the last few weeks. Originally, a lot of people including myself thought so, even after we got Debby that this would be an semi-inactive year, because early season activity doesn't normally mean much unless they all develop in the deep tropics, which only Debby did. Now, we're talking about the possibility of having Isaac later this week, and all the storms since Debby have been fully tropical. That leads to the question as to how this season could be so active if conditions are so unfavorable. One thing is that the shear in the tropical atlantic is about average to below average, this *could* be contributed to the fact that the Nino 1+2 region has dive bombed back into cool anomalies around the same time we started seeing all this activity this month.


I heard something about varying degrees of EL Nino?? Did some research in the last few minutes - and I came across the 1997 Hurricane season which ended in early September wiht TS Erika. I guess that was a strong El Nino???
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Taking cover...yuk
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95L or should I say ex-Helene?

Link
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95L on the navy site


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Quoting MississippiWx:


I decided to come out of my hiatus to respond to this.

Most might use the models for "reference", but there were several on here the other night freaking out and being dramatic when the GFS was showing a powerful hurricane hitting the islands. There were "Omg, I'm scared" and "Omg, I'm so excited" comments. The point I was trying to make before everyone went nuts is that the models could easily change since the system had yet to develop. What do you know? They are now showing something totally different. Yes, my comment about the islands was over the top and I apologize for that. However, don't sit here and say that everyone uses it just for reference. I've been around here too long to know that statement is bogus.
I cant belive you bring that up again. Please give it a rest because is getting a little annoying now. OMG im scared because it shows a storm over PR and the funny part is than it still shows a system over PR and im worried. You are a respected blogger here and i do respect you and like your forecast but please stop this childish argument.
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Quoting Patrap:
961mb is about Category 3 status. If this were to pan out, it'd be the first major hurricane to make landfall in the USA in 7 years.
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706. JLPR2
94L's vort at the 18z map is a huge step backwards when compared to the 15z.

15z:


18z:


Very elongated and sort of linked to the TW to the west.
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Quoting Chicklit:

I think they are yanking your chain. Everybody knows you're a guy.


yea...I'm the one who's kinda confusing....
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Quoting atmosweather:


I'm not even that worried about the so-called 'wishcasters', 'downcasters' and kids that freak out over them...we will never get those users to stop ;p I'm more concerned with us arm-chair meteorologists having basically forecast contests and posting every possible run of every weather model available to them...only when there are active tropical cyclones that we can track, analyze the models and discuss the severity of its threats.

If there isn't anything to talk about or worry about, then by all means it should be a free-for-all...find something to talk about and the models are the number 1 place to start in that case lol.


if what you are saying should be the case, then why have invests in the 1st place? I mean the NHC is tracking 94L using pretty much every tool that they would use on a classified system. So why cant us "arm-chair mets", look at the forecast models on the invests too?
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Intensity with the NEW official track for 94L brings it to 108 knots.

I'll plot the official track, then I'm gone.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 95L is one of those "fake" invests, which is why it does not show up on the Navy site yet. More of an in-house invest.



Main Navy site has not been updating this morning, 95L is on the "backup site"
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Quoting Patrap:

That could be Isaac!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
From the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

"ENSO-neutral conditions continued during July 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near or greater than +0.5°C (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained elevated during the month (Fig. 3),
consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually
reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic
anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
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The new 95L floater will be shifted N and East to account for the renumber shortly.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
No I all ways thought you were a guy.Just something about it made it obvious.


I always reckoned a guy cause of the Boba Fett pic LOL
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Invest 95L is one of those "fake" invests, which is why it does not show up on the Navy site yet. More of an in-house invest.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good guess on the age range :P

Just tired on my birthday people WU mailing me and saying 'happy birthday to the very special birthday girl' LOL.


Did you ever get the feeling that maybe the well wishers were intentionally pulling your leg, knowing that its one of your pet peeves? :)
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343 Patrap: ...we're gonna need a Bigger Blog
551 aspectre: Nah, just an auto-ban for anyone who posts a model run showing more than 120hours whenever there is an active TropicalCyclone.
Irritating as heck scrolling through the wishcasters who're always glomming onto the "next TC" cuz the presentday storm is never NASTY enough.
577 Hurricanes101: ...an auto ban from the blog because of that? So what if someone posts a forecast model? If you don't like it, go do something else or put that person on ignore, but to suggest that someone get banned because of that is way more dumb than someone posting a forecast model.
423 Hurricanes101: It amazes me that no matter how many times we go through this, the runs of the forecast models still cause so much unneeded drama
I saw the 12Z GFS, it is certainly interesting. Could it happen? Absolutely, but it is one of many solutions that could. Freaking out over it like some are on here is not very constructive
94L looks pretty good, but to me it is clear that the Caribbean needs to watch this system FIRST, and then we can worry about where this may go after.
Also I would keep an eye on the remnants of Helene, much closer to home and could have an impact on the Gulf around the same time that 94L hits the Islands for the first time.
And fantasizing about the "next TropicalCyclone" is at best a waste of bandwidth when people are looking for information about active threats, or about once active and nearby&now-again near-active threats like Helene. Worse it buries real information under hypotheticals that might never occur.
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WOW, LOL.

North Atlantic

[an error occurred while processing this directive]


They just pulled the Old HELENE Floater and are re-racking for 95L. Stopped that last GIF of mine cold.
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.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


People make mistakes in their blogging career you went to prison and did your time man come back out into wunderground society we will give you a second chance lol


I made one comment that was a mistake. The rest of the points I made were very valid and turned out to be correct. I was not the only guilty one. I apologized for my mistake, though.

Anyway, it's in the past now. What's done is done. I'm still taking my time off from the blog. Will be good for me and everyone else.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I watch the blog, MOST use them for reference, its just those few idiots that freak out. So ignore those and move on, don't prevent others from posting what they want because of those few


I'm not even that worried about the so-called 'wishcasters', 'downcasters' and kids that freak out over them...we will never get those users to stop ;p I'm more concerned with us arm-chair meteorologists having basically forecast contests and posting every possible run of every weather model available to them...only when there are active tropical cyclones that we can track, analyze the models and discuss the severity of its threats.

If there isn't anything to talk about or worry about, then by all means it should be a free-for-all...find something to talk about and the models are the number 1 place to start in that case lol.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good guess on the age range :P

Just tired on my birthday people WU mailing me and saying 'happy birthday to the very special birthday girl' LOL.

I think they are yanking your chain. Everybody knows you're a guy.
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I suggested yesterday night that models would go back on board with 94L today.. 12Z EURO is also now back on board with a storm rather then a wave.

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Quoting justsouthofnola:



o ok actual new orleans
i live in a small town called lockport a little closer to the coast


used to go there for basketball tournaments. im in mandeville. btw
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good guess on the age range :P

Just tired on my birthday people WU mailing me and saying 'happy birthday to the very special birthday girl' LOL.
LMAO sorry to hear that but its obviously you are a boy.
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One can easily see 95L spitting out those Outflow Boundaries to the N and Neast, so it isnt going to do too much too fast seems.

I hope.



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StormChaser2007 is getting quite a bit of people to minus his post because I switched over to "Show average" and some of his posts don't show. Be sure to plus them.
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683. SLU
The 12z EURO initialised the system about 1.5 degrees further north than its 12z position so it could end up a little further south of the current track.

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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Fortunately though, roughly 90% of those who actually contract the West Nile virus either feel no symptoms at all or just mild "flu like" symptoms.

Of the remainder, only about 10% develop the serious complications from the disease (1% of total infections). WNV is not as dangerous as St. Louis encephalitis or Equine encephalitis, and especially the latter one is present to a limited extent during each summer season.
yes when i read the atricle from texas about 100 died from it, guess thats why they air sprayed the city
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39201
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
posting them models pass 144hrs is a lot of wasted space
not to mention a waste of time but hey thats only my opinion


good afternoon to the blog


exactly it is your opinion, but so what if people want to post it? I gives some insight into what the computer models are showing and in some cases they can be right

it surely is better than posting off-topic crap like we do sometimes and with 94L it is a forecast on an entity the NHC is high on and could have a big impact down the road.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I got this when I looked it up.

:Hurricane Gordon | Disturbance (Invest 94L)
Disturbance (Invest 95L)
Tropical Atlantic

Analysis & Forecasts
Our Products
Other Areas
About Us

Sunday, August 19, 2012 18:15 GMT
Current Storms - Archive - Historical Statistics - Help - Backup Site
Atlantic:
Hurricane Gordon - 85 knots, Disturbance (Invest 94L) - 25 knots, Disturbance (Invest 95L) - 20 knots
East Pacific:
Disturbance (Invest 96E) - 25 knots
Error:
We do not have model data for this storm yet.



I just tried as well and got the same thing.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile in the northern Atlantic...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyway, back to lurking I go. Just wanted to prove my point. Good day, everyone.

Oh, btw, since I was deemed a "wishcaster" and "jealous" the other night, I guess I should be happy that the GFS is now showing a Gulf system with 94L and happy that we have a new system, 95L, in the Gulf.

LMAO...


People make mistakes in their blogging career you went to prison and did your time man come back out into wunderground society we will give you a second chance lol
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Pressure back down 1 millibar.

AL, 94, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 146N, 384W, 25, 1010, DB
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Levi had some interesting observations to make about the tandem waves at 45-50 and 94L in his tidbit today.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Still calling for 15.So much for another dud El nino season..we sure are ahead of schedule...
Yep we already have 3 hurricane we are ahead of 2011 that end with 7.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


We kind of lucked out a bit... if that nearly-station front had stalled about 100 miles farther north, all of that tropical moisture could have caused much more substantial flooding in more sensitive areas.


True enough Scott,
Sorta lucky yesterday's rain came in 2 waves, late morn-midday (2.64") then again late aftn (1.83") here to give drainage a chance to catch up in that 4.47" I had...
Unlike the July 20th event when most of the 6.76" I recorded fell in less than 2 hrs - serious flash flooding then... LOL, in that event my yearly tally passed up all of last years total. Really think a chance to challenge all-time wettest year of 1991 if the 2012 pace continues... Certainly a top 5 wettest here...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyway, back to lurking I go. Just wanted to prove my point. Good day, everyone.

Oh, btw, since I was deemed a "wishcaster" and "jealous" the other night, I guess I should be happy that the GFS is now showing a Gulf system with 94L and happy that we have a new system, 95L, in the Gulf.

LMAO...
ROFLMAO.You got your wisxh.Lol.
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Quoting allancalderini:
I had always think you were a man maybe 18 to 23.


Good guess on the age range :P

Just tired on my birthday people WU mailing me and saying 'happy birthday to the very special birthday girl' LOL.
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Quoting justsouthofnola:



o ok actual new orleans
i live in a small town called lockport a little closer to the coast


Very familiar with LockPort. South Lafourche as well overall.


Used to run a lot of those Container Life Rafts to Bollinger for Sevin Marine in 2000.
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667. SLU
19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

That's enough to be called a TD with 30mph winds.
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Quoting AllyBama:
looks like the race is on to see which system gets to be named "Isaac"..

Maybe the blob in the Gulf will be Isaac and Joyce the one in the Atlantic. That would certainly be interesting. And imagine if future possible Joyce-to-be pulled a "Jeanne".
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Anyway, back to lurking I go. Just wanted to prove my point. Good day, everyone.

Oh, btw, since I was deemed a "wishcaster" and "jealous" the other night, I guess I should be happy that the GFS is now showing a Gulf system with 94L and happy that we have a new system, 95L, in the Gulf.

LMAO...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea. Also, I'm probably going to in the future stop using my WU account in favor of a new one. Rather tired of everyone thinking I'm a female.
I had always think you were a man maybe 18 to 23.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


That's a load of crap, an auto ban from the blog because of that? So what if someone posts a forecast model? If you don't like it, go do something else or put that person on ignore, but to suggest that someone get banned because of that is way more dumb then someone posting a forecast model.
posting them models pass 144hrs is a lot of wasted space
not to mention a waste of time but hey thats only my opinion


good afternoon to the blog
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.