94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's why I didn't leave you guys out on the East Coast and said, from there to TX. needs to keep an eye on it, since it looks like the threat is going up for impacts on the CONUS.


right now its anybody's system..unfortunately the islands may have the first impact
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Watching the Satellite this afternoon 94L has the potential to be a massive storm. I really hope for the best, but this is going to be a show one way or another. I hope as a local fisherman used to say, "tight lines and good fishing for 94L".
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The new GFS run is not good. it reminds me of Charlie.
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19/1745 UTC 22.7N 96.6W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic
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759. JLPR2
Quoting MadinBoy:
95L coming ??



You got a link to the site that produces those? I have never been able to find it. :\
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Maybe big one...



yeah


Zoom to about 2 or 3 times magnification
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Quoting Patrap:
Sugar cane can handle water from a large rain event.


It's the wind that devastates the Fields this time of year as they are not matured and to tall yet.

November ,late October is Harvest.


Thanks Pat!

Is blog going slow bandwidth wise for everybody?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
SHIPS IS AGGRESSIVE
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6166
Quoting StratoCumulus:
Slow down guys.....
At this time there isn't nothing called Invest 95L, just an observation area with 20% chance for developing.
Wish 4 rain in TX!!



yes there is


AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB



95L is all so on the back up navy site
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN






Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407


..Please read the "Disco" that I wrote..

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752. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't see it.


Really? I mean it's not as strong as 94L, but it has improved in the past days.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Ensemble Spreads

Most of the ensemble spreads are on the east coast instead of the GOM..very light yellow showing on the west coast of Florida



That's why I didn't leave you guys out on the East Coast and said, from there to TX. needs to keep an eye on it, since it looks like the threat is going up for impacts on the CONUS.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
95L coming ??

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has been at Code Red for the past 18 hours.
ah but caught your attention huh LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Here you go go Gro! 95L (It might not stay up long though)



40 statue miles (64 km) to the SSW (204°) from Tampico, México.


20 knots
Coordinates: 21.7N 98.1W
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Quoting Gearsts:
I cant belive you bring that up again. Please give it a rest because is getting a little annoying now. OMG im scared because it shows a storm over PR and the funny part is than it still shows a system over PR and im worried. You are a respected blogger here and i do respect you and like your forecast but please stop this childish argument.


You give it a rest because I apologized. I technically did not bring this subject back up, btw. It doesn't matter though.
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Quoting JLPR2:
It is interesting to note that the TW ahead of 94L is getting a better LLC as well.



Definitely a nicer spin getting going there.


no that one isnt even away from the itcz
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DiD anyone else know we have fake invest's? Why hasn't anyone told me this? Who am I to believe,if not the NHC?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting JLPR2:


Actually, we have had it since yesterday... XD
YES BUT NOW 70%
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Slow down guys.....
At this time there isn't nothing called Invest 95L, just an observation area with 20% chance for developing.
Wish 4 rain in TX!!
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Quoting LargoFl:
ATTENTION ..WE NOW HAVE THE RED CRAYON OUT.....


WE HAD RED CRAYON OUT FROM THIS MORNING AND YESTERDAY
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11949
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 120819120000
2012081912
14.4 323.5
15.1 315.3
100
14.6 323.5
191300
1208191300
1
WTNT21 KNGU 191300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 36.5W TO 15.1N 44.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 36.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS TRACKING
WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OF 05 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 80F TO 84F PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR REISSUED AS
REQUIRED BY 201300Z.//9412081606 106N 120W 15
9412081612 107N 136W 20
9412081618 109N 155W 20
9412081700 111N 173W 20
9412081706 113N 196W 20
9412081712 115N 219W 20
9412081718 117N 236W 20
9412081800 119N 251W 20
9412081806 121N 268W 25
9412081812 132N 287W 25
9412081818 138N 307W 25
9412081900 142N 326W 30
9412081906 144N 348W 30
9412081912 144N 364W 25

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Quoting JLPR2:
It is interesting to note that the TW ahead of 94L is getting a better LLC as well.



Definitely a nicer spin getting going there.

I don't see it.
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737. JLPR2
Quoting LargoFl:
ATTENTION ..WE NOW HAVE THE RED CRAYON OUT.....


Actually, we have had it since yesterday... XD
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Quoting JLPR2:
94L's vort at the 18z map is a huge step backwards when compared to the 15z.

15z:


18z:


Very elongated and sort of linked to the TW to the west.


Strange given that everything else seems to indicate otherwise, including the NHC.
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Quoting LargoFl:
ATTENTION ..WE NOW HAVE THE RED CRAYON OUT.....

It has been at Code Red for the past 18 hours.
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Quoting atmosweather:


It's not the analysis and the looking at model data, I really do understand and agree with you that these tools must be utilized, no one can argue with that ever. Its just the over-saturation that occurs on the blog when everyone posts every image at every time frame of each model run 4 times a day. And again, it only bothers me when there are active systems already out there. We all love to have storms to track but I just believe in tracking them one at a time and waiting until we have something else tangible to track and more reliable and consolidated data to use.


yea maybe, what we could do is possibly regulate to have only 1 person post the model run and maybe only show every 24 hours as supposed to every single plot
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12z Ensemble Spreads

Most of the ensemble spreads are on the east coast instead of the GOM..very light yellow showing on the west coast of Florida



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732. JLPR2
It is interesting to note that the TW ahead of 94L is getting a better LLC as well.



Definitely a nicer spin getting going there.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Intensity with the NEW official track for 94L brings it to 108 knots.

I'll plot the official track, then I'm gone.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI

send me link please
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11949
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 95L is one of those "fake" invests, which is why it does not show up on the Navy site yet. More of an in-house invest.



95L is a real invest which is 40 miles from Tampico, Mexico. They do not have it on all the sites as of yet. I have had it for about 2 hours now.


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ATTENTION ..WE NOW HAVE THE RED CRAYON OUT.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Sugar cane can handle water from a large rain event.


It's the wind that devastates the Fields this time of year as they are not matured and to tall yet.

November ,late October is Harvest.
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BTW Good Day To All From America's Left Coast :)
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No it wont become Helene, her circulation fell apart and the energy left behind is now 95L - if it were to develop it would get a new name

whether you like it or not lol
I think a lot of people don't.Lol.
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You mean we have incognito invest's?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
what website is that?



invest page
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Quoting cyclonekid:
961mb is about Category 3 status. If this were to pan out, it'd be the first major hurricane to make landfall in the USA in 7 years.


If one is using the SSS,that is a really poor system for determining Impact.

It was designed for wind loading on structures and dosen't take surge Levels into the formula.

Esp with a Large System Like IKE was.

I can assure you, the Impact from a 17 ft Storm Surge was Major.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


if what you are saying should be the case, then why have invests in the 1st place? I mean the NHC is tracking 94L using pretty much every tool that they would use on a classified system. So why cant us "arm-chair mets", look at the forecast models on the invests too?


It's not the analysis and the looking at model data, I really do understand and agree with you that these tools must be utilized, no one can argue with that ever. Its just the over-saturation that occurs on the blog when everyone posts every image at every time frame of each model run 4 times a day. And again, it only bothers me when there are active systems already out there. We all love to have storms to track but I just believe in tracking them one at a time and waiting until we have something else tangible to track and more reliable and consolidated data to use.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


And wow, knew we had a lot here, Houma washed right off that WU radar map!

Had 4.47" total yesterday... putting my current YTD total at 63.77", matching / exceeding expected normal yearly rainfall amount by Aug 18th...

And not counting another near .80" in the gauge from this morn's "light rains"...


Didn't know sugar cane liked that much rain?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting RTSplayer:


It should stay as Helene.

It would be doubly stupid to waste another name on this thing.


No it wont become Helene, her circulation fell apart and the energy left behind is now 95L - if it were to develop it would get a new name

whether you like it or not lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 95L is one of those "fake" invests, which is why it does not show up on the Navy site yet. More of an in-house invest.

Seeing it on the Navy site. Use the backup.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
95L on the navy site


what website is that?
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717. kwad
Quoting Chicklit:


That one's in the ICTZ so would have more trouble spinning up but I see your point, especially on recent satellite image.


Hurricane Tomas did develop around the ITCZ 2 years ago. I agree that this wave looks very impressive and appear to be in more moist condition.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
95L or should I say ex-Helene?



It should stay as Helene.

It would be doubly stupid to waste another name on this thing.
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Quoting JLPR2:
94L's vort at the 18z map is a huge step backwards when compared to the 15z.

15z:


18z:


Very elongated and sort of linked to the TW to the west.

Which makes no sense because buoy data and satellite imagery supports a tighter and stronger circulation.

I think you should just ignore CIMSS for now.
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all so noted we have 96E
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so one inch of rain on an acre creates 1.3 feet of water on the ground..folks if you live downstream from any rivers or streams etc along the gulf coast and i guess right up the southern east coast, watch out for flooding..remember sometimes it takes the rivers days later to overflow from all the runoff......pay attention to how many inches of rain you have received and are still receiving ok..stay safe out there please..one person said they had water at their doorstep already, so many more reports like that are going to be said here maybe this coming week..and..there IS the possibility as these rivers are cresting etc..we MIGHT have something tropical in the gulf..giving us MORE rain huh............looked at my local park Lake yesterday..just from the rains yesterday..it went up about 2 feet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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